Forums

Horse Antepost

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
diggers
15 Apr 12 18:41
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Sep 05
| Topic/replies: 421 | Blogger: diggers's blog
Hope the rain comes all week , Get on Le Beau Bai who withdrew from the GN saturday due to ground.I took 170s as soon as pulled out in hope he turns up here.Will go off fav if runs for def.By way LETS ALL LAUGH AT SPURS (HA HA HA )

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 3  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 108
By:
bestmate
When: 15 Apr 12 18:46
Come on THE ARSENAL
By:
betilyerded
When: 15 Apr 12 19:30
Sorry to say but I think youve done your money. Theyve been putting nearly half an inch of water a day on the  track for the past week and its still good to firm. Theres rain forecast for monday night into tuesday and thats it. At best it will be good but more likely to be good to firm by race time. Big non runner imo.
By:
PeddlersCross
When: 15 Apr 12 20:00
just looking at the forecast and its rain all the way, gone in on Portrait King.
By:
betilyerded
When: 15 Apr 12 20:10
This taken from Ayr racecourse website

Past 24hrs no rainfall/10mm irrigation, -2c overnight. Sun-dry & sunny;Mon- dry, overcast with rain overnight (
By:
betilyerded
When: 15 Apr 12 20:11
Recent Rainfall:

Mon 2/4 - Sun 8/4 = 4.5mm

Mon 9/4 - Sun 15/4 = 7 mm

Recent Irrigation:

Wed 11/4 - 8mm

Thurs 12/4 - 8mm

Sat 14/4 - 10mm

Sun 15/4 - 8/10mm
By:
betilyerded
When: 15 Apr 12 20:14
Not sure what happened there but if you go to the site youll see what I mean!

The fact is theyve put the same amount of water on the course everyday last week as is forecast to fall on Monday/Tuesday so with a dry week forecast thereafter and given how quickly the course dries out then I can only see good ground or faster on Saturday.
By:
TINnotaTON
When: 16 Apr 12 09:01
have backed MERIGO @ 10-1,probably prefers soft, but wont be inconvienienced by good, has a great record in this race, (first and second the last two runnings) should get in the handicap proper and is 8lbs lower than last year.
By:
Big_Issue
When: 16 Apr 12 10:59
If the forecast going is good or just on the soft side of good then Galaxy Rock would look a decent proposition. Absolutely hacked up at Cheltenham on similar going (Carruthers and Hey Big Spender behind) before getting stuck in the Chepstow mud. Its run at Doncaster in the Sky Bet the was quite an eye opener as was seemingly never really put in the race with a chance of winning but making steady headway to finish far enough behind to stay on the same mark but showing still in good form. Nice weight pulls with Fruity O Rooney and Sahakalakaboomboom (which I assume will not run)are a help and expect a far more positive ride as well. A spin over hurdles also just to keep him ticking over.


Only problem is that I have no idea though whether its an intended runner or not? If it is then 35+ on here at the moment looks quite decent.
By:
bazzar
When: 16 Apr 12 11:16
Has anyone got the acceptors, yet?
By:
strontium
When: 16 Apr 12 11:39
Big Issue - I think Galaxy Rock is being targetted at the Whitbread the following week.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 16 Apr 12 12:12
Seems like oddschecker has updated. Guessing with all the blue on there and the many under that aint priced up no more tells a story as to whos in and whos outConfused
By:
bazzar
When: 16 Apr 12 12:16
Thanks STARS.
By:
The Gopher
When: 16 Apr 12 12:44
Any chance of updating the market ?
By:
roobuck
When: 16 Apr 12 14:09
Portrait King at 10s with Billys for me
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 16 Apr 12 14:51
My book on this so far

harry the viking 7s, merigo 10s, ikorudo road 12s, portrait king 10s, knockara beau 14s and fruity o rooney 20s all e/way.

Like them all tbh, just playing up the numbers game as i like to do get a few running for me at a nice under round book.
By:
sintonian
When: 16 Apr 12 15:15
You have basically backed the first 5 in the betting STSLaugh

You should collect, in theory.
By:
monksland
When: 16 Apr 12 15:44
at the odds there is only 1 bet for me, Any currency at 20's.
Crying out for a trip, always staying on in races over 3 miles. problem with ground if comes up 2 soft but with so many not going to see out the trip and if safe jumping ground should get a good run for my money
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 16 Apr 12 16:12
harry the viking obvious chance but his price relates that i like galaxy rock but more interesting bethereinfive ran a nice race behind sunnyhillboy in the kim muir
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 16 Apr 12 16:32
Thats just how i like it sint, yes i collect more often than not but when i miss (like the Grand National tho got 2-3-4 so was only small loss) it can be expensive though i don't often miss admittedly. It's just all about making a 'back book' with a nice under round both win and place. Can sometimes get nice returns when hitting the places as well as the win.

