Horse Antepost
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I realise these will be manipulated by Phil Smith for the 'Aintree Factor' but here are what the weights would be based on ratings ate entry (may have changed since) but helps see whats likely to carry what etc.
1 Synchronised (IRE) 9 Jonjo O'Neill 168 11.10
2 Weird Al (IRE) 9 D McCain Jnr 164 11.06
3 Midnight Chase 10 N P Mulholland 163 11.05
4 BallaBriggs (IRE) 11 D McCain Jnr 160 11.02
5 Burton Port (IRE) 8 N J Henderson 160 11.02
6 Black Apalachi (IRE) 13 D T Hughes 159 11.01
7 Calgary Bay (IRE) 9 Miss H C Knight 159 11.01
8 Neptune Collonges (FR) 11 P F Nicholls 159 11.01
9 Planet of Sound 10 P J Hobbs 159 11.01
10 Uncle Junior (IRE) 11 W P Mullins 156 10.12
11 Deep Purple 11 Evan Williams 154 10.10
12 Scotsirish (IRE) 11 W P Mullins 154 10.10
13 Junior 9 D Pipe 153 10.09
14 Quantitativeeasing (IRE) 7 N J Henderson 153 10.09
15 Roberto Goldback (IRE) 10 D T Hughes 153 10.09
16 Tartak (FR) 9 Tim Vaughan 153 10.09
17 Blazing Tempo (IRE) 8 W P Mullins 152 10.08
18 Little Josh (IRE) 10 N A Twiston-Davies 152 10.08
19 Apt Approach (IRE) 9 W P Mullins 150 10.06
20 Chicago Grey (IRE) 9 G Elliott 150 10.06
21 Quel Esprit (FR) 8 W P Mullins 150 10.06
22 Tatenen (FR) 8 R Rowe 150 10.06
23 According To Pete 11 J M Jefferson 149 10.05
24 Shakalakaboomboom (IRE) 8 N J Henderson 149 10.05
25 West End Rocker (IRE) 10 A King 149 10.05
26 Alfa Beat (IRE) 8 John Joseph Hanlon 148 10.04
27 Hector's Choice (FR) 8 R Lee 148 10.04
28 Massini's Maguire (IRE) 11 D Pipe 148 10.04
29 Psycho (IRE) 11 A J Martin 148 10.04
30 Rare Bob (IRE) 10 D T Hughes 148 10.04
31 Roulez Cool 9 R Waley-Cohen 148 10.04
32 The Midnight Club (IRE) 11 W P Mullins 148 10.04
33 Always Right (IRE) 10 John Wade 147 10.03
34 Arbor Supreme (IRE) 10 Jonjo O'Neill 147 10.03
35 Cappa Bleu (IRE) 10 Evan Williams 147 10.03
36 Cooldine (IRE) 10 W P Mullins 147 10.03
37 Crescent Island (IRE) 9 N A Twiston-Davies 147 10.03
38 Mon Mome (FR) 12 Miss V Williams 145 10.01
39 Northern Alliance (IRE) 11 A J Martin 145 10.01
40 Organisedconfusion (IRE) 7 A L T Moore 145 10.01
41 Hold On Julio (IRE) 9 A King 144 10.00
42 Vic Venturi (IRE) 12 D T Hughes 144 10.00
43 Pearlysteps 9 H D Daly 143 9.13
44 Prince De Beauchene (FR) 9 W P Mullins 143 9.13
45 Quiscover Fontaine (FR) 8 W P Mullins 143 9.13
46 Backstage 10 G Elliott 142 9.12
47 Fair Along (GER) 10 P J Hobbs 142 9.12
48 Niche Market (IRE) 11 P F Nicholls 142 9.12
49 Stewarts House (IRE) 10 Tim Vaughan 142 9.12
50 Sunnyhillboy (IRE) 9 Jonjo O'Neill 142 9.12
51 Killyglen (IRE) 10 S R B Crawford 141 9.11
52 Always Waining (IRE) 11 P Bowen 140 9.10
53 Becauseicouldntsee (IRE) 9 N F Glynn 140 9.10
54 In Compliance (IRE) 12 D T Hughes 140 9.10
55 Le Beau Bai (FR) 9 R Lee 140 9.10
56 State of Play 12 Evan Williams 140 9.10
57 Swing Bill (FR) 11 D Pipe 140 9.10
58 Tharawaat (IRE) 7 G Elliott 140 9.10
59 Postmaster 10 Tim Vaughan 139 9.09
60 The Package 9 D Pipe 139 9.09
61 Wymott (IRE) 8 D McCain Jnr 139 9.09
62 Giles Cross (IRE) 10 V R A Dartnall 138 9.08
63 Midnight Haze 10 K C Bailey 137 9.07
64 Viking Blond (FR) 7 N A Twiston-Davies 137 9.07
65 Qhilimar (FR) 8 C E Longsdon 136 9.06
66 Shakervilz (FR) 9 W P Mullins 136 9.06
67 Neptune Equester 9 B Ellison 134 9.04
68 Some Target (IRE) 8 W P Mullins 133 9.03
69 Any Currency (IRE) 9 M Keighley 131 9.01
70 Seabass (IRE) 9 T M Walsh 131 9.01
71 Treacle (IRE) 11 T J Taaffe 131 9.01
72 Hello Bud (IRE) 14 N A Twiston-Davies 130 9.00
73 Our Island (IRE) 7 Tim Vaughan 130 9.00
74 Schindler's Gold (IRE) 10 Dr R D P Newland 130 9.00
75 Abbeybraney (IRE) 11 G T Bewley 129 8.13
76 King Fontaine (IRE) 9 J M Jefferson 127 8.11
77 Saddlers Storm (IRE) 10 A J Martin 126 8.10
78 Ballyvesey (IRE) 7 P Bowen 125 8.09
