Scottish Grand National (ayr april 21st)

Has anyone got the acceptors, yet?

Big Issue - I think Galaxy Rock is being targetted at the Whitbread the following week.

Seems like oddschecker has updated. Guessing with all the blue on there and the many under that aint priced up no more tells a story as to whos in and whos out

Thanks STARS.

Any chance of updating the market ?

Portrait King at 10s with Billys for me

My book on this so far

harry the viking 7s, merigo 10s, ikorudo road 12s, portrait king 10s, knockara beau 14s and fruity o rooney 20s all e/way.

Like them all tbh, just playing up the numbers game as i like to do get a few running for me at a nice under round book.

You have basically backed the first 5 in the betting STS

You should collect, in theory.

at the odds there is only 1 bet for me, Any currency at 20's.
Crying out for a trip, always staying on in races over 3 miles. problem with ground if comes up 2 soft but with so many not going to see out the trip and if safe jumping ground should get a good run for my money

harry the viking obvious chance but his price relates that i like galaxy rock but more interesting bethereinfive ran a nice race behind sunnyhillboy in the kim muir

Thats just how i like it sint, yes i collect more often than not but when i miss (like the Grand National tho got 2-3-4 so was only small loss) it can be expensive though i don't often miss admittedly. It's just all about making a 'back book' with a nice under round both win and place. Can sometimes get nice returns when hitting the places as well as the win.

Above are mine so far, as long as they all run, or max 1 no show, which is unlikely i think amongst those, i left myself enough room to back a couple more at 8/1+ with maybes a couple proper rags at 20/1+ so happy days !

Just the way i like to operate, some people like to lay on here and build a book, i don't i prefer to do the opposite grab the winner and celebrate it.

Incidentally i have had a very good look at this race, and i think it can seriously get cut up. There is also a small chance the top 4 in the handicap don't turn up. If that happens the weights will go up 9ib, thus making it a top heavy handicap with those under 11st not looking good enough. The last time this happened was when a 66/1 shot won the race a few years ago when out of the handicap proper. Looking at those under 9-11, in my opinion their just not good enough and it is very difficult to make a case for any. Also i cannot see anything in the entries to suggest a locally based trainer might have one lurking as was the case with the 66/1er. So for me it has to be one of the top 10 in the betting.
I cannot have any horse that run at Aintree so that leaves out Junior and West end Rocker, (will they even turn up) and if Junior didn't go would Reveley be happy with Benny Be Good top weight? Does Walk on run in this? This is my case for the top 4 not running. Am i wrong/way off the mark? Please tell me.
However, for the basis of my book, on the day, if Junior/WER did turn up and one or both were 10/1+ they would not go unbacked playing for the places and just in case of course only on the basis of the book.
Knockara Beau off top weight hmm, galaxy rock wants soft which aint gonna happen, fruity wont be without a chance, Harry obvious chance and in actual fact could prove to be the class horse in the race, Ikorodu Road based on last couple runs obvious chance also, portrait king and Lie Forrit also have good chances. I think a case can also be made for Auroras Encore though rating may now be slightly to high though in a compressed handicap as it may turn out to be if the top 4 come out wont be without a chance.

See it's all about the price and the staking for me and above is how i have approached the scottish national. Win lose or draw.

I think i may well have just typed out a load of drivel oh well, things can only get better haha

PORTRAIT KING absolute certainty

TINnotaTON     16 Apr 12 10:01 
have backed MERIGO @ 10-1,probably prefers soft, but wont be inconvienienced by good, has a great record in this race, (first and second the last two runnings) should get in the handicap proper and is 8lbs lower than last year.



Absolutely agree. Plus loves this time of year. And loves Ayr, has won 4 times at course(inc this race 2010 - and 3/4length 2nd last year). A massive chance -and 10/1 a great price imo

Tintonian, I'm with you all the way on Merigo. This is the write up I have done on my blog http://onetojump.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/ayr-scottish-national-ante-post.html  Hope it is of some use!

