Horse Antepost
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29 Dec 11
23:12
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03 Feb 11
The gold cup looks set up for Long Run come march though of course it would be something else to see Kauto Star win it again, I for one dont think that he will e able to fend off the younger horse come festival time, with this in mind it appears that David Pipe is now considering letting Grands Cru take its chance, well i guess why not, he jumps so well, has a fine cruising speed and stamina from his hurdle days should ensure he can get home up the hill, however at the time of writing he is now 8-1 for the gold cup so whilst its a thin looking race has he got any fencing form to put him at 8-1, well theres nothing at present to suggest that.
Currently rated aroud 160 he would have to improve a tonne over fences to give Long Run something to think about in fact its got to be a 20lb improvement in two races, namely his prep run and then the gold cup, perhaps they may try the cotswold chase with him in January? surely this horse should be more like 16-1 for the gold cup even allowing for its poor depth of course if he could go and win the cotswold from a decent horse then we can look to drag that price in, the bookies have just got him far to short.
Nothing emphasises this than the current price of around 14-1 for Syncronised even after he carries out a demolition job on the lexus field the other day, that form has been crabbed by many and its questionable how good the Irish chasers are but lets not forget that the horse who finished second and third that day had ratings of 166 and 169 and Synchronised murdered them, for me after that run he has to be put on somewhere around 175 it could even be a couple of pounds either way.
Its been said in the past that this horse has to have heavy ground and yet it was good to soft at best at the Irish track so ground may not be the issue it once was, this form also seems to good to be a flash in the pan as does the style of the victory.
Lets not forget also that in his first run of the season in a hurdle at Haydock Synchronised ran a stormer trying to give weight to a certainty in Dynaste, even the runner up and fourth have gone onto run well next time out let laone dynaste second to big bucks.
So why is Synchronised 14-1 and Grands Cru 8-1, surely on all known form it would havve to be the other way around, Synchronised on that form is at present the only one that could go up against the top two in the market and whatsmore he is seemingly improving, has to be great value.
Currently rated aroud 160 he would have to improve a tonne over fences to give Long Run something to think about in fact its got to be a 20lb improvement in two races, namely his prep run and then the gold cup, perhaps they may try the cotswold chase with him in January? surely this horse should be more like 16-1 for the gold cup even allowing for its poor depth of course if he could go and win the cotswold from a decent horse then we can look to drag that price in, the bookies have just got him far to short.
Nothing emphasises this than the current price of around 14-1 for Syncronised even after he carries out a demolition job on the lexus field the other day, that form has been crabbed by many and its questionable how good the Irish chasers are but lets not forget that the horse who finished second and third that day had ratings of 166 and 169 and Synchronised murdered them, for me after that run he has to be put on somewhere around 175 it could even be a couple of pounds either way.
Its been said in the past that this horse has to have heavy ground and yet it was good to soft at best at the Irish track so ground may not be the issue it once was, this form also seems to good to be a flash in the pan as does the style of the victory.
Lets not forget also that in his first run of the season in a hurdle at Haydock Synchronised ran a stormer trying to give weight to a certainty in Dynaste, even the runner up and fourth have gone onto run well next time out let laone dynaste second to big bucks.
So why is Synchronised 14-1 and Grands Cru 8-1, surely on all known form it would havve to be the other way around, Synchronised on that form is at present the only one that could go up against the top two in the market and whatsmore he is seemingly improving, has to be great value.
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Dynaste has not finished second to Big Bucks.
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If it's proper soft ground then Synchronized could easily figure (similar type to Master Oats, Cool Ground, Sir Rembrant etc) - on normal goodish ground I can't have him at all.
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if its really soft/heavy ground for the gc then that would also suit grands crus who would have too much toe for synch. Bostons Angel and Quito de la roque would also be suited by serious give in the ground. Saying that it very rarely rides too soft in gc nowadays so the top 2 in market prob right ones
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is it ever soft or heavy on GC day?
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nope,but all it has to do is p!ss down before the Friday,and/or on the day itself.
This is england!! |
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Soft ground would also seem to really suit Long run looking at his form in France.
