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sintonian
30 Jan 12 08:47
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Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 28,177 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
Less than two weeks to go before this cracker so lets get the opinions rolling.

Zarkandar - 3/3 over hurdles including the Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle at last seasons festival. The form of that race has been franked many times, particularly by the runner-up and third home who are no rated in the 160's, so off a mark of 151, you'd have to say Zark looks well treated. However, that was last seasons form and there is no guarantee he has progressed similarly and he remains very short on experience. Top price 4/1.

Darlan - 3/3 over hurdles also and put up his best performance, visually last time out when beating Jump City easy. He is rated 143 now though and Jump City is not that great and been beat subsequently and you never know what Darlan had left under the bonnet. 8/1

Raya Star - An improving 6yo having won 2/3 this season including the valuable Ladbroke Handicap at Ascot lto. Form of that race is mixed and this horse started the season off 120 and is now 139. He is improving nicely and cant rule out another big run but will need to find some more. 10/1.

Soldatino - the Triumph Hurdle winner from 2010. Only had 3 runs last year where he ran respectably on each occasion. Trainer reports him to have improved mentally and physically. He did run in this race last season though, beaten 2 lengths by Recession Proof and races off the same mark of 148, so will need to have improved like trainer has said. Was 20/1 when the book first opened, not 12/1 top price.

Sire De Grugy - has some decent form in the book behind the likes of Bobs Worth and an 11 lengths beating of Empire Levant. That was last season though, and he was beaten 26 lengths on his comeback run last time out. You can forgive him that to an extent as the going was Heavy and it was almost certainly a prep run but he still only beat 2 horses home. Rated 141. Top price 14/1.

Olofi - Looks an improved horse this season and finished runner-up to Brampour in the Greatwood Hurdle and was raised 6lb for it. Missed the Ladbroke thereafter due to a dirty scope but returned to action at Newbury last time where he fell 2 flights from home still seemingly travelling strongly. Was entered to run in the Pierse Hurdle just passed at Leopardstown but connections said they wanted to give him another week or two and will be aimend for this. Rated 136 he still look progressive, provided there are no ill affects from his fall. Top price 14/1.

Lots of contenders you can fancy for various reasons and i've not mentioned them all by any means. If Zarkander is a Champion Hurdler contender he needs to be winning this but 4/1 is short enough,particularly when he was 8/1 two weeks ago. At the prices I have taken a chance on Olofi eachway. The fall last time out is not ideal but he does look progressive and off a mark of 136 will be receiving weight from most of these.
Pause Switch to Standard View Betfair Hurdle - Newbury Feb 11th.
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Report kiddo112 February 9, 2012 5:08 PM GMT
@roobuck

Wouldn't necessarily have to be his own horse that JP has a cut at. Remember the Swinton Hurdle last May, JP had Remember Me in it, sent off 3/1 fav (think it was around 5.5 on here). And NJH wins it with Eradicate who scooted home by 13l having been backed from 12/1 > 15/2. Remember Me trailed in last of 22.
Report roobuck February 9, 2012 5:19 PM GMT
Fair point kiddo

If it does get to -6 or worse, the frost will still get into the ground. Would need to get to about 4 on Sat to have a chance.
Report R Carver February 9, 2012 6:34 PM GMT
Do not fancy Zarkander but fancy Empire Levant and Sire De Grugy if its on.
Report judorick February 9, 2012 6:41 PM GMT
I don't see how you can express any opinion about Zarkandar other than to say either he is in line with the other Triumph Hurdle runners (Brampour, Grandouet and Unaccompanied) and is therefore absolutely chucked in off 151 and therefore must win

or he will not made the same progress as those horses and will find it hard to win on seasonal debut in such a tough race as any other horse would

Not even the trainer knows which is more likely because the horse does not work brilliantly at home. We will find out if the meeting goes ahead.
Report Facts February 9, 2012 6:45 PM GMT
roobuck

Agreed. Current 9/1 could be a very good price imo
Report R Carver February 9, 2012 6:59 PM GMT
Judo -

I don't see how you can express any opinion about Zarkandar other than to say either [1] he is in line with the other Triumph Hurdle runners (Brampour, Grandouet and Unaccompanied) and is therefore absolutely chucked in off 151 and therefore must win or [2] he will not made the same progress as those horses and will find it hard to win on seasonal debut in such a tough race as any other horse would

I think (if I understand you right) I am saying [2] when I say above that i 'do not fancy Z' -

I would be more than a little surprised if the horse was straight enought to win even off 151 on Saturday when his principle target is 5 weeks away against horses who have been trained to the minute for the race and quite possibly have lbs up there sleeves too.

