Epsom Derby 6/4 Camelot

Noble Mission, anyone? Tractable while he sat and suffered when boxed in, then a fine turn of foot once he saw daylight.

The trouble is, we still have no evidence Noble Mission possesses the basic speed to win a Classic, such was the farcical pace.

Meanwhile, Kesampour held off all challengers in the Prix Greffulhe but it looked like hard work for a Derby prospect.

Noble Mission ran the fastest final furlong on Guineas day.
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-debate/simon-rowlands/sectional-debrief-newmarket-saturday-may-5-2012-070512-43.html

Cavaleiro, a son of 2006 Epsom hero Sir Percy, bids to book his place in the premier Classic when he lines up for the Betfred Derby Trial at Lingfield on Saturday.
http://betfred.chromaagency.com
Trainer Marcus Tregoning has earmarked the Group Three heat as the starting point in his three-year-old career for his promising colt, who is among 15 entries.

Aidan O'Brien can pick from Athens and Tower Rock, while the John Oxx-trained Call To Battle and Ken Condon's Macbeth make up the Irish brigade.

The John Gosden-trained Thought Worthy and Richard Hannon's Rougemont, second and third respectively behind O'Brien's Imperial Monarch in Sandown's Classic trial, could renew rivalry.

Rae Guest's Ed De Gas and David Lanigan's Main Sequence have unbeaten records to defend. while Andrew Balding has two good chances in Goldoni and Minimise Risk.

William Haggas' promising filly Vow is among 17 entries for the Betfred "The Bonus King" Oaks Trial on the same card.

The daughter of Motivator won on her debut at Newbury last month to earn quotes of around 16-1 for the Investec Oaks which Haggas won last year with Dancing Rain.

O'Brien has three possibles in Devotion, Soon and Twirl, while other interesting includes Sir Mark Prescott's Albamara, Ralph Beckett's Colima, Paul Cole's Gifted Girl and Richard Hannon's Misdemeanour.

Lingfield's Friday card will be run on the all-weather, as will Saturday's, featuring the Derby and Oaks trials, if turf course is found unfit. There is an inspection at 1pm today and Saturday's races will be reopened if card switches

Agree with that assessment Ramruma. Looked very impressive when he got daylight, but it was a dreadful race. I think he'd have won further if not getting boxed in.

Should pick up some nice races, but not good enough for the Derby imo.

Apollo not running Sunday,he is in the Dante though.
Whether he runs or not's a different matter.
Looked a nice prospect when he won his maiden.

dunno why some think camelot wont stay, obviously dont know his breeding, this horse was bred for one an half miles. and not for the guineas distance, the fact he is so well balanced in his breeding brought guineas success as a bonus for him....he'll win the derby,he was always going to do that...as i said guineas is only a bonus... and 6/4 ,might be good value right now..gl

Betfred Derby Trial Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £34,026 CH4
Standard 1m4f Number of runners: 8

1(3) 33211- CAVALEIRO 239  3 8-12 90 Richard Mullen Marcus Tregoning 86 109   
chestnut colt Sir Percy — Khibraat (Alhaarth (IRE))

Guy Brook

16Sep11    Nby 8GS C22y 9K  9-2 1/7 (nk Harvard N Yale 9-2) 11/1  Richard Mullen  84 * *
24Aug11    Chp 8GF C52yMd 2K  9-3 1/10 (3L Dont Take Me Alive 9-3) 2/7F  Hayley Turner  84 * *
04Aug11    San 8GS C52yMd 3K  9-3 2/9 (3¼L Martin Chuzzlewit 9-3) 9/4  Seb Sanders  — * *
22Jul11    Asc 7GS C32yMd 6K  9-3 3/11 (2¾L Caledonian Spring 9-3) 8/1  Pat Dobbs  — * *
26Jun11    Sal 7GF C42yMd 3K  9-3 3/8 (2¼L Shamrocked 9-3) 7/1  Tadhg O'Shea  — * *


2(7)111 ED DE GAS 17  3 8-12 97 Chris Catlin Rae Guest 90 101   
bay colt Peintre Celebre (USA) — Sambala (IRE) (Danehill Dancer (IRE))

R A Pegum

25Apr12    Cat 12Sft C33y 6K  8-12 1/5 (12L Bordoni 9-4) 2/1  Chris Catlin  81 * *
29Mar12    Wol 9St C53yHc 2K  9-7 1/6 (¾L Koko Loca 9-5) 5/2  Chris Catlin  75 * *
17Feb12    Lin 10St C63yMd 1K  9-3 1/7 (2L Gabrial The Hero 9-3) 33/1  Chris Catlin  — * *


3(8) 147-21 GOLDONI 17  3 8-12 100 David Probert Andrew Balding62 101 115   
chestnut gelding Dylan Thomas (IRE) — Lasso (Indian Ridge)

Mick and Janice Mariscotti

25Apr12    Eps 10Hy C23y 31K  8-13 1/6 (1¾L Mister Music 9-1) 15/2  David Probert  86 * *
01Apr12    Don 10Gd C33yHc 8K  9-5 2/11 (¾L Kingsdesire 9-7) 10/1  David Probert  83 * *
03Sep11    Hay 8GF C12yL 12K  9-0 7/7 (9L Caledonian Spring 9-0) 16/1  David Probert  87 * *
19Aug11    Sal 8GS C12yL 12K  8-13 4/7 (4½L Coupe De Ville 8-13) 5/1  David Probert  82 * *
29Jul11    Goo 7GF C22yHc 9K  8-5 1/15 (shd West Leake Hare 8-2) 11/2  David Probert  78 * *
14Jul11    Eps 7Gd C52yMd 3K  9-3 2/12 (nse Repeater 9-3) 5/1  David Probert  — * *


4(5) 61-3 HALLING´S QUEST 22  3 8-12 88 Kieren Fallon Hughie Morrison50 107 102   
bay colt Halling (USA) — Capriolla (In The Wings)

The Fairy Story Partnership

20Apr12    Nby 10Sft C33y 6K  8-13 3/4 (13L Ektihaam 9-3) 7/1  Darryll Holland  — * *
24Oct11    Sth 8St C62yMd 1K  9-3 1/6 (8L Third Half 9-3) 6/5F  Robert Havlin  — * *
28Sep11    Sal 8Sft C42yMd 4K  9-3 6/14 (9¼L Bonfire 9-3) 28/1  George Baker  — * *


