**Chester Cup**

Never Can Tell a possibility

Is Shubaat in? I read somewhere that it is first reserve. If it gets in then the 14/1 SJ will look very big too me.

Zuider Zee big price at 16s e/w should appreciate step up in trip course winner and goes on ground,Gosden older horses in good nick.

1 (8)     110/167-    Overturn (IRE) 57      8     9-10    D McCain Jnr    E Ahern     106   
2 (7)     1131-74    Barbican 7    4     9-10    A Bailey    D Holland     110   
3 (16)     23613-2    Zuider Zee (GER) 28      5     9-9    J H M Gosden    William Buick     105   
4 (12)     144484-    Mount Athos (IRE) 214    5     9-7    L M Cumani    J P Spencer     103   
5 (2)     318254-    Tominator 243    5     9-4    R Hollinshead    P Pickard (3)     100   
6 (5)     2046-16    Eternal Heart (IRE) 28    4     9-3    M Johnston    J Fanning     103   
7 (17)     610/304-    Ajaan 249    8     9-2 b    Sir H R A Cecil    T P Queally     98   
8 (14)     5130-94    Address Unknown 11    5     9-1 v1    Ian Williams    S Donohoe     97   
9 (9)     12229-0    Kiama Bay (IRE) 32      6     9-1    J J Quinn    T Eaves     97   
10 (19)     1711-21    Gulf of Naples (IRE) (ex3) 11    4     9-1    M Johnston    F Norton     98   
11 (6)     421211-    Never Can Tell (IRE) 214      5     9-0    J A Osborne    L Dettori     96   
12 (18)     4/30570-    Mystery Star (IRE) 214    7     8-12    M H Tompkins    P Hanagan     94   
13 (10)     509803-    Merchant of Dubai 141    7     8-12    J S Goldie    G Lee     94   
14 (11)     001220-    Kazbow (IRE) 214    6     8-11    C Grant    K Fallon     93   
15 (13)     61407U-    Ile De Re (FR) 60    6     8-11    D McCain Jnr    Jim Crowley     93   
16 (15)     31219-0    Harrison's Cave 24    4     8-8    A P O'Brien    R L Moore     94   
17 (1)     420910-    Dazinski 214      6     8-7    M H Tompkins    P Mulrennan     89   
18 (3)     133/3-1    Shubaat 31    5     8-7    R Varian     Reserve 1     89   
19 (4)     10B00-0    Activate 32    5     8-7    K A Ryan     Reserve 2     89

Kiama Bay 25/1, 33/1 ew only bet so far

14/1 does look big for Shubaat now. Good call!

Il De Re looks  bit overpriced to me. 1lb lower than when 4th at this track over a shorter distance when he didn't have the best of luck in running. Has won over 2 miles at AAscot and softer ground will hold no fears.

If Shubaat cant run what is the rule 4?

Trends for the past 10 runnings of Chester Cup (http://tinyurl.com/ceomkax):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 2-10-40
5yo: 2-5-35
6yo: 4-7-42
7yo: 2-6-25
8yo+: 0-2-27
Ages of winners has been fairly well spread out though there has been no winner aged older than 7 in last 20 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-3-11
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-7-41
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-11-56
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 2-6-46
Horses carrying 7-13 or below: 0-3-15
Higher weights are favoured:
Horses carrying 8-9 or more: 8-18-92
Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 2-12-77
Top weight: 060050P022 (0-2-10)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 104 or higher: 0-3-15
Horses rated 90 to 103: 9-15-90
Horses rated 89 or lower: 1-12-64
9 of 10 winners of the race were officially rated 90 to 103 and they represented just 53.3% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won over 2M+ (exception had won over 1M 6F, had only 1 run over 2M+)
7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (2 of 3 exceptions placed in class 2 and other had yet to race above class 3)
7 of 10 winners ran won a race worth 10K+ (3 exceptions all placed in a race worth 10K+)
6 of 10 winners had their last run in April
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were having their first flat start of the season
6 of 10 winners (last 3) had previously run in 4 to 9 flat handicaps
5 of 10 winners had won or placed at Chester (4 of 5 exceptions having first course start)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) had 3 or 4 hurdles starts that calendar year


Other races
Previous season's winner (Overturn): 21000 (1-1-5)
Placed in previous year: 003390001900906302 (1-4-18)
Northumberland Plate winner (Tominator): 871 (1-0-3)
Racing Post / SIS Betting Shop Manager Handicap winner (Gulf Of Naples): 3 (0-1-1)
Cesarewitch winner (Never Can Tell): 03 (0-1-2)
Record of first 5 from previous Cesarewitch: 00719320790109 (2-2-14)
Racing UK Handicap winner (Gulf Of Naples): 04 (0-1-2)
Betfred "The Bonus King" Handicap winner (Gulf Of Naples): 3570 (0-1-4)
4 of 10 winners had been placed in a previous Northumberland Plate, finishing 4331
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Cesarewitch, finishing 502
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Ebor, finishing 100
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Goodwood Cup, finishing 88
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Mallard Stakes, finishing 58
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 6) ran over hurdles at the Aintree Festival last time out
3 of 10 winners ran in a hurdle at that year’s Cheltenham Festival
4 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 6 in this (other 6 hadn't run in it before)