I do take the view that Zarkander is entitled to improve for many reasons and I would be surprised if at the end of the yr his mark was not substantially higher (though I also take the view that he may not have been the best horse in the Triumph even though he won it (a view I think it is possible to hold)).

It could be that the horse is not straight but has (like those peers mentioned) improved dramatically meaning he wins anyway, I just do not anticipate this.
Report R Carver February 9, 2012 7:00 PM GMT
* their.
Report judorick February 9, 2012 7:03 PM GMT
yeah fair enough but both scenarios are possible (not equally of course) and whatever anyone says we won't know til it runs

your opinion that he will turn out to be less well in could well be true but frankly, and no offence meant, it is only a guess - even Paul Nicholls has been saying we will have to wait and see

you could be right by all means
Report R Carver February 9, 2012 7:17 PM GMT
Absolutely - such is punting for me! I just cannot imagine him being straight enough to win but he certainly could be or might not need to be. I assume if he wins he'll be cut for the champion because it would be very surprising if he did not come on for the run. In some ways it would set the Champion up nicely if he won because that race is looking quite one dimensional right now.

I can have a look, but does anyone know what recent winners of this race have won off? I imagine Rooster going so close was some way the highest very near miss / winner recently.
Report judorick February 9, 2012 7:21 PM GMT
i'll have a look mate
Report R Carver February 9, 2012 7:26 PM GMT
Cheers Judo!
Report judorick February 9, 2012 7:31 PM GMT
7 of the last 10 winners were rated between 131 and 144 so the higher weighted runners do seem to be at a disadvantage

and 6 of those carried less than 10 stone 9lbs

looks like horses with more than 6 appearances in handicaps have a terrible record with only one winner that I can find

5, 6 and 7 year olds dominate

not positive for Zarkandar
Report R Carver February 9, 2012 7:43 PM GMT
Geos won off 149 (10st 9) touching off Rooster 166. Copeland off 142, Rooster finishing 2nd 138, 2 yrs before!

Large Action touched off Oh So Risky who ran off 162.
Report R Carver February 9, 2012 7:44 PM GMT
Thanks Juo (sorry I was posting simultaneously).
Report R Carver February 9, 2012 7:46 PM GMT
The advantage (as said by many) is that Zark has so much scope for improvement. The disadvantage being (IMO) this being his seasonal debut (and in fairness it is tougher to win than an Adonis, against similarly inexperienced novices) and surely only a stepping stone.
Report judorick February 9, 2012 8:13 PM GMT
I backed Oh So Risky that day - classy animal

yes if Zarkandar is anywhere near good enough to compete in a Champion Hurdle he must win here imo off 151 - thats 15lb lower than Grandouet is now rated

put it this way if Grandouet was running here off 151 he would be odds on
Report bazzar February 9, 2012 8:16 PM GMT
GRANDOUET, would NOT be odds on if ZARKANDAR was to run off 151 as well.
Report judorick February 9, 2012 8:21 PM GMT
well no, I meant in his place obviously
Report R Carver February 9, 2012 8:28 PM GMT
True, but the lack of a run, weight and proximity to the Champion just puts me off. I am probably wrong and most of all I just hope it is on!
Report judorick February 9, 2012 8:46 PM GMT
yeah not claiming he should be considered along side grandouet for exactly those reasons
Report willie the milk February 9, 2012 8:47 PM GMT
My good mate and top form student Alpha Golf, told me he liked the look of the Colin Tizzard trained Third Intention. Beaten only 3 1/2L lto by Ranjaan giving it 21lbs and before that bt 8L behind Brampour in the Greatwood, now 20lbs better off. He was also a well fancied 11-1 shot when 7 of 23 bt just under 10L to Zakandar in the Triumph. 14s best. Cracking e-w bet
Report judorick February 9, 2012 8:54 PM GMT
yeah I like him too and backed him in the greatwood
Report roobuck February 9, 2012 8:59 PM GMT
Agree about hoping its on - the rest of the card is also great. I really should go as I'm not that far away.