5(1) 834-23 HAZAZ 24  3 8-12 96 Neil Callan Clive Brittain 57 88 92   
bay colt Dubawi (IRE) — Treble Seven (USA) (Fusaichi Pegasus (USA))

Saeed Manana

18Apr12    Nmk 7Gd C13yHcL 18K  8-11 3/7 (1¾L Telwaar 8-11) 14/1  Brett Doyle  100 * *
24Mar12    Lin 8St C5Md 3K  8-10 2/6 (6L Forgotten Hero 8-10) 6/4  Brett Doyle  100 * *
29Oct11    Nmk 10Gd C32y 7K  9-0 4/8 (7¾L Mojave 9-0) 4/1  Tom Queally  101 * *
22Oct11    Nby 7GF C12yG3 19K  8-12 3/14 (2¼L Tell Dad 8-12) 40/1  Seb Sanders  89 * *
01Oct11    Nmk 7GF C22y 270K  9-3 8/16 (6¼L Coupe De Ville 9-3) 33/1  Tom McLaughlin  86 * *
17Sep11    Nmk 7GF C22y 108K  8-13 10/16 (8½L Tell Dad 8-7) 12/1  Tom Queally  — * *


6(4) 11-1 MAIN SEQUENCE 23  3 8-12 98 Ted Durcan David Lanigan 105 114   
chestnut colt Aldebaran (USA) — Ikat (IRE) (Pivotal)

Niarchos Family

19Apr12    Nmk 10Gd C33yHc 9K  9-6 1/8 (½L Ahzeemah 8-11) 2/1F  Ted Durcan  89 * *
19Oct11    Nmk 9Gd C42yHc 3K  9-6 1/12 (3¼L Open Water 9-6) 7/2F  Ted Durcan  79 * *
15Sep11    Yar 8Gd C52yMd 3K  9-3 1/12 (1¼L Almuftarris 9-3) 50/1  George Baker  — * *


7(6) 513-13 ROUGEMONT 14  3 8-12 105 Pat Dobbs Richard Hannon54 116 122   
bay colt Montjeu (IRE) — Spritza (IRE) (Spectrum (IRE))

Mrs J Wood

28Apr12    San 10Hy C13yG3 31K  9-0 3/4 (11L Imperial Monarch 9-0) 11/4  Ryan Moore  105 * *
19Apr12    Nmk 10GS C23y 135K  9-3 1/14 (½L Mickdaam 9-3) 10/1  Pat Dobbs  85 * *
29Oct11    Nmk 10Gd C32y 7K  9-3 3/8 (6¾L Mojave 9-0) 6/1  Richard Hughes  85 * *
04Oct11    Lei 10GF C32y 5K  8-13 1/3 (hd Repeater 8-13) 13/8  Richard Hughes  80 * *
13Aug11    Nby 7Gd C12yL 12K  9-0 5/7 (12½L Fencing 9-0) 5/2  Richard Hughes  — * *
08Jul11    Nmk 7Gd C42yMd 6K  9-3 1/14 (2L Sports Section 9-3) 25/1  Jimmy Fortune  — * *


8(2) 2-2 SHANTARAM 24  3 8-12 — William Buick John Gosden63 93 112   
bay colt Galileo (IRE) — All´s Forgotten (USA) (Darshaan)

Lady Bamford

18Apr12    Nmk 10Gd C43yMd 4K  9-3 2/11 (nse Model Pupil 9-3) 5/4F  William Buick  — * *
09Sep11    San 8Gd C52yMd 3K  9-3 2/13 (nse Emmuska 8-12) 11/2  Robert Havlin  — * *

Oxx keeps faith in Born to Sea

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Trainer John Oxx will resist the temptation to bring Born To Sea back in distance after he finished 12th in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday.

Famous more for being a half-brother to Sea The Stars, more than for his exploits on the track so far, he was beaten 10 lengths behind Camelot.

He was not given a hard time by Johnny Murtagh in the hope there are better days to come.

“The race was a bit of a non-event for him he just pulled too hard, even when the pace increased in the second furlong he still didn’t drop the bit,” said Oxx.

“He basically took off for three and a half to three furlongs, and that was that. Johnny wasn’t hard on him after that so it was a non-event, I’m afraid. If he settles better in future I’m sure he’ll run a good race.

“I think we’ll stick around the mile and if we do bring him back, it will only be by a furlong.”


Read more: http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/sport/oxx-keeps-faith-in-born-to-s...

A thrilling finish to a thrilling race as Mickdaam just holds off the fast-finishing Model Pupil in a photo-finish to the Group 3 Chester Vase. Paddy Power go 33-1 (from 50) about Mickdaam (needs supplementing) for the Derby

Mickdaam does not need supplementing.

Glad it was a thrilling race anyway, AD....yesterday it was ONLY 5 runners, moan, groan, moan, yawn.

Racing Post ‏ @Racing_Post

Akeed Mofeed will miss the Investec Derby to be aimed at the Irish equivalent.

Astrology looks a star in the making

16/1 Astrology for The Derby

irishfield.ie

Trainer Aidan O’Brien today paraded Investec Derby favourite Camelot at a media morning organised by Epsom Downs Racecourse and Investec at his Ballydoyle Stable in County Tipperary and is counting down the days until the premier Classic on Saturday, June 2. O’Brien is chasing a third Investec Derby victory following success with Galileo (2001) and High Chaparral (2002).

O’Brien’s 18-year-old son Joseph will be in the saddle again at Epsom Downs and the trainer believes the Montjeu colt has benefited from his victory in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas.

Camelot is currently the 4/5 favourite for the Investec Derby with William Hill, Official Betting Partner of the 2012 Investec Derby Festival.

“The Investec Derby is the obvious race for Camelot and hopefully when the time comes he will be there in good shape. We are not going to do an awful lot between now and then, we will just let him go naturally,” said Aidan O’Brien.

“We think he learned a lot in the Guineas, he settled and ran through the gaps and had to fight. Joseph wanted to teach him a bit because we never had to ask him a lot at two, he won both his races very easily and hadn’t been off the bridle or shown the stick or anything like that.

“You don’t know about Epsom until you go there - you worry about everything including the day, the atmosphere and going to the start. He behaved beautifully at the Guineas and is very relaxed and calm but, as you would expect with a horse with that explosive burst of speed, he does have a lot of nervous energy in there.

“He kept on going when he was pulling up at Newmarket and I’ve not seen anything to suggest he wouldn’t get further.

“I don’t want to blow the horse up in any way but everyone can see he’s a very good looking and good actioned horse and those horses are often too good to be true. The Investec Derby is one of those things I wouldn’t even dream about because I’d be afraid to.”