Thinking back to December when I put up Le Beau Bai for the Welsh National, one of the main reasons that I put him up was that he loves Chepstow. Similarly at Aintree we saw a great result in the Topham when Always Waining won the race for the third year in a row. The same can be said for Saint Are who loved being back at Aintree. The clear message from these stories is the fact that the notion of "horses for courses" is very real and MERIGO LOVES RUNNING AT AYR  where Saturday's Scottish National is held.

As aforementioned, Merigo loves Ayr and his record at the course reads 3112121. He has a number of other factors going for him too which are clarified below:


The ground is currently good but persistent rain is forecast this week, and at worst the ground could be heavy. Merigo's form on heavy ground reads 111 so the ground is clearly not an issue whatever it comes up as.


He has run in this race  for the last two years and has finished 1st and 2nd in respective years. This year he runs off an 8lb lower mark than last year, and the form from last year's race has been strong with Beshabar going close in this year's Hennessy.


He has an abundance of stamina with a record in races over 4 miles reading 112. He won his last race over an inadequate 3 miles purely due to the fact that he outstayed his rival...and that it was at Ayr.


Despite being 11 he appears to be in good form if his last run is anything to go by.


With his course form being so good and with plenty being in his favour I consider him to be a fantastic each way bet for Saturday's race. The 10/1 has to be taken as I can't see it lasting for long. Over the course of the day a number of bookies have cut him to 8/1 and 9/1 and I would expect him to go off a 6/1 shot.


However, while I think he is a great bet he has plenty on his plate in what looks a very competitive race so success won't be easy. Harry The Viking is the market leader at 6/1 and his form looks bombproof. He beat Ikorodu Road in December giving weight to him and he has since placed in his next three runs which include two victories in good quality races. His form ties into the Irish National winner also as a result of him beating Four Commanders at Cheltenham who beat the Irish National winner Lion Na Bearnai in February. His National Hunt Chase performance is worthy of note also as he came second over the 4 mile distance of Saturday's race behind what looks to be a future staying star in the form of Teaforthree.


Portrait King is another who catches the eye and looks tailor made for a race like this. I would not be putting him up as a horse of interest but for the fact that there is a high chance that the rain will come and soften the ground to his liking. Following his impressive victory in the Eider over Saturday's distance, the trainer was quoted saying that he wouldn't run him again this season if the ground was too quick. If the forecast is right I expect him to start and he looks a huge danger as he on an upward curve and has bags of stamina. A line through him forces me to mention Posh Bird who came second in the Eider. She disappointed in the Midlands National but that was not her true form. She comes into the race with a nice weight swing with Portrait King  and at 25/1 she is very interesting. However she could have been beaten by any amount of lengths by Portrait King and I'd rather side with the more progressive gelding.


Any Currency is another one of interest however I've never really liked him as he just keeps running through beaten horses and has no turn of foot. He could easily finish in the places but I cant see him ever challenging for the lead at any stage if turning up.






So there is a fairly comprehensive early look at the Scottish National and at his current price of 10/1 Merigo has to be the best bet in the race hands down.

BBC has rain forecast at Ayr every day this week.

I was gutted Any Currency didnt make it into National field but with Martin Keighley confirming this is now the aim I have to wade in at 25s. Abbeybraney and Captain Americo also big prices in belief there will be some cut and weights will rise to get them in handicap

lol IC "TINTONIAN"
the merigo train is on its way..had to be there or thereabouts

Aplogies TINnotaTon, was in a bit of a rush and didn't read it right

Hopefully Timmy Murphy will be up again and will galvanise him up the straight to fend off Portrait King (if it is soft), Ikorodu and Harry the Viking!

would be very confident on soft/heavy, but it was good ground last year so no bother, good luck all with your selections.

