Horse Antepost
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19 Dec 11
23:49
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04 Feb 09
FWIW here's how I price the race at the moment:
Long Run 11/8
Kauto Star 7/2
Master Minded 8/1
Captain Chris 12/1
Diamond Harry 12/1
Somersby 20/1
PoS 25/1
Knackered Rat 150/1
Golan Way 200/1
This gives approx 100% book. I think we will see the current prices drifting more towards the above as the race approaches. Here's my thinking. For each horse I have noted it's approx ceiling RPR over it's fav distance, I have then adjusted this figure for the 3m of the King George. For the two market leaders no adjustment is needed but for several others it is. For example, I am theorising that Master Minded will run 5lbs below it's best due to the longer trip. The first fig is the ceiling RPR and the second fig is my adjusted RPR allowing for the 3m trip:
Long Run 182 182
Kauto Star 177 177
Master Minded 175 170
Captain Chris 172 168
Somersby 167 164
Diamond H 170 170
PoS 165 165
Knackered R 158 158
Golan Way 155 155
These are clearly subjective, eg Kauto is very hard to pin down and I have assumed that it will run a few pounds below it's Haydock run. Similarly trying to guess how the "optimum trip RPR" needs to be adjusted for the longer trip is a bit finger in the air. I don't think its reasonable to assume that any of the three stepping up in trip will improve for it. They might do but in my book the opposite is more likely and out of the the three I think that Somersby will be least inconvenienced by it and Master Minded the most.
I have then priced up the race using the adjusted RPR's and knocked the price of Diamond harry out a bit compared with Captain Chris and Master Minded as we are into the unknown on track bias with DH whereas it appears to suit the other two.
It's all pretty rough and ready but it does indicate a couple of things to me....
Master Minded, Captain Chris and Somersby are all too short in the betting. On current form, they have very little in hand over Diamond Harry and are unproven over 3m. DH has only had 5 chases in it's life and could easily have more to give. Planet of Sound's 50-1 price is plain daft compared to the others. It's pushing a stone better than the 66-1 Golan Way and pretty much the same horse as Somersby.
My advice at the moment would be in the without Long Run market, 123 1/4:
1. Kauto Star at 9/4 (may not be far short of that on the full market on the day !)
2. Diamond Harry at 9/1
3. PoS at 16/1
All each way.
Kauto is going to make this a real test of stamina and I want to be firmly with the three milers :)
Long Run 11/8
Kauto Star 7/2
Master Minded 8/1
Captain Chris 12/1
Diamond Harry 12/1
Somersby 20/1
PoS 25/1
Knackered Rat 150/1
Golan Way 200/1
This gives approx 100% book. I think we will see the current prices drifting more towards the above as the race approaches. Here's my thinking. For each horse I have noted it's approx ceiling RPR over it's fav distance, I have then adjusted this figure for the 3m of the King George. For the two market leaders no adjustment is needed but for several others it is. For example, I am theorising that Master Minded will run 5lbs below it's best due to the longer trip. The first fig is the ceiling RPR and the second fig is my adjusted RPR allowing for the 3m trip:
Long Run 182 182
Kauto Star 177 177
Master Minded 175 170
Captain Chris 172 168
Somersby 167 164
Diamond H 170 170
PoS 165 165
Knackered R 158 158
Golan Way 155 155
These are clearly subjective, eg Kauto is very hard to pin down and I have assumed that it will run a few pounds below it's Haydock run. Similarly trying to guess how the "optimum trip RPR" needs to be adjusted for the longer trip is a bit finger in the air. I don't think its reasonable to assume that any of the three stepping up in trip will improve for it. They might do but in my book the opposite is more likely and out of the the three I think that Somersby will be least inconvenienced by it and Master Minded the most.
I have then priced up the race using the adjusted RPR's and knocked the price of Diamond harry out a bit compared with Captain Chris and Master Minded as we are into the unknown on track bias with DH whereas it appears to suit the other two.
It's all pretty rough and ready but it does indicate a couple of things to me....
Master Minded, Captain Chris and Somersby are all too short in the betting. On current form, they have very little in hand over Diamond Harry and are unproven over 3m. DH has only had 5 chases in it's life and could easily have more to give. Planet of Sound's 50-1 price is plain daft compared to the others. It's pushing a stone better than the 66-1 Golan Way and pretty much the same horse as Somersby.
