Horse Antepost
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Trends for 9 runnings of the Classic Chase since 2000:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-3
7yo: 1-6-12
8yo: 2-7-22
9yo: 2-3-30
10yo: 2-2-23
11yo: 1-1-14
12yo+: 1-1-15
No strong trend on ages.
Breeding
Irish bred: 7-10-68
French bred: 1-6-27
GB bred: 1-3-20
NZ bred: 0-1-2
USA bred: 0-0-2
Irish bred runners have won 7 of the last 9 runnings, though they have represented around 57.1% of the total runners.
French bred horses aged 8 or younger have a record of 1-6-17 whereas those aged 9 or older have a record of 0-0-10.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 5-8-58
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 4-12-61
In recent years horses carrying bigger weights have dominated with the 4 winners and 8 of the 12 placed finishers in past 4 renewals carrying 10-9 or more.
Top weight: 544FPB0P36 (0-2-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 141 or higher: 0-4-20
Horses rated 129 to 140: 8-10-57
Horses rated 128 or lower: 1-6-42
The last 8 winners have all been officially rated between 129 and 140.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 9 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start (exception was 12th in Hennessy)
8 of 9 winners (last 8) had run in past 50 days
9 of 9 winners had won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track
9 of 9 winners had won at least twice over fences
7 of 9 winners (last 6) had run in 10 or fewer handicap chases
6 of 9 winners (last 6) had won no more than 1 handicap chase
7 of 9 winners had contested a graded chase (1 exception had won a class 2 chase by a distance and other was runner-up in a grade 2 hurdle)
Other Races
Previous year's winner: 70 (0-0-2)
3 of 9 winners ran in previous year's Scottish National, finishing P02
3 of 9 winners ran in previous year's Grand National, finishing UU0
2 of 9 winners ran in Spinal Research H'cap Chase at Cheltenham, finishing 8P
2 of 9 winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 00
2 of 9 winners ran in Tim Molony Memorial H'cap Chase, finishing P2
Trainers
Alan King (2-2-6) has a fine record in this race, having won the last 2 renewals.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-9) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won it since 2000.
Venetia Williams (0-3-8) has gained 3 places from her last 8 runners while Charlie Longsdon (0-1-1) and Ian Williams (0-1-1) have each seen their one runner since 2000 make the frame.
Price
6 of 9 winners were priced between 10/1 and 25/1
No very strong trend on the prices.
Favourites (1-2-9) have won just one running since 2000, giving a level stakes loss of 3.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:
• Irish bred or French bred aged 8 or younger
• Carrying 10-9 or more
• Officially rated 129 to 140
• Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 50 days
• Won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track
• Previously won at least twice over fences
• Run in 10 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
• Contested a graded chase
• Previously run in the Aintree or Scottish Grand National
• Trained by Alan King
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-3
7yo: 1-6-12
8yo: 2-7-22
9yo: 2-3-30
10yo: 2-2-23
11yo: 1-1-14
12yo+: 1-1-15
No strong trend on ages.
Breeding
Irish bred: 7-10-68
French bred: 1-6-27
GB bred: 1-3-20
NZ bred: 0-1-2
USA bred: 0-0-2
Irish bred runners have won 7 of the last 9 runnings, though they have represented around 57.1% of the total runners.
French bred horses aged 8 or younger have a record of 1-6-17 whereas those aged 9 or older have a record of 0-0-10.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 5-8-58
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 4-12-61
In recent years horses carrying bigger weights have dominated with the 4 winners and 8 of the 12 placed finishers in past 4 renewals carrying 10-9 or more.
Top weight: 544FPB0P36 (0-2-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 141 or higher: 0-4-20
Horses rated 129 to 140: 8-10-57
Horses rated 128 or lower: 1-6-42
The last 8 winners have all been officially rated between 129 and 140.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 9 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start (exception was 12th in Hennessy)
8 of 9 winners (last 8) had run in past 50 days
9 of 9 winners had won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track
9 of 9 winners had won at least twice over fences
7 of 9 winners (last 6) had run in 10 or fewer handicap chases
6 of 9 winners (last 6) had won no more than 1 handicap chase
7 of 9 winners had contested a graded chase (1 exception had won a class 2 chase by a distance and other was runner-up in a grade 2 hurdle)
Other Races
Previous year's winner: 70 (0-0-2)
3 of 9 winners ran in previous year's Scottish National, finishing P02
3 of 9 winners ran in previous year's Grand National, finishing UU0
2 of 9 winners ran in Spinal Research H'cap Chase at Cheltenham, finishing 8P
2 of 9 winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 00
2 of 9 winners ran in Tim Molony Memorial H'cap Chase, finishing P2
Trainers
Alan King (2-2-6) has a fine record in this race, having won the last 2 renewals.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-9) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won it since 2000.
Venetia Williams (0-3-8) has gained 3 places from her last 8 runners while Charlie Longsdon (0-1-1) and Ian Williams (0-1-1) have each seen their one runner since 2000 make the frame.
Price
6 of 9 winners were priced between 10/1 and 25/1
No very strong trend on the prices.
Favourites (1-2-9) have won just one running since 2000, giving a level stakes loss of 3.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:
• Irish bred or French bred aged 8 or younger
• Carrying 10-9 or more
• Officially rated 129 to 140
• Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 50 days
• Won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track
• Previously won at least twice over fences
• Run in 10 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
• Contested a graded chase
• Previously run in the Aintree or Scottish Grand National
• Trained by Alan King
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Replies: 20
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cheers RC.