79 On His Own (IRE) 8 W P Mullins 125 8.09
80 Another Palm (IRE) 7 N Meade 123 8.07
81 Minella Theatre (IRE) 9 Mrs L Hill 123 8.07
82 Smoking Aces (IRE) 8 T J Taaffe 123 8.07
1 Synchronised (IRE) 9 Jonjo O'Neill 168 11.10
2 Weird Al (IRE) 9 D McCain Jnr 164 11.06
3 Midnight Chase 10 N P Mulholland 163 11.05
4 BallaBriggs (IRE) 11 D McCain Jnr 160 11.02
5 Burton Port (IRE) 8 N J Henderson 160 11.02
6 Black Apalachi (IRE) 13 D T Hughes 159 11.01
7 Calgary Bay (IRE) 9 Miss H C Knight 159 11.01
8 Neptune Collonges (FR) 11 P F Nicholls 159 11.01
9 Planet of Sound 10 P J Hobbs 159 11.01
10 Uncle Junior (IRE) 11 W P Mullins 156 10.12
11 Deep Purple 11 Evan Williams 154 10.10
12 Scotsirish (IRE) 11 W P Mullins 154 10.10
13 Junior 9 D Pipe 153 10.09
14 Quantitativeeasing (IRE) 7 N J Henderson 153 10.09
15 Roberto Goldback (IRE) 10 D T Hughes 153 10.09
16 Tartak (FR) 9 Tim Vaughan 153 10.09
17 Blazing Tempo (IRE) 8 W P Mullins 152 10.08
18 Little Josh (IRE) 10 N A Twiston-Davies 152 10.08
19 Apt Approach (IRE) 9 W P Mullins 150 10.06
20 Chicago Grey (IRE) 9 G Elliott 150 10.06
21 Quel Esprit (FR) 8 W P Mullins 150 10.06
22 Tatenen (FR) 8 R Rowe 150 10.06
23 According To Pete 11 J M Jefferson 149 10.05
24 Shakalakaboomboom (IRE) 8 N J Henderson 149 10.05
25 West End Rocker (IRE) 10 A King 149 10.05
26 Alfa Beat (IRE) 8 John Joseph Hanlon 148 10.04
27 Hector's Choice (FR) 8 R Lee 148 10.04
28 Massini's Maguire (IRE) 11 D Pipe 148 10.04
29 Psycho (IRE) 11 A J Martin 148 10.04
30 Rare Bob (IRE) 10 D T Hughes 148 10.04
31 Roulez Cool 9 R Waley-Cohen 148 10.04
32 The Midnight Club (IRE) 11 W P Mullins 148 10.04
33 Always Right (IRE) 10 John Wade 147 10.03
34 Arbor Supreme (IRE) 10 Jonjo O'Neill 147 10.03
35 Cappa Bleu (IRE) 10 Evan Williams 147 10.03
36 Cooldine (IRE) 10 W P Mullins 147 10.03
37 Crescent Island (IRE) 9 N A Twiston-Davies 147 10.03
38 Mon Mome (FR) 12 Miss V Williams 145 10.01
39 Northern Alliance (IRE) 11 A J Martin 145 10.01
40 Organisedconfusion (IRE) 7 A L T Moore 145 10.01
41 Hold On Julio (IRE) 9 A King 144 10.00
42 Vic Venturi (IRE) 12 D T Hughes 144 10.00
43 Pearlysteps 9 H D Daly 143 9.13
44 Prince De Beauchene (FR) 9 W P Mullins 143 9.13
45 Quiscover Fontaine (FR) 8 W P Mullins 143 9.13
46 Backstage 10 G Elliott 142 9.12
47 Fair Along (GER) 10 P J Hobbs 142 9.12
48 Niche Market (IRE) 11 P F Nicholls 142 9.12
49 Stewarts House (IRE) 10 Tim Vaughan 142 9.12
50 Sunnyhillboy (IRE) 9 Jonjo O'Neill 142 9.12
51 Killyglen (IRE) 10 S R B Crawford 141 9.11
52 Always Waining (IRE) 11 P Bowen 140 9.10
53 Becauseicouldntsee (IRE) 9 N F Glynn 140 9.10
54 In Compliance (IRE) 12 D T Hughes 140 9.10
55 Le Beau Bai (FR) 9 R Lee 140 9.10
56 State of Play 12 Evan Williams 140 9.10
57 Swing Bill (FR) 11 D Pipe 140 9.10
58 Tharawaat (IRE) 7 G Elliott 140 9.10
59 Postmaster 10 Tim Vaughan 139 9.09
60 The Package 9 D Pipe 139 9.09
61 Wymott (IRE) 8 D McCain Jnr 139 9.09
62 Giles Cross (IRE) 10 V R A Dartnall 138 9.08
63 Midnight Haze 10 K C Bailey 137 9.07
64 Viking Blond (FR) 7 N A Twiston-Davies 137 9.07
65 Qhilimar (FR) 8 C E Longsdon 136 9.06
66 Shakervilz (FR) 9 W P Mullins 136 9.06
67 Neptune Equester 9 B Ellison 134 9.04
68 Some Target (IRE) 8 W P Mullins 133 9.03
69 Any Currency (IRE) 9 M Keighley 131 9.01
70 Seabass (IRE) 9 T M Walsh 131 9.01
71 Treacle (IRE) 11 T J Taaffe 131 9.01
72 Hello Bud (IRE) 14 N A Twiston-Davies 130 9.00
73 Our Island (IRE) 7 Tim Vaughan 130 9.00
74 Schindler's Gold (IRE) 10 Dr R D P Newland 130 9.00
75 Abbeybraney (IRE) 11 G T Bewley 129 8.13
76 King Fontaine (IRE) 9 J M Jefferson 127 8.11
77 Saddlers Storm (IRE) 10 A J Martin 126 8.10
78 Ballyvesey (IRE) 7 P Bowen 125 8.09
79 On His Own (IRE) 8 W P Mullins 125 8.09
80 Another Palm (IRE) 7 N Meade 123 8.07
