Horse Antepost
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Has the weights rise ruined his chances?
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Probably ensured he will get into the race tbh. His pre Becher rating was almost certainly was too low to get him into this years race anyway.
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I really should read before I post
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Course form always crucified by the handicapper. Black Apalachi went up 15lbs for a similar win off 138. WER will be lucky to get below 150 now in the big one imo
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5lb rise..would have a chance
10lb rise..don't think he could win 15lb rise..forget it. |
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I think his mark is OK tbh. Remember, he was dropped 3lb prior to his win lto so that has come in very handy. The horse has a great profile for the race imo.
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I see he's up 12lb so not for me, but h'capper said it's not set in stone and he will revisit the race as the horses run again and further evidence becomes available.
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Rod is probably right. He won by over 20 lengths so a hefty rise is inevitable.
Hopefully the handicapper will take into account the heavy ground that day. There are always exaggerated winning distances when running on that kind of surface and tbh the race fell in his lap that day. Almost all runners were either non stayers or hated the ground, and tbh he has never looked a 150+ rated horse on any of his previous runs. I personally would have him up to around OR 146-147, I think he would have a decent chance to go close in the National of that kind of mark tbh. |
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12 lb.
So his OR is up to 149? I could easily see him making the frame of that mark, not sure if it's a bit too much to win off though. What I do know is that the current 20/1 available looks very fair indeed. If he gets there in one piece he surely starts far shorter. |
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agreed
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