Horse Antepost
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Hold On Julio is swiftly on an upward curve but got hit with another big rise last time out, 11lb, making it 27lb in total this season. He is lightly raced and trainer can do no wrong at the moment but he made several mistakes last time so in light of his new mark and price, top 5/1, is passed over.
Qianshan Leader - has won 4 handicap chases now from 11 starts, and is perhaps looking a little exposed. His last win was over course and distance but he was all out to win and is 8lb higher. Is receiving weight from most here but likely to be beat by something less exposed and more classy??
Shakalakaboomboom - has won 4 from 8 over fences, which is good strike rate, including his last two starts. Clearly improving and looks a live contender from top yard. Form of last win let down by Knockara Beau and beating Mon Parrain doesn't look that great either imo. Obvious chance 8/1.
1833 - 11th in the Hennessy, travelled well and jumped well enough, but flattered to deceive in the end. Has been dropped 2lb for that though and is lightly raced. Trainer good record in the race. Dangerous to dismiss, and did finish second to Somersby earlier this season, but needs to bounce back to form. 10/1.
Wayward Prince - ran worse than 1833 in the Henessy and was pulled-up. Trainer reported him to be sick though and he bounced backed to form in the Rowland Merrick with a 4th place finish, beaten 18 lengths, and dropped 4lb for it. Winner has gone on to win again, According To Pete, and the third is an 8/1 chance for the Argento Chase, Midnight Chase. Trainer in great form. 14/1.
Calgary Bay - up 6lb for winning last time, which seems fair. C&D winner at Donny and built to carry big weights. A chance but wont want the ground too soft.
Galaxy Rock - impressive winner at Cheltenham earlier season, where the form has worked out great beating Carruthers and Hey Big Spender. He was receiving loads of weight that day though and needs a career best. 12/1.
Cape Tribulation - a staying on 5th behind Calgary Bay last time over a trip probably too short. Has been dropped 1lb for that and should not have any worries if the ground gets soft. Only had 6 chase starts and has some good pieces of form in the book that will give him a chance. Trainer in good form, too, with According To Pete.
At the prices out of this lot I have backed Cape Tribulation eachway, 16/1.Denis O'regan has a good record on the horse but he may be at Cheltenham to ride Time For Rupert, who I have also backed
Wayward Prince and 1833 seem fair prices aswell but you cant back them all imo otherwise it becomes a facking lottery!.
Qianshan Leader - has won 4 handicap chases now from 11 starts, and is perhaps looking a little exposed. His last win was over course and distance but he was all out to win and is 8lb higher. Is receiving weight from most here but likely to be beat by something less exposed and more classy??
Shakalakaboomboom - has won 4 from 8 over fences, which is good strike rate, including his last two starts. Clearly improving and looks a live contender from top yard. Form of last win let down by Knockara Beau and beating Mon Parrain doesn't look that great either imo. Obvious chance 8/1.
1833 - 11th in the Hennessy, travelled well and jumped well enough, but flattered to deceive in the end. Has been dropped 2lb for that though and is lightly raced. Trainer good record in the race. Dangerous to dismiss, and did finish second to Somersby earlier this season, but needs to bounce back to form. 10/1.
Wayward Prince - ran worse than 1833 in the Henessy and was pulled-up. Trainer reported him to be sick though and he bounced backed to form in the Rowland Merrick with a 4th place finish, beaten 18 lengths, and dropped 4lb for it. Winner has gone on to win again, According To Pete, and the third is an 8/1 chance for the Argento Chase, Midnight Chase. Trainer in great form. 14/1.
Calgary Bay - up 6lb for winning last time, which seems fair. C&D winner at Donny and built to carry big weights. A chance but wont want the ground too soft.
Galaxy Rock - impressive winner at Cheltenham earlier season, where the form has worked out great beating Carruthers and Hey Big Spender. He was receiving loads of weight that day though and needs a career best. 12/1.
Cape Tribulation - a staying on 5th behind Calgary Bay last time over a trip probably too short. Has been dropped 1lb for that and should not have any worries if the ground gets soft. Only had 6 chase starts and has some good pieces of form in the book that will give him a chance. Trainer in good form, too, with According To Pete.
At the prices out of this lot I have backed Cape Tribulation eachway, 16/1.Denis O'regan has a good record on the horse but he may be at Cheltenham to ride Time For Rupert, who I have also backed
Wayward Prince and 1833 seem fair prices aswell but you cant back them all imo otherwise it becomes a facking lottery!.
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Replies: 49
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good analysis sint but you hav'nt mentioned the lurker
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who is that Boy Wonder .. what's your fancy ?
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I think the boy spelt LURCHER wrong.