The lack of a run is an issue, however I think Zarkandar's racing weight is fine and that actually the CH is a bit of a smokescreen. I believe he will be cherry ripe for this race and after all it is sponsored by one of PFN's paymasters. It is a very valuable pot and with his interrupted season, and the fact that HF proved his  very wellbeing, makes me think that this actually is not a stepping stone. He very well could be a CH horse, just not this year.

What puts me off a little is simply the price. Though I have some some money at 4s, with an e/w play on Via Galilei, I might just leave it at that. After all it's a 22 runner handicap and anything can happen.

Part of me wants to play on Darlan. But have backed him for the Supreme and as much as I put up a theory, I still find it hard to square its current price and the handicap mark he is to run off.

Probably just bette rto save the bank for Cheltenham
Report judorick February 9, 2012 9:02 PM GMT
yes i agree but i got on as soon as the ante post markets opened so am happy for the price to shorten
Report Can't Catch Me February 9, 2012 9:26 PM GMT
Agree about the smokescreen roobuck. PN knows in his heart of hearts he is going to struggle to beat HF. This is Zarkandar's big target imo.
Report thieveslikeus February 9, 2012 10:48 PM GMT
Willie the milk, I'm in the Third Intention camp too.  If Zarkandar is thrown in on triumph form then he must be too off 10st 6!  He has fitness on his side, is proven on the track and ground, and showed what may be improved form when 2nd last time, as you say conceding 21lbs to a leading contender for this year's Triumph.  I like Final Approach and Soldatino too but my main bet is on Third Intention.
Report R Carver February 10, 2012 7:47 AM GMT
Roobuck - the smokescreen idea never once occured to me. The plot thickens...
Report sintonian February 10, 2012 8:54 AM GMT
Will be OFF.
Report sintonian February 10, 2012 8:56 AM GMT
Newbury officials all week telling people they are optimisitc racing will go ahead yet when the snow arrives, forecast, they cant get racing on. Phucking clowns the lot of them.
Report roobuck February 10, 2012 9:08 AM GMT
Agreed.

What I don't get is that if the ground is raceable under the covers, can't the snow simply be swept off? Hard work granted, but surely possible?
Report sintonian February 10, 2012 9:14 AM GMT
24 acres to clear apparently. Though they knew that, too.
Report Can't Catch Me February 10, 2012 10:50 AM GMT
Cant they get a few lads out with hairdryers? Lazy buggers.
Report whipcrackaway February 10, 2012 10:54 AM GMT
Can someone please explain to a simpleton like me have i done my Ante post bet please......SadAngry
Report Masterminded February 10, 2012 11:08 AM GMT
Depends if it runs in the rescheduled race or not. If they don't run it again you will be refunded. I have a decent bet on Zark at 5's & I can see it already that he gets pulled out as the prize money is no doubt gna get cut.
Report shockster February 10, 2012 11:10 AM GMT
Whip - Probably will be a refund if they reopen the race. If Race is run next Friday at Newbury, depending on your bookies terms it may stand, but in all probability it will be a refund.
Report roobuck February 10, 2012 11:18 AM GMT
It will depend on who you have bet with tbh - my Betfair funds already returned.

If the race does not take place, you get your money back end of. If it gets rearranged for somewhere else you get your money back.

However if it is run at Newbury on Friday like last year, I can only say that the bets I had placed sttod at the prices struck as the horses ran. Not sure what would happen if horse then became a non-runner
Report kiddo112 February 10, 2012 11:28 AM GMT
Anyone know Hills policy?

Have Final Approach in an EW double with Boston's Angel for the Hennessy (both 14/1). Assume it's either:
- Bet stands if Final Approach takes part in reschedule
- Race reopened or Final Approach NR in reschedule > single on Boston's Angel

I would just be concerned that Mullins may look elsewhere rather than travel over especially if it is a smaller pot as suggested above.

