Horse Antepost
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Sorry about the other two posts typo! Anyways onto more serious matters concerning this weekends 2000 Guineas at Newmarket! Have to say I'm pretty excited about this race, mainly as I want to see like many others how Camelot fairs! I don't know how to assess him to be honest, on the one hand I can't help but feel he is another St Nicholas Abbey! Like many have alluded to already on here he has alot of striking similarities - same trainer, both won the Racing Post Trophy and both start favourite for the 2000 Guineas! I think like alot of very knowledgeable people on this forum the price of 13/8 about Camelot seems very short indeed taking into consideration the question marks that hang overhead! But then again there is always doubts over any horse in any race until the race is won and you get the usual folks that tell you "I knew he/she was a good thing" isn't there?
The biggest factor that is putting me off backing Camelot at the minute is unfortunately Aidan O'Brien! Saddens me to say that as I think he is a top notch trainer in many respects but his choice to play his cards so close to his chest on matters like this doesn't fill me with confidence! I fully understand that after SNA's flop last year that he doesn't want to shout from the roof tops about the next coming in Camelot but regardless of whether he does or doesn't talk about him it only makes the general public and media talk the horse up even more and draw their own conclusions purely based on what they have seen of the horse! Which leads me nicely onto my next point of what the horse has actually achieved on the track! Granted he has only has the two runs and won the Racing Post Trophy in impressive style at least visually anyway. What did he beat though? On the other hand he did it so effortlessly putting the race to bed within a matter of strides and if he has improved looks a very good horse! I know all races are run differently in terms of early pace etc but they say (who they are I'm not sure exactly) the clock doesn't lie! Camelot's Racing Post victory over the mile trip was done in 1:38.58s at what looked like a canter to him! The fastest ever recorded 2000 Quineas was 1:35.08s surely if conditions are right for him and he gets there in good nick with a clear run he could go very close to this time! Each length equates to 0.2 seconds on the flat so on he would need to run approx 15 lengths more so ahead of what he did in the Racing Post Trophy to win at Headquarters! Feasible? I would say that if he goes there fully fit he should go very close- he won hard held with plenty in the tank! Meanwhile after researching his opposition that line up also to brave the Rowley Mile the main threat seems to be Trumpet Major who clocked a time of 1:37.44s over the mile at Newmarket, I feel conditions suited him and it's probably on his limit in terms of time! Still very respectable no doubt!
If you have managed to read this far I tip my hat to you, I can ramble! Anyways it would be nice to get a few opinions on this post with regards this race not so much my creative writing skills! Does Camelot win? Not sure but think I will back him to finish in the top 3 at 5/7! Good luck to all on what ever you back!
The biggest factor that is putting me off backing Camelot at the minute is unfortunately Aidan O'Brien! Saddens me to say that as I think he is a top notch trainer in many respects but his choice to play his cards so close to his chest on matters like this doesn't fill me with confidence! I fully understand that after SNA's flop last year that he doesn't want to shout from the roof tops about the next coming in Camelot but regardless of whether he does or doesn't talk about him it only makes the general public and media talk the horse up even more and draw their own conclusions purely based on what they have seen of the horse! Which leads me nicely onto my next point of what the horse has actually achieved on the track! Granted he has only has the two runs and won the Racing Post Trophy in impressive style at least visually anyway. What did he beat though? On the other hand he did it so effortlessly putting the race to bed within a matter of strides and if he has improved looks a very good horse! I know all races are run differently in terms of early pace etc but they say (who they are I'm not sure exactly) the clock doesn't lie! Camelot's Racing Post victory over the mile trip was done in 1:38.58s at what looked like a canter to him! The fastest ever recorded 2000 Quineas was 1:35.08s surely if conditions are right for him and he gets there in good nick with a clear run he could go very close to this time! Each length equates to 0.2 seconds on the flat so on he would need to run approx 15 lengths more so ahead of what he did in the Racing Post Trophy to win at Headquarters! Feasible? I would say that if he goes there fully fit he should go very close- he won hard held with plenty in the tank! Meanwhile after researching his opposition that line up also to brave the Rowley Mile the main threat seems to be Trumpet Major who clocked a time of 1:37.44s over the mile at Newmarket, I feel conditions suited him and it's probably on his limit in terms of time! Still very respectable no doubt!