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just bet shalimar fromentro at 16 could do with ground being soft at least but just ticks all the boxes for me
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what's your reasoning please BoyWonder ?
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Very nice write up.
I have to say I have never seen a horse get the railway fences wrong on BOTH circuits at Sandown and win a race so impressively at the business end. Of course he was bottom weight that day and perhaps that would not be the case off a higher weight. This horse is so lightly raced though, any amount of improvement is possible this year and next imo. I wont be taking the 4/1 on offer for Saturday but will be watching to see how he handles Doncaster which is a very different course to Sandown. Probably Wayward Prince E/W for me with Timmy already booked. GL |
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skybet chase winners are lightly raced types over fences in the last 9 runnings only simon 11th start and moor lane 10th had raced more than 6 times over fences williams took him to france twice in the summer for his prefeered heavy ground but he did run a cracker behind wymott on good/soft he was still travelling nicely when coming down at bechers in west end rockers race went off 2nd fav another plus he's won over 3m 1 a trend all bar heidi had done of the last nine victors and off 130 he must have great chance big fella thanks 136 highest rated winner in those 9 runnings it will be his 5th chase 16 value to me
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Shalimar Fromentro must have a chance on that Aintree form when falling, thought he looked the winner till coming down.
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Wayward Prince is on course to run in Saturday's Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster.
Trainer Ian Williams was glad to see the form of the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby receive a boost at Haydock over the weekend. The Alvechurch handler's inmate finished fourth to According To Pete on Boxing Day, and the winner defied a rise in the weights to land the Peter Marsh Chase on Merseyside. Wayward Prince was one of the star staying novices last term and was third in the RSA Chase, but ran no sort of a race on his reappearance in the Hennessy Gold Cup, a performance Williams still finds hard to explain. He is on course to run at Doncaster this weekend. "It was nice to see the form of his last run boosted. It looked a strong race at the time," said Williams. "We were very happy with Wayward Prince that day and we're looking forward to the weekend. "At least he ran a race at Wetherby, maybe not his proper race, but he ran a race compared to Newbury. "He was so poor in the Hennessy that it was nice to see him being competitive again and we've been very pleased with him since." |
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Great write up Sint
Have backed WP@14 & also like Calgary & Cape |
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Like Cape Tribulation but will not back as O`Regan is jocked up to ride this at Cheltenham.
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Yeah I noticed that as well El Pache. I think it might be because Oregan will be heading to Cheltenham anyway for Time For Rupert so the trainer decided to book him just in case Donny is called off.
But that is guess work on my part, though I did read some quotes on sporting life saying the Donny is the plan, Cheltenham back-up. |
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still think there is more to come from Hold on Julio. Nothing in the race looks as progressive as Alan King's charge. Thought he was a decent price at 5/1 last night. Will no doubt go off a fair bit shorter
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going for a 33-1 shot in NIKOLA, won at aintree and ran well at cheltenham to two out over an extended 3 an a quarter miles, not expecting much, but at least investment small and you never know...
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I like Nikola and Calgary Bay, as said above the latter won't want soft ground. The track yesterday was good, but it lagged it down over night and again this morning.
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Interesting selection TINnotaTON! think he is seriously overpriced. ran well at chelts last time, step back in trip could see him make the frame. As I'm sure you'd agree though he is up against it to win the race, but certainly rates a top e/w shout!
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Interesting selection TINnotaTON! think he is seriously overpriced. ran well at chelts last time, step back in trip could see him make the frame. As I'm sure you'd agree though he is up against it to win the race, but certainly rates a top e/w shout!
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no doubt IC, lots of if's and buts over some, just thought he was a bit of value back at 3 miles, be more than happy with the place though
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Think Brennan or Costello would ride, but it is disconcerting that O'regan has been booked for the Cheltenham race. Like I say, it is a guess, but think it may be a case of trainer taking first call on the jock in case Donnt got rained off or something. Facking hope so anyway!!
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Not sure as to the contractual position regarding O'Regan, but in simple terms would you prefer to ride a 16-1 chance in a 75 grand race or an 11-2 shot in a 100 grand race? Go figure.
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Cape Tribulation needs some rain doesnt it? - was pulled out of the Paddy Power earlier this season because ground was good so I'm far from convinced he'll be in line up unless the heavens open
Wayward Prince for me also at moment though I hope this track isnt a bit too sharp for it - a speculative bet as well on King Fontaine after his early demise last wekend but still looking well handicapped on 127 Shalimar Fromentro looks like he needs bog like conditions? |
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Denis is the new jock for TFR sint since poor Wills demise, they have an agreement.
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Yes that'right Liam. Fully expecting Denis to be at Chelts.
