Horse Antepost
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Finally the Flat season comes round again and I can turn my attention to my main area of punting which is Turf Handicaps. My focus is always on the better class races and almost exclusively ones for the older horses. I will not be looking at Nurseries, 3yo Only or Mares races.
The selection method is based on elimination of runners in order to create a short list from which to make a selection (or more often selections). I will often be betting more than one runner in a race, sometimes win only or in the place market too depending on price, number of places etc. Anyway, I will just get on with it and see how I get on.
I will pretty much just post up my own personal notes that I write as I study the race and then give a conclusion and suggested bets. I am a price trader, I must admit, so I say now that I will frequently be looking to improve my odds pre race and in play by laying.
First race is Doncaster Saturday 2.05:
WILLIAM HILL SPRING MILE (HANDICAP) (CLASS 3) (4yo+) Winner £24,900 22 runners 1m Good CH4
OR PPR +/- Draw Comment
Kyllachy Star 90 102 +12, 7 Not won FTO before, draw not great, normally needs a bend
Crown Counsel 89 98 + 9 15 Like front run, had a prep run, contender
Weapon Of Choice 89 93 +4 22 well drawn but needs improvement on previous efforts
Kiwi Bay 89 95 +6 17 never won before June, not likely
Leviathan 89 97 +8 13 needs good to soft or softer
Perfect Cracker 88 --- n/a 9 no turf form
Redvers 88 --- n/a 1 distance, going all against him and assuming a bad draw
Prince Of Burma 88 --- n/a 6 no real turf form have to be against
Snow Bay 88 103 +15 19 has won FTO before, bit older than typical winner, race handy/pro
Kingscroft 88 96 +6 10 unlikely winner
Reve De Nuit 87 94 +7 18 had a prep, seemingly needs soft, decent draw, dangerous floater n
Mont Ras 87 92 + 5 8 needs to improve, draw not great
Kay Gee Be 87 97 +10 14 fto win in 2011, strong contender, shortlist
Miami Gator 87 89 + 2 3 badly in, dismissed
Arabian Spirit 86 97 +11 11 prep run, bang on stiff mark, middle draw on list but a bit of a surprise
Pat´s Legacy 86 95 +9 4 keen front runner, low draw, 7lb claimer, big No. in small field ???
First Post 86 93 +7 21 prep run, decent draw, cut needed
Shamdarley 85 90 +5 16 prob more to come as only 4 but no evidence ahead of mark
Norse Blues 85 91 +6 2 bad draw, stiff mark dismissed
Mullins Way 85 90 +5 5 not likely
Captain Bertie 84 96 +12 12 massive run on 3yo debut, went backwards after, monitor market
Tevez 84 96 +12 20 often slowly away but well in if they go hard, in play trade poss.
Conclusion: in 2011 all the action was up the stands rail which suited those with a high draw and I am going to make the assumption that the same will be true again (this could be wrong) and looking at those drawn high I have chosen these horses to be backed. All are lower than when running well in decent races at this trip on similar going, come from decent yards and are pretty uncomplicated
Crown Counsel: likely to sit prominently and is only 4lb higher than when winning Class 2 Hcp at Haydock. Fast going will suit and has had a prep. Trading advice: back pre race and lay liability in play
Snow Bay: don't know how they managed to get him 5lb lower than when an excellent second at York so he is well in, another front runner with a high draw. Could be gambled on if thought ready. Trading Advice: back pre race early and lay in play, back in the to be placed market
Kay Gee Bee: 4lb lower than when second to Confront, fair draw if no major bias on the track, decent mark and decent form. Trading Advice: Back Pre race, lay in play
Additional Mentions:
Tevez bolted up over 7 furlongs at Leicester when the front runners went too quick. He is habitually a slow starter but can run on very strongly and he does have a high draw. If the front runners go off very quickly indeed he could benefit if they stop around the 2 furlong pole. Maybe one to back in play for small stakes at a massive price if there is a gallop on (could be a speed duel up front)
Captain Bertie ran a cracker in the Esher Cup on 3yo debut and never reproduced the effort. He could be exceptionally well treated off only 84 as a 4yo. Stable form not been great and they may all be needing a run. Definitely to be kept an eye on.