Speaking about the fact his Jospeh is set to ride Camelot, the trainer added: “It’s been great for all of us, from the time Joseph has been able to walk he’s been in the middle of it all here - both the good days and the bad days. He’s a massive help for us and before he could ride out he was going in the Jeep with us.”

O’Brien is still finalising his team for the Investec Derby and he added: “We’ve got a lot of different options there with the likes of Astrology, Imperial Monarch, maiden winners and Ernest Hemingway, who is a beautiful big horse. He will go for the Dante on Thursday if the ground is good or better but it is doubtful he’d go to Epsom if he misses York. Whether the boys would let all of them go to Epsom, I don’t know.

“We haven’t won the Investec Derby in a number of years so we are very used to coming home every year very humbled. All these horses are bred and reared for Epsom and the Derby is the race that shapes the breed.”

O’Brien could have three representatives in the Investec Oaks and added: “Maybe and Kissed will go straight for Epsom and we could look at the race for Was, who we might run at Naas on Thursday, as well. Wading didn’t come right in the spring and I don’t want to force her so I’d be surprised if she makes Epsom.”

Read Ryan McElligott's horse-by-horse report from Ballydoyle in The Irish Field next Saturday. Online from 10.30pm Friday

LATEST BETTING FROM WILLIAM HILL, OFFICIAL BETTING PARTNER OF THE 2012 INVESTEC DERBY FESTIVAL

Investec Derby: 4/5 Camelot; 8/1 Bonfire; 12/1 Mandaean; 16/1 Imperial Monarch, Kesampour, Parish Hall; 20/1 Astrology, Main Sequence; 25/1 Ektihaam, Encke, Ernest Hemingway, Fencing, Noble Mission, Shantaram, Swedish Sailor; 33/1 Apollo, Athens, Mariner's Cross, Michelangelo, Mickdaam, Mighty Ambition, Rougemont, Top Offer, Wrote, Wrotham Heath, 40/1 BAR (EW ¼ 1,2,3)

Investec Oaks: 3/1 Kissed, Maybe; 6/1 Vow; 8/1 Homecoming Queen, Kailani (needs to be supplemented); 10/1 The Fugue, Wading; 14/1 Twirl, Up, 16/1 Colima; 20/1 Firdaws, Was; 25/1 Discourse; 33/1 Betterbetterbetter, Eternal Bounty, Fragonard, Hepworth, Lacily, Lyric Of Light, Reckoning; 40/1 BAR (EW ¼ 1,2,3

I can't be bothered with the Oaks or Derby. Basically everyone has a horse that might run, or might not run funnily enough. ****ing boring ZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzz.

What a strange thread to reply to if you are of that opinion?

Oddly enough, i thought making a comment about the derby on a derby thread was the right idea. I don't think people should stop talking about transparency. It effected the 2000 guineas as it has turned out to be the most under whelming 2000 guineas in recent times. I think as the same outfit have more than 10 horses amongst the favourites for both classics, then this race is also heading to damp squidsville. Another British classic being ruined by a group of Irish ignoramices.

Aidan O'Brien's Ernest Hemingway will not run in Derby trial on soft ground

• Epsom hope scheduled to run at York on Thursday
• Tower Rock also on course to run in the Classic

Chris Cook at Ballydoyle  guardian.co.uk,


The Derby favourite, Camelot, clearly dominates the thoughts of his trainer, Aidan O'Brien, who spoke at length about the colt during a media event at his stables here in County Tipperary, arranged by the Derby sponsor, Investec. Those thoughts are recorded here .

However, O'Brien had time for a quick discussion of some of his other horses and this is what he had to say.

Ernest Hemingway Will run in the Dante at York on Thursday if the going is good, which seems unlikely at present. "If it's on the soft side, he won't run," said O'Brien, adding that that would also mean the horse was less likely to run in the Derby, as he would be short of experience. "He's a beautiful-moving horse and we wouldn't want to run him in soft ground. If we got nice ground, we'd love to run."

Tower Rock Outbattled by Light Heavy in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown on Sunday but may still take his chance in the Epsom Classic. "He's progressed well and I'd say would progress again. He's very like his dad [Dylan Thomas]. He's a big horse and he could be very much a possible for Epsom."

Wrote A disappointing third in the Derrinstown, for which he was the 8-13 favourite, Wrote might now be returned to a mile for the Irish Guineas. The trainer felt the horse lacked the necessary stamina for Sunday's 10-furlong race, so the Derby does not seem an option.

Other horses entered in the Derby O'Brien has 25 horses still entered in the Derby and was reluctant to suggest at this stage that any of them did not belong in the field. "All these horses are bred and reared to turn up in the Derby," he said. "The Derby is the race that distinguishes the breed, so it's very hard, if they're well, not to let them take their chance. But that won't be my decision. They're all on that Derby road at the moment and, closer to the time, the boys [the partners in the Coolmore bloodstock operation] will decide that."

Daddy Long Legs Even allowing for the ambitious nature of a tilt at the Kentucky Derby, this colt's performance was disappointing as he was pulled up in the straight when tailed off. "He was quick away but still ran disappointing so we put it down that he just didn't handle the dirt and we're going to bring him back to the grass. He has the option of the Irish Guineas or the Epsom Derby. He's a hardy horse who comes out of his races very well and seems to be fine so far." Note that he would have to be supplemented for the Derby.

Maybe The favourite for the Oaks, she was a slightly disappointing third in the 1,000 Guineas, won with an astonishing performance from the front by her less fancied stablemate, Homecoming Queen. O'Brien said: "She raced a little bit lazy all the way through the Guineas," but added that he was pleased to see she still finished her race off well. She did a half-speed piece of work around O'Brien's Tattenham Corner replica, led by Frontier, and travelled well. By contrast the blinkered lead horse required constant encouragement to set an adequate pace.

Kissed The second-favourite for the Oaks and a three-parts sister to last year's Derby winner, Pour Moi, she is unbeaten in two starts, including a Listed race at Navan last time. O'Brien accepted that her lack of experience is a concern. He noted in particular that she had almost no experience of tracking horses, having been led only by one on her debut and then making all the running on her second start when the plan had been to hold her up. "Some horses don't need a lot of experience because they're naturally intelligent enough to work it out quick and some need a lot of experience," O'Brien said. "She never came across as a stupid filly to us but you never know until you go there and Epsom is testing." Kissed also had a half-speed spin around O'Brien's replica of Tattenham Corner and also travelled well behind her lead horse, Cabin.

