Horse Antepost
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Trends for the past 10 runnings of the World Series Hurdle at Punchestown on Thursday (http://tinyurl.com/c7ys4qc):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-3-8
6yo: 3-5-23
7yo: 3-7-29
8yo: 2-3-15
9yo: 0-1-10
10yo: 1-0-9
11yo+: 1-0-4
Horses aged 5 to 7: 6-15-60
Horses aged 8 or older: 4-4-38
The ages of the winners has been quite well spread out though in recent years younger horses have held the call with 8 of the last 9 winners aged 6 to 8 and only 2 horses aged above 8 have made the frame in the past 8 years.
Gender
Mares (4-2-10) received a 5lb allowance and have made the most of that, gaining 4 wins and 2 places from just 10 runners. Their record when only counting mares priced 16/1 or shorter reads 51312141 (4-2-8).
Breeding
Irish bred: 6-14-62
French bred: 2-0-15
British bred: 2-2-11
German bred: 0-2-6
American bred: 0-1-4
No strong trends on the breeding.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)
6 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) posted a career high RPR last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
8 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in previous year's race)
6 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (4 exceptions were grade 1 winners having first try at 3M+)
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (2 exceptions placed in a grade 1 & other having their first start in a grade 1)
6 of 10 winners were course winners (other 4 were having their first course start)
Punchestown Festival Form
Defending Punchestown Staying Hurdler (Quevega): 4821 (1-1-4)
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at the Festival before, other 3 were having their first run at the Punchestown Festival
3 of 10 winners had run in previous Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Nov Hurdle, finishing 1P2.
2 of 10 winners ran in previous World Series Hurdle, finishing 31
Cheltenham Festival Form
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle winner (Quevega): 11 (2-0-2)
Highest placed finisher in the World Hurdle to run in this: 62P3P6692 (0-3-9)
Placed finishers in World Hurdle: P6693 (0-1-5)
8 of 10 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 Pertemps Final, 2 Champion Hurdle, 2 Mares Hurdle, 1 Coral Cup, 1 World Hurdle)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Pertemps Final, finishing 50
2 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 8F
2 of 10 winners (both Quevega) ran in Mares Hurdle last time, finishing 11
Only 1 of 10 winners ran in that season’s World Hurdle at Cheltenham
Other races
Hattons Grace Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 1535 (1-1-4)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Thousand Stars): 1 (1-0-1)
Tara Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 154F (1-0-4)
Galmoy Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 837702 (0-2-6)
Red Mills Trial Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 25 (0-1-2)
Christmas Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 792 (0-1-3)
Boyne Hurdle winner (Mourad): 3764 (0-1-4)
Lismullen Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 3507 (0-1-4)
Rock Of Cashel Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 04 (0-0-2)
Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle winner (Get Me Out Of Here): 564 (0-0-3)
Highest placed finisher in the Aintree Hurdle: 21117 (3-1-5)
Highest placed finisher in the Liverpool Hurdle: 23P1706 (1-2-7)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the John Smith's Handicap Hurdle last time out, finishing 03
6 of last 8 winners ran at Aintree last time out (Quevega accounts for other 2)
Trainers
British trained runners (4-7-23) have a strong record in this race, having won 4 of the last 10 runnings with almost half of their representatives making the places.
Willie Mullins (4-2-15) has won the race 4 times in past 10 years, including the last 3.
Jonjo O’Neill (2-3-6) has gained 2 wins and 3 places from his 6 runners since 2002.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
There have been two shock winners at 16/1 and 25/1 (both trained in Britain) but other than those two the other 8 winners were all sent off 6/1 or lower.
Favourites (6-2-10) have a very good record having won 6 of the last 10 (including the last 4), giving a level stakes profit of 5.09.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 8 or younger
• Mares do well
• Finished in the first 3 last time out in the past 50 days
• A second or third season hurdler (or won/placed in last year’s race)
• Won a grade 1
• Won over 3M+ (or trying 3M+ for first time)
• Previously won or placed at Punchestown Festival
• Course winner (or having first run here)
• Ran at the Aintree Festival last time (or in Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham)
• Avoid horses that finished in the first 3 in the 2012 World Hurdle
• Trained by Jonjo O’Neill or by Willie Mullins
• Priced 6/1 or below (favourites do well)
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-3-8
6yo: 3-5-23
7yo: 3-7-29
8yo: 2-3-15
9yo: 0-1-10
10yo: 1-0-9
11yo+: 1-0-4
Horses aged 5 to 7: 6-15-60
Horses aged 8 or older: 4-4-38
The ages of the winners has been quite well spread out though in recent years younger horses have held the call with 8 of the last 9 winners aged 6 to 8 and only 2 horses aged above 8 have made the frame in the past 8 years.