TIA
Report thieveslikeus February 10, 2012 11:48 AM GMT
Betfair funds have only been returned on the day of race market, not ante-post...
Report thieveslikeus February 10, 2012 11:55 AM GMT
Hills policy, depends on when you struck the bet...

k. If a horse race is postponed to another day:

i. Ante post bets placed before the entries have closed will stand and will only be made void if:-

a. The race is abandoned or made void.

b. A horse is balloted out under Jockey Club Rules of Racing.

c. The venue is altered.

ii. Ante post bets placed after the entries have closed will be void, except when:-

a. The race is run at a later date at the same venue.

b. The entries are not re-opened.
Report sintonian February 10, 2012 12:53 PM GMT
So basically ante-post bets stand if the race is rescheduled for Newbury ?

You can always call your bookmaker and ask for a refund anyway. Sometimes they oblige.
Report kiddo112 February 10, 2012 3:37 PM GMT
Hmmm, not ideal. May see how Boston's Angel goes first.

Cheers lads
Report judorick February 10, 2012 6:22 PM GMT
some suggestions that zarkandar might miss the replacement race and go in the Kingweell


what say you Nicholls?
Report judorick February 10, 2012 6:24 PM GMT
already announced on here Zarkandar runs on friday!
Report sintonian February 10, 2012 8:57 PM GMT
NEWBURY'S lost Saturday card has been rescheduled for next Friday with Channel 4 televising the first three races and free entry for racegoers.

Negotiations involving the BHA, Levy Board, racecourse and Betfair concluded all races bar the 3m novice chase on the card, which was abandoned earlier in the day due to snow on the Newbury track, will be restaged at the course in seven days.

A BHA statement read: "Following the abandonment of racing at Newbury on Saturday, the British Horseracing Authority, in conjunction with the Levy Board, has granted Newbury a replacement fixture to be staged on February, Friday 17.

"The major races lost from Saturday's card will be rescheduled, including the previously rescheduled Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (Grade 1).

The original entries for the Betfair Hurdle will stand and trainers are required to make confirmations again on Saturday with entries for all other races made by noon the same day.

In his Betfair blog, trainer Paul Nicholls said: "As long as they are all fit and well, then all the horses I was going to runat Newbury tomorrow will turn out next Friday - and that includes Zarkandar.

"I would not be overly-concerned if a lot of my horses had to go straight to Cheltenham - I can get them fresh, fit and well at home - but it is a different story for horses that haven't yet run this season. So Zarkandar will run."

Coral spokesman David Stevens said: "All bets struck on the Betfair Hurdle from 10am Friday onwards (final declaration stage) willbe voided and any bets that were struck prior to that point will stand."

A revised running order and race conditions for Friday's Newbury fixture are outlined below:

12.15 The Betfair Super Saturday Steeple Chase (Grade 2) C4

12.45 The Betfair Denman Steeple Chase (Grade 2) C4

1.20 The Betfair Hurdle Race (Handicap) (Grade 3) C4

1.55 Betfair. Don't Settle For Less Novices' Hurdle Race (Class 4)

2.30 Betfair Supports Walking With The Wounded Handicap Hurdle Race (Class 2)

3.00 Betfair Novices' Steeple Chase (Registered as The Scilly Isles) (Grade 1)

3.35 Betfair Mobile For Best Prices Bumper (Listed Race)
Report roobuck February 10, 2012 9:06 PM GMT
I'm off work and free entry I believe, got to go if all the big players are running. I like Newbury, always got a good chance to get close to the horses in the parade ring.
Report R Carver February 10, 2012 9:19 PM GMT
Sorry if this has been covered above, but the idea that Darlan on known form is a 146 horse (think now revised to 143?) is laughable to me. The idea that he could be well treated off that mark is even more laughable. He could bolt up, but what piece of solid evidence makes this mark justifiable? Looks harshly treated to me.
Report Can't Catch Me February 10, 2012 9:46 PM GMT
Exactly how I see it to RC. Based purely on hype and connections.