Early Prices:
Kay Gee Bee 14/1
Crown Counsel 16/1
Snow Bay 16/1
(Captain Bertie 12/1, Tevez 28/1)
I will take 1 point win each of my 3 selections now and will recalculate nearer the off
The selection method is based on elimination of runners in order to create a short list from which to make a selection (or more often selections). I will often be betting more than one runner in a race, sometimes win only or in the place market too depending on price, number of places etc. Anyway, I will just get on with it and see how I get on.
I will pretty much just post up my own personal notes that I write as I study the race and then give a conclusion and suggested bets. I am a price trader, I must admit, so I say now that I will frequently be looking to improve my odds pre race and in play by laying.
First race is Doncaster Saturday 2.05:
WILLIAM HILL SPRING MILE (HANDICAP) (CLASS 3) (4yo+) Winner £24,900 22 runners 1m Good CH4
OR PPR +/- Draw Comment
Kyllachy Star 90 102 +12, 7 Not won FTO before, draw not great, normally needs a bend
Crown Counsel 89 98 + 9 15 Like front run, had a prep run, contender
Weapon Of Choice 89 93 +4 22 well drawn but needs improvement on previous efforts
Kiwi Bay 89 95 +6 17 never won before June, not likely
Leviathan 89 97 +8 13 needs good to soft or softer
Perfect Cracker 88 --- n/a 9 no turf form
Redvers 88 --- n/a 1 distance, going all against him and assuming a bad draw
Prince Of Burma 88 --- n/a 6 no real turf form have to be against
Snow Bay 88 103 +15 19 has won FTO before, bit older than typical winner, race handy/pro
Kingscroft 88 96 +6 10 unlikely winner
Reve De Nuit 87 94 +7 18 had a prep, seemingly needs soft, decent draw, dangerous floater n
Mont Ras 87 92 + 5 8 needs to improve, draw not great
Kay Gee Be 87 97 +10 14 fto win in 2011, strong contender, shortlist
Miami Gator 87 89 + 2 3 badly in, dismissed
Arabian Spirit 86 97 +11 11 prep run, bang on stiff mark, middle draw on list but a bit of a surprise
Pat´s Legacy 86 95 +9 4 keen front runner, low draw, 7lb claimer, big No. in small field ???
First Post 86 93 +7 21 prep run, decent draw, cut needed
Shamdarley 85 90 +5 16 prob more to come as only 4 but no evidence ahead of mark
Norse Blues 85 91 +6 2 bad draw, stiff mark dismissed
Mullins Way 85 90 +5 5 not likely
Captain Bertie 84 96 +12 12 massive run on 3yo debut, went backwards after, monitor market
Tevez 84 96 +12 20 often slowly away but well in if they go hard, in play trade poss.
Conclusion: in 2011 all the action was up the stands rail which suited those with a high draw and I am going to make the assumption that the same will be true again (this could be wrong) and looking at those drawn high I have chosen these horses to be backed. All are lower than when running well in decent races at this trip on similar going, come from decent yards and are pretty uncomplicated
Crown Counsel: likely to sit prominently and is only 4lb higher than when winning Class 2 Hcp at Haydock. Fast going will suit and has had a prep. Trading advice: back pre race and lay liability in play
Snow Bay: don't know how they managed to get him 5lb lower than when an excellent second at York so he is well in, another front runner with a high draw. Could be gambled on if thought ready. Trading Advice: back pre race early and lay in play, back in the to be placed market
Kay Gee Bee: 4lb lower than when second to Confront, fair draw if no major bias on the track, decent mark and decent form. Trading Advice: Back Pre race, lay in play
Additional Mentions:
Tevez bolted up over 7 furlongs at Leicester when the front runners went too quick. He is habitually a slow starter but can run on very strongly and he does have a high draw. If the front runners go off very quickly indeed he could benefit if they stop around the 2 furlong pole. Maybe one to back in play for small stakes at a massive price if there is a gallop on (could be a speed duel up front)
Captain Bertie ran a cracker in the Esher Cup on 3yo debut and never reproduced the effort. He could be exceptionally well treated off only 84 as a 4yo. Stable form not been great and they may all be needing a run. Definitely to be kept an eye on.
