Horse Antepost
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RACY
Unlucky a good few times last year, especially first time out (hampered and flew home; York 5f Good) and deserves a change of luck. Stiffish mark to start on but likely he's better than that and can acquit himself well.
VALERY BORZOV
Bounced back to form nicely last term and bagged two wins in the process (both 6f G/S). Probably needs the rain to be a deluge to be effective over this shorter trip and wins tend to come on straight tracks.
MARVELLOUS VALUE
Starts the campaign on high mark after two wins last term (both 6f Good) and a close second in Ayr Silver Cup. Other prizes more than likely wait later in the year and can blow cobwebs away today.
MIRZA
Interesting sort who produced some smart efforts when dropped back to 6f last year. Another for whom the rain would help his chances and starts on high enough mark but with potential he is better than this. Sound draw too.
MARINE COMMANDO
Did well as a 3yo to win always-competitive Haydock sprint last September (5f G/S) but first showing this year was poor. Might take a while to find his stride so tentatively opposed today despite bagging rail draw.
MAGICAL MACEY
In fine form last year and showed best when on ground with some ease in it (two 5f G/S wins). Scored on seasonal debut last April and potential to go well if rain hits the track despite 6lbs rise for win on final start (Gibbons 1-2 on him).
DOC HAY
Now 10lbs higher than last win at Pontefract (5f Good) where he overcame a difficult passage. Followed up with listed third (Eton Rifles behind; now 111 rated) and looks better than current mark suggests. Fanning 3-3 on him and won't mind any rain.
TAGULA NIGHT
Nothing wrong with seasonal return for new yard and can build on that. Usually saves his best for a rain softened Goodwood though and 6lbs above last winning mark currently.
SUNRAIDER
A lot to like about debut for new year at Doncaster and having slipped to 2lbs below last winning mark he is well handicapped. Interesting to see how to goes today as never raced over 5f but no shock to see a decent show. Potentially well in.
COCKTAIL CHARLIE
Has dropped to an eye-catching mark now for the Easterby yard and sure to land one of these before the year is out. Has run well on both seasonal debuts so far and ground no worries. Interesting.
BABY STRANGE
Certainly capable off this mark and shown well being with AW races this Winter. Feeling is that straight tracks over 6f are his forte though and he'd be of more interest when getting those conditions.
MASTER ROONEY
Course and distance win to his name but never the easiest to either predict or rely on. Usually takes a run to get him sharper and wide draw doesn't help matter either. Opposable.
HAZELRIGG
Very close to winning on both starts he's had here and remains attractive off this mark despite being 7lbs above last winning one. Might be hard to peg back from inside draw but worry is usually needs a run to get him going.
COURAGEOUS
Frustrating sort who has lots of talent but needs to show it more often. Finally got head in front at Chester last term (6f G/S), so will handle to bends here and has been running well on the AW. Can go well.
SUMMARY
It's a shame this has now cut up slightly with the race being reduced by three runners but it’s interesting stuff none the less. There are many ifs buts and maybes surrounding the fitness of certain ones in the field and what the weather is going to do, but DOC HAY finished off last term in game fashion and look a better horse than his current mark of 90 suggests. The Pontefract win was impressive as he came widest of all from last place and won cosily. Then he took to Doncaster and a third in a Listed event there when behind Sirius Prospect and ahead of Eton Rifles shows he is due plenty of respect today. Fitness is the concern but the Dalgleish team are in good form, as is Fanning who is 3-3 on him. A case could be made for a number of the other runners but Magical Macey looks a tad overpriced at 16/1 having landed a big field handicap over this distance at Ayr last term, he’ll appreciate any rain that falls before the off time and he scored on debut last season.
Doc Hay 2pts win @ 11/2
Unlucky a good few times last year, especially first time out (hampered and flew home; York 5f Good) and deserves a change of luck. Stiffish mark to start on but likely he's better than that and can acquit himself well.
VALERY BORZOV
Bounced back to form nicely last term and bagged two wins in the process (both 6f G/S). Probably needs the rain to be a deluge to be effective over this shorter trip and wins tend to come on straight tracks.
MARVELLOUS VALUE
Starts the campaign on high mark after two wins last term (both 6f Good) and a close second in Ayr Silver Cup. Other prizes more than likely wait later in the year and can blow cobwebs away today.
MIRZA
Interesting sort who produced some smart efforts when dropped back to 6f last year. Another for whom the rain would help his chances and starts on high enough mark but with potential he is better than this. Sound draw too.
MARINE COMMANDO
Did well as a 3yo to win always-competitive Haydock sprint last September (5f G/S) but first showing this year was poor. Might take a while to find his stride so tentatively opposed today despite bagging rail draw.
MAGICAL MACEY
In fine form last year and showed best when on ground with some ease in it (two 5f G/S wins). Scored on seasonal debut last April and potential to go well if rain hits the track despite 6lbs rise for win on final start (Gibbons 1-2 on him).
DOC HAY
Now 10lbs higher than last win at Pontefract (5f Good) where he overcame a difficult passage. Followed up with listed third (Eton Rifles behind; now 111 rated) and looks better than current mark suggests. Fanning 3-3 on him and won't mind any rain.
TAGULA NIGHT
Nothing wrong with seasonal return for new yard and can build on that. Usually saves his best for a rain softened Goodwood though and 6lbs above last winning mark currently.
SUNRAIDER
A lot to like about debut for new year at Doncaster and having slipped to 2lbs below last winning mark he is well handicapped. Interesting to see how to goes today as never raced over 5f but no shock to see a decent show. Potentially well in.
COCKTAIL CHARLIE
Has dropped to an eye-catching mark now for the Easterby yard and sure to land one of these before the year is out. Has run well on both seasonal debuts so far and ground no worries. Interesting.
