Horse Antepost
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There is no value built into the price when backing a horse on the day of a race as there is no challenge in getting there on the day and also winning, you know like the current lower value in NRNB Antepost books.
These NRNB markets have DAY OF RACE PRICES except you dont know how well your horse will be on the day or it's trials form when you take the DAY OF RACE PRICE so far in advance of the race as it wont be reported accurately or at all by connections until very near to the race which in turn might influence you to not back it. It is therefore a massive disadvantage taking NRNB antepost compared to taking your DAY OF RACE PRICE on the day when much more trials form/well-being information will be available to you. Your horse may get beat twice in the run up and drift then you will be left with a dire DAY OF RACE PRICE for it when if you had instead waited to back it on the day at the same DAY OF RACE PRICES and seen it lose a trial you may have not backed it at all or backed it at a much bigger price. If your horse runs between now and the race you are effectively taking a DAY OF RACE PRICE for what is actually a multiple bet as the trial could cause the price to drift dramatically or shorten if it wins. Your DAY OF RACE NRNB bet does not build in this risk, how do you feel about that bet now?
The bookies are hoping punters will take to these tightening of antepost margins, shooting themselves in the foot as the bookies will then have you by the short and curlies and will rip every shred of value from antepost with NRNB markets(er I mean DAY OF RACE PRICES markets).
These NRNB markets have DAY OF RACE PRICES except you dont know how well your horse will be on the day or it's trials form when you take the DAY OF RACE PRICE so far in advance of the race as it wont be reported accurately or at all by connections until very near to the race which in turn might influence you to not back it. It is therefore a massive disadvantage taking NRNB antepost compared to taking your DAY OF RACE PRICE on the day when much more trials form/well-being information will be available to you. Your horse may get beat twice in the run up and drift then you will be left with a dire DAY OF RACE PRICE for it when if you had instead waited to back it on the day at the same DAY OF RACE PRICES and seen it lose a trial you may have not backed it at all or backed it at a much bigger price. If your horse runs between now and the race you are effectively taking a DAY OF RACE PRICE for what is actually a multiple bet as the trial could cause the price to drift dramatically or shorten if it wins. Your DAY OF RACE NRNB bet does not build in this risk, how do you feel about that bet now?
The bookies are hoping punters will take to these tightening of antepost margins, shooting themselves in the foot as the bookies will then have you by the short and curlies and will rip every shred of value from antepost with NRNB markets(er I mean DAY OF RACE PRICES markets).
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I think we know what you mean now about
DAY OF RACE PRICE DAY OF RACE PRICE DAY OF RACE PRICE DAY OF RACE PRICE DAY OF RACE PRICE DAY OF RACE PRICE DAY OF RACE PRICE DAY OF RACE PRICES  |
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Shut up some do understand!!!!!!
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Hoping some of the antepost NRNB fans starting threads which highlight their utter stupidity on here will get a taste of their day of race value before long with a failed trial or two on the way to the Festival or an indication from connections near the race day that their horse isnt firing in their last gallop leaving them with a c rud DAY OF RACE PRICE which was placed WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE RACE and so requiring real antepost prices with value built in to account for these extra risks.... cant wait for them to start their whinging threads about how wrong they were about antepost NRNB bets.
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Not sure it's as straight forward as the OP suggests. There are plenty of instances where NRNB is a plus. e.g Hur Fly around 2/1 for ch NRnB ,if he wins the Irish ch he's likely to start the CH close to even money, if he run's poorly/moderately he may well not turn up meaning you'll get your money back.
Another example could be Zarkander in the same race if he wins the BF hurdle he could shorten up a lot but if he blows out he's unlikely to run and unlike normal AP punters the NRNB punter will get his money back. Its probably a market that cann't be generalised on , betting some horses it could be a significant positive whereas for others it could be a significant negative. |
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^ Agree totally ^
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Sometimes a shrewd looking antepost bet can end up disappointing also ?
Binocular, when he won the champion hurdle was always less than half his sp antepost. Cirrus des aigles, shrewdies were on at 7's, backed into less than 3's ap. I never thought i'd hear so many complain about backing winners......... |
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i done it last year in laddies with the commander thinking it will be a good bet when he turns up.
leading up to the gold cup vibes were bad for the commander and i was on at 4-1 then on the day the bookies took him on and offered 9-2. needless to say this really p1ssed me off so i wont make that same mistake this year. i think eric is right |
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Those who backed Bobs Worth for the AB hurdle at 10-1 NRNB with sj last year may see things differently to the OP.
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