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topweight
30 Dec 11 09:54 Joined: 26 Jun 09 | Topic/replies: 468 | Blogger: topweight's blog if its really soft/heavy ground for the gc then that would also suit grands crus who would have too much toe for synch. I can't have Grands Crus staying 3m2.5f around Cheltenham on soft ground at all. The reason I wouldn't run him in the Gold Cup is that I just don't think he'll stay well enough to trouble the principals. If he needs a quick pace to jump well, then just run him in the Arkle where a quick pace is guaranteed, and which often goes to a horse which stays further. |
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Not sure the lexus form is much good and everything fell perfect for him. GC on good or G/s ground with KS
setting a decent pace would probably expose his dodgy jumping technique. If they potter round like they did in the lexus then his turn of foot would give him a chance ,but whats the chance of that in the GC. Grand Cru is an excellent jumper but to me could have stamina problems. |
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I am a massive Grands Crus fan but totally accept the stamina query is a major ponderable.
That said, if Synchronised beat him in any race and under any conditions (barring an absolute slog in glue) I would be bitterly disappointed. Think the Lexus looked one of the weakest Grade One three milers I have seen in a long, long time. |
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every year there is a push for the top novice to go for the gold cup - but on nearly every occassion they let the novice run against its fellow novices - who was the last novice to run/win the gold cup?
leave the gold cup to the big boys |
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Captain Christy was the last novice to win the Gold Cup
not sure who the last novice to run in it was? maybe Beef Or Salmon? |
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Tomdean, people were not saying that before the race. Only when Sync won did people start saying how shoite it was.
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Synchronised is on of my favourite horses. When he won the Welsh National he turned my fortunes around.
However, if he wins the Gold Cup I'll have to seriously consider giving up gambling. |
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sintonian - Maybe other people weren't saying so before the race but I certainly was.
Quito De La Roque has his fans but I'm not one of them - beat a legless Sizing Europe on his reappearance and just outdid Sarando as a novice. That is the measure of him in my opinion. Rubi Light is a nice horse but not sure he stayed and he has yet to convince he is Grade 1 standard, whereas the likes of Joncol have had their chances at a lower level time and time again. I totally stand by my comments and agree with flyingbolt. If Synchronised won the Gold Cup it would be one of the biggest shocks of my punting life. |
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Surely the Pipe's wont run Grand Crus after what happened to Gloria Victus.
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Mightymoyes it has been heavy a few times for the GOLD CUP, many times it has been soft, a stupid question really.
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Gloria Victus could have happened in the RSA!!
It jumped right at virtually every fence, would have been suited by softer and was still in there when falling two out |
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My humble opinion is that Synchronised beat NOTHING in the Lexus - indeed I think Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross would have given him a harder time had he pitched up at Chepstow and if either LBB or GC pitched up in the Gold Cup they would be 250/1 at least....
Grand Crus is still a novice - lets be honest.... The Gold Cup has ended many careers before they have begun in terms of what it can take out of a horse....and if GC were to go down the GC route so early in his Chasing career there is no doubt it might leave a negative indelible mark later on.... If I were Pipe I would look at the BIGGER picture......Long Run isn't improving and in 2013 the Gold Cup could be a far more realistic target for a better more experienced and improved Grand Crus.....there are better easier races at Cheltenham in 2012 for him.... |
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I agree with your humble opinion,and pretty much echo all that you say there mr willy!!
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Not many realistic contenders as far as I see. I can't have synchronised in the race but Grand Crus would probably have a good chance - I would be tempted if I owned the horse but would probably side with the RSA
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bazzar 01 Jan 12 01:45
Mightymoyes it has been heavy a few times for the GOLD CUP, many times it has been soft, a stupid question really. ---------------- when was the last time then? hasnt been soft once in the last 10 years. |
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Just out of interest everyone, it appears that the form of the lexus xhase is being discounted, it maybe right or wrong to do so, however in winning the race what rating would you all put synhcronised on, because as i mentioned in my original post the horse he thrashed had ratings of 166 and 169, one was seemingly improving and the other had only been beaten once over chases and had won two grade ones on the run at aintree and in ireland, are you all saying they did not run to form as the finishing distances between them may not suggest that and even if they ran 5LB below there previous level then the winner still has to be in the early to mid 170,s, BUT IF THEY DID RUN TO FORM THEN HE IS MID 170S PLUS. People have also said about his ground requirements but then it was barely good to soft in ireland for the lexus, its surely possible that the horse is reaching a new level.