Not looked at this yet will do so Friday evening. |
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I have had a decent look at this rate and will put two possibles up at prices, believe it or not MIKO DE BEAUCHENE could very well win this or at the very least run well, it so low in the handicap as a result of its last few runs most of which he has not even finished the race and of course he is now 12 years old, however his mark is way way below its last winnig mark, the ground will be fine for him, the track and the trip will suit and off 10st he will feel like he is running loose and whatsmore dunne rides taking another 5lb off, the other big factor is the venetia williams stable is now back in top form, lets not forget ciceron winnig at the weekend when in previous poor form but on a good mark, same applies here, big price and worth a shot, he is my main horse but then FORTIFICATION should also go well as the form of his fontwell 3rd looks fantastic when finishing behind giles cross and rey nacarado as they went onto finish 2nd in the welsh national and also the latter hosed up at newbury.
good luck but keep an eye out for these |
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Faasel for me - usually runs well fresh. Looks a weak renewal.
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might be wrong but couldnt have faasel, not won first time out since 05, not won a handicap, not won over the trip, and ground may not suit, at 11 cant suddenly change all that surely, whereas miko has been there and done it before, trip, ground, and is thrown in on his last handicap win
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miko did me a good turn when he won welsh national but cant have him for this fortification could go well and 12's is a fair price but the two i like unfortunately head the market i have plumped for sona sasta though as his 2nd to le beau bai giving 2lb over 3m reads very well now slight doubt about trip but he showed up well for a long way in festival 4miler a level weights race and on his o r couldnt really expect to win i can see him being prominent something you need to be around warwick and going on to land another nice pot for the pipes
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Not confident as the horse has not shown much form this season, but taken a chance on Fredo. He meets only some of the trends, age, ran in the Scot Nat. But he does have some good form to his name like 2nd to Tell Masini and MasteroftheHall from last season. He won a class 2 handicap hurdle going left handed at Haydock on Soft, Ian Williams placed with his last runner in the race, and his last two runners have Won. 16/1.
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Not confident either but at a price I am going to take a chance on on borrowed wings.
It meets enough of the trends to warrant a go at 20/1. Unbelievably for a 9 yr old this will be only his 17th start in total. Of the prior 16 he has won 4 and been placed in 5. So a relatively good strike rate and considering the last 4 runs have not hit the frame, his time must be coming. Running off 131 and just in the handicap proper, he also has the useful 5lbs that Tom Canon can claim. Owned by Mr Wates and having only been trained by Arbuthnot for 2 runs so far with the last run over 22F where he seemed to be staying on. Whether he needs the extra 7F or not is the big question for me along with the form of the trainer. Arbuthnot has had 3 chase runners at Warwick, of which one has won but no winners in the last 14 days. However he can get them ready if they are good enough. On balance if he can hunt him around out the back and not panic about getting there too soon, I think he is nicely weighted and could strike at this first run over an extended distance. GL |
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Miko de Beauchenes last win as off 144 winning by 1L, however he then ran over 3m4f at haydock in heavy ground and was beaten 4L off a mark of 152, he runs in the race on saturday off 127 so its all there to be seen if venetiaa can get him to have one last hoorah, he also has a 5lb claimer on to compensate for being three out the handicap, been dropped another 8LB since his last run, has never run with 10st on his back, its a big if in terms of a return to form but hey he wouldnt need to get back to top form to win off this mark, just ok form would do, 50-50 i guess as to him winning or being pulled up but the chance is there for all to see, tom segal will probably stick it up next and it will plunge
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The problem is that win was 4 years ago next month and his runs in 2010 and 2011 have been dire, unbelievable that the h'capper had not dropped him quicker imo; his overall win rate of 4 from 37 isn't great either. 25/1 is only a fair price I would say. GL
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they have been worse than dire, this is to be seen but hey segal keep away from him please
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meatloaf has been on pipewatch
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i reckon seagull is gonna put faasel up
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I know that he is nearly as old as me, but having small e/w on Hello Bud.
Always like a horse that races prominently in these long distance races and will prefer this ground to that encountered in the race last year |
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Bench Warrant ran as well as many of the also rans last time out and is one of the few who may have a bit of improvement in him....I also agree Fortification looks a solid each way bet
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Hey Big Spender for me - built to carry the weight, proven on the track, ticks a lot of other boxes, still a potential improver, Gold Cup entry probably on the speculative side but his trainer is n't really one for calling his geese swans.
Was showing signs of creeping into contention in the Welsh National lto when he fell (yes, I backed him!)but in the context of this race even that might be a blessing in disguise because it saved him having too hard a race in one of the most gruelling events on the calendar. Admittedly horse is sentimental favourite of mine but just think he might be a lot better than most of these. |
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^ He certainly has a good record when conceding weight to inferior horses but am not sure he really wants to go this far.
I quite like the look of Blazing Bailey. King does pretty well with his staying chasers and this one is back to his last winning mark, which was scored from in another decent race. Ran OK first up in the Hennessy off a higher perch too to suggest the ability is still there, but this is a very trappy race for sure. |
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all you lot follw tipsters, after kealy and seagull all of a sudden everyone wants to be on bailey.
why did none of you want to back him before the tip came. fukcin idiots the lot of you sheep baaaaaaar |
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 hoff you nerd |
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Just seen the race I had backed Strongbows on here 11 but when I saw Hey Big Spender coming up I knew he would stay on just like he did at Carlisle last season. Well done Reaseheath nice winner there.
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wd rease
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