2000 Guineas Trends

The 2000 Guineas is the first  “classic “ of the  flat season. It is run over a mile at Newmarket and is for 3 year old colts.
10 Year Trends
Last Time Out - 10/10 Winners finished in the first 3 on their last run ( 8 won)
Date of Birth – 10/10 were born on or before 6th April
Class - 9/10 had won at Group Level
Distance – 9/10 had won over 7 or 8 furlongs
Races Won – 9/10 had won at least 2 races
2 Year Old Debut – 8/10 won their first race as a 2 year old
Seasonal Debut – 6/10 were having their first run of the season when they won the 2000 Guineas.
Key 3year old races – the 4 winners that had already run as that season all won their respective trials. These races were -  Greenham Stakes , Craven Stakes , Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial and the Prix Djebel
Key 2 Year Old Races – 3/10 winners finished 1st 3rd 1st in the Dewhurst. 2/10 won the National Stakes at the Curragh ,  2/10 won the Railway Stakes which is also run at the Curragh
Favourites – 2 favourites have won in the last 10 years.
Trainers – 6/10 were trained in Ireland, O’Brien trained 4 of those from a total of 24 runners. John Oxx has trained horses to finish 1st and 3rd from just 2 runnersAbtaal – 2nd to French Fifteen (appeared a little unlucky) in key French trial. Fails on  a couple of trends.
Born to Sea – Half brother to the brilliant Sea the Stars. Has only had 2 runs but won a listed race on his first run. Yet to win a Group Race . His trainer has a good record in the race.
Camelot – Sure to go off as a short price favourite for this . Won group 1 Racing Post Trophy over a mile last season but will he want further now to be seen at his best?
Caspar Netscher – Won Greenham last time out. Has already got 11 career runs under his belt. Fails on one trend but has won on soft ground and might be over priced at around 25/1.
French Fifteen – Closely matched with Abtaal. Won Prix Djbel last time out. Fails on 1 trend but has won on soft going. Not without a chance.
Parish Hall – Won the Dewhurst, a good guide for this, when an unfancied 20/1 shot. Has a middle distance pedigree and a mile might be on the short side for him now that he’s a 3 year old but can’t be dismissed lightly.
Power – 2nd in the Dewhurst and won National Stakes , both key 2 year old races.
Looks to have a good chance ,from a trends perspective and O’Brien has won this with his apparent 2nd string in the past.
Top Offer -Has only one run to his name  when he won a 2 year old maiden. Highly rated by connections but fails on too many trends .
Trumpet Major – Won over course and distance when winning the Craven Stakes. Well beaten in the Dewhurst by Parish Hall and Power. Doesn’t meet all the trends.
Verdict
Camelot might prove himself to be a superstar but he is going to be a very short price for this and from a trends perspective doesn’t appeal.  Here is a shortlist of 4 that could run well at a decent price and do well on the trends –
Power
French Fifteen
Caspar Netscher
Parish Hall