Rod, yes probably would like some rain but when he was pulled out before because of the ground it was over a shorter trip. Over 3 miles it wont be such a problem. There is some rain forecast over the next couple of days anyway, though Doncaster does drain very well. |
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Another Nikola fan here
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For me this just has to be GALAXY ROCK. Started a bit iffy at Cheltenham but AP got him into a groove and he just cruised and made at every fence on the second circuit. Nothing could stay with him. The ground I think was the key. Very good hurdles prep before this and more to come. Was highly touted for the Welsh national but the bottomless ground did for him. Wouldn't surprise me if AP was back for this one come Saturday as a big race target but even if it was the more than capable Richie or Costello if AP is at Cheltenham, which I suspect will be case as Jonjo has only one entry at Donny or so it seems. Young improving stayer, actually dropped a couple of lbs for this, if the ground drains right 14/1 will be an each way lump job. Personally I just hope he runs as I took 20/1 with Paddy Power on Sunday - bit of a punt but there you go. Calgary Bay the main danger with Shaka but I think Jonjo will have this one prepped to the minute for this race and then possibly onto the Midlands National at the end of the Cheltenham festival (at least that's what I'd do).
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By the way nice write up Sint
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town moor
Any going update please |
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Ante-post favourite Hold On Julio is among a field of 17 declared for the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster on Saturday.
Alan King's lightly-raced nine-year-old ensured he headed the market for the three-mile feature when enjoying a comfortable success at Sandown earlier this month. The David Pipe-trained I'msingingtheblues, just pipped by Tatenen at Ascot last Saturday, tops the weights. Nicky Henderson has a leading fancy in Shakalakaboomboom, who won in good style at Cheltenham last month. The Seven Barrows trainer also saddles Osric. Successful at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, course and distance winner Calgary Bay flies the flag for Henrietta Knight. Jonjo O'Neill's Galaxy Rock bids to bounce back after a disappointing effort on heavy ground in the Welsh National, while Paul Nicholls' Aiteen Thirtythree will try to redeem his reputation after a poor run in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November. Other Hennessy also-rans Wymott, trained by Donald McCain, and Ian Williams' Wayward Prince have also been handed the Doncaster mission. The Emma Lavelle-trained Qianshan Leader goes for the hat-trick after wins here and at Kempton, while Fruity O'Rooney was victorious at the latter track on his latest start. Cape Tribulation, Merigo, Shalimar Fromentro, Nikola, Riguez Dancer and Carrickmines complete the line-up. |
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@Clerkothecourse
Jon Pullin 2.5mm of overnight rain. Going now Good to Soft (Soft in Places) for Saturday. Dry forecast from now. 1 hour ago via web Favorite Retweet Reply |
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GALAXY ROCK for me.
Will not be double figures on saturday, and I wouldn't be surprised if he goes off favourite. The 11's needs to be taken. |
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Cheers Sint' for update
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HOLD ON JULIO (NR)
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I have become a big Nick Williams fan over the past year or so and have backed Shalimar now the "good thing" is out. Anyone similarly inclined should note that pricewise has landed on Williams horses for the past 2 Saturdays. The trainer has managed a decent level-stakes profit over the past 10 years for this particular owner
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Fair amount of rain fallen over last 2 hours or more (about 5 miles from track).
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cheers Jim. IF it does become Soft ground im not sure how many of them that will suit .. so far i've backed CapeTribulation who wont mind it, and Wayward Prince as a saver but i've always thought he is a better horse on decent going despite his 4th lto on Soft.
Shakalaka won on Good lto, Qianshan Leader has won 3 of his 4 h'cap chases on Good or better .. |
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A fair shout DD, especially if it turns soft. Was ruuning a good race lto until fell at Bechers.
Agree re CT as well a good e/w chance. Will wait until the morning now to find out the going before going in again one of those two |
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Just noticed that Donny have call an inspection for the morning - is it raining that hard?
According to the forecasts it doesn't appear that its going to be that cold for frost? |
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Sorry I haven't checked in for a couple of days, we had a death in the family.
As Jim says we've had a fair bit of rain in the last four hours or so, two heavy showers and light rain in between. Sky is brightening now. I had a walk down the home straight 20 minutes ago, the grass car park alongside the straight mile is quite muddy, so I was surprised the ground over on the NH track is only just on the soft side of good at the moment (wet grass so a little more will soak in). There are frost covers down on take off and landing sides of the obstacles, though this being donny our clerk has chosen to cover only two thirds of the width of some of the obstacles! I had put a second (1pt) bet on calgary bay this morning, took it down when the rain came and have just placed it again now I've seen the ground. Good luck all |