Early Prices:
Kay Gee Bee 14/1
Crown Counsel 16/1
Snow Bay 16/1
(Captain Bertie 12/1, Tevez 28/1)
I will take 1 point win each of my 3 selections now and will recalculate nearer the off
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Race 2 is the Lincoln:
WILLIAM HILL LINCOLN (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) Winner £62,250 22 runners 1m OR PPR +/- Draw Comment Edinburgh Knight 104 102 -2 2 Bad draw, topweight, stiff mark, very unlikely Eton Forever 103 110 +7 7 Low draw negative, needs improve a few pounds, on balance not likely Smarty Socks 102 108 +6 22 weighted right up, reg big hcp runner, 8yo bit old for this, good draw, better at 7 f?? Man Of Action 101 107 +6 20 blinkers 1st time, good draw, turn of foot, hold up performer, lightly raced for age Start Right 101 108 +7 18 3 prep runs meydan, deep closer, need strong pace and a clear run, short list Mia´s Boy 101 103 +2 14 handicaps not really his thing, not for me Field Of Dream 100 94 -6 5 tough task here, low draw too Cocozza 99 --- n/a 15 hcp debut, impossible to know but on balance likely to be badly in, dismiss Pintura 99 105 +6 13 reg big hcp runner, stiff mark but capable of bold show, needs to improve not impossible Fury 98 --- n/a 9 classy sort, ran in top races, needs a bit of cut, hcp debut, not for me as usual Askaud 97 95 -2 1 very stiff mark, low draw, dismiss Lowther 97 107 +10 8 potential from this mark, need strong gallop, luck in running, need the run? draw? Clockmaker 96 95 -1 10 very little worthwhile turf form, dismissed Mull Of Killough 96 96 0 21 turf form not up to standard, well drawn, running well AW, could win but not a bet Brae Hill 95 104 +9 12 middle draw could be tough, prominent runner, 2nd 2011 Lincoln same mark, run well Don´t Call Me 95 101 +6 17 gonna need further or softer, dismissed Light From Mars 95 106 +11 19 on a good mark, well drawn, had prep, short list Stevie Thunder 95 99 +4 4 stiff mark, unlikely winner Shavansky 91 101 +10 11 mid draw, 8yo, unlikely and best form on g/s Amitola 91 88 -3 3 non stayer imo, place lay Barren Brook 90 95 +5 6 need further, progress this season, draw looks wrong for him, another day Dubai Dynamo 90 101 +11 16 will need a frenetic pace and some luck, 2 prep runs may not be enough but could go well Short List: Light From Mars: my clear stand out candidate with the OR, trip, going and draw all perfect for him. Unlike last year has had the benefit of a run to blow the cobwebs away (won 2nd start 2011) Brae Hill: possibly vulnerable from the mark but can hit the frame with a clear run, draw still a question mark Start Right: not really my cuppa tea and will need to improve and have everything go well Dubai Dynamo: took a few runs to get going last season, would have preferred him off 89, jockey gets them running, decent draw, strong finisher, big price so cheap bet Man of Action: the one in the race with the chance to be a fair bit better than shown so far especially if the blinkers work. Strictly for the method he is not a bet. Has demonstrated a turn of foot Conclusions: The two topweights drawn on the far side look up against it, Eton Forever does have a progressive profile but he needs to be a Group 2 horse to win here (need 115 roughly to go close). Handicap debutants are always to be considered dangerous, especially Fury, but in this race they are dismissed. Hcp form is likely to prove crucial in here. Pintura is a solid runner and can go well but he would have a clear chance off 5 or 6lb lower with 99 looking high enough to stop him. Mull of Killough is very dark and although it is policy not to back these he could go well. Betting: Wow. Just looked at the market and I am solidly against the first 4 (Eton Forever, Fury, Cocozza, Edinburgh Knight) which either means I have got it all wrong or there is tremendous value to be had in the rest of the market. The prices below are only for guide, hope to get better when I search or Betfair. Light From Mars 1.5 pt ew @ 25/1 Start Right 1 point win @ 12/1 Dubai Dynamo 0.5pt ew @ 40/1 Man of Action 0.5 pt ew @ 14/1 May add some more when more market info and draw bias becomes apparent. It is very early days to be betting on the flat and there will be many better opportunities as the season progresses. Those which I designate +10 and higher that have had a recent run and shown they are ready will provide the best bets. |
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Good write up judo.