I feel as strongly about Merigo on Sat. - as i did about Always Waining last Friday in The Topham

Hopefully Timmy Murphy will be up again

Didn't he give him an AWFUL ride last year though? Totally got the horse beat imo, Merigo should be on for a Scottish National hattrick here.

I think Knockara Beau has been crying out for a trip like this for a long time. Although not sure he is as well handicapped as Merigo appears to be.

Agree GoldCupWinner but I think its quite conceivable he will end up with top weight in this

The Scottish Grand National
10 Year Trends
Class – 10/10 winners had won a chase at class 3 or higher.
Last Time Out – 10/10 finished in the first 6 last time out.
Runs – 10/10 had run between 3 – 6 times that season.
Distance – 9/10 had won over at least 3 miles.
Since Last Run – 9/10 had run within the last 2 months.
Weight – 9/10 carried 10st 9lbs or less.
Official Rating – 9/10 had an official rating of 143 or lower.
Experience – 8/10 had run at least 10 times over fences.
Starting Price – 8/10 had a starting price of 12/1 or higher. The Favourite last won in 2000.
Trainers – Ferdy Murphy has won the race twice in the last 10 years.

After looking further, Merigo does seem to be very solid. He must go close and can't see any reason why he wouldn't.

At this rate Merigo will be a short priced fav. for the race come Sat!!

Had a look through them stats and found some surprising results.

Only 3 entries meet every stat above, they are

GARLETON
ABBEYBRANEY
BALLYFITZ

All three are likely to be bigger than 12/1, all three will carry less than 10-9, all three have won a class 3 chase or higher (Admittedly Ballyfitz was back in 2008), etc etc

4 others score 9/10 of the above stats
IKORODU ROAD - ran 7 times this season, likely sp less than 12/1
PORTRAIT KING - will be dead on 2 months since last run and has only ever ran 6 times over fences, stat says 10
MERIGO - Only stat he does not meet is the under 12/1 likely sp!
MAC AEDA - Has only ever had 6 chase starts

Does the SP stat really have any relevance at all?

Probably not, but seems a strange one as its 8 out of the last 10 renewals were started at bigger than 12/1! In every year i am guessing there would have been steamers, the one that has to win, the best horse in the race etc etc and in 8 out of 10 a relative outsider has won. So this is why i included it.

I am happy enough, having already backed 3 out of the 7 posted above and the remaining 4 can be backed at at least 33/1!

I'm very keen on Any Currency too. Very soft going would put me off him though. He didn't enjoy himself at Chepstow in the mud.

lie forrit and quentine collonges are of interest
to me at the prices.Maybe Galaxy Rock will go for
the Whitbread?

My Scottish Grand National short-list is as follows.ABBEYBRANNEY, FRUITY O ROONEY, IKORODU ROAD, KNOCKARA BEAU, GALAXY ROCK, MAC AEDA, QUENTIN COLLONGES and POTRAIT KING. I have pretty much decided all being well that I will be backing portrait king, quentin collonges and abbeybraney. Had 1st ,2nd and 4th in last weekends grand national so hoping to go two better 1st,2nd,3rd,4th,5th!!!! Two more selections decided on.

i completely agree with ic super's excellent analysis.mergio is rock solid!i think the hcper has a grip on galaxy rock and fruity o rooney and ikorodu road ,plus will they get the trip?knockara beau is totaly unreliable and eratic.portrait king does not jump well enough for me and thus i think will get outpaced,they normally go a good clip in this.  harry the viking is a serious danger and rightly the fav.jumps lovely,gets the trip and probally has improvement in him.i think he will be all the rage on saturday,wudnt surprise me if he went off around 11/4,its only negative is lack of experiance.all in all i think magio is an e.w cert and absolutely can win,10s or better and i will have a righ cut.gl all

Merigo (not Mergio or Magio!)- 10/1 now gone - and will get much get much shorter imo.