My advice at the moment would be in the without Long Run market, 123 1/4:
1. Kauto Star at 9/4 (may not be far short of that on the full market on the day !)
2. Diamond Harry at 9/1
3. PoS at 16/1
All each way.
Kauto is going to make this a real test of stamina and I want to be firmly with the three milers :)
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im on master minded... have been for a while. id be optomistic about him staying 3 miles. the trip is the only question 4 me! your take is interesting and clearly well thought out... gl
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Very interesting thread MPR.
My one query would be that if you think Somersby would not really be inconvenienced by the step up in trip then should he not be a his ceiling RPR or even higher? It's all a game of opinions of course but I think both he and Captain Chris will get the trip properly and I expect them to at least run to their best. As for Master Minded, I'm inclined to agree. I don't see him as a stayer and never have. As for Diamond Harry, he is certainly looking like value given his unexposed nature and the possession of a high RPR at 3m. The ongoing niggle with him is that he now goes right-handed (Hugh-Mongous will be mad by this as a potential concern) and might well be best fresh. Those combined factors make him the price he is at the moment (jn my mind anyway) although I think he will come in a bit on the day. This year's race is probably the most interesting for a long time as there are lots of question marks. I am as big a Kauto Star fan as there is but my gut feeling is that he will probably underperform after his gruelling comeback when trained to the minute. Long Run is pure class but his jumping is very hit and miss, so I could never back him at a short price. Somersby is the one that I can't quite shake from my mind as I'm sure he's been wanting to go this far for eons, but he is such an incredible excuse merchant that he's hard to back in such a good race full of professionals and top-class winners. All to play for! |
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Tom, I think Somersby will be least inconvenienced out of the three going up in trip BUT I still think it will underperform over three miles compared with shorter distances. You can't reduce a race to a set of numbers but they can sometimes open your eyes to a few things. One such point is that for all the trainer's talk of it being more open that it looks etc, Golan Way is most definitely not a lively 66-1 chance - it's more like 200-1 !
If there was no guaranteed pace in the race I could see the up in trip horses in a more positive light, but I would change the mantra from "If you're going to get 3 miles anywhere, it's a Kempton" to "If your stamina for the trip is going to be severely tested anywhere, it's in this year's KG" ! This is the race where 2m and 2.4m horses are often given the chance to get a longer trip and it's littered with failures, and not just the often quoted ones. Last year Forpadytheplasterer and The Nightingale both failed to see out the trip. I think that if Long Run puts in a decent round of jumping it wins, and if Diamond Harry is ridden with plenty of restraint then it can come through to challenge Kauto for 2nd. |
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i think kauto will go off a bigger price than 7/2 fan club or no fan club....he'd be a lay for me at that price purely judged on the fact that he was hard fit for his big day at haydock and he wouldn't be able to put in that kind of performance for a second time at this stage of the season.
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PoS only 50/50 according to Hobbs in today's Post.
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I backed Somersby after his seasonal win at the track at 20/1 on the belief a step up to 3 miles could be what he wants. His latest effort in the Peterborough,however,left me feeling cold. Tongue lolling out, not finding much off the bridle etc.
Captain Chris I would have been quite keen to back win only had he not missed his last two races through a poor scope. I am certain he wants a trip. But there are enough doubts for me to leave him and unoriginally I think LR should be the winner. |
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Like some others I think if Long Run's jumps like he did in last years renewal he will win. Also think it's unlikely Kauto will be able to produce his Haydock Heroics, how much that race has taken out of him will depend on where he finishes.
I backed MM a while ago at 10/1 e/w and while I'm not 100% he'll stay, I think this has been his target and if he gets in a rhythm I think he'll be there or thereabouts if he does stay - I certainly have him in front of Somersby - this horse has never convinced me he's any better when stepping up in trip - I just don't think he's good enough. Diamond Harry & Capt Chris are difficult to weigh up. Diamond Harry usually runs his best race first time up and Capt Chris has clearly had an interrupted prep, but if I had to pick another to get amongst them he would be the one |