Above are mine so far, as long as they all run, or max 1 no show, which is unlikely i think amongst those, i left myself enough room to back a couple more at 8/1+ with maybes a couple proper rags at 20/1+ so happy days Crazy!

Just the way i like to operate, some people like to lay on here and build a book, i don't i prefer to do the opposite grab the winner and celebrate it.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 16 Apr 12 16:44
Incidentally i have had a very good look at this race, and i think it can seriously get cut up. There is also a small chance the top 4 in the handicap don't turn up. If that happens the weights will go up 9ib, thus making it a top heavy handicap with those under 11st not looking good enough. The last time this happened was when a 66/1 shot won the race a few years ago when out of the handicap proper. Looking at those under 9-11, in my opinion their just not good enough and it is very difficult to make a case for any. Also i cannot see anything in the entries to suggest a locally based trainer might have one lurking as was the case with the 66/1er. So for me it has to be one of the top 10 in the betting.
I cannot have any horse that run at Aintree so that leaves out Junior and West end Rocker, (will they even turn up) and if Junior didn't go would Reveley be happy with Benny Be Good top weight? Does Walk on run in this? This is my case for the top 4 not running. Am i wrong/way off the mark? Please tell me.
However, for the basis of my book, on the day, if Junior/WER did turn up and one or both were 10/1+ they would not go unbacked playing for the places and just in case of course only on the basis of the book.
Knockara Beau off top weight hmm, galaxy rock wants soft which aint gonna happen, fruity wont be without a chance, Harry obvious chance and in actual fact could prove to be the class horse in the race, Ikorodu Road based on last couple runs obvious chance also, portrait king and Lie Forrit also have good chances. I think a case can also be made for Auroras Encore though rating may now be slightly to high though in a compressed handicap as it may turn out to be if the top 4 come out wont be without a chance.

See it's all about the price and the staking for me and above is how i have approached the scottish national. Win lose or draw.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 16 Apr 12 16:48
I think i may well have just typed out a load of drivel oh well, things can only get better haha Laugh
By:
giggitygiggity
When: 16 Apr 12 18:02
PORTRAIT KING absolute certainty
By:
Facts
When: 16 Apr 12 18:13
TINnotaTON     16 Apr 12 10:01 
have backed MERIGO @ 10-1,probably prefers soft, but wont be inconvienienced by good, has a great record in this race, (first and second the last two runnings) should get in the handicap proper and is 8lbs lower than last year.



Absolutely agree. Plus loves this time of year. And loves Ayr, has won 4 times at course(inc this race 2010 - and 3/4length 2nd last year). A massive chance -and 10/1 a great price imo
By:
IC superstar
When: 16 Apr 12 18:15
Tintonian, I'm with you all the way on Merigo. This is the write up I have done on my blog http://onetojump.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/ayr-scottish-national-ante-post.html  Hope it is of some use!

Thinking back to December when I put up Le Beau Bai for the Welsh National, one of the main reasons that I put him up was that he loves Chepstow. Similarly at Aintree we saw a great result in the Topham when Always Waining won the race for the third year in a row. The same can be said for Saint Are who loved being back at Aintree. The clear message from these stories is the fact that the notion of "horses for courses" is very real and MERIGO LOVES RUNNING AT AYR  where Saturday's Scottish National is held.

As aforementioned, Merigo loves Ayr and his record at the course reads 3112121. He has a number of other factors going for him too which are clarified below:


The ground is currently good but persistent rain is forecast this week, and at worst the ground could be heavy. Merigo's form on heavy ground reads 111 so the ground is clearly not an issue whatever it comes up as.


He has run in this race  for the last two years and has finished 1st and 2nd in respective years. This year he runs off an 8lb lower mark than last year, and the form from last year's race has been strong with Beshabar going close in this year's Hennessy.


He has an abundance of stamina with a record in races over 4 miles reading 112. He won his last race over an inadequate 3 miles purely due to the fact that he outstayed his rival...and that it was at Ayr.


Despite being 11 he appears to be in good form if his last run is anything to go by.


With his course form being so good and with plenty being in his favour I consider him to be a fantastic each way bet for Saturday's race. The 10/1 has to be taken as I can't see it lasting for long. Over the course of the day a number of bookies have cut him to 8/1 and 9/1 and I would expect him to go off a 6/1 shot.


However, while I think he is a great bet he has plenty on his plate in what looks a very competitive race so success won't be easy. Harry The Viking is the market leader at 6/1 and his form looks bombproof. He beat Ikorodu Road in December giving weight to him and he has since placed in his next three runs which include two victories in good quality races. His form ties into the Irish National winner also as a result of him beating Four Commanders at Cheltenham who beat the Irish National winner Lion Na Bearnai in February. His National Hunt Chase performance is worthy of note also as he came second over the 4 mile distance of Saturday's race behind what looks to be a future staying star in the form of Teaforthree.