garleton has run 8 times this season

kingrat
i completely agree with ic super's excellent analysis.mergio is rock solid!i think the hcper has a grip on galaxy rock and fruity o rooney and ikorodu road ,plus will they get the trip?knockara beau is totaly unreliable and eratic.portrait king does not jump well enough for me and thus i think will get outpaced,they normally go a good clip in this.  harry the viking is a serious danger and rightly the fav.jumps lovely,gets the trip and probally has improvement in him.i think he will be all the rage on saturday,wudnt surprise me if he went off around 11/4,its only negative is lack of experiance.all in all i think magio is an e.w cert and absolutely can win,10s or better and i will have a righ cut.gl all

portrait king does not jump well enough for me and thus i think will get outpaced,they normally go a good clip in this

Im sorry but i just cannot agree with that statement at all.

http://www.ayr-racecourse.co.uk/owners-and-trainers/going-weather

Found this link on twitter with regard to Ayr's going. Plenty of rain last night and more expected. Already Good-Good to soft in places. The way the forecast looks I'd be surprised if there was any "good" in the going description come Saturday.

Undecided as to whether soft ground will be detrimental to Harry the Viking's chances. Thoughts?

Portrait king for me as well,his second to smoking aces looking very good in who he had behind that day,glad to see a bit of forecast rain for him.

Well he has never run on worse than GS and though this may be pure coincidence, wouldn't be a positive to me especially at it's price.

For me everything is coming right for PK

That smoking aces form looks a bit hit and miss to me. Only the National winner and Porttrait King himself have come out of won. The others haven't come anywhere near winning.

Irish Nat. winner was over 20l behind,Mister farmer and Paddy pub further behind have also won races since.

Sorry I stand corrected. Up the Beat ran well at the festival too. If it comes up soft he'll surely be a warm order.

knockara for me with a saver on lie forrit.  i disagree that knockara is eractic, he is very consistent, he just needs 4 miles.  for me, he is the absolute class horse in the race

Agree that Knockara may need 4 miles...unfortunately jockey only stays 2.5

Stats look to be against knockara with the weight he'll probably have to carry. I remember Grey Abbey winning off top weight but he was built to carry weights and even he may have lost if Granit didn't fall at the last. Do they plan to run Junior here?

Think they planned to GCW, but soft will surely be against him. I suppose it'll depend on how much rain falls before decs

As the ground softens the chances must surely increase that Junior will wait for the Whitbread (or whatever its called now) a week later

I've split stakes between Portrait King and Merigo at an average of around 9/1 on both, with slightly more on the former as I always like to be on a young progressive horse for this.  Having selected Merigo 2 years ago, he gave me the fright of my life last season and off his lower mark looks very well in.

I was on Merigo two years ago too and fear I may have a soft spot for him. I'm really tempted to put my biggest bet ever on him e/w. There hasn't been too many multiple winners of this race but a lot of them are aimed at the Grand National after winning this. He's on a good mark and more importantly has shown some recent form with his win last time out. I think soft ground would be a bonus for him if only for the fact it would rule out some of the younger challengers and make it harder for higher weights to last the distance.

Roobuck - Good post at 19.30

Thieves - he does - and 4 course wins (of his career 6 wins).

Yes, merigo was very impressive when winning a novice handicap at the SGN meeting on good ground about 100 years ago, it was that which convinced me to back him 2 years ago as many were assuming he needed heavy ground after his Eider win.

Getting more and more confident about MERIGO

Paul Keally has put Merigo up in The Weekender

^^Don,t think I,ve ever seen you so bullish,.
In reply to goldcupwinner 19.43 seems quite likely Jumior will run (not definite) judging by reports this morning.

I've just backed Merigo e/w NRNB at 8/1 in laddies. I can't see him out of the top 4 barring a fall and he's only ever fell when taking on the Aintree fences. Never been unplaced at Ayr, proven to stay the trip, handles any ground, looks to be on a nice mark and has a great racing weight. I nearly placed my biggest bet ever on it but talked myself around to a large but manageable bet in case it goes wrong :-)

Connections of Junior will monitor the horse's condition as well as the weather before deciding whether to commit their charge to the Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr on Saturday.

