Horse Antepost
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03 Feb 12
15:26
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Date Joined:
04 Apr 06
I feel this beast is well overpriced for the Aintree spectacular.
He is not the biggest but in the main he is a very proficient jumper of a fence. The fact that he likes to race up with the pace is also a positive in my eyes.
Turn back the clock a few years and this horse finished a very respectable 4th in the Irish National. He then followed up that run by winning the Punchestown Champion Novice race nto.
He was obviously not very well treated for his 2nd Season Chasing and was pretty disappointing, the one ray of light was his placed effort in a decent handicap chase at the Aintree festival.
In the 2010-11 Season he again struggled for form in the early part of the year but as such he had dropped down the handicap. In January 2011 he absolutely bolted up in the Leopardstown Chase of top weight, a fantastic performance. A few more disappointing efforts followed but he arrived at Aintree again in the Spring to contest the very same listed Hcp Chase that he was 3rd in 12 Months previously.
He was in the process of running a very big race when challenging for the lead 2 from home, he hit the fence and unseated the rider. He looked most unlucky to me
He was subsequently a very respectable 3rd in the Guinnness Gold cup @ Punchestown.
This Season started with a pretty poor fto run in the JNwine.com Champion Chase, but tbh he was always going to struggle on his first run of the Season in that company and it seemed to be a race to blow away the cobwebs before a tilt at the Becher Chase.
At first glance his run in that race seemed rather lacklustre. Having watched the race again several times since I have become convinced that it was a decent effort.
He raced pretty prominently throughout that race and plugged on gamely when beaten to finish 5th. He was about the only horse that raced with the pace that completed, to my knowledge the rest were all pulled up. Off top weight on that ground I felt he did pretty well tbh. At aintree in April he should have a massive pull in the weights with West End Rocker.
He is clearly a horse that comes alive in the New Year, all his wins have been from January onward. He has shown a very good level of form at Aintree the last two years. He has jumped well round the course in the Becher. He is a horse the has slipped down the ratings and should get in under the 11 stone barrier. But best of all he is currently a 50/1 shot
I have him around a 25/1 shot tops. If he gets to the race fit and well I certainly think he will start no bigger than that, probably even shorter tbh.
Anyone else fancy him or if you don't maybe you could say why? I would be most interested to hear the views of the shrewdies on here
He is not the biggest but in the main he is a very proficient jumper of a fence. The fact that he likes to race up with the pace is also a positive in my eyes.
Turn back the clock a few years and this horse finished a very respectable 4th in the Irish National. He then followed up that run by winning the Punchestown Champion Novice race nto.
He was obviously not very well treated for his 2nd Season Chasing and was pretty disappointing, the one ray of light was his placed effort in a decent handicap chase at the Aintree festival.
In the 2010-11 Season he again struggled for form in the early part of the year but as such he had dropped down the handicap. In January 2011 he absolutely bolted up in the Leopardstown Chase of top weight, a fantastic performance. A few more disappointing efforts followed but he arrived at Aintree again in the Spring to contest the very same listed Hcp Chase that he was 3rd in 12 Months previously.
He was in the process of running a very big race when challenging for the lead 2 from home, he hit the fence and unseated the rider. He looked most unlucky to me
He was subsequently a very respectable 3rd in the Guinnness Gold cup @ Punchestown.
This Season started with a pretty poor fto run in the JNwine.com Champion Chase, but tbh he was always going to struggle on his first run of the Season in that company and it seemed to be a race to blow away the cobwebs before a tilt at the Becher Chase.
At first glance his run in that race seemed rather lacklustre. Having watched the race again several times since I have become convinced that it was a decent effort.
He raced pretty prominently throughout that race and plugged on gamely when beaten to finish 5th. He was about the only horse that raced with the pace that completed, to my knowledge the rest were all pulled up. Off top weight on that ground I felt he did pretty well tbh. At aintree in April he should have a massive pull in the weights with West End Rocker.
He is clearly a horse that comes alive in the New Year, all his wins have been from January onward. He has shown a very good level of form at Aintree the last two years. He has jumped well round the course in the Becher. He is a horse the has slipped down the ratings and should get in under the 11 stone barrier. But best of all he is currently a 50/1 shot
I have him around a 25/1 shot tops. If he gets to the race fit and well I certainly think he will start no bigger than that, probably even shorter tbh.
Anyone else fancy him or if you don't maybe you could say why? I would be most interested to hear the views of the shrewdies on here
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I am currently going through all the entries and working out how many of the "Mordin Factors" each horse matches (there are 13) - Rare Bob currently gets 10/13 which is not bad at this stage as he could still rise to 12/13 ticks in boxes (needs a run over hurdles and a win in a race over 3 mile 3 furlongs or more). He is the right age bracket (neither too old or too young) and he only has one major negative which is that he has had 22 chase starts and that is quite a few more than a typical winner. Certainly worth having on your side although there are probably plenty with similar profiles
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The run in a hurdles race stat is one I tend to disregard tbh. For horses toward the top of the handicap it is far better to just have a stroll around in a Graded chase and shave a few pounds of their OR.
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Just my view but I would far rather have a horse on my side that has placed in Grade 1's over 3m1f instead of one that has won a far weaker race over 2 fulongs more.
Anyway I thought Mordins stat was won over 3m3f or placed in a National?? Sorry if I'm wrong, just going on memory of something that I read a few years back. |
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it's just a method for separating runners which has a good record - and yes I would not worry if they hadn't had a hurdle - I will certainly be looking at all the runners that score 10/13 or more however, so missing one or two will not be key - it's those that miss more and have other factors like age, not winning at 3 miles etc that become easier to dismiss. Normally you get down to about 9 or 10 runners which meet 10 or more factors and Rare Bob will already be on the list.
After that, things like "never won in class 2 or higher" start to become valuable in separating the runners along with age (I will certainly dismiss the 7yos if any get on the shortlist and 13 years old+ for sure. Might also dispense with 12 yo but there was a relatively recent winner in Silver Birch?) Anyway, with 10/13 as I say Rare bob already on the shortlist |