What rating will the Grand National top weight have this year?

If this is the case, it will leave your fancy, plus my long range selection to carry 10-9, which I would be happy with.  Wonder if we fancy the same one?

The doubt with Synchronised has to be that if he runs well in the Gold Cup would they run him in the National, or try to keep him as a proper Grade 1 horse for the next couple of seasons. On the other hand, if he runs very well in the Gold Cup he'd be well in in the National.

The question was, what do we think the top weight will be, not what will CARRY top weight!!!!!!
Jonjo entered one about 4 years ago rated at 174 but it did not run and died later, forgotten it's name.

Bazaar, are you suggesting they'd declare Synchronised then not run him to screw the weights in the National? Would not be popular! The weights can be adjusted right up until final declarations if the top weight comes out, so the entries/initial weights are only important for setting the minimum a horse could carry.

Wouldn't it be extraordinary to win at Royal Ascot and win the National - PR man's dream, even a racing PR man.

That was the one MEAT LOAF.
I'm not suggesting anything, just giving my opinion that they waste their money if they enter him, especially as they know he will get top weight, but some of these owners have money to burn.
As you say the weights rise as each top weight is withdrawn, so not a lot of sense in trying to mess up the handicap, very small horses have won the National, THE LAMB won it twice, TEAM SPIRIT was a small horse but low down in the weights, SYNCHRONISED would have to carry about 22lbs more than TEAM SPIRIT, not impossible, but very unlikely.

11st 10 has been the top weight for many years. IMO, Weird Al (probably a 50-50 chance of running)- currently 164 - is most likely top weight, with Ballabriggs next in line. I would be very surprised if Synchronised runs although they may spend the £800 (or so) entry stake to see what weight he gets and who else is in.

Top weight was 11-12 until 2008, 11-10 since 2009.

I think McCain has already said Weird Al will be entered but will very probably run in the Bowl instead.

Planet of Sound must be near top weight?

If you go to Racing Post site and find statistics, a list of all the top rated horses are printed, Kauto Star 184, Synchronised 168.

I thought the handicapper didn't have to use use only offical ratings when making the weights for the National? I.e. he can adjust for things like "Aintree experience". He's also given an allowance to some highly rated horses in recent years - basically compressing the handicap - to try to improve the quality of the race.

There's some interesting stuff on this here http://www.grandnational.org.uk/entries.php

Neptune Collonges off around 159 could have a chance imo. He really needs a marathon trip these days & if Harry Derham were to take 7lb off then i could see him running a big race.

You are right about jockeys not being able to claim, could still see him running a big race though.

Butlers Cabin was a prime example of P Smiths "discretional" handicapping for the 2009 national.
The horse had ran off 147 in the 2008 GN where he was with the leaders and travelling well when he fell at Beechers 2nd time round.
Butlers ran in 4 races (2hurdles and 2 chases) prior to the 2009 GN and when he ran in the Kim Muir at Chelt in March he was rated 135 and finished 5th beaten 24l.
His next race was the 2009 GN and he was asked to run of a 12lb higher mark than Chelt, the same mark as in 2008. He did get round this time but after jumping Beechers up with the leaders he gradually dropped out of contention and finished 7th.
P Smith wrongly thought he was 12lb better horse at Aintree than anywhere else.
2009 was the first time in my life where I just gave up trying to fathom the race out, I definitely wouldn't have picked out Mon Mome at 100/1.