The David Pipe-trained nine-year-old has a slightly swollen joint following his fall at the second fence in the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree last weekend.

Another concern is the likely soft ground north of the border as Junior would have to carry top weight of 11st 12lb in the stamina test over an extended four miles.

"He's fine, he's happy. He did rap a joint which is a tiny bit swollen and we have to monitor that during the week as to whether he runs in the Scottish National," said Tim Palin, racing manager to owners Middleham Park Racing.

"It also depends on what the ground is. He's got top weight and it's possible he might wait a week for the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. We'll have to see if his joint settles down."

Palin was delighted Junior returned safe and sound after being caught immediately after his fall by jockey Tom Scudamore.

"Tom caught him straightaway and they walked back together," he went on.

"We were worried because we didn't see the horse run back but it was because Tom had caught him, so it took them a while to get back."

Irish trainer Maurice Phelan has no such worries about Portrait King, who returns to these shores attempting to supplement his triumph in the Eider Chase at Newcastle in February.

"He's had a good break since the Eider and he's ready to go again," Phelan told At The Races.

"He won't give up and he toughs it out. He showed in the Eider that he stays and stays.

"He was always going to be a four-mile horse and jumping is his game. He should be thereabouts with luck in running over those 27 fences.

"It looks like being soft, which should be perfect ground for him."

I just can see Junior running....

Get in the King perfect jock on board sure to go well imo.

What happened to Posh Bird LTO?? big price given its run with PK when it probably idled, certainly travelled well enough into the last

The lack of money on Ikorodu Road looks worrying this morning for those who have backed him

Lie Forrit is out

LIE FORRIT, who had been as short as 10-1 for Saturday's Coral Scottish Grand National, will miss the race after he was found to suffering with a cough on Thursday morning.

I have backed Benny be good at 25s first 5 places. This horse has been gently ridden in its last 4 races in my opinion by James Reveley to get it's handicap mark droped by 8lbs for this. Held up never nearer. thank me later

Could be a decent shout. Just looking at his form whenever he has won or placed "held up" has never been in the description yet he's been held up a lot recently. That run over hurdles at Huntington would give you hope of him staying the trip. He has placed off 150. Nothing in his form to date that screams he is "well in" but is down to a winnable mark.

Just done exactly the same mattyboy6 for exactly the same reasons. Keith Reveley has had this as its aim all winter whilst at the same time moaning (very loudly) that its handicap mark is too high. I think its as good a chaser as hurdler so if you take a peak at its run at Haddock in November with Synchronised, Cape Tribulation, Sunnyhillboy behind then whilst not thrown in he has a big shout to go one better for John Wade this year. Although I feel Good/ Good-soft suits best he handles soft well as proved at Huntingdon when staying on very strongly over 3m 1 and has been carrying big weights all winter. TBH unless we get severe showers on saturday I think the ground will be g/s.
Heres hoping!
COMEONBENNY!!!!!!

Boring cos hes fav but Harry the Viking trip not a problem was showing his best at the end of the Cheltenham race I thought still think plenty of improvement Ruby on top 6-1 E/W 1st 5

One out of left field is Pettifour. Was a classy hurdler and if he jumps will feel let loose with 10st on it's back. Over 80's on here is massive.

Pity it cant jump.

fruity orooney

WIN

Galaxy Rock looks laid out for this and the ground has come right for him, he'll do for me.

MERIGO - keep the faith

I was hoping Merigo would be a bit stronger in the market even though it's still early. I remember when he won I backed him on the Wed at 20/1, he went to 25/1 on the Thurs. Opened up 16/1 and drifted to 18/1 so maybe they're not a gambling stable even though they do clearly lay the horse out for races at Ayr. He even drifted 3 points when he won LTO.