If you have managed to read this far I tip my hat to you, I can ramble! Anyways it would be nice to get a few opinions on this post with regards this race not so much my creative writing skills! Does Camelot win? Not sure but think I will back him to finish in the top 3 at 5/7! Good luck to all on what ever you back!
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Hard to find value concerning camelot, win or place there is very little room to maneuver in backing it... in any case o brien may take this race and I think one of his other runners, namely Power, looks a decent wager to get into the frame, it would be no surpirse if he were to take 1st and 2nd or get a couple of them into the frame at least, anyway, to me I think Power is one that has every right to be in the race, and is not here for making up numbers or pacemaking, I'm hoping it runs up to its ability and that should be enough to at least be involved where it matters...... as for camelot, he will be a disaster or a revelation, and whichever it is, i agree there will be ppl saying i told you so... those are the same ppl who don't make a bob out of the race usually....... but there ya go! human nature, sometimes being human is not an advantage...... gl with your choice.... 
Think you hit the nail on the head there thelastleprechaun when you said "he will be a disaster or a revelation" ....that was what I was trying to get across but may have failed to do haa! If he wins - people will all of a sudden be calling him the next superstar (not saying he won't be however)!
Camelot ran the Racing Post in the ideal position: in the slipstream in last place in a small field, and up the centre of the course with his stablemate Learn setting a moderate pace. So he had an armchair ride out of the wind and the jockey could wait until the final furlong before easing out and beating a field of low-class horses. Not impressive, just easy.
kincsem I understand what I was saying if he gets a good run and the breaks that he maybe needs if he is to be produced late from the back (I'm assuming that's how he'll be ridden) surely he must have a chance? The Racing Post Trophy may have been a weak renewal but nevertheless he won hard held and must have more to still show us!
People are so quick to throw away the RP Trophy form yet I hear a lot of talk about the French horses. Have people forgotten Learn went on to race in the G1 in France and was closely behind French Fifteen that day? Talwar the only other horse who has raced since won a listed race early on this season pretty comfortably. I don't think you can say the RP Trophy form is so poor when the only 2 to come out of it have ran well.
Learn quickened to lead 1 1/2f out in France and was then passed by three horses. The last horse (11 ran) was only 9 lengths behind the winner.
Zip Top had been beaten a similar distance by first Crius, then by Camelot in the Racing Post. This year Cruis was beaten 5 lengths by Trumpet Major in the Craven. Crius may not have "trained on" or TM may have come on a lot over the winter, but if that is a form line it puts Camelot in a bad light.
Zip Top had been beaten a similar distance by first Crius, then by Camelot in the Racing Post. This year Cruis was beaten 5 lengths by Trumpet Major in the Craven. Crius may not have "trained on" or TM may have come on a lot over the winter, but if that is a form line it puts Camelot in a bad light.
Or you can look at how Talwar beat Trumpet Major. The form of the RP Trophy is inconclusive at worst. People quick to write off the form because they want to take on the short priced fav. It's good people want to take an angle on the race but hate it when people say the form of the RP Trophy is weak without anything to back it up. It could work out as a strong race.
I actually feel the RPT had decent horses in it Masterminded I would need to considering I am more so in Camelot's corner than against! Ground if it came up soft wouldn't have worried me considering he is out of Montjeu who has sired many other winners on soft ground! He is bred for further and considering the Derby is on the agenda over further the soft conditions underfoot if that is what we get come saturday shouldn't bother him! My only concern is if he can quicken on soft ground...can anyone clear this up?