Twirl Will run in the Musidora, an Oaks trial, at York on Wednesday, whatever the going. "She's in good form. We think she has progressed from her first run."

Was This filly is expected to run in an Oaks trial at Naas on Wednesday and could then go to Epsom. "She's good. She was very well and we had her very forward and, would you believe, one day, the horse that was making the running for her, the shoe came off and cut her over the knee. That's what delayed her, she had to get four or five stitches over her knee. But she's back perfect again."

Wading O'Brien reports she is unlikely to be ready for the Epsom Oaks and will be aimed instead at the Irish equivalent. "When all the other fillies were there [fit and ready for the Oaks], you're kind of looking for an excuse to ease off some of them."

Homecoming Queen Having mimicked Frankel in making all to win the 1,000 Guineas recently, she will now try to follow up in the Irish equivalent. "We were very slow learning with her. It took six or seven runs to win and, when she won her nursery, she won very easy."

Up This filly was a running-on second in the French 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, beaten a length by the odds-on Beauty Parlour. "Up ran very well, I'm very happy with her, from a bad draw. We were thinking of maybe looking at the French Oaks with her."

After A running-on fourth in the French 1,000 Guineas, she may now get her chance in the Irish equivalent.

Power Finished 17th of 18 in Camelot's Guineas, when O'Brien feels he was unable to handle the ground. He will now be aimed at either the Greenlands Stakes or the Irish 2,000 Guineas, both taking place on 26 May at The Curragh.

Nephrite The three-year-old colt, beaten in a Guineas trial on his reappearance, will probably now be aimed at sprint races. "I just thought he didn't stay," O'Brien said of his last run, over a mile. He cited Mozart and Stravinsky as other horses he has trained who became top sprinters after failing to stay a mile. He might take in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot.

So You Think O'Brien said the horse had been rested since his reappearance defeat when fourth in the Dubai World Cup and would not be rushed back into action for the Lockinge this weekend, when O'Brien's Excelebration will clash with Frankel. So You Think will be aimed instead at the Tattersalls Gold Cup at The Curragh on 27 May.

Starspangledbanner The flashy chestnut was a top sprinter two years ago, when he joined O'Brien's yard from Australia. Having won the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot and Newmarket's July Cup, he was sent to stud but has now been returned to training after fertility problems were discovered. "He's only just cantering a couple of days," the trainer said. Asked if the horse could be ready for a run at Royal Ascot in mid-June, he replied: "It'll be tough but you never know. He hasn't been lying down for the last two years. All his enthusiasm is still there, anyway."

Two-year-olds O'Brien reports that his two-year-olds were coughing for a period of about six weeks from February and are consequently "a bit behind. They've been fine for the last month. We probably need to be getting them out this month. We've a good few entered this week. Hopefully if there's any Royal Ascot two-year-olds in there, they'll be in time now."

Bonfire wins but didn't look a Derby winning win.

bar camelot this looks like a shocking derby field with p hall doubtful as well imo, camelot could well start 4/7

a ballydoyle 1-2-3

Cornelius Lysaght ‏@CorneliusRacing
#Newbury: confirmation #Frankel brother Noble Mission is out of the #EpsomDerby reckoning from Sir Henry Cecil

Parish hall looks very short in comparison to 1) his form last year I am not sure about, 2) hasn't had a run before the derby, 3) no idea about whether he has trained on. Assumption would be that he has but real worry that he hasn't been seen since his two year old career. Taking a significant step-up in trip which is somewhat of an unknown

agree bit of a mystery

parish hall is an intended runner in the irish 2000 next week, and a decision to run in the derby is to be made afterwards, that what i read during the last week, i definetly dont see him running in both, i think theyll give the derby a miss

If he doesn't go then the pricing for the derby on betfair is all wrong. Very strange market ante-post.

Wonder if Bolger will rule out Parish Hall then forget to take him out

5 day decs for irish 2000 midday today, see if hes still  in   , definetly wont run in both imo

5 day decs for irish 2000 midday today, see if hes still  in   , definetly wont run in both imo

How many runners in the derby? I was thinking maybe 11/12.

Parish Hall OUT

Bolger to supplement Light Heavy a possibility?

On my knees for that one, FFT.

Stick 'im in, Jimbo, imo.

Just think it's a possibility now PH is a definite NR (definite by anyone's standards but Jim I guess )

No reason why he shouldn't run for mine, Jim likes to send his best to Epsom, not really had one good enough since New Approach/Lush Lashes (has run a couple in them I know)and LH already won a traditionally good Derby trial

no form boost in the irish 2000 for camelot there, ok power won , but cant take that as a boost,.

Why not elisjohn? Camelot is a better horse than Power.
Its a bonus for him (Camelot) that Parish Hall is out as well.
Sorry for his anti-p backers tho, tough luck.
Camelot looks a shoe-in for the Derby nxt Sat, provided he handles that crazy track (Epsom) Roll on the Derby & i hope an impressive Camelot Victory (16s ew anti-p)
Go on my Son!!!

how do you know that camelot better than power ?,power miles in front of hermival, t major, camelot wasnt.

Thats my view mate, & prob with most punters, i would like to think.
Power was a top 2yo and has returned to his best 2day.
If u could choose to own 1 of them, who would u have??

yes id choose camelot.

David Lanigan refuses to stoke the hype over Derby dark horse

By Marcus Armytage telegraph.co.uk
26 May 2012

As the youngest trainer with a runner in Saturday’s Investec Derby, David Lanigan could be excused for getting carried away on a tide of excitement in the annual build-up to the world’s most important flat race.

After all, his chestnut colt, the tail-swishing Lingfield Trial winner Main Sequence, is unbeaten in four starts. Along with the red-hot favourite Camelot, he is one of the few horses who will go into this year’s race with an unblemished record.

But Lanigan, 36, who has made a flying start to his first season in Lambourn with a 30 per cent winners-to-runners ratio, confesses to being a “born pessimist”. His view is that most horses were put on this earth with the sole purpose of making idiots of their trainers and, if anyone is going to hype the colt and set him up for a metaphorical fall, it is certainly not his trainer.

“The horse has put himself in the race, all we can do is get him there in the best shape,” he said during a tour of afternoon stables at Kingsdown, the beautifully restored yard from where the 50-1 Snow Knight upset that year’s Guineas winner, Nonoalco, to win the 1974 Derby.

