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Is now being trained by Sir James for the 2000 Guineas.
He is certainly not my idea of a 2000 Guineas winner, but he has won the Dewhurst (over 7 furlongs) and is simply bound to improve over further.
However the interesting thing about the decision to go for the 2000 Guineas is the value this will have as his Derby trial. He is so stoutly bred, he looks certain to prove best when tackling 12 furlongs.
A horse with plenty of scope to improve this season, he looks one to follow.
He is certainly not my idea of a 2000 Guineas winner, but he has won the Dewhurst (over 7 furlongs) and is simply bound to improve over further.
However the interesting thing about the decision to go for the 2000 Guineas is the value this will have as his Derby trial. He is so stoutly bred, he looks certain to prove best when tackling 12 furlongs.
A horse with plenty of scope to improve this season, he looks one to follow.
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Yes I remember a few people snapped up the 25/1 for Epsom last season after the Dewhurst. As a backer though you would hope JB does not give him more races than he needs before June, particularly on unsuitable ground.
Cant really have the dewhurst as a contest this year, it nearly always seems a muchness when there is a bunch finish like this and personally id write off all of them as classic contenders
I really want to see gaps when looking at 2yo form
I really want to see gaps when looking at 2yo form
Delegator turned out OK zil, from a similar Dewhurst (would have won the Guineas easily but for a superstar), and I think it's a bit early to write off the less exposed runners from the latest renewal, although Parish Hall and Power wouldn't fit into this bracket.
Agree Sankara. Delegator finished 5th in his Dewhurst and was then unlucky to run into a horse of a generation.
Usually if you have wide margin 2yo winners, like SNA,Camelot,Rainbow View etc they end up being favourite and short prices.
Usually if you have wide margin 2yo winners, like SNA,Camelot,Rainbow View etc they end up being favourite and short prices.
Its not necessarily large margin winners im on about though, lets take the last ten Dewhursts in a bit closer detail
Group 1
Parish Hall
Beethoven
Intense Focus
Milk it Mick
Tout Seul
In the 1st 4 instances the distances between the 1st five home were around 2l whilst the latter's race was 4l, some may have run below form but the winners and most of the field didnt shine at 3.
Group 2
Frankel
New Approach
Sir Percy
Sharmadral
Teofilo
In the 1st 2 in this bunch the 1st 5 were covered by around 7l, Sir Percy's race the 1st 4 home were covered by 5l, Sharm won by 2.5l whilst Teofilo and Holy Roman Emp were 2/1/4l ahead of the 3rd horse and both were retired
There are of course other instances where this rule is broken but as a general rule of thumb the old saying that they all cant be that good does tend to apply, the 2nd group of winners are far more talented than the 1st group???
Group 1
Parish Hall
Beethoven
Intense Focus
Milk it Mick
Tout Seul
In the 1st 4 instances the distances between the 1st five home were around 2l whilst the latter's race was 4l, some may have run below form but the winners and most of the field didnt shine at 3.
Group 2
Frankel
New Approach
Sir Percy
Sharmadral
Teofilo
In the 1st 2 in this bunch the 1st 5 were covered by around 7l, Sir Percy's race the 1st 4 home were covered by 5l, Sharm won by 2.5l whilst Teofilo and Holy Roman Emp were 2/1/4l ahead of the 3rd horse and both were retired
There are of course other instances where this rule is broken but as a general rule of thumb the old saying that they all cant be that good does tend to apply, the 2nd group of winners are far more talented than the 1st group???
I do agree with that old saying as well Zilzal but the analysis needs to go a bit further than that imo.
As you know I have backed Most Improved, on the basis I think there is plenty of improvement to come. He managed to place in a Group 1 straight out of Maiden company. This represents a significant step forwards. The two horses in front of him had run several times more and already had the experience of taking on top horses in Group races so for that reason I think MI is a spot of value at 40/1.
As you know I have backed Most Improved, on the basis I think there is plenty of improvement to come. He managed to place in a Group 1 straight out of Maiden company. This represents a significant step forwards. The two horses in front of him had run several times more and already had the experience of taking on top horses in Group races so for that reason I think MI is a spot of value at 40/1.
My own Derby and ****s long shot emerged at the end of last season when a certain brute called Takar absolutley hacked up from a decent enough looking field of maidens.
Takar is by Oratorio out a mare who was bred solidly for about 3 generations by 12 furlong+ blood.
If I was a betting man (which of corse I am) I would predict a few things about Takar:
he will be best at 10-12 furlongs
he will be top class
he will improve when he gets faster going.
The fact is he has just been backed at around 110 for Epsom on here, quite wrongly he is shorter for the 2000 ****s.
This is a decent enough price for once for a horse who looks potentially top class, is bred to stay and has a great trainer.
Takar is by Oratorio out a mare who was bred solidly for about 3 generations by 12 furlong+ blood.
If I was a betting man (which of corse I am) I would predict a few things about Takar:
he will be best at 10-12 furlongs
he will be top class
he will improve when he gets faster going.
The fact is he has just been backed at around 110 for Epsom on here, quite wrongly he is shorter for the 2000 ****s.
This is a decent enough price for once for a horse who looks potentially top class, is bred to stay and has a great trainer.
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