Was hoping for a tad softer ground too but doesn't look like it will come.

I actually believe Merigo is better on good ground, was the reason I backed him 2 years ago.  He isn't that big and I think good ground helps his jumping.  Have to respect Galaxy Rock with this step up in trip to suit, worth a smaller bet to go with Merigo and Portrait King.  Harry The Viking looks an obvious danger on paper but I just think he has been handicapped to the hilt on what he has done so far and cannot bring myself to fancy him.

Personally feel that the ground poses no problem for Merigo whatsoever. Had the ground been soft it would have helped him from the view that conditions would be to the detriment of others.

With the ground on the good side tomorrow it will help Harry the viking and Galaxy Rock and one must take note of the fact that Jonjo is sending him up here instead of Sandown next weekend.

Fruity o'rooney is another of interest but the fact that he shows pace over three miles gives me the impression he won't see the race out.

This race has a strange way of seeing favoured runners disappointing with many pulling up (end of season fatigue perhaps). The course is not that unique so I feel this is an interesting observation. As much as I have been doubting my confident conviction in Merigo at 10/1, which is pretty natural for me, everything still points towards him. He is 6lbs clear of the field on Time form ratings!

so Merigo wins then...

so Merigo wins then...

Hopefully

With ground as it is, have added Galaxy Rock - agree that is it significant going for this and not Whitbread

Yeah I only wanted it soft to thwart the likes of Galaxy Rock etc. I agree the ground will pose no problem to him. When I wrote about him not being as strong as I would have liked in market he was 10 to back. Of course as soon as I finished my post and looked again he was 9 to back.

Can't wait for the race to start now!

I like the look of Galaxy Rock for 2moro in the Scots GN.
Think Hills are top price at 11s, al be giving them a bell 2moro morn at 8.30 sharp.
He looks a sound ew bet.
Best of luck at Ayr 2moro punters.

Think anyone who backs Any Currency e/w has a fair chance of making money.
Like Abbeybraney at a nice price as well.
Of the Favs,Merigo must run well,always does here,and Galaxy Rock and Harry TV look to me like the most likely winners.
At the prices I shall stick with AC and Abbey.
GL all.

I can see why people like Merigo from a handicapping point of view but if I'm to back a horse I like to have seen it show some recent form. The 2nd and 3rd from his recent win have both failed to beat a single horse in their next run...he may win but he's not for me.

Of the fancied horses I like Galaxy Rock and Portrait King and at bigger prices Abbeybraney and Be There in Five have chances

Job done !!Well done others who were as confident

Very well done Merigo backers,well tipped up here.
My pick portrait king didn,t get the rain,might have needed another year anyway.

Get in! Thanks to everyone that put me on to Merigo :)

:D I was still confident even when he was down after the last. Just knew he would stay better. Timmy must have loat some ground switching from the inside to the outside all the time. Kept him safe though.

Yep

What a horse, made up with that, well done all who backed him, nice drink or two toneet, and i dont drink

^ WD !!

you to facts, enjoy

What a horse Merigo is! looked as if age was catching him up turning for home but I knew he would always charge late as he usually does at Ayr. Well done team Merigo!

My favourite ever horse due to him being my biggest winner! Only ever backed him twice, both times he won the National :-)

If we all agree on another horse one day - pile in !!

BIG pat on the back to all yee merigo backers! I don't really deserve any honors as backed 6 but they way i do it, unfortunately Fruity was only 5th, and as mine were antepost only paid 4 but merigo made up for all that

Well done those who were sweet on Merigo. Alot of disappointing performances today from the other fancied horses, that's the danger at this time of year. After Sunnyhillyboy last week and a shocker in this race today I'm glad to see the back of the Nationals ! Hoping for better luck at Punchestown next week

congratulations to the many on here who were so strong in support for the winner