If we are to discount this horse from the gold cup it seems it is because of the ground requirements he had in the past and also the form of the lexus, but it may be dangerous to dismiss this horse in a poor poor year especially when the only excuse for his victory in the lexus is that the opposition where poor, well then thats to be seen but outside of the top two in the betting for the gold cup who would have a rating right now as high as him |
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I'd rate him around 169 through noland and roberto goldback.
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Extra distance in GC could also see an improvement given he has won a national. I think it'll finish;
Long Run Synchronised Kauto I haven't always been convinced about Kauto over the extra distance in the Gold Cup even though he has won two of them. |
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strontium can i ask you why you rate him only through the horses who finished fourth and fifth and not the horses who where second and third, even allowing for that you seem to be rating him literally pound for pound which would not take into account the ease with which he won, however more interesting would be why you choose to totally discount the horses in second and third, just out of interest and in no way trying to be funny
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strontium can i ask you why you rate him only through the horses who finished fourth and fifth and not the horses who where second and third, even allowing for that you seem to be rating him literally pound for pound which would not take into account the ease with which he won, however more interesting would be why you choose to totally discount the horses in second and third, just out of interest and in no way trying to be funny
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by the way if i am rating the winner on that race alone, well he went into it at 155 as i say he beat 166 and 169 rated horses and i if handicapping would put him on 174
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The ratings angle is one I tend to steer clear of because more often than not I find it to be unhelpful and misrepresentative.
For what it's worth, I think the race was simply a bad one, and I wouldn't be comfortable putting any kind of figure on it. If pushed, I'd have Synchronised on something like 165. As I said initially, I am far from convinced Rubi Light really stayed, which is why I couldn't use him, and if Quito De La Roque is worth 169 I will be totally shocked. His Aintree form in beating Sarando, Golan Way and Wayward Prince would suggest he was no better than 156-159, and there has been no reliable evidence to suggest he has improved much, if at all since last season. Gut feeling is simply that the Lexus was a bad race and I would be surprised if anything comes out of it to give even the slightest bother to Kauto Star, Long Run or Grands Crus. Also think the likes of Captain Chris and Diamond Harry would be a lot classier than Synchronised, and suspect it would need huge improvement and very deep ground for him to be involved in the Gold Cup. |
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Noland and RG both appeared to give their running and had no excuses and both are good yardsticks with solid form against good Grade 1 or 2 horses in 2011.
I didn't give Synchronised any bonus as he appeared to be ridden out to the line, he won clearly and well, but not "easily" (say in the way Oscar Whisky beat Pounghach yesterday by 2 l but hard on the steel). I don't think Rubi Light stayed so can't rate the race through him. I thought QDLR was offically overrated before the race - and I'm certain he didn't run to 169. If he did, Synchronised ran to 180+! Who knows what the ratings of last years novices are actually but many of the ORs are too high. So you get Synchronised on around 167-9. |
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well each to their own i guess and views are what makes the world go round, however ratings are the cornerstone of horseracing as its the indication of form which is what we have to use to base our views on, otherwise it becomes a bit like pie in the sky, they are of course only used as a guide when studying form for future races and we all take our views on races and adjust accordingly, lets not forget though these are official handicappers who do it for a living and whilst we may agree or disagree they have to be respected surely.
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It will be interesting to see what the official handicapper does with Synch, Long Run, Kauto and Grands Crus when they revise this week.
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it will be as it may not be easy to rate them on the last races
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Love all this Synchronised is one pace mudlark business....keep it up.
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Really cannot see Synch keeping up with Long Run and Kauto on anything like decent ground.May stay on for a place,but he will be too far away to trouble the front 2 imo.