“Racing’s the best leveller in the world, please God we get there, and then we can see what happens,” he added. “He’s won a legitimate trial, proved he stays a mile and a half and it’s great to have a runner in the race for the Niarchos family but my feeling is that Camelot is the one to beat.”

The trainer is the son of the respected Irish vet Bob Lanigan, who owns Tullamaine Castle Stud in Tipperary but was general manager of Coolmore for 25 years. As a schoolboy and at college that was a handy connection. Lanigan rode out for Vincent O’Brien, John Oxx and Edward O’Grady.

“I loved it,” he said. “If my father hadn’t pulled me out of it and sent me to America I’d probably still be with Edward, one tooth left in my head, looking forward to the next point-to-point on Sunday. Training always scared me a bit because you see so many fail at it.”

A short stint in Kentucky turned into five years before he returned to join Henry Cecil. People were telling Lanigan not to go because Cecil’s career seemed to be in an interminable decline.

But, for the first two of his five years there and as the numbers in the yard plummeted to only 40, Cecil left no stone unturned and no expert unasked in his quest to find the source of a constant bug that seemed to ail his string.

Contrary to the advice he had been given, there never was a better time to learn from the master. When Lanigan decided to set up by himself, Light Shift had won the Oaks and Cecil was already halfway back up the mountain.

“He taught me to always take the positive out of a situation: he knew what people were saying behind his back,” Lanigan recalled. And patience. Even then he was prepared to give his horses time.”

After four seasons in Newmarket, Lanigan’s next big decision was to accept Bjorn Nielsen’s invitation to train at Kingsdown. “I was renting a nice yard in Newmarket but it had nothing like the facilities this place has,” explained Lanigan, whose wife and secretary, Amy, is expecting their second child a few days after the Derby.

To win a Derby in his first season at Kingsdown would be almost beyond the realms of fantasy but plenty of experts are putting up Main Sequence as this year’s Derby dark horse. His route there has not been exactly conventional – winning a handicap and, then, the first ever Derby trial run on the all-weather – but he is battle-hardened and the upper reaches of his ability remain, as yet, unexplored.

Looks a 3 horse race to me - Camelot and Bonfire now too short to back but assuming he's running (and he keeps drifting out to 25/1 and then coming back to 16/1) Imperial Monarch is the only other horse to my eyes who has the potential (on breeding and form) to win the race.

In fact at 18/1 on here he looks massively overpriced - if he were a confirmed runner I'd have him at about 8/1.

Main Sequence surely can't be good enough unless it's a the worst Derby on record (which I admit is entirely possible).
Mind you I said the same thing about last years Arc winner not having  a hope in hell so I can get it wrong occasionally.

@Unclepuncle, agree looks a very weak derby in terms of number of real chances. Main sequence to me had the look of bullet train a few years back, can't see him being good enough to win the derby. Agree that IM is the likely shortner if he is a confirmed runner, still so many potential non-runners in the market. Hopefully at 12pm today things will be a little clearer.

thing is the french derby is sunday, and looking at the race the only real chances coolmore have in it are the main 3 at epsom, i presume coolmore would want to have a runner there with a real chance so i must presume that either astrology or im will head there.

just put this up on h/ racing forum, how was oaks decs saturday, and the derby is today?

cause they dont work on a sunday

that what i thought to start with, but like jimnast said on the other thread, tuesday decs are made sundays

Camelot, Bonfire, Main Sequence, Astrology, Imperial Monarch, Thoughtworthy, Mickdaam, Rugged Cross, Father Of Snce, Twer Rck, Minimise Risk

....and Cavaleiro.

Knew there was one missin

With 5 of them Ballydoyle the Derby could have less than 10 runners.

Field of 12 set to contest Investec Derby at @EpsomRacecourse at 6-day entry stage. Camelot one of 5 Aidan O'Brien entries.

Yep, I think we'd sorted that out already, AD!

Decs would be handy if you know them, though....

Investec Derby (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo) BBC1
Good To Firm 1m4f10y


1  133-1  Astrology 22  3 9-0 A P O´Brien 48   —  104 129
bay colt Galileo (IRE) — Ask For The Moon (FR) (Dr Fong (USA))

Derrick Smith
 
11May12    Chs 10Sft C13yG3 31K  8-12 1/4 (11L Oxford Charley 8-12) 11/10F  J P O'Brien  108 * *
08Oct11    Nmk 8Gd C12yG3 19K  9-0 3/8 (2¼L Rockinante 9-0) 11/8F  J P O'Brien  — * *
20Aug11    Cur 7Gd 2yG2 49K  9-1 3/8 (2½L Dragon Pulse 9-1) 5/1  David McCabe  — * *
11Aug11    Leo 8Gd 2y 10K  9-0 1/9 (2L Canaille 9-0) 10/1  David McCabe  — * *


2  13-1  Bonfire 16  3 9-0 Andrew Balding 61  Jimmy Fortune  —  124 133
bay colt Manduro (GER) — Night Frolic (Night Shift (USA))

Highclere Thoroughbred Racing-Pocahontas

17May12    Yor 10Gd C13yG2 85K  9-0 1/7 (¾L Ektihaam 9-0) 3/1  Jimmy Fortune  108 * *
30Oct11    Sai 8VSft 2yG1 123K  9-0 3/11 (1¾L French Fifteen 9-0) 13/2  Jimmy Fortune  — * *
28Sep11    Sal 8Sft C42yMd 4K  9-3 1/14 (2L Cubanita 8-12) 7/2F  David Probert  — * *

3  11-1  Camelot 28  3 9-0 A P O´Brien 48   —  123 136
bay colt Montjeu (IRE) — Tarfah (USA) (Kingmambo (USA))

D Smith, Mrs J Magnier, M Tabor

05May12    Nmk 8GS C13yG1 213K  9-0 1/18 (nk French Fifteen 9-0) 15/8F  J P O'Brien  119 * *
22Oct11    Don 8Gd C12yG1 131K  9-0 1/5 (2¼L Zip Top 9-0) 10/11F  J P O'Brien  — * *
14Jul11    Leo 8Gd 2y 10K  9-1 1/5 (2L All Approved 9-3) 1/3F  J P O'Brien  — * *


4  3211-3  Cavaleiro 21  3 9-0 Marcus Tregoning 83  Hayley Turner  —  84 110
chestnut colt Sir Percy — Khibraat (Alhaarth (IRE))