Trainers
Richard Fahey (1-3-7) also has fine record, having filled one of the places in 4 of the last 6 years, including the winner in 2007.
David Pipe (1-0-1), James Given (1-0-1), Tim Pitt (1-0-2) and Ian Williams (1-0-3) have each won the race once in the past 10 years.
Mark Johnston (0-3-9) and Mick Channon (0-2-6) have both gained multiple places since 2001.

Draw
Horses drawn 1-8: 7-17-80
Horses drawn 9+: 3-13-89
Horses drawn 8 or below have won last 3 and are favoured but, with the length of the race, Chester’s draw bias does not have quite the same effect in this as it does in the sprints.

Tactics
8 of 10 winners raced prominently
Horses that race close to the pace are favoured, mainly due to the layout of the track. Bulwark was the only horse in the last ten years to be held up further back than midfield to win and the 2 winners who weren’t in the front rank throughout were both drawn in a double-figure stall.

Price
No strong trends on the prices, 6 of 10 winners went off at single-figure odds however 4 of the last 7 winners were priced between 16/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won the race twice in the past decade, giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4 to 7
•    Carrying 8-9+
•    Officially rated 90 to 103
•    Won over 2M+
•    Won a class 2 or higher
•    Run in fewer than 10 flat handicaps
•    Having first flat start this year
•    Ran over hurdles at 2012 Aintree or Cheltenham Festivals
•    Previous won or placed at Chester (or having first run here)
•    Previously finished in first 6 in a Chester Cup
•    Placed in a previous Northumberland Plate
•    Ran in 2011 Ebor and/or Cesarewitch Handicap
•    Drawn 1 to 8
•    Tends to race prominently
•    Trained by Richard Fahey

Zuider Zee out

Shubaat gets in

Mount Athos out

Kiama Bay looked like he loved both the course and the ground when he won here last summer (albeit not beating much) which is making me toy with an E/W punt, but the distance is a negative for me.

Shubaat and Harrisons Cave DUTCHED hear.

STANDARD CARDAT-A-GLANCE CARDODDS COMPARISONLATEST SHOWS
NO. DRAW    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
18     0/167-    Overturn57J      8    9-10    Donald McCain    Eddie Ahern     106    96    114
27     131-74    Barbican7    4    9-10    Alan Bailey13    Darryll Holland     110    103    115
316     3613-2    Zuider Zee28      5    9-9    John Gosden59    DOUBTFUL     105    99    114
412     44484-    Mount Athos214    5    9-7    Luca Cumani55    DOUBTFUL     103    104    115
52     18254-    Tominator243    5    9-4    Reg Hollinshead50    Paul Pickard3     100    96    115
65     046-16    Eternal Heart28    4    9-3    Mark Johnston38    Joe Fanning     103    95    117
717     0/304-    Ajaan249 b    8    9-2    Sir Henry Cecil27    Tom Queally     98    96    114
814     130-94    Address Unknown11 v1    5    9-1    Ian Williams83    Stevie Donohoe     97    87    115
99     2229-0    Kiama Bay32      6    9-1    John Quinn33    Tom Eaves     97    95    119
1019     711-21    Gulf Of Naples11 3x    4    9-1    Mark Johnston38    Franny Norton     101    85    124
116     21211-    Never Can Tell214      5    9-0    Jamie Osborne    Frankie Dettori     96    104    113
1218     30570-    Mystery Star214    7    8-12    Mark H Tompkins60    Paul Hanagan     94    94    116
1310     09803-    Merchant Of Dubai141J    7    8-12    Jim Goldie38    Graham Lee     94    98    113
1411     01220-    Kazbow214    6    8-11    Chris Grant50    Kieren Fallon     93    110    115
1513     1407U-    Ile De Re60J    6    8-11    Donald McCain    Jim Crowley     93    93    116
1615     1219-0    Harrison´s Cave24    4    8-8    A P O´Brien53    Ryan Moore     94    95    114
171     20910-    Dazinski214      6    8-7    Mark H Tompkins60    Paul Mulrennan     89    106    119
183     33/3-1    Shubaat31    5    8-7    Roger Varian58    Dominic Fox3     89    108    115

wd GoldCupwinner

Cheers. I get it right once in a while :)

GoldCupwinner think no stalls may have helped there.

wd gcw