Well done to Newbury for getting everything rescheduled but it must be a bot of a concern for any Cheltenham bound horse has a hard race. That extra 6 days could make a difference imo... 3 1/2 weeks is pretty close to be ideal prep.
Report R Carver February 10, 2012 9:58 PM GMT
I agree CCM - those few days extra could make a difference. I cannot see the big stick treatment coming out for festival bound horses!
Report judorick February 10, 2012 10:04 PM GMT
can always withdraw and go without a prep... then use chelters as an Aintree prep, been done many a time
Report Can't Catch Me February 10, 2012 10:08 PM GMT
Not if Cheltenham has been the priority all season Judo.
Report judorick February 10, 2012 10:10 PM GMT
well exactly!

so they can just get on and run next friday then can't they
Report roobuck February 10, 2012 10:38 PM GMT
I have to say I think that the 6 days closer to Cheltenham potentially hindering chances at festival as complete garbage.

If they are prep races they are exactly that and won't be given a hard ride and wouldn't if the race was tomorrow. If they are there to win they will approach the race in the same way.

By that reasoning no horse running from this weekend onwards has a chance at Cheltenham or at least its chances are comprimised. What about horses running on Sunday - that is one day closer to Cheltenham. And any horse running in the Adonis cannot win the Triumph as its too close to that race.

Sorry guys but imvho that is all complete b*****cks
Report R Carver February 10, 2012 10:54 PM GMT
Not sure tbh Roobuck, I recall Rooster being bottomed / having the edge took off him in the old Schwepps and (possibly the same yr) Baracouda running off 170 and having the edge taken off him at Sandown. It is I am sure not common that the prep spoils the horse, but it certainly has done.
Report R Carver February 10, 2012 10:55 PM GMT
I am not saying it is going to happen (and I am sure the trainers know more than me) but the closer we get the riskier it would become IMO.
Report judorick February 10, 2012 11:06 PM GMT
I think they did that with Kauto when they ran him at Ascot in between the KG and GC, don't think that was helpful

what year was that? Yes the year he got beat by Denman they ran him 16 Feb at Ascot beat Monets Garden 8 lengths because they thought they needed to get a run into him

I said at the time it was a mistake and I do think it affected him
Report strontium February 10, 2012 11:16 PM GMT
It's going to depend a lot on how the individual horse takes its racing and secondly on the type of race (i.e. a 3 1/2 m chase on heavy will potentially have more impact than a 2 m hurdle on good).
Report strontium February 10, 2012 11:18 PM GMT
Judo - re Kauto, was that also the year he had the infected hoof in Jan/Feb?
Report judorick February 10, 2012 11:27 PM GMT
i dont recall him having an infection but that would explain giving him a run if he had missed work
Report Masterminded February 10, 2012 11:31 PM GMT
Master Minded was the one with the infected hoof that year IIRC. I don't think you can say whether it's a good thing or not being close to the festival. It depends entirely on the horse and the race.
Report strontium February 10, 2012 11:32 PM GMT
With help from Google, it was that year, but immediately after the race at Ascot (i.e. a month before the Gold cup) - this gives the jist

http://sportsbetting.myfreeforum.org/viewtopic.php?t=9388&start=0


Feb 17 2008:
"Kauto Star has been ruled fit for the Cheltenham Gold Cup following an injury scare in the aftermath of his easy win in the final warm-up race at Ascot.

The defending Gold Cup champion was found to have a foot problem but vets drained puss and cleared up a small infection on Sunday morning.

Kauto Star will take on stablemate Denman in the 14 March Gold Cup.

Nicholls added: "It's basically pus in his foot. Once the vet and my head lad had released that he was virtually sound.

"We were quite confident last night as we took his shoe off and that instantly relieved him a bit, so we thought that was what the problem was."
Report sintonian February 11, 2012 4:32 PM GMT
I dont think their chances will be compromised either tbh. One or two hard races in quick succession can sometimes be Ok, provided it is a young horse. Look at Overturn. Only on his 3rd successive hard race in a row did his form dip in the Bula.
Report Hanbury February 11, 2012 8:49 PM GMT
Zarkander is a worthy favourite for the race, but surely Sire De Grugy has excellent claims at 14.5 on Betfair.