81 Minella Theatre (IRE) 9 Mrs L Hill 123 8.07
82 Smoking Aces (IRE) 8 T J Taaffe 123 8.07
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Replies: 16
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I have done a similar guess but tried to use Mr Smiths method,
Synchronised 11st 10lbs Weird al 11ST 8LBS Midnight Chase 11st 7lbs Ballbriggs 11st 5lbs Burton Port 11st 5lbs much the same but On His Own is now rated at 148 and so would be 1lb below West End Rocker. If you don't believe me about On His Own consult the Haydock Grand National Trial handicap where the rating is up to date. |
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I believe you Bazzar and thanks
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I see the weights are due to be announced on Tuesday, but when's the cut off for framing them? For example, could Burton Port's weight still be affected by his race agianst Long Run on Saturday?
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I have been working on the race and this is my first short short list:
Chicago Grey Killyglen Niche Market Roulez Cool State of Play Sunnyhillboy Synchronised The Midnight Club Uncle Junior West End Rocker Looks likey will get in mostly. My next longer short list adds these: Arbor Supreme Ballabriggs Becauseicouldntsee Cooldine Mon Mome Neptune Equester Northern Alliance Organisedconfusion Planet of Sound Quiscover Fontaine Rare Bob Scotsirish Some Target |
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Come and join us on the Grand National thread
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My 'long' short list not in any particular order is as follows at the moment:
West End Rocker Shakalakaboomboom The Midnight Club Niche Market Killyglen Prince De Beauchene Planet Of Sound Always Right Organised Confusion Alfa Beat Cooldine On His Own I have backed all of these at varying smallish stakes and will narrow down further after the weights are published and reaction from Trainers. |
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Strontium, only if he were to win.
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@mully
where is the grand national thread you are talking about? |
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synchronised, weird al and midnight chase are going to have a major influence on the shape of the race
if those 3 don't run the the weights rise bringing many more above the magical 11st 2lb any thoughts or are the trainers keeping schtum? |
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On these ratings yes, but Ballabriggs is likley to get a few more pounds for the Aintree factor (maybe 5?) and he is a likley runner - so the inital weights may only go up 3-5 lbs.
McCain has already hinted weird Al is more likley to go for the Bowl. |
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The rating for BALLA went up 10 lbs after his NATIONAL win and since he has not run it will remain at that in my opinion.
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ta mate
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He will still carry top weight of 11st 10lbs and BURTON PORT will be joint with him.
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i am thinking about how many end up carrying more than 11 stone
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A funny thing, after the LEXUS Synchronised went up to 168, it has remained in it's stable and it's rating has dropped to 167, really strange.
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Judo - i think Uncle Junior is the only one who's vunlnerable to carrying more than 11 st. That trend has been rather weak in recent years though.
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