Horse Antepost
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09 Apr 12
10:54
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Date Joined:
10 Mar 03
I started making my books on these two races at the same time. I'm now laying (occasional) bets on the 2000gns that take out
over £500. I'm still struggling to take 2 and 3 quid bets on the 1000gns. Why the big difference?
over £500. I'm still struggling to take 2 and 3 quid bets on the 1000gns. Why the big difference?
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Replies: 44
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Largely because your odds aren't big enough for the 1000, Pete
 I quite fancy a few Oaks bets but the prices on here are a joke! |
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The alternative view is:
media coverage trainers' talk distrust of filies murky oppo (1000) clarity of form (2000) etc. |
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On balance I think I'll go with my first answer though....
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Thanks HM. You're right I suppose.
If BF would let me have my grand national money I might become a bit more sporting. Cause and effect. |
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every year is different last year it was completely the other way round
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Interesting you say that sinfin. Why do you think that is? Just the "shape" of the market?
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i make a large book every year and it just seems that every year is different but its getting harder to make a book since many now go direct to the race mainly the 1000 guineas
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and the fact that the first part of your food chain is collapsing ... bookies antepost odds on these races are shaved way too much now leading to those risk takers and backers such as myself drastically cutting their outlays and having no need to tweak their books late on. You will get more value from those who have value in this way, my prediction is they will become a dieing breed as accountancy type pricing and to lower amounts takes a hold of bookmakers markets.
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take a hold of bookmakers antepost markets.
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I see what you're saying Eric, but I reckon I'm not the only layer who would prefer to see the
right hand side of the Betfair market fill up. The thing is, we want to lay horses but we can't do it with any confidence unless the punters are showing their money. Take the Lockinge as an extreme example. There's £8 of waiting bets on the horses other than Frankel. I've taken a few quid at 1.26 because I feel that's a fair price, but I can't keep taking money on one horse without laying something else. I get no feedback from the market if there's not a market. |
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There is also the problem of connections blatantly lieing about targets more than ever with the markets in mind and misleading statements from leading trainers about prominent horses welfare that are knocking backers confidence in placing decent amounts on.
Personally I also have suspicions some national hunt connections are deliberately putting punters onto backing future non runners at times god knows whether they have accounts and arrangements with bookmakers as payback for this satchel filling. Dont suppose we will ever know as this glaring compromising relationship isnt investigated. Doesnt make me want to invest thousands on the racing markets with these clowns now when there are other options that's for sure. |
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Another issue you have on here re the flat is Ballydoyle horses and those on the markets here such as essexguy from Ireland who seem to get inside information on them and lay the @rse off them before they are declared out. I have been stung by this and I'm sure many others on here arent keen to fund these lot.
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Pete, I have tried leaving money up but it just does not get done. Not asking for mad odds either. All it does is freeze the drift and encourage the obligatory £2 request undercutting me.
There's a whole load of bots, arbers, bots, traders and fooking BOTS on the a/p markets now and it's ruining the game. You take a horse down and the bot who lays it immediately puts up a back price for the entire amount at slightly bigger odds. I can guarantee you the bot owner barely knows the horse exists, let alone who trains it or why I'm backing it. The resultant back request does nothing more then freeze the drift. He doesn't get done, the horse doesn't bounce back, I can't go in again - it's a bloody shambles on here atm. You've also got the BF/Purple tracking bot that wipes out everything as soon as you play a horse...then there's the 32Red bot playing the purple site, all the little traders thinking they're canny getting their £10 all green book...the whole thing is a right old stinking mess. TBH, I wish they'd all FO and leave layers like you and backers like me to pit our wits together. |
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Punters trying to get a few quid on here as their only interest in an antepost race must be absolutely dwarfed by those who have a decent antepost bet on already with bookmakers and are either looking to lay off or back others to cover their book (especially affecting the volume of bets on here on outsiders). The bookies is the ONLY place you can get a decent bet on antepost until very close to the race when the exchanges fill up with bookmaker money.
The factors I mentioned above are affecting the confidence of these very same bookmaker antepost backers who are placing the larger amounts which has been keeping your food chain going on here, releasing value into the markets. Without them you are just left with scavengers like yourselves. |
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..and the bots of course.
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Headmaster,
You flatter me. I'm a small-time layer. The only place I fit your description is that I'm making a book in the old-fashioned way i.e. I hardly ever bet a horse, it's all lay lay lay. Once my book is up-and-running (provided BF allow exposure offset) then I can lay good size bets without much regard to the price... like I say, old-fashioned, small-percentage turf-accounting. I programmed my own "bot" but all it does is the boring bits for me. It's not designed to do any trading at all. I just don't want to sit here 20 hours a day! TBH if it was you and me pitting our wits against each other, I'd be bankrupt by now. My system works best when there's loads of liquidity and all the information is available to everyone. Your system works best when there's loads of liquidity and all the information is available to everyone. You win by analysing the information better than most. I win by taking a few pennies in the pound as I pass the money from the losers to the winners. Is that about right? |
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Just take a look at the thread started by elisjohn begging bookmakers to scythe down any remaining antepost value from the markets by going antepost NRNB. They are your biggest problem the markets will be demolished even more on here if that takes hold. Decent sized punters would wait to the day or if they have sense not bet at all. End result the start of the food chain you depend upon on here dieing.
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Eric,
I'm not sure you're right. From my point of view I'd rather lay a bigger price and keep the money when they don't run. Otherwise it's very hard to budget and calculate a book. It's different for the high street bookies because they get the money up-front. (I think the days when ante-post bets were only settled after the race have largely disappeared along with the old credit accounts.) All the different types of market have their place, provided all parties understand the rules at the time the bet is struck. I've no time for people who cry and whinge about the lack of information or the fact that a horse may or may not have been entered or any other excuse. You put your money where your mouth is when it come to ante-post. |
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So you are agreeing with me then.