He looked a decent sort last year including a good win over Empire Levant, he was just caught out by the fast ground at Aintree when a goodish 3rd in a Grade 2 on his last start of the season.

The flat Newbury track will be right up his street (he missed Cheltenham last year due to the undulations), the ground will be more to his liking and most importantly the Moore's target this race, with Wingman and Heathcote their previous winners over the past 5 years.

I really do respect Zarkander's chances, this should really be his Champion Hurdle for this year, but at 3's and Paul Nicholl's saying this is just a prep for The Champion, I have serious doubts on whether 3's is value.

1pt Sire Ge Grugy at 14.5s and an exacta with Zarkander is my strategy
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 11, 2012 11:42 PM GMT
I wouldn't listen too much into what trainers are saying as regards to 'just a prep for chelters, wont be fully wound up' and hendo saying 'the mark darlan has is a joke, he shouldnt be anywhere near this i am angry' etc etc etc, ok they didnt say exactly that and darlans form may well be suspect as to regards the mark but answer me this, why is he still running him in this race? And why is he entered in the supreme? Having won his last races pretty much as he liked, we don't really know as yet what he is capable of and i see it as just mere trainer bantering with/through the press.

Of course Zarkander will be 100% fit and ready to do himself justice as well as Darlan, but i as a backer antepost of Zarkander, am very wary of Darlan and will back him on the day as a small saver! I just sometimes tend to read between the lines of these comments by trainers about 100k races, makes me laugh sometimes!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 11, 2012 11:44 PM GMT
If hendo really thought he had a limited chance in this race also, why is it McCoy is on him and not GMOOH of which in his very best form would not be without a squeak off 11st 1, of course we all no he is a dog though!
Report roobuck February 12, 2012 9:33 AM GMT
I agree Hanbury with much of your analysis, though I feel Sire de Grugy needs some rain to arrive this week to be seen at his best
Report strontium February 12, 2012 12:35 PM GMT
OT (sorry), but does anyone else think it's odd that they have rearranged the Scilly Isles Chase to be run at Newbury on a day there is racing at Sandown?
Report thieveslikeus February 12, 2012 1:09 PM GMT
Stront, now that you mention it, erm YES!
Report bazzar February 12, 2012 1:18 PM GMT
So the particular kind of lying politics is encroaching into racing, Strontium.
Report R Carver February 12, 2012 10:48 PM GMT
stsno1 - You could be right re darlan, the tip is in the entry and most trainers will moan about their mark, but I just find this mark unjustifiable based on known form - of course he could have a stone up his sleeve, but if he was my horse, I would wonder why he had been given that mark. Whatever the case, I do not fancy him.
Report Facts February 13, 2012 10:15 AM GMT
fwiw - I do.Happy
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 13, 2012 6:37 PM GMT
Darlan slight drift in the supreme market since i made the above post. Hmm, Confused
Report judorick February 13, 2012 11:05 PM GMT
I am laying my ante post bets on Zarkandar off and greening up equally all round, can't be asked to have the liability
Report Money On7 February 14, 2012 12:58 AM GMT
Ericht at 33s is too big imo, still unexposed and very highly thought of. was 5/1 fav for chelt bumper and his run behind steps to freedom and prospect wells for his 1st hurdle race is very good. fair enuff has ran last twice like something amiss and 135 is harsh enuff but he cud still run a big race
Report sintonian February 15, 2012 4:46 PM GMT
Nice to see Tom George/Paddy Brennan have a double today at Southwell. C'mon Olofi.
Report roobuck February 15, 2012 7:52 PM GMT
Am going to Newbury so will probably back another.

Have backed Olofi the last twice - do you not think he needs a bit of rain?
Report judorick February 15, 2012 8:00 PM GMT
needs a monsoon imo
Report sintonian February 15, 2012 10:31 PM GMT
Good to Soft in the Greatwood wasn't it ?
Report roobuck February 15, 2012 10:59 PM GMT
It was but I think it might end up quicker on Friday.

Not as pessimistic as judo, just think its chance would be enhanced by softer ground. Was actually asking a question, not having a pop at your pick if that is how it came across
Report sintonian February 16, 2012 8:32 AM GMT
Yeah I know. Laugh

He won his novice hurdle on Good and has plenty of form on GS including at the track last season behind Tocca Ferro.

