Horse Antepost
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Here are the decs:-
1 Clerk´s Choice 11-10 147
2 Petit Robin 11-8 145
3 Edgardo Sol 11-7 144
4 Raya Star 11-6 143
5 Tetlami 11-5 142
6 Desert Cry 11-4 141
7 Local Hero 11-3 140
8 Red Merlin 10-12 135
9 Ted Spread 10-11 134
10 All The Aces 10-8 131
11 Megastar 10-7 130
12 Charm School 10-6 129
This looks a great race. Of those I really fancy Local Hero who I think is well handicapped and very unexposed at 140. Last season it had a long hard season before running over the top at Aintree. It was 8th in the Triumph and ran race a nice enough race staying on at the end. Before the triumph it beat Third Intention well enough off levels (who got as high as 153 not long ago). It had a long break after last season and didn't return until 15th Feb this year at Kelso over 2m2f, in the race it had to give Simonsig 4lbs and got to within four lengths of it by the finish. Simonsig was better than the bare form but even so it was a great reappearance. His only other race was in the County Hurdle at Chelts and in that race he had no kind of run, he raced in the first third of the field and was looking good enough. After the second last it was hampered very slightly and checked from on it's one off the inside position to being stuck behind a wall of horses coming around the home turn that all ended up going to the stands side rail and this all happened whilst the winners were quickening away on the inside. When behind the horses he was still travelling within himself and looked like he could travel quicker but when the gaps appeared going to the last he was too far back and only received a couple of smacks after the last for the judge. Whilst he didn't stay on eye catchingly he was given no chance on the bend, and was treated accordingly by Brian Hughes he would have been much closer and looked like he could have gone with the gallop of the winners had he not had a wall of horses in front. Third time out this season looks spot on having skipped aintree he could be great value against the likes of Edgardo Sol with whom he now has a 7lb pull with on their county running.
1 Clerk´s Choice 11-10 147
2 Petit Robin 11-8 145
3 Edgardo Sol 11-7 144
4 Raya Star 11-6 143
5 Tetlami 11-5 142
6 Desert Cry 11-4 141
7 Local Hero 11-3 140
8 Red Merlin 10-12 135
9 Ted Spread 10-11 134
10 All The Aces 10-8 131
11 Megastar 10-7 130
12 Charm School 10-6 129
This looks a great race. Of those I really fancy Local Hero who I think is well handicapped and very unexposed at 140. Last season it had a long hard season before running over the top at Aintree. It was 8th in the Triumph and ran race a nice enough race staying on at the end. Before the triumph it beat Third Intention well enough off levels (who got as high as 153 not long ago). It had a long break after last season and didn't return until 15th Feb this year at Kelso over 2m2f, in the race it had to give Simonsig 4lbs and got to within four lengths of it by the finish. Simonsig was better than the bare form but even so it was a great reappearance. His only other race was in the County Hurdle at Chelts and in that race he had no kind of run, he raced in the first third of the field and was looking good enough. After the second last it was hampered very slightly and checked from on it's one off the inside position to being stuck behind a wall of horses coming around the home turn that all ended up going to the stands side rail and this all happened whilst the winners were quickening away on the inside. When behind the horses he was still travelling within himself and looked like he could travel quicker but when the gaps appeared going to the last he was too far back and only received a couple of smacks after the last for the judge. Whilst he didn't stay on eye catchingly he was given no chance on the bend, and was treated accordingly by Brian Hughes he would have been much closer and looked like he could have gone with the gallop of the winners had he not had a wall of horses in front. Third time out this season looks spot on having skipped aintree he could be great value against the likes of Edgardo Sol with whom he now has a 7lb pull with on their county running.
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any takers for Tetlami. He was my main supreme novice pick and watching how Barry G didn't get stuck into him up the straight gave me the impression that he wasn't 100%. That said maybe he needed to arrive there more fresh than he did. IF that is the case then he may not like it on saturday?!
