* The SJ International Hurdle * (~ The BULA ~)

Only has a stone of improve to find to win a Champion and half of that would come by getting Molloy off his back imo.  Maybe Sherwood can do the rest?

Sanctuaire looks a big price to me - I did n't think his run in the Greatwood was that bad.

menorah is a silly price if he turns up!

4/1?

seems very very big to me!

he's had a setback which is reflected in the price though....plus the fact that up until recently he was just looking for an egg and spoon novice chase to get him going again a week before christmas....so saturday is completely out of the blue and not what he has been trained for.

i dont think theyd bother if he wasnt ready tho! theyre doing it for the money!

I thought Menorah was a world beater until the Champion Hurdle last year.

He showed great versatility - fantastic turn of foot between the last two in the Bula and real battling qualities carrying top weight in the Greatwood.

Form of Bula did fall apart a bit but in the back of my mind still find it hard to accept that his Champion Hurdle performance was as good as he is over hurdles - striking big black horse - would love him to be a superstar.

Reluctant to back him now though - might have a small reverse exacta featuring him and Sanctuaire.

i do agree the form may have appeared stronger than it actually was but CC is still a decent