We'll find out soon enough anyway and if he bombs out I have the right to say it was the ground afterwards! Silly
Report roobuck February 16, 2012 9:45 AM GMT
Sint of course you can.

The more I look at this race, the more I can make an argument for every horse and whilst pleased for you I will be gutted if Olofi wins as I know he is better than current mark and as said have backed it the last couple of runs.

The more the ground dries again it will be in Zarkandar's favour and have decided that I will also play Abergavenny e/ w on the day if no more rain
Report roobuck February 16, 2012 9:45 AM GMT
Sint of course you can.

The more I look at this race, the more I can make an argument for every horse and whilst pleased for you I will be gutted if Olofi wins as I know he is better than current mark and as said have backed it the last couple of runs.

The more the ground dries again it will be in Zarkandar's favour and have decided that I will also play Abergavenny e/ w on the day if no more rain
Report BJG February 16, 2012 11:18 AM GMT
1:15    

Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £86,849 20 runners 2m110y Good To Soft CH4

NO.     FORM     HORSE     AGE     WGT     TRAINER RTF%     JOCKEY     OR     TS     RPR
1     9-1130         Brampour 62     5     11-12     Paul Nicholls     Harry Derham7     162     157     163
2     111-         Zarkandar 316     5     11-1     Paul Nicholls     R Walsh     151     156     162
3     82P-52         Get Me Out Of Here 69 t     8     11-1     Jonjo O´Neill     Maurice Linehan7     151     158     166
4     1-6541         Final Approach 46     6     11-0     W P Mullins67     P Townend     150     146     164
5     1/650-         Soldatino 336     6     10-12     Nicky Henderson33     Barry Geraghty     148     156     169
6     1-111         Darlan 39     5     10-10     Nicky Henderson33     A P McCoy     146     132     154
7     42629         Via Galilei 62     7     10-8     Gary Moore67     Joshua Moore5     144     158     165
8     71227         Sailors Warn 62     5     10-7     E J O´Grady83     A E Lynch     143     131     164
9     1113-6         Sire De Grugy 28     6     10-7     Gary Moore67     Jamie Moore     143     149     162
10     5-1052         Desert Cry 27     6     10-7     Donald McCain43     Jason Maguire     143     158     164
11     71-672         Third Intention 29     5     10-6     Colin Tizzard     Joe Tizzard     142     161     173
12     12-412         Empire Levant 83     5     10-4     Paul Nicholls     Daryl Jacob     140     161     165
13     04-536         Alarazi 41     8     10-3     Lucy Wadham     Richard Johnson     139     155     163
14     4-2131         Raya Star 62     6     10-3     Alan King57     Robert Thornton     139     160     165
15     0-9015         Ciceron 27     6     10-0     Venetia Williams25     Aidan Coleman     136     164     164
16     38-42F         Olofi 48 tp     6     10-0     Tom George     Paddy Brennan     136     161     165
17     3U426         Rigidity 48 t     5     10-0     Tim Vaughan     Robert Kirk5     136     148     163
18     16-332         Ericht 35     6     10-0     Nicky Henderson33     Andrew Tinkler     135     140     158
19     111301         Abergavenny 5     5     10-0     Brian Ellison57     Felix De Giles     135     161     164
20     35132         Double Ross 27     6     10-0     Nigel Twiston-Davies     William Twiston-Davies7     130     141     162
Report sintonian February 16, 2012 1:06 PM GMT
Abregavvenny a big price in relation to Olofi. Trev snaffled 40/1 on Monday.

What is the official Going, then ? I agree, the quicker it is the more helpful it will be for the Fav.
Report Minger February 16, 2012 1:22 PM GMT
Good to soft ( soft in places) on the hurdle course  - suspect it will be good to soft all round by tomorrow - think the ground will be fine fine for the likes of Olofi and Sire de Grugy whilst not being an excuse for Zarkandar.
Report judorick February 16, 2012 1:28 PM GMT
the going is set to be lovely jumping ground and there will be no excuses, they have saved plenty of fresh going for the meeting and all reports are that it is perfect
Report sintonian February 16, 2012 5:26 PM GMT
Another winner for tom george/paddy today. 3 winners from the yard since the cold snap has shifted.