Portrait King is another who catches the eye and looks tailor made for a race like this. I would not be putting him up as a horse of interest but for the fact that there is a high chance that the rain will come and soften the ground to his liking. Following his impressive victory in the Eider over Saturday's distance, the trainer was quoted saying that he wouldn't run him again this season if the ground was too quick. If the forecast is right I expect him to start and he looks a huge danger as he on an upward curve and has bags of stamina. A line through him forces me to mention Posh Bird who came second in the Eider. She disappointed in the Midlands National but that was not her true form. She comes into the race with a nice weight swing with Portrait King  and at 25/1 she is very interesting. However she could have been beaten by any amount of lengths by Portrait King and I'd rather side with the more progressive gelding.


Any Currency is another one of interest however I've never really liked him as he just keeps running through beaten horses and has no turn of foot. He could easily finish in the places but I cant see him ever challenging for the lead at any stage if turning up.






So there is a fairly comprehensive early look at the Scottish National and at his current price of 10/1 Merigo has to be the best bet in the race hands down.
By:
Facts
When: 16 Apr 12 18:17
Happy
By:
Rod Tidwell
When: 16 Apr 12 18:21
BBC has rain forecast at Ayr every day this week.

I was gutted Any Currency didnt make it into National field but with Martin Keighley confirming this is now the aim I have to wade in at 25s. Abbeybraney and Captain Americo also big prices in belief there will be some cut and weights will rise to get them in handicap
By:
TINnotaTON
When: 16 Apr 12 18:33
lol IC "TINTONIAN" Laugh
the merigo train is on its way..had to be there or thereabouts
By:
IC superstar
When: 16 Apr 12 18:36
Aplogies TINnotaTon, was in a bit of a rush and didn't read it rightWhoops

Hopefully Timmy Murphy will be up again and will galvanise him up the straight to fend off Portrait King (if it is soft), Ikorodu and Harry the Viking!
By:
TINnotaTON
When: 16 Apr 12 18:42
would be very confident on soft/heavy, but it was good ground last year so no bother, good luck all with your selections.
By:
Facts
When: 16 Apr 12 18:49
I feel as strongly about Merigo on Sat. - as i did about Always Waining last Friday in The Topham Happy
By:
Tucho
When: 16 Apr 12 19:00
Hopefully Timmy Murphy will be up again

Didn't he give him an AWFUL ride last year though? Totally got the horse beat imo, Merigo should be on for a Scottish National hattrick here.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 16 Apr 12 19:31
I think Knockara Beau has been crying out for a trip like this for a long time. Although not sure he is as well handicapped as Merigo appears to be.
By:
Rod Tidwell
When: 16 Apr 12 19:39
Agree GoldCupWinner but I think its quite conceivable he will end up with top weight in this
By:
fabracetrends
When: 16 Apr 12 19:44
The Scottish Grand National
10 Year Trends
Class – 10/10 winners had won a chase at class 3 or higher.
Last Time Out – 10/10 finished in the first 6 last time out.
Runs – 10/10 had run between 3 – 6 times that season.
Distance – 9/10 had won over at least 3 miles.
Since Last Run – 9/10 had run within the last 2 months.
Weight – 9/10 carried 10st 9lbs or less.
Official Rating – 9/10 had an official rating of 143 or lower.
Experience – 8/10 had run at least 10 times over fences.
Starting Price – 8/10 had a starting price of 12/1 or higher. The Favourite last won in 2000.
Trainers – Ferdy Murphy has won the race twice in the last 10 years.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 16 Apr 12 20:54
After looking further, Merigo does seem to be very solid. He must go close and can't see any reason why he wouldn't.
By:
Facts
When: 16 Apr 12 21:03
LaughAt this rate Merigo will be a short priced fav. for the race come Sat!!
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 16 Apr 12 21:27
Had a look through them stats and found some surprising results.

Only 3 entries meet every stat above, they are

GARLETON
ABBEYBRANEY
BALLYFITZ


All three are likely to be bigger than 12/1, all three will carry less than 10-9, all three have won a class 3 chase or higher (Admittedly Ballyfitz was back in 2008), etc etc

4 others score 9/10 of the above stats
IKORODU ROAD - ran 7 times this season, likely sp less than 12/1
PORTRAIT KING - will be dead on 2 months since last run and has only ever ran 6 times over fences, stat says 10
MERIGO - Only stat he does not meet is the under 12/1 likely sp!
MAC AEDA - Has only ever had 6 chase starts
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 16 Apr 12 21:32
Does the SP stat really have any relevance at all?
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 16 Apr 12 21:37
Probably not, but seems a strange one as its 8 out of the last 10 renewals were started at bigger than 12/1! In every year i am guessing there would have been steamers, the one that has to win, the best horse in the race etc etc and in 8 out of 10 a relative outsider has won. So this is why i included it.

I am happy enough, having already backed 3 out of the 7 posted above and the remaining 4 can be backed at at least 33/1!
Page 1 of 3  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com