BABY STRANGE
Certainly capable off this mark and shown well being with AW races this Winter. Feeling is that straight tracks over 6f are his forte though and he'd be of more interest when getting those conditions.
MASTER ROONEY
Course and distance win to his name but never the easiest to either predict or rely on. Usually takes a run to get him sharper and wide draw doesn't help matter either. Opposable.
HAZELRIGG
Very close to winning on both starts he's had here and remains attractive off this mark despite being 7lbs above last winning one. Might be hard to peg back from inside draw but worry is usually needs a run to get him going.
COURAGEOUS
Frustrating sort who has lots of talent but needs to show it more often. Finally got head in front at Chester last term (6f G/S), so will handle to bends here and has been running well on the AW. Can go well.
SUMMARY
It's a shame this has now cut up slightly with the race being reduced by three runners but it’s interesting stuff none the less. There are many ifs buts and maybes surrounding the fitness of certain ones in the field and what the weather is going to do, but DOC HAY finished off last term in game fashion and look a better horse than his current mark of 90 suggests. The Pontefract win was impressive as he came widest of all from last place and won cosily. Then he took to Doncaster and a third in a Listed event there when behind Sirius Prospect and ahead of Eton Rifles shows he is due plenty of respect today. Fitness is the concern but the Dalgleish team are in good form, as is Fanning who is 3-3 on him. A case could be made for a number of the other runners but Magical Macey looks a tad overpriced at 16/1 having landed a big field handicap over this distance at Ayr last term, he’ll appreciate any rain that falls before the off time and he scored on debut last season.
Doc Hay 2pts win @ 11/2
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Replies: 17
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Good luck VK
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There you go. A tasty 20/1 in the end. The one-two tipped up in the summary!
Ended up just doing Doc Hay though didn't I like a plonker!  |
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Now thats what you call tipping. Top class VK.
You should post more regularly imo  |
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Aye great tipping! Always like to read what you've said about a horse when looking at a race.
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Thanks for the positive responses
 I'd post more regularly if they threw some more of these 5f/6f Class 2/3 handicaps into the schedule  Hopefully I'll find a few more decent winners via these write ups as the season goes on and if it helps people to select them then it's all for the better. |
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Im gobsmacked you didn't back it tbh VK. You highlighted it and put it in bold.
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As am I Sint! Although my emotions at the moment are more p***ed off than gobsmacked
I was playing cautiously early season rather stupidly. From now on I'm going to bet on all my selections! |
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yeah fair enough, always best to start gently otherwise you'll be on the back foot. gl for the next one!
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You're on fire mate. Never be afraid of backing more than one horse in a race at value prices.
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Thanks Howellsy!
It was pretty stupid looking back at it. I'll just follow my own analysis from now on instead of over thinking the issue! |
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I backed Racy several times last season so will be hoping he can land a big pot at somepoint as he did put in some smashin efforts and clocked some good speed figures. His run today was a bit disappointing but can be forgiven as I suspect his shrewd trainer has some bigger targets lined-up. The horse may need the benefit of a 5lb claimer at some point.
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Value King,
What is it about big field sprint handicaps that attracts you to them? I have read a load of your posts from the past season or two and it's clear you do well in them. I too am suckered by the big handicaps (flat & jumps) but confess my success rate is marginal. We all remember those big priced winners over the years but the losers are easily forgotten! The reason I ask is reviewing my own betting records there's a definite trend to profits from graded races and races with smaller fields, let's say 10 runners or less. So if you could give a few snippets of advice on sprint handicaps what would they be? For me it's maybe forget about them completely! My own advice to others is cut out the savers and focus on those you really fancy. Those saver bets can add up in no time and just eat into hard earned profit. |
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VK you plonker
well done in your analysis anyway  |
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Thanks TT
Oasisdreamer, There are a number of reasons I enjoy the big field sprint handicaps so much... Firstly, I believe they are the most exciting to watch. The speed, the path weaved, getting up just on the line, these are the bare bone reasons why I enjoy them, taking away the betting angle. Aside from this when it comes to the analysis side of the race I believe there are many factors that one can look for to try and narrow down the field in sprints more than other races. The draw being the main factor most of the time, as over these shorter distances at certain courses it can play a major role. I think sprinters hold their form well too and tend to strike when they come back to winnable mark or by looking for the improver shooting up through the handicap, Hoof It style. Following the journey of horses in these races I find intriguing too as you tend to get a lot of the same crowds turning up to face each other over the course of one season and indeed many seasons. Then when it comes to the betting side of things you often get decent prices due to the nature of the race, so when you do find one or two you think are in with a good shout you often get a nice meaty price to get stuck into. Obviously finding the winner everytime in these is near enough impossible, but when you do pop up with a good few throughout the season it's very rewarding both mentally and financially. I hope that helps in some way to answer your query. |
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Cheers VK. Always useful to consider others thought processes.
I agree handicap mark and identifying improvers are good winner finding angles. One I also consider is looking for horses that have had good reason for a recent poor performance (draw, ground, track etc) BUT have looked on the upgrade prior to that, showing a rare turn of foot. You regularly find the betting market writes off an animal after one bad performance, particularly sprinters where the margin of error can be so slight given the distances covered. Sirius Prospect being a good example last season. He had a poor run at Newmarket in between winning a few races. He then moved up to win in Listed company at the backend, all at decent prices. GL with your selections this flat season. |
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Hi VK, Are you doing the 6F race at Ponte tomorrow?
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Hi Mich,
Unfortunatley not as I've been working all weekend and I'm busy tomorrow morning so haven't had any time to study it. If only this was my full time job! But I'll be doing them when I can during the season definitely, so thanks for wanting to see one. |