One thing I'm slightly confused about is whether these are genuinely your fancies for the race or simply at the prices represent the best opportunity for trading? |
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Why is a low draw a negative? I seem to remember that last year there were some concerns about the strip of ground for lower drawn horses being patchy and that seemed to be the excuse John Gosden used for pulling the favourite out but previous to that the winners were drawn 1,9,12,13,23,6,7,1,1 so I would say a low draw isn't necessarily a bad thing.
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One thing I'm slightly confused about is whether these are genuinely your fancies for the race or simply at the prices represent the best opportunity for trading?
There is a method to the analysis and you will find that the selections will be the ones with the highest positive numbers in the "+/-" column as long as the other typical factors indicate they have a decent chance (going, trip, class etc etc). "Fancies" is not really how I look at it to be honest - the ones I will be most bullish about are the ones I dismiss as unlikely winners. Virtually any that receive a +5 or higher in the +/- column can certainly be considered potential winners. These types of races are wide open of course. Anyway, more will become evident as I post the selections Why is a low draw a negative? I seem to remember that last year there were some concerns about the strip of ground for lower drawn horses being patchy and that seemed to be the excuse John Gosden used for pulling the favourite out but previous to that the winners were drawn 1,9,12,13,23,6,7,1,1 so I would say a low draw isn't necessarily a bad thing. I have just assumed that the high draw will be an advantage and there is every chance that it could be nothing of the sort. I will certainly be paying attention to the Spring Mile to see if there is any bias at all and I may very well change my mind in the light of that new information. Historically at Doncaster the draw has favoured the stands rail on fast going and the far rail on going softer than good and because the going is likely to be riding on the fast side I am concentrating on the high numbers. Can only be fingers crossed until the Spring Mile is run although I have to say that in that race all the best horses appear to have a high draw and that could skew the result. The whole thing is an approach designed to gain an edge in the market in the long run. The fundamental part is the analysis of handicap performance and looking for those that have the best chance compared to the mark they run off in the race compared to previous hcp races. Snow Bay is a perfect example - he is 5lb lower than when running second in a good race at York which means IF he can run anywhere near that level of form he has the ability to go very close off this mark. |
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Judorick
nice write ups mate,just a word of caution about the Spring Mile,there is alot of pace far side(low numbers,so it will be interesting how it onfolds. Good luck,i am sitting firmly on the fence for this one.lol |
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well I think all the pace is on the stands side in the Spring Mile myself and on the far side in the Lincoln
first shots in a long season |
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well thats what makes it so interesting differing opinions, but my view is,you have Miami Gator,Pats Legacy and Norse Blues drawn 3,4,2 so it wont be a slow pace far side.lol
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Certainly Pat's Legacy could be interesting, he has a +9 against his OR on my analysis and a 7lb claimer. However, the performance that gave him the big number came in a 5 runner race where he dictated a steady pace from the front and that won't be happening in this race. He might well win the race on the far side but I am convinced the better horses and the track bias are all on the stands side.