Montjeu offspring on the Racing Post rated RPR 110+ lifetime
Hurricane Run, Authorized, Fame And Glory, Motivator, Montmartre, Papal Bull, Masked Marvel, St Nicholas Abbey, Pour Moi, Scorpion, Corre Caminos, Macarthur, Speed Gifted, Wall Street, Frozen Fire, Honolulu, Tavistock (NZ), Walk In The Park, Harris Tweed, Jukebox Jury, Sarah Lynx, Camelot, Growl, Class Is Class, Jan Vermeer, Joshua Tree, Nom Du Jeu (NZ), Recital, Alessandro Volta, Changingoftheguard, Falstaff, Roman Emperor (NZ), Wing Express, Albisola, Blue Bajan, Clowance, Guillotine (NZ), Montare, Askar Tau, Dash To The Top, Lion Sands, Metaphoric, Wading, Green Moon, King Of Rome, Miss Keller, Washington Irving, Gorky Park (nz), Mountain, Rhenus, Court Canibal, Fianchetto (NZ), Fulmonti (NZ), Hurricane Fly, Maria Royal, Mettre En Jeu (NZ), Mont Etoile, Naval Escort (NZ), Old Jock (NZ), Victor Delight, Bulwark, Gallant Guru (AUS), Mr Tipsy (NZ), Noble Prince, Passchendaele (NZ), Snoqualmie Boy, Yes Mr President, Campanillas, Gaily Game, High Twelve, Montaff, Storm Mountain ... (72 horses in descending RPR order 133 to 110)
These are their wins as 3-y-os
7f (2) 8f (2) 9f (4) 10f (34) 11f (12) 12f (31) 13f (7) 14f (7) 15f (4) 16f (1)
Wins from 7f to 9f as 3-y-o
Falstaff: 7 ½ f Tipperary, heavy, £9k, K Fallon
Hurricane Fly: 7f Mont-de-Marsan £4k
Class Is Class: 8f Yarmouth, good, £2.5k *
Hurricane Fly: 8f Saint-Cloud, very soft, £17k
Albisola: 9f Longchamp, heavy, £20k
Miss Keller: 9 ½ f Gowran Park, heavy, £10k
Yes Mr President: 9 ½ f, Wolverhampton, standard, £3k
High Twelve: 8 ½ f, Wolverhampton, standard, £7k
* Class Is Class’s best win was £28k in a 10f Group 3 over 8f at age 5.
Note that the 3-y-o 7f, 8f, 9f wins were small races, often on heavy ground.
Montjeu has no offspring rated 110+ who won a quality 7f, 8f, 9f race as a three year old.
Will Camelot give him the 8f high class win?
Hurricane Run, Authorized, Fame And Glory, Motivator, Montmartre, Papal Bull, Masked Marvel, St Nicholas Abbey, Pour Moi, Scorpion, Corre Caminos, Macarthur, Speed Gifted, Wall Street, Frozen Fire, Honolulu, Tavistock (NZ), Walk In The Park, Harris Tweed, Jukebox Jury, Sarah Lynx, Camelot, Growl, Class Is Class, Jan Vermeer, Joshua Tree, Nom Du Jeu (NZ), Recital, Alessandro Volta, Changingoftheguard, Falstaff, Roman Emperor (NZ), Wing Express, Albisola, Blue Bajan, Clowance, Guillotine (NZ), Montare, Askar Tau, Dash To The Top, Lion Sands, Metaphoric, Wading, Green Moon, King Of Rome, Miss Keller, Washington Irving, Gorky Park (nz), Mountain, Rhenus, Court Canibal, Fianchetto (NZ), Fulmonti (NZ), Hurricane Fly, Maria Royal, Mettre En Jeu (NZ), Mont Etoile, Naval Escort (NZ), Old Jock (NZ), Victor Delight, Bulwark, Gallant Guru (AUS), Mr Tipsy (NZ), Noble Prince, Passchendaele (NZ), Snoqualmie Boy, Yes Mr President, Campanillas, Gaily Game, High Twelve, Montaff, Storm Mountain ... (72 horses in descending RPR order 133 to 110)
These are their wins as 3-y-os
7f (2) 8f (2) 9f (4) 10f (34) 11f (12) 12f (31) 13f (7) 14f (7) 15f (4) 16f (1)
Wins from 7f to 9f as 3-y-o
Falstaff: 7 ½ f Tipperary, heavy, £9k, K Fallon
Hurricane Fly: 7f Mont-de-Marsan £4k
Class Is Class: 8f Yarmouth, good, £2.5k *
Hurricane Fly: 8f Saint-Cloud, very soft, £17k
Albisola: 9f Longchamp, heavy, £20k
Miss Keller: 9 ½ f Gowran Park, heavy, £10k
Yes Mr President: 9 ½ f, Wolverhampton, standard, £3k
High Twelve: 8 ½ f, Wolverhampton, standard, £7k
* Class Is Class’s best win was £28k in a 10f Group 3 over 8f at age 5.
Note that the 3-y-o 7f, 8f, 9f wins were small races, often on heavy ground.
Montjeu has no offspring rated 110+ who won a quality 7f, 8f, 9f race as a three year old.
Will Camelot give him the 8f high class win?
Fwiw Tavistock (NZ) has won over 7f as 4-y-o and 5-y-o, and 8f as 5-y-o.
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