The Lexus to my eyes was pretty poor really if you are talking in Gold Cup terms,and i will be major surprised should that race have much to do with the Gold Cup as regards formlines,aside from a running on placer maybe,like Quito or Synch. |
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Budd - The Lexus was not great form no doubt but to put it in perspective for Synch to do what he did was next to impossible. Consensus beforehand and probably still now for some is Synch optimum trip is 3.5miles in knee deep sh1te. Basically the race had no pace so in effect turned into a 1.5 mile race and Synch beat Rubi Light 8 lengths in a 1.5 mile race on good ground giving him a few lengths start. Now given Rubi's optimum trip is 2.5 mile i think most will agree I'd think that performance is kind of amazing.
Anyway people read races different ways but I think people gonna have to wake up and realise that Synch is a lot more than a mudlard stayer and he's run well on good ground on many occasions now. Can't have him out of the frame in the GC and if he's within 5 lengths come the last not sure what can stop him. To me he should be 2nd fav behind Long Run and come the day even with the Kauto sentimentalists out there he won't be far short of 2nd fav. |
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Agree with your race analysis Guru , as you say an amazing performance . Plus he was outjumped by QDR at most fences . We tend to regard him as a knocked about plodder , but he has only had 8 chases which is a very light campaign for a 9-y-o .
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Whilst not really being a fan of Synchronised (his sloppy jumping & connections being the main reasons) he's undoubtedly in with a shout of the frame at least.
A career best was posted on ground perceived to be too fast for him, as well as his raw ability being in question - he most certainly surprised me. He looks at least as good right now as many Gold Cup WINNERS of the past (Cool Ground, Norton's Coin, Cool Dawn, The Thinker & Charter Party to name a handful) so it's not so foolish to put him on the premises, Long Run aside. I tend to agree with Strontium & Tom Deane's reservations of the rating on the Lexus, in erring on the side of caution - I'm getting a bit sick of some of the collateral marks given in haste, especially over the last few years. At the risk of much derision, I too have always harboured slight concerns about Kauto Star's stamina despite winning two Gold Cups, as GCW suggests, as he beat a very similar sort in Exotic Dancer who could never really get home, and a 90% (at best) Denman on the other occasion. Sometimes big races are won by 'default' and perish the thought the real Long Run fails to show, then I can see ANYTHING winning a sub-standard race. I have huge reservations about the Lexus form, and bigger ones about the entire field, apart from Long Run and for that reason, I couldn't totally discount Synchronised as some of you have. I do think that Long Run will absolutely hose up in this, even allowing for a few sloppy errors, as long as they don't stop his momentum too much. The one thing I'd be quietly confident about is that a bum rated two stone inferior (or more) to Long Run will surprise, by being suited to a strong gallop that'll catch out the perceived superior horses, and could well plod on for the frame. The question is...which one? The ones I'd be interested in are Chicago Grey, Wayward Prince & possibly China Rock too at HUGH-MONGOUS odds - there are some alternative markets nearer the race, like betting W/O Long Run or for the first five. I'm sure some of you will be in bulk at those suggestions, and I hope you're around come Cheltenham  |
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Anything is possible, but Long Run's form last year has been in my view devalued.
He has now won 2 top races, in the first he beat Riverside Theatre 12 lengths, by no means an outstanding effort, and in the second time he beat a well past it Denman by 7 lengths; both times Kauto Star was not at his best. This season Long Run has been thrashed once by a nearly 12 year old Kauto Star with Weird Al only 2 lengths away 3rd. Next he got beaten again and fair and square too, by a horse within 6 days of his 12th Birthday in a race miles slower than the one won by a novice having only his third chase ever. Long Run, in spite of the continued efforts of Yogi Breisner, continues to give the impression of being a clumsy brute, lacking real jumping talent. In the King George he looked quite slow too, as if the Eider Chase or Grand National would be more his cup of tea. He looks shocking value, and is at current odds a place lay as he would have every chance of unseating his undoubtedly enthusiastic if limited rider. |
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CoT - although I was roaring on Kauto Star, and I was chuffed to see him prevail, I got the distinct impression that the fences really did get in Long Run's way (as at Haydock too) and there was a lot of gas left in his tank.
Conversely, if there was one more fence and LR could have jumped it clean, I believe he'd have picked up KS with relative ease, as he looked tired - thoroughly understandable for an OAP. PS - I can't believe I've got away with the ridicule (so far) for those outsiders I've suggested  |