Guy Brook

12May12    Lin 12St C13yG3 34K  8-12 3/8 (6¾L Main Sequence 8-12) 20/1  Richard Mullen  90 * *
16Sep11    Nby 8GS C22y 9K  9-2 1/7 (nk Harvard N Yale 9-2) 11/1  Richard Mullen  84 * *
24Aug11    Chp 8GF C52yMd 2K  9-3 1/10 (3L Dont Take Me Alive 9-3) 2/7F  Hayley Turner  84 * *
04Aug11    San 8GS C52yMd 3K  9-3 2/9 (3¼L Martin Chuzzlewit 9-3) 9/4  Seb Sanders  — * *
22Jul11    Asc 7GS C32yMd 6K  9-3 3/11 (2¾L Caledonian Spring 9-3) 8/1  Pat Dobbs  — * *
26Jun11    Sal 7GF C42yMd 3K  9-3 3/8 (2¼L Shamrocked 9-3) 7/1  Tadhg O'Shea  — * *


5  51  Father Of Science 24  3 9-0 A P O´Brien 48   —  86 102
bay colt Galileo (IRE) — Kasora (IRE) (Darshaan)

Mrs John Magnier

09May12    Chs 10Sft C43yMd 6K  9-3 1/13 (2¾L Star For Life 9-3) 5/2F  J P O'Brien  — * *
29Apr12    Nav 10Y/Sft 3y 5K  9-5 5/11 (11½L Karatash 9-5) 9/4F  J P O'Brien  — * *


6  1-1  Imperial Monarch 35  3 9-0 A P O´Brien 48   —  61 127
bay colt Galileo (IRE) — Ionian Sea (Slip Anchor)

Mrs John Magnier, M Tabor & D Smith

28Apr12    San 10Hy C13yG3 31K  9-0 1/4 (1¾L Thought Worthy 9-0) 11/8F  J P O'Brien  — * *
10Sep11    Cur 8Y/Sft 2y 8K  9-0 1/19 (3½L Azamata 9-0) 6/1  Seamie Heffernan  — * *


7  11-11  Main Sequence 21   3 9-0 David Lanigan 50 Ted Durcan  —  103 112
chestnut colt Aldebaran (USA) — Ikat (IRE) (Pivotal)

Niarchos Family

12May12    Lin 12St C13yG3 34K  8-12 1/8 (¾L Shantaram 8-12) 3/1  Ted Durcan  98 * *
19Apr12    Nmk 10Gd C33yHc 9K  9-6 1/8 (½L Ahzeemah 8-11) 2/1F  Ted Durcan  89 * *
19Oct11    Nmk 9Gd C42yHc 3K  9-6 1/12 (3¼L Open Water 9-6) 7/2F  Ted Durcan  79 * *
15Sep11    Yar 8Gd C52yMd 3K  9-3 1/12 (1¼L Almuftarris 9-3) 50/1  George Baker  — * *

8 621421  Mickdaam 23   3 9-0 Richard Fahey 45   —  113 126
bay colt Dubawi (IRE) — Ribot´s Guest (IRE) (Be My Guest (USA))

Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Al Maktoum

10May12    Chs 12Sft C13yG3 31K  8-12 1/5 (nse Model Pupil 8-12) 8/1  Tony Hamilton  104 * *
19Apr12    Nmk 10GS C23y 135K  9-3 2/14 (½L Rougemont 9-3) 5/1  Jamie Spencer  112 * *
31Mar12    Mey 10St 3yG2 774K  8-9 4/14 (3¼L Daddy Long Legs 8-9) 9/2  Christophe Soumillon  112 * *
10Mar12    Mey 10St 3yL 96K  8-9 1/13 (2¼L Surfer 8-8) 6/4F  Christophe Soumillon  109 * *
09Feb12    Mey 8St 3yG3 96K  8-9 2/9 (¼L Kinglet 8-9) 7/1  Christophe Soumillon  100 * *
12Jan12    Mey 7St 3y 19K  8-9 6/14 (3L Dark Matter 9-4) 7/1  Christophe Soumillon  80 * *

9  215  Minimise Risk 23  3 9-0 Andrew Balding 61  Jamie Spencer  —  91 114
bay colt Galileo (IRE) — Dararita (IRE) (Halo (USA))

Mrs Fitri Hay

10May12    Chs 12Sft C13yG3 31K  8-12 5/5 (7¼L Mickdaam 8-12) 8/1  Jamie Spencer  92 * *
21Apr12    Nby 11Sft C43yMd 5K  9-3 1/9 (hd Uriah Heep 9-3) 15/8F  Jamie Spencer  — * *
31Mar12    Don 10Gd C53yMd 2K  9-3 2/13 (1¼L Zaina 8-12) 9/1  Jimmy Fortune  — * *


10  51-3  Rugged Cross 14  3 9-0 Henry Candy 75 Dane O'Neill  —  104 120
bay colt Cape Cross (IRE) — Lunda (IRE) (Soviet Star (USA))

Thomas Barr

19May12    Nmk 10GF C13yL 18K  9-0 3/5 (1L Thought Worthy 9-0) 9/2  Dane O'Neill  98 * *
19Aug11    Yor 7GS C22yMd 16K  9-3 1/17 (2½L Storming Bernard 9-3) 18/1  Dane O'Neill  — * *
15Jul11    Nby 7GF C42yMd 4K  9-3 5/9 (3¼L Jungle Beat 9-3) 8/1  Dane O'Neill  — * *


11 1-21  Thought Worthy 14  3 9-0 John Gosden 83 William Buick  —  101 123
bay colt Dynaformer (USA) — Vignette (USA) (Diesis)

George Strawbridge

19May12    Nmk 10GF C13yL 18K  9-0 1/5 (nk Noble Mission 9-5) 15/8J  William Buick  106 * *
28Apr12    San 10Hy C13yG3 31K  9-0 2/4 (1¾L Imperial Monarch 9-0) 9/2  William Buick  88 * *
11Oct11    Ncs 8Sft C52yMd 3K  9-0 1/13 (¾L Silver Blaze 9-0) 6/1  William Buick  — * *

12  613-32  Tower Rock 20  3 9-0 A P O´Brien 48   —  100 126
bay colt Dylan Thomas (IRE) — Monevassia (USA) (Mr Prospector (USA))

Michael Tabor

13May12    Leo 10GS 3yG2 51K  9-3 2/5 (¼L Light Heavy 9-3) 9/1  Seamie Heffernan  101 * *
15Apr12    Leo 10Gd 3yG3 25K  9-3 3/7 (4L Light Heavy 9-3) 20/1  Seamie Heffernan  101 * *
06Nov11    Leo 9Y 2yL 21K  9-1 3/7 (2½L Call To Battle 9-1) 9/1  Seamie Heffernan  — * *
19Oct11    Nav 8Sft 2y 8K  9-5 1/18 (¾L Diplomat 9-5) 5/1  Seamie Heffernan  — * *
05Oct11    Nav 8Sft 2y 8K  9-0 6/17 (13½L Quote Of The Day 9-0) 8/1  Seamie Heffernan  — * *

Judging from the market I still think Imperial or, less probably, Astrology may be re-routed to France?

