Horse Antepost
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will win the derby !!
Fill your boots, seriously i have heard this horse is flying at home. My money is already on at alot bigger odds but still 16.5 on betfair, 8-1 william hills, and getting shorter. will be 3-1 or 4-1 after winning the dee stakes, forget camelot
FRENCH FIFTHTEEN gave BONFIRE the form boast he needed.
Fill your boots, seriously i have heard this horse is flying at home. My money is already on at alot bigger odds but still 16.5 on betfair, 8-1 william hills, and getting shorter. will be 3-1 or 4-1 after winning the dee stakes, forget camelot
FRENCH FIFTHTEEN gave BONFIRE the form boast he needed.
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If it is still 16.5 here after being Pricewised, I'd be inclined to wait. And the Dee Stakes is rather a second division trial.
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I also like Bonfire and backed it after FF won the Djebel - however for Billys to go 8s is frankly ridiculous.
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expected a better run from cubanita today for a form boost
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Agreed ellis
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With the ground this bad, I actually hope they wait for York
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Cubanita virtually irrelevant re. Bonfire...he left debut form well behind when going close in the French Group 1...he's obv very classy but big stamina doubt for me @ 12f
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Agree Duncan, Bonfire looks like a 10f horse on pedigree at least as a 3yo.
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The extended 10 furlongs on soft at Chester could suit Bonfire. French Fifteen franked his form in the Guineas. I think that he's a nice bet at evens tomorrow. We'll see.
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non runner
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was cast in his box
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Official reason given as going.......?
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yeah
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corruptus in extremus
Date Joined: 11 Jan 06 Add contact | Send message When: 11 May 12 09:00 Joined: Date Joined: 11 Jan 06 | Topic/replies: 122 | Blogger: corruptus in extremus's blog was cast in his box So is this true or not? |
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Bonfire, Dream Tune, Ektihaam, Ernest Hemmingway, Fencing, Mandaen & Ptolemaic. #DanteField
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Ran a good solid trial today. Travelled very well, battled and whilst cannot be 100% sure I think he showed he will stay. Balding's horses always improve markedly for a run so as long as the space between the races isn't too short ( and I'd admit it was quite a hard race )he must have a good chance.
In truth however, I still think he will struggle against Camelot |
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Think both he and Ektihaam are clearly G1 horses but maybe 1m2f will be the trip.
We'll see. Might not be many lining up against Camelot at this rate |
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theres a forfeit stage today for derby/ oaks, cant really see parish hall running in irish 2000 and derby in space of a week myself, so agree with jair could be a very small derby field, cant see obrien going in with usual6/7 , just in case one beats his camelot, probably runs imp monarch and astrology imo
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Yeah looking at the market the field doesn't look particularly large. Seems to be a lot of horses that are not going to run. Maybe 10 line up looks almost certain to be less runners than last years 13 participants
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do ye think the purpose of ernst hemingway was to make it a tough race on whoever won or am i being too cynical? the way he was ridden looked as if he was pacemaker, with not a long time to derby a hard race for these would boost camelots chances.
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@monksland, its an interesting theory. The horse had actually been well backed for the derby before the race, think the Ballydoyle just thought they had more of a horse than it transpired. Gallops can only tell you so much about an animals resolution. Feel that Bonfire will have had adequate time to recover but your theory is an interesting one
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if Bonfire is good enough to win a Derby, then no way will the Dante have bottomed him.
Jimmy Fortune did not have to beat him up to win last week, imo, so sure he will be ok. Clocked a better timefigure when winning than Camelot did in the Guineas - a race which may not work out at all. Though that's not saying Camelot not capable of plenty better himself, all he can do is win, and only won two modestly run races at 2, so the Guineas was first proper test he had |
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I don't think it will bother bonfire either, was only his 3rd run, think he will improve actually. the O brien horse would have been backed for the derby on the basis it was his sole dante runner regardless of ability. Was just a strange ride for me if they thought he was good enough to win the race.
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Thought that Bonfire can only get shorter from here. The derby market for me is still not priced up correctly on here, so many doubtful runners skewing the book %.
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it will b a bigger field than u think obrien will run his 5 bonfire and main sequence will run marriners cross for goldolpin mickdam and thought worthy will run spencer rides mimimise risk and parish hall is a intended runner unless flopping badly at weekend rugged cross is a runner and kesampour is being backed on ere as if a runner even though trainer says no
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not so sure sin, that obrien will be mob handed, usually when hes got a top horse then goes with few runners, if as usual hasnt a clue goes in heavy handed like he will in the oaks imo
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caveleiro now a runner with the fit bird on board
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elisjohn absolutely correct re O'Brien Derby record.
Surprising if Coolmore fill the field with no-hopers if they aiming to make Camelot a triple crown winner 1998 - 3 runners 1999 - 1 2000 - 1 2001 - 1 (Galileo) 2002 - 2 (High Chapparal / Hawk Wing 1st / 2nd) 2003 - 4 (2nd) 2004 - 1 2005 - 4 2006 - 4 (3rd) 2007 - 8 (2nd) 2008 - 5 2009 - 6 (2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th) 2010 - 3 (2nd, 4th and 5th) 2011 - 4 (2nd and 4th) |
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34 runners in 7 years, unbelievable, thx for stats pedro
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Could be the type to go for the Eclipse
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Eclipse could have an interesting collection of horses this year, 3yo & 4yo.
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Maybe it was the occassion and we can forgive it, but yesterday simply didn't look like a Group 1 horse at the moment.
Whilst the Eclipse would be the right distance, cannot see him being ready for it. Be interesting to see how Ektiham fares today in France |
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Big .. Don't ask me why but I think this will go very close in the Arc. Last couple of furlongs in the Derby it seemed to be going sideways and up and down rather than forward with little momentum (appreciate it might have been knackered or simply not good enough but that is possibly a bad run on a funny old track and might not be representative of ability). Thought the 200 for peanuts somebody matched me was value.
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If Bonfire does turn up in the Eclipse then its an interesting runner. I have't completely given up hope that this horse will win another group 1. Would like the Dante form to be franked first though. I am happy for the timebeing to consider that it might not have enjoyed Epsom because before that its form was solid.
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Fallen, but Bonfire has yet to win a Group 1! No doubt a horse with talent who was carrying my money in the Derby but that race seemed to indicate to me he wasn't ready.
Interesting that Balding's other runner is fine to run at Ascot but Bonfire needs more time. It is possible however that he was rushed to get to the Derby and with a bit more space before his next race he will make the transition to Group 1 but he has an awful lot to prove |