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Trends for the past 10 runnings below (http://tinyurl.com/d6jg7ys):
Age (Win-Place-Runners) 4yo: 0-1-4 5yo: 2-8-22 6yo: 3-2-22 7yo: 3-5-26 8yo: 0-1-8 9yo: 2-0-11 10yo+: 0-1-8 8 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 7, though that age group has represented approximately 70% of the total runners. Both 9yo winners had previously won a handicap hurdle worth 50K+ and had made the places in a graded handicap hurdle in one of last two starts. Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 2-8-41 Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 8-10-60 Horses carrying lower weights are strongly favoured. All 20 horses attempting to carry 11-0+ in this since 2002 have been beaten and only 4 have been placed. Top Weight: UP3UF897946F3 (0-1-13) has a very poor record in this, only the mighty Overturn has managed to make the frame carrying top weight. He had won the previous year’s race and went to win his next 3 hurdles starts, including a grade 1. Official Ratings (based on actual ratings not on what they ran off) Horses rated 145 or higher: 1-4-29 Horses rated 134 to 144: 8-13-56 Horses rated 133 or lower: 1-1-16 Horses officially rated 134 to 144 have won 8 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 55.5% of total runners. The only year a horse rated 145+ won it, there was only 1 runner rated lower than 145, who had to race from 4lbs out of the handicap and was sent off 25/1. Recent/Past Form 10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since August 1st 8 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days 9 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers 9 of 10 winners had 5 to 16 previous hurdles starts 8 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 9 or fewer handicap hurdles 10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap hurdles 7 of 10 winners were rated 80+ on the flat (2 exceptions were bumper winners & other made debut in a listed novice hurdle in France) 5 of 10 winners had won a class 1 hurdle, however 4 of the last 6 had won at no better than class 3 Other Races Defending Scottish Champion Hurdler: 42 (0-1-2) Highest place finisher from previous Scottish Champion Hurdle: U46873 (0-1-6) The Ladbroke winner (Raya Star): 47 (0-0-2) 3 of 10 winners ran in the Greatwood Hurdle, finishing 0FF 3 of 10 winners ran in the Swinton Hurdle, finishing 140 2 of 10 winners ran in the Imperial Cup, finishing 00 2 of 10 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 32 2 of 10 winners ran in John Smith's Mirror Punters Club H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 01 2 of 10 winners ran in 2M 1/2F John Smith's H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 23 Previous season’s Anniversary Hurdle The grade 1 4yo hurdle at the previous season’s Aintree Festival has proved an amazingly good guide to this race. Since 2002 all 7 horses that ran in the previous season’s Anniversary Hurdle made the places in this race the following season. Highest placed finisher from previous season's Anniversary Hurdle: 32331 (1-4-5) Record horses that ran in previous season's Anniversary Hurdle: 3321331 (2-5-7) 2 of 2 winners aged 5 ran in previous season's Anniversary Hurdle, finishing 93 Local Hero, 5th in 2011 Anniversary Hurdle, is entered in this year’s Scottish Champion Hurdle. Trainers Paul Nicholls (1-5-12) trained Sanctuaire to win it last year and has seen 6 of his 12 runners make the frame. Donald McCain (1-1-3) saddled Overturn to win it in 2010 and finish 3rd last year. Steve Gollings (0-1-2) trained Royal Shakespeare to finish 2nd & 6th in 2005 and 2006. Nicky Henderson (0-1-7) has gained just 1 place from his 7 runners while Alan King (0-0-4) has seen all 4 of his representatives finish unplaced, despite 2 going off favourite. Price 7 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting No very strong trends on prices for this race. Favourites (4-4-12) have fared well in this, gaining 4 wins & 4 places, showing a level stakes profit of 2.75. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: • Aged 6 or 7 (or a 5yo that ran in the 2011 Anniversary Hurdle) • Carrying 10-9 or less • Officially rated 134 to 144 • 1st, 2nd or 3rd season hurdler • Run in 9 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 3) • Officially rated 80+ on the flat (or won a bumper) • Finished in first 4 in County and/or Swinton Hurdle • Ran in this season’s Greatwood H’cap Hurdle • Finished in first 3 in a h’cap hurdle at Aintree Festival last time • Trained by Paul Nicholls or Donald McCain |
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Thanks for all the detail mate.
I'm so glad I'm not a stats man though!!! |
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I don't think any of the horses fit all those stats lol. Edgardo Sol probably the cloest.
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Id imagine he will be sub 2-1 though
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He may well win but it is quite a lot to ask for it to run two weekends running in hot races when Chelts was only a just over a month ago. Three competitive races in about 5 weeks is asking a fair amount.
If it soft at Ayr I will probably leave Local Hero well alone BTW. If the wood good appears in the going in any way I'll be a backer. |
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if the word good appears....
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so he meant to write
FAV  |
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Looks a bit of a mine field to me. Maybe Raya Star if you can forgive him his last run? GMOOH and Zarkander have both ranked the Newbury form since.
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Probably gone completely mad but I am going to have a decent E/W on Megastar in this race.
Unsuccessful in the chasing sphere so far this term, he was returned to hurdles at Cheltenham LTO over 2m 5F but unsurprisingly did not feature. He is exceptionally well handicapped though today off 130 and is used to running at level weights in graded hurdle races. He beat Red Merlin by a distance + off level weights and today get 5lb. Racecallers trends point to a low weighted horse aged 7 and there are only two that meet the criteria. With blinkers applied for the first time and with Moore's horses always capable if expected. 40/1 on here could look huge at 2:55! 33/1 in places with the books. GL. |
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Damn didn't even back Raya Star. Jut left the race in the end.
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I nearly backed it as a saver but never mind. Bertie did the business at Newbury so I had a decent day.
I still think Local Hero has a decent race in him but I guess we'll see. Possibly a little further may help on good ground. |