Miami Gator looks on a stiff mark and really needs more cut and I can't have him. Norse Blues looks a short runner and probably better over 7 furlongs round a bend. |
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judorick
i wasn't suggesting i fancied the three named,just pointing out they could well put the pace in the race on the far side. Anyway as said good luck with your bets i shall keep my powder dry |
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Thanks for sharing your analysis judo, especially interesting for a diehard NH-man like myself. Will follow with interest :)
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you are very welcome thieves, I see a successful thread holder on the main racing forum also likes Snow Bay (Robster, "For The New Year" thread) and i really do like him. The York form would be easily enough for him to win here
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I too like Snow Bay and Light From Mars of yours judo. Also like Mull of Killough and also did Fury AP in the Lincoln but his draw couldn't be worse. I have also done Amitola on here at 120 at very small stakes as he just might get a very easy lead, strange as it is for this race.
There is a lot of interest in Shamdarley on one of the other threads for the Spring Mile and whilst he was of of interest originally, can't help thinking he may struggle to lay up over this trip as he was doing his best work at the end of his races over further at the end of last year. Believe he will be much bigger at some stage in running so have put up a small bet at silly odds that may or may not get matched. |
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Fair point Judo, good luck for today. I am going for Pintura and Don't Call Me with a saver on Eton Forever.
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Well my first comment about the Spring Mile is about the going which appears to have been massively over watered. I don't see the need for it myself - it is definitely riding on the slow side of good - and they have put 18mm of water on in a few days. Very annoying because it should have been fast which is what I based my calculations on.
Secondly, I don't know why the jockeys on those drawn high turned left coming out of the stalls and came up the middle. That was a suicidal move in my opinion. I was fully expecting Snow Bay and Crown Counsel to hug the stands rail. Saying all that Captain Bertie was a massively unlucky loser Will have to have another look at the Lincoln now |
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For the Lincoln have added:
Shavansky 1 point @ 36 Lowther 1 point @ 70 Barren Brook 1 point @ 27 |
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Short List:
Light From Mars: my clear stand out candidate with the OR, trip, going and draw all perfect for him. Unlike last year has had the benefit of a run to blow the cobwebs away (won 2nd start 2011) Brae Hill: possibly vulnerable from the mark but can hit the frame with a clear run, draw still a question mark Start Right: not really my cuppa tea and will need to improve and have everything go well Dubai Dynamo: took a few runs to get going last season, would have preferred him off 89, jockey gets them running, decent draw, strong finisher, big price so cheap bet Man of Action: the one in the race with the chance to be a fair bit better than shown so far especially if the blinkers work. Strictly for the method he is not a bet. Has demonstrated a turn of foot Conclusions: The two topweights drawn on the far side look up against it, Eton Forever does have a progressive profile but he needs to be a Group 2 horse to win here (need 115 roughly to go close). Handicap debutants are always to be considered dangerous, especially Fury, but in this race they are dismissed. Hcp form is likely to prove crucial in here. Pintura is a solid runner and can go well but he would have a clear chance off 5 or 6lb lower with 99 looking high enough to stop him. Mull of Killough is very dark and although it is policy not to back these he could go well. |
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tbf to the coc the times do not suggest the going is on the slow side,the licoln was run in a time just over a second quicker than last years race (fast 1.14 today)
I am not a lover of coc's but think he has done a decent job with the going today |
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I am surprised that there is a race for me at Doncaster but it turns out this race is worth investigation:
3:20 Donc Sunday NEW WILLIAM HILL IPHONE APP HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-100) Winner £12,938 22 runners 6f Good ATR Short List: Desert Law +11 Johannes +10 These two have both demonstrated enough to win off their current marks. Desert Law ran a series of nice handicap races last season and is only 1lb higher than when a good second at Ascot and Johannes is on a very good mark of 87. He managed some excellent placings in good races off marks in the mid 90s last season and is very fairly treated if ready to go. The Remainder: The next highest all have a maximum of a +7 vs their OR according to my analysis and there is not a lot between them. Several like Swilly Ferry and others would have chances if bouncing back to their 2010 form but I can't be betting them on that basis. betting: Desert Law back 2 points @ 6 Johannes back 1 point @ 19 |