Antepost punters will put their money, a lot more than you are risking, where their mouth is. However this will only happen if there is value in doing so with all factors taken into account. The factors I list in posts above are now making it far less likely bookmaker antepost punters will kick off the food chain you depend on by placing positions as there is little or no value for them compared to the risk. Itis only getting worse. |
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Bookmaker punter lays off 200 stake on here to a Betfair backer giving them some of their bookmaker bet value and effectively pushing the weak antepost market price out to a v good value price to lay off that amount.
The Betfair backer scavenger like The Headmaster who took this amount at a v good value price from the bookmaker punter now looks to lay it off at a lower price on here attracting other Betfair backers. Other horses in the race prices contract as the original horse was pushed out giving opportunities to other Betfair layer scavengers like PeteTheBloke. The day of race approaches and bookmaker punter covers book on outsiders giving opportunities to Betfair layer scavengers like PeteTheBloke. Remove the bookmaker antepost punter and the pack of antepost cards and food chain falls down. |
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The punter should have a collective voice on board British racing. Nobody contributes more to the game than Joe Public, and nobody is represented less, or disrepected more. One firm has 5 horses at 8/1 or less for next years Gold Cup. We should have avoice to speak out on issues that effect us.
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You are left with Betfair backer scavengers like The Headmaster claiming in his posts above that the prices are not good enough to take and the Betfair layer scavengers like PeteTheBloke claiming in his posts above there are no backers for outsiders and admitting to the Headmaster that he aint laying good value prices for the 1000 Guineas. Reason as already explained is neither scavenger wants to give value on here, they are here to feed off the value injected into these Betfair markets by the bookmaker antepost punter who takes on the initial risk. Trouble is he is losing interest due to the mass of negative factors he is looking at now.
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The Difference Between 1000gns and 2000gns
Is the answer 1000 guineas? Invaribly find the same every year. Last year probably different with Frankel being such a short priced jolly. |
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eric/yourbestmate/kirk, has no idea about me Pete, although after a decade he really should know a little bit.
Most of my biggest wins on here have come about through backing horses the high streets have barely heard of, let alone priced up to the likes of eric......so I don't know what he's on about. We dig 'em out, get 'em added and punt them. By the time you've heard of the horse, eric, I'm already full to bursting so don't worry about my place in the "food chain". In fact, I'm sure you will have benefitted from my work many times down the years....although at a greatly reduced price, naturally. No need to thank me. Would you like to propose another theory as the last one's honking....  |
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pete back to your original post...
the reason i see for no liquidity in the 1000 market is generally the same every year, because as always a lot of fillies form doesn't work out and a lot of them don't go on causing punters to be sceptical....anyway the market is poor every year until punters know, the horses well being...but from a personal point of view you shouldn't take fillies form to literally where as the colts are far more reliable... i suppose what i'm trying to say, is fillies can improve massively from 2 - 3 where as colts generally less so especially when talking in regards guineas runners anyway...also collateral form in regards colts is far more reliable... take last years 1000 guineas winner who improved from just a mere listed race to win last year race...people looking at collateral form could make themselves look quite silly as no horse in the first 7 won a race subsequently...like i say a lot of fillies don't go on and for punters can be quite a headache when parting with there cash sorry for harping on but that is the way i see it... |
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Your first post where you arent being offered the prices you want for your book on the Oaks totally bombs your last partially accurate, partially omissing honking post. The food chain is not helping you out thanks for proving my points re you being a Betfair backer scavenger.
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christ Eric, you really did get out on the wrong side of bed this morning didn't you? Yet another forumite you have spoken complete nonsense about.
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Harry, is there any evidence to back that up ?
Or have you forgotten the likes of Makfi and Cockney Rebel? |
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Thanks Harry. I've been hearing that about fillies for years. I suppose there is some basis for it.
The perception certainly seems to be enough for the market to be a lot weaker, anyway. |
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sint did you read anything i said??
pete was asking why the big difference in the 1000 market compared with the 2000 and why no liquidity and that was my opinion why... your talkng about 2000 winners |
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I thought I did harry!
 Just wondering what the evidence is for Colts form being more relaible at 3 than a fillies, that is all. |
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no worries
just check what i've just written on the 1000 thread, hope that will help... |
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Interesting stuff, but I'm not convinced that there is any significant difference between colts and fillies in terms of whether their form works out, whether they train on from two to three, or even whether one sex is more reliable than the other. I have generally found the 1000 to be an easier race to fathom than the 2000 Guineas because the trends are clearer (i.e. you know what type of filly you're looking for to win the race, the form profile etc) and because there are usually fewer potentially top class fillies each year than potentially top class colts, as there are fewer fillies than colts in training (particularly with the big breeding operations like Coolmore). For some reason, which has always been a mystery to me, most antepost punters seem to prefer the 2000 Guineas, which is generally harder race in which to pick the winner months in advance.
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Still woeful liquidity just over 2 weeks to the race. Lack of information on runners and several changes of plan from connections. Mostly no injection of value on here for the Betfair scavengers from bookmaker antepost punters due to the removal of value at source.
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The 1000 gns is for fillies only, the 2000 gns is for fillies and colts.
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theres i week to go and theres 300 quid in total waiting to back horses in the 2000 this must b an all time low
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Which is a few quid more than there is on the 1000gns.
There's some money changing hands on the left-hand side but no one could call them strong markets. I suppose it's hard for punters and layers alike when the horses have had so little public exposure. There was a time when your average Gns winner had been to Royal Ascot as a 2yo. Or am I imagining that? |
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I can only remember Henrythenavigator in the last 20 years Pete for the 2000
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