Gender
Mares (4-2-10) received a 5lb allowance and have made the most of that, gaining 4 wins and 2 places from just 10 runners. Their record when only counting mares priced 16/1 or shorter reads 51312141 (4-2-8).
Breeding
Irish bred: 6-14-62
French bred: 2-0-15
British bred: 2-2-11
German bred: 0-2-6
American bred: 0-1-4
No strong trends on the breeding.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)
6 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) posted a career high RPR last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
8 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in previous year's race)
6 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (4 exceptions were grade 1 winners having first try at 3M+)
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (2 exceptions placed in a grade 1 & other having their first start in a grade 1)
6 of 10 winners were course winners (other 4 were having their first course start)
Punchestown Festival Form
Defending Punchestown Staying Hurdler (Quevega): 4821 (1-1-4)
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at the Festival before, other 3 were having their first run at the Punchestown Festival
3 of 10 winners had run in previous Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Nov Hurdle, finishing 1P2.
2 of 10 winners ran in previous World Series Hurdle, finishing 31
Cheltenham Festival Form
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle winner (Quevega): 11 (2-0-2)
Highest placed finisher in the World Hurdle to run in this: 62P3P6692 (0-3-9)
Placed finishers in World Hurdle: P6693 (0-1-5)
8 of 10 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 Pertemps Final, 2 Champion Hurdle, 2 Mares Hurdle, 1 Coral Cup, 1 World Hurdle)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Pertemps Final, finishing 50
2 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 8F
2 of 10 winners (both Quevega) ran in Mares Hurdle last time, finishing 11
Only 1 of 10 winners ran in that season’s World Hurdle at Cheltenham
Other races
Hattons Grace Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 1535 (1-1-4)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Thousand Stars): 1 (1-0-1)
Tara Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 154F (1-0-4)
Galmoy Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 837702 (0-2-6)
Red Mills Trial Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 25 (0-1-2)
Christmas Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 792 (0-1-3)
Boyne Hurdle winner (Mourad): 3764 (0-1-4)
Lismullen Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 3507 (0-1-4)
Rock Of Cashel Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 04 (0-0-2)
Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle winner (Get Me Out Of Here): 564 (0-0-3)
Highest placed finisher in the Aintree Hurdle: 21117 (3-1-5)
Highest placed finisher in the Liverpool Hurdle: 23P1706 (1-2-7)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the John Smith's Handicap Hurdle last time out, finishing 03
6 of last 8 winners ran at Aintree last time out (Quevega accounts for other 2)
Trainers
British trained runners (4-7-23) have a strong record in this race, having won 4 of the last 10 runnings with almost half of their representatives making the places.
Willie Mullins (4-2-15) has won the race 4 times in past 10 years, including the last 3.
Jonjo O’Neill (2-3-6) has gained 2 wins and 3 places from his 6 runners since 2002.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
There have been two shock winners at 16/1 and 25/1 (both trained in Britain) but other than those two the other 8 winners were all sent off 6/1 or lower.
Favourites (6-2-10) have a very good record having won 6 of the last 10 (including the last 4), giving a level stakes profit of 5.09.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 8 or younger
• Mares do well
• Finished in the first 3 last time out in the past 50 days
• A second or third season hurdler (or won/placed in last year’s race)
• Won a grade 1
• Won over 3M+ (or trying 3M+ for first time)
• Previously won or placed at Punchestown Festival
• Course winner (or having first run here)
• Ran at the Aintree Festival last time (or in Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham)
• Avoid horses that finished in the first 3 in the 2012 World Hurdle
• Trained by Jonjo O’Neill or by Willie Mullins
• Priced 6/1 or below (favourites do well)
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Replies: 2
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would be all over zaidpour for this if quevega missed it for some reason.
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Surprising how badly horses from the World Hurdle have done in this, thinking Berties Dream might have an ew chance at 33s in the terrible ground
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