Poule d'Essai des Poulains - Longchamp Sun May 13

Poule d'Essai des Poulains (the French equivalent of the 2000 Guineas) takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 13th May. Trends for the past 10 runnings below (http://tinyurl.com/dyj4gls):

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 4-8-41
American bred: 4-4-33
British bred: 2-3-27
French bred: 0-4-25
Other: 0-0-3
Irish & American bred horses have won 8 of last 10 from 57.3% of total runners
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (1 exception by Danzig who won all 3 of his race before an injury ended his career prematurely, other exception by Verglas, who was 2nd in Irish 2000 Guineas)
7 of 10 winners were by a sired who won or placed in a group 1 over 5F to 7F (1 exception was Danzig and other 2 sired had finished in first 2 in the Arc)
10 of 10 winners were born before 10th April

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won on one or both of their first 2 runs as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners had had between 4 and 8 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run once or twice that season
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time
9 of 10 winners ran at Longchamp last time out
6 of 10 winners had won a group race
6 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1 (other 4 were having first try in a group 1)
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
5 of 6 French trained winners had won at Longchamp over 7F or 8F (exception was 2nd in 7F group 1 and 3rd in 1M group 3 on two course starts)
All 3 Godolphin winners since 2000 ran in UAE Derby or UAE 2000 Guineas on previous start

Other Races
Prix De Fontainebleau winner (Dragon Pulse): 31173910 (3-2-8)
Prix Omnium winner ( Coup de Theatre): 2616616 (2-1-7)
Vintage Stakes winner (Chandlery): 12 (1-1-2)
Prix Jean Luc Lagardere winner (Dabirsim): 123d90 (1-1-5)
Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix de Cabourg winner (Dabirsim): 61 (1-0-2)
Prix Thomas Bryon winner (Abtaal): 61 (1-0-2)
Prix Machado winner (Veneto): 150 (1-0-3)
Prix Djebel winner (French Fifteen): 43020 (0-2-5)
Tetrarch Stakes winner (Takar): 42207 (0-2-5)
Prix RMC winner (Nutello): 3 (0-1-1)
Prix Herod winner (Vaniloquio): 204 (0-1-3)
Prix Morny winner (Dabirsim): 9 (0-0-1)
Prix Francois Boutin winner (Rockinante): 800 (0-0-3)
8 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Fontainebleau last time out, finishing 3114d6133
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 142
2 of 4 non-French-trained winners ran in the Dewhurst, finishing 21
2 of 4 non-French-trained winners ran in the Vintage Stakes, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 72
2 of 10 winners ran in the Criterium International, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners won the Prix Omnium II

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-4-23) has won 3 of the last 10 renewals and seen7 of his 23 make the frame.
Andre Fabre (2-3-10) trained the winner in 2003 & 2010 and has seen 5 of his 10 runners make the places in past 10 years.
Carlos Laffon-Parias (1-1-3) and Criquette Head-Maarek (1-1-6) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher since 2002.
Jean-Claude Rouget (0-2-7) has seen 4 of his 7 runners make the first 4 while Nicolas Clement (0-1-1) and Jim Bolger (0-1-2) have each saddled a placed finisher.
British based trainers (1-3-39) have won just 1 of the last 10 despite having represented over 30% of the total runners.
Irish trained runners (3-6-28) have also won 3 of the last 10, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record reads 0-2-5.

Draw
If you omit 2004 when there were only 7 runners the draw stats read:
Horses drawn 1 to 4: 3-9-36
Horses drawn 5 to 8: 3-4-36
Horses drawn 9 to 12: 2-2-32
Horses drawn 13 or higher: 1-3-18
8 of the 9 renewals with 10+ runners have been won by a horse drawn 9 or below.

Price
8 of 10 winners went off 10/1 or shorter & came from first 5 in the betting
No really strong trends on prices with the 5 winners between 2002 and 2006 all going off shorter than 7/1 and last 5 winners going off 33/1, 21.5/1, 7/1, 10/1 & 10/1.
Favourites (3-3-11) have won 3 runnings in the last 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 0.39.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Irish or American bred
•    Sire won a group 1 over 5F to 7F (or placed in an Arc)
•    Had 4 to 8 career starts, run once or twice this season
•    Won one or both of first two starts as a 2yo
•    Ran at Longchamp last time out
•    Run in past 50 days
•    Finished in first 4 in a group 1 (or having first try in a G1)
•    Won over 7F or 8F (ideally at Longchamp)
•    Finished in first 4 in Dewhurst and/or Vintage Stakes as a 2yo
•    Finished in first 3 in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, Prix Omnium or Criterium Int’l
•    Finished in first 3 in the Prix De Fontainebleau last time out
•    Drawn 9 or lower
•    Trained in France or by Aidan O’Brien