Paddy Power

Betting W/O Camelot

Bonfire 13/8
Main Sequence 9/2
Astrology 9/2
Imperial Monarch 5/1
Thought Worthy 10/1
Father Of Science 16/1
Mickdaam 16/1
Rugged Cross 20/1
Tower Rock 28/1
Minimise Risk 33/1
Cavaleiro 33/1

Some of the other trainers are going to have to start colluding with each other to stop AOB setting the pace terms for races like this. It's not certain Camelot will stay so what will Ballydoyle do? Have a couple of pacesetters go a comfortable pace early to try and get Camelot to settle ,but I doubt they'll
go hard from a long way out. Whereas if Astrology was their No 1 ,the pacemakers would be flat out from a
long way out to the advantage of Astrolgys stamina.
Some times with people who take advantage you've got to fight fire with fire.
Though there is a problem in executing this in that you've got to have entered horse in these races well in advance and wereas AOB has no problem running quality animals into the ground to enhance their stud value
of another horse most other trainers haven't got that kind of luxury.
It's difficult to argue 8/11 for a horse that hasn't run beyond a mile is value, but he'll have the early
pace run to suit him which can only be an additional advantage.

At the current price Camelot doesn't interest me however he is the obvious winner on paper! Imperial Monarch if he runs would be worth a small investment at the current price of 18/1 tho!

Astrology and Imperial Monarch have been left in the French Derby this morning. AOB's other Epsom Derby entries have been taken out of it.

Disappointingly, the Jockey Club looks a lot, lot deeper than our race

Kesampour, Albion, Saint Baudolino, Hard Dream, Top Trip, Lunayir....any of those would grace Epsom.

Bucket load of 12f colts in there too, what's wrong with some of these trainers and owners, I wonder???

bjg, sorry but how do you know theyve been left in etc, the forfeit stage is tomorrow on the a/post market on here,

First forf today, second tomoz.

1    KESAMPOUR M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     S.A. AGA KHAN    M. DELZANGLES    130.600
2    LUNAYIR M.PS. 3 a.    58    ***     H.H. AGA KHAN    A.DE ROYER DUPRE    26.100
3    Ektihaam Ire M.Ps. 3 A.    58    ***     HAMDAN AL MAKTOUM    R. VARIAN    64.012
4    FRENCH FIFTEEN M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     CHEIK ABDULLAH BIN KHALIFA AL T    N. CLEMENT    352.459
5    Hermival Ire M.Ps. 3 A.    58    ***     H.H. CHEIK MOHAMMED BIN KHALIFA    M. DELZANGLES    72.500
6    ASTROLOGY IRE M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR    AP. O'BRIEN    61.871
7    ENERGIZER GER M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     GESTUT SCHLENDERHAN    J. HIRSCHBERGER    35.300
8    AMARON GB M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     GESTUT WINTERHAUCH    A. LOWE    123.195
9    SAINT BAUDOLINO IRE M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     GODOLPHIN SNC    A. FABRE    64.100
10    GREGORIAN IRE M.PS. 3 a.    58    ***     PCSSE HAYA DE JORDANIE    J. GOSDEN    24.527
11    Silver Northern M.Ps. 3 A.    58    ***     MAURICE LEGUILLON    D. CHENU    55.750
12    JUNGLE BEAT IRE M.PS. 3 a.    58    ***     M.TABOR/MME J.MAGNIER/D.SMITH    J. GOSDEN    5.985
13    COUPE DE VILLE IRE M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     MACDONALD/WRIGHT/CREED/& CO    RM. HANNON    365.137
14    IMPERIAL MONARCH IRE M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH    AP. O'BRIEN    47.691
15    Triumphant Ire M.Ps. 3 A.    58    ***     MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH    AP. O'BRIEN    15.450
16    Vault Ire M.Ps. 3 A.    58    ***     MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH    AP. O'BRIEN    31.230
17    MAIN SEQUENCE USA M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     FAMILLE NIARCHOS    DR. LANIGAN    60.887
18    HARD DREAM (IRE) M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     PANDORA STUD LLC    F. ROHAUT (S)    96.300
19    Sir Jade M.Ps. 3 A.    58    ***     GUY PARIENTE    JM. CAPITTE (S)    64.550
20    Tifongo M.Ps. 3 A.    58    495     GUY PARIENTE    HA. PANTALL    66.500
21    Most Improved (Ire) M.Ps. 3 A.    58    ***     IRAJ PARVIZI    BJ. MEEHAN    46.004
22    Albion Gb M.Ps. 3 A.    58    ***     MLLE KIRSTEN RAUSING    A. FABRE    59.900
23    Valdo Bere M.Ps. 3 A.    58    ***     LUIGI ROVEDA    E. LEENDERS    49.550
24    COUP DE THEATRE M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     ANTOINE SAUTY DE CHALON    P. VAN DE POELE (S)    46.300
25    VOLA E VA GB M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     SCUDERIA BLUEBERRY SRL    GRIZZETTI GALOPPO    72.573
26    HIDDEN FLAME IRE M.PS. 3 a.    58    ***     R.C. STRAUSS    R. COLLET (S)    3.400
27    SAONOIS M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     PASCAL TREYVE    JP. GAUVIN    134.300
28    TOP TRIP (GB) M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     JOERG VASICEK    F. DOUMEN (S)    116.400
29    Nutello Usa M.Ps. 3 A.    58    ***     WERTHEIMER & FRERE    C. LAFFON-PARIAS    54.250
30    SOFAST M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***     WERTHEIMER & FRERE    F. HEAD (S)    179.995

thanx hm, bjg, surely coolmore will have either  imp mon/ast in the race, imo the former

Camelot
Has run three times, all over 8f.
Won his last race by a neck and 7 seconds above standard.

Epsom is a different test.  I'm a sceptic.

Pedigree gurus which are the absolute guaranteed stayers?

Imeprial Monarch is definitely bred for 1m4f, Astrology may be more and Camelot look to have 10f breeding.

Main Sequence has no chance of staying on pedigree but of course has already won over the ditance at Lingfield??