12/1, 5 places at 3.65 available fwiw on Olofi.
Report BJG February 16, 2012 5:52 PM GMT
Iain Turner @IainJTurner

Max McNeill (@McNeill_Family) has purchased the final 2/3 of Olofi and it will run in their name and their colours tomorrow
Report thieveslikeus February 17, 2012 12:21 AM GMT
Abergavenny price coming in now, it is entitled to improve past Olofi given that was his first handicap.  Grabbed some 33/1 e.w couple of days ago and topped up a little on here but wish I had more on now,  I still like Third Intention for this but think there is value in both of them.
Report unclepuncle February 17, 2012 10:58 AM GMT
Zarkandar will probably win and I'm kicking myself for not lumping on the 8/1 as I proposed on another thread on here when the weights and prices first came outCry.

At the prices Third Intention @ 14/1 is the one for me -  he is a bit of a soft finisher but the large field, the flat track and decent going should play to his strengths. I expect he may trade a lot lower in running so maybe I'll put up an in running lay at about 7/1 to cover my stake.
Report Facts February 17, 2012 2:02 PM GMT
wd winners. Think Darlan would have won though if jumped the last two safely.He was cruising when coming to grief.
Report R Carver February 17, 2012 2:10 PM GMT
Judo, this is our earlier exchange now reviewed in the light of today's developments..

Judo: I don't see how you can express any opinion about Zarkandar other than to say either [1] he is in line with the other Triumph Hurdle runners (Brampour, Grandouet and Unaccompanied) and is therefore absolutely chucked in off 151 and therefore must win or [2] he will not made the same progress as those horses and will find it hard to win on seasonal debut in such a tough race as any other horse would.

RC: I think (if I understand you right) I am saying [2] when I say above that i 'do not fancy Z' -

RC: I would be more than a little surprised if the horse was straight enought to win even off 151 on Saturday when his principle target is 5 weeks away against horses who have been trained to the minute for the race and quite possibly have lbs up there sleeves too - I suspect he was not as straight as he will be in 3 weeks but he was straight enough.

I do take the view that Zarkander is entitled to improve for many reasons and I would be surprised if at the end of the yr his mark was not substantially higher (though I also take the view that he may not have been the best horse in the Triumph even though he won it (a view I think it is possible to hold)) - No question that his mark will be higher at yr end.

It could be that the horse is not straight but has (like those peers mentioned) improved dramatically meaning he wins anyway - correct surely

I just do not anticipate this - wrong certainly!

Frustrating game!
Report sintonian February 17, 2012 2:41 PM GMT
Well done Zark backers. Not sure he is a Champion Hurdler myself but we'll see.

Olofi finished 6th. Slow pace was against many horses but not sure Paddy gave him the best of rides. After the first flight he got shuffled back and lost a few positions. He was then switched in the home straight. He would certainly not have won but possibly could have placed,imvho.
Report liqernpoker February 17, 2012 3:00 PM GMT
i believe olofi got 5th by a nose
Report sintonian February 17, 2012 3:16 PM GMT
Did he ? Ok thanks thought it was Sailors Warn.
Report judorick February 17, 2012 6:09 PM GMT
the slow gallop certainly did not help imo

had they gone a proper championship pace i really believe he would have won very impressively

shan't be on for the Champion tho
Report strontium February 17, 2012 6:38 PM GMT
Beating Get Me Out of Here by a length off level weight seems a long way short of the form needed to beat Hurricane Fly. Plus Ruby swaps sides that day.
Report strontium February 17, 2012 7:16 PM GMT
Corretion, Zark gave GMOOH 7 lbs - sorry!
Report liam the lips February 17, 2012 8:51 PM GMT
I think Darlan would have taken some stopping in this had he stood up, hope he's ok Plain
Report Facts February 17, 2012 9:27 PM GMT
^ agreed
Report strontium February 17, 2012 9:43 PM GMT
It looked a really horrible fall didn't it. I'm amazed AP got up after the kicking he took - must be made of iron.
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