Am I missing something? Or can someone suggest to me why you are able to back Imperial Monarch at the same price as that of Thought Worthy a horse whom he has already beaten by 1 3/4lengths whilst giving away 8 lengths by taking the longer route at Sandown in search of better ground! John Gosden the trainer of Thought Worthy himself said the ground was virtually the same that day and he was impressed by Imperial Monarch! Now either one is over priced or the other is under priced! Can anyone shed some light on this?

imperial will b 12 or 10 once confirmed a definate runner the other is todays speculative gamble

You think he will be confirmed as a definate runner sinfin?

rumour has it, that theyre hoping for good to soft for friday

bruce im only guessing but like everybody i think one of astro logy or imperial will go to france but i wished they make there mind up its days away now

If Imperial was owned by someone else I'd be all over it. As it is we don't know if it will run and if it does what it's role will be.

Declaring 5 is not cricket IMO unless they all run. They surely must know which are going to Epsom by now.

what about the oaks, are all 7 running

Imperial Monarch a big drifter on here today and no money on the lay side.

But given he is screaming out on pedigree for 1m4f I don't see the sense in switching to France where it's only 10f.

I see a similar race as when High Chapperal beat (outstayed) Hawkwing - maybe this time they desperately want to let the 2nd best horse (Camelot) win

Yeah I hope he is declared as a runner to be honest I think he could go very close indeed! I can't have any of the others apart from Camelot but at the price I would rather sit it out!

Racing Post ‏@Racing_Post
A decision on whether Father Of Science and Tower Of Rock will run in the Derby will be made in the morning.
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1m Racing Post ‏@Racing_Post
Imperial Monarch will be aimed at Sunday’s French Derby subject to the ground trainer Aidan O’Brien has said.
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2m Racing Post ‏@Racing_Post
Joseph O’Brien will ride Camelot in Saturday’s Derby. Ryan Moore will be on Astrology.

thx turnip

no worries

Aidan O Brien only running Astrology and Camelot

9 runners

I am seriously hacked off with a number of French handlers.

WABOCs imo - do they not want to win the Derby?!?

a 9 runner derby. Interesting to see how the race is run. Especially when I am not sure that Astrology will be certain to set the pace.

Thought Worthy has front run in his last 2 races and given that he looks a horse that appears to have more stamina than pace, there must me a strong chance he will make the running at an average pace. First time Ballydoyle haven't run pacemakers in the
race for a good few years, unless astrology is to take up the role (I think this is unlikley with Moore on board ).
These things are never set in stone and it's impossible to be sure what will happen but if Thought Worthy doesn't set the pace
they could go slow ,which would probably favour the pacier types, Camelot and Bonfire.
Interestingly when Workforce won in a track record they didn't go that quick early and the O'brien pacemaking outsider At first sight looked like he'd nicked it at one stage.
The race is too complicated for me and I won't be betting in it.

the race is an eway dream.

Surely Bonfire is an ew bet to nothing. Can't see him being out of the money. Race unlikely to be run at a mad gallop which will surely be to his advantage

agree mark, they all going on about him not staying, but many derby winners have been doubtful to get the trip, like you say nothing there to take them at a mad gallop, so a good 10 furlong horse will be in his element ,  , trouble is this will suit the fav as well. why do you think there not in heavy mobbed as usual.

@markphisto I have thought this for weeks. I have backed Bonfire at 8/1, 8/1, 11/2 and 5/1 all with the same firm and E/W. Didn't look like there was going to be a lot of runners and think he will be suited by the way the race is run. There are some very average horses in the derby and he isn't one of them.

Obviously Camelot could be anything and is still the top rated horse in the race but was happy to take a few decent place prices. May try and lay off in-running as the Guineas still looked a good trial to me and I can see a situation in which Bonfire is picked up by Camelot late on but trades shorter in-running.

i can see bonfire cruising 2 out, will trade shorter, im sure youll get out at around 5/2, im not saying he wont win

Be a very tactical battle. Looking at Camelot's sectional times for the guineas he seems to have plenty left in the tank going into the last two furlongs, he really accelerates between 2f and the winning post. Be great if the same information was available for the Dante as well although ground was completely different.

Camelot & Bonfire look the two class acts in the race, looks a gd 1/2 forecast.
I hope & expect Camelot to win well.

@elisjohn hard to know with Ballydoyle. Could be (1) Camelot much better than the rest at Ballydoyle (2) don't think they need a furious pace to bring out the best in him (and give him a harder race than may be necessary) (3) don't want to beat him with one their own (least likely IMO)

The only worry I can think of re Camelot (bar Bonfire possibly being better!) is that a lot of horses who ran well in both Guineas have disappointed since. Race times at Newmarket indicate that the ground was much softer than described and maybe these horses had very hard races.

Not a fan of betting odds on unless I feel its absolutely nailed on and still provides value, therefore its Bonfire e/w for me

I'd think O'Briens two will fight it out for 1st and 2nd, with the Gosden horse filling the places. The main concern for any Astrology backers is whether or not all of their tools are in one box. Some will say that they aren't afraid to let their horses beat one another, but there are mitigating circumstances this time. We will see what happens.


1 - Camelot

2 & 3rd coming from Astrology & Thought Worthy

btw...thought worthy is still 16s which seems quite big. Incidentally, this race doesn't seem to be capturing anyones imagination. Has there ever been a derby with so little attention or care ?

Have to agree graeme, as far as the betting goes. I have Camelot 7lbs clear. Think the only thing that can beat him is if the Guineas took the edge off him, I've seen it happen before which is why I wouldn't take such a short price, can't see anything worth taking him on with though either.

Your 7lb clear may be right Figgis. I just can't see Bonfire or Main Sequence being anywhere near good enough. Astrology looks a good horse in his own right, and Thought Worthy should stay on. I'd have Camelot as 1/2, Astrology 11/2, Thought Worthy 8/1, Bonfire 10/1, Main Sequence 16/1 and 25s bar.

PURE CLASS

Different class alright

Different class to the rest but then the rest are only Group 3 standard so doubt he can rated all that highly on the official figures.

Bar Camelot the 3 year old crop looks pretty dire (colts and fillies) and the trouble is most of the really good horses he could take on over 10-12f are owned by Coolmore (St Nicolas Abbey, So You Think etc) so unless something emerges from the French Derby tomorrow (and that may be another Coolmore horse in Imperial Monarch) the Irish Derby and St Leger are looking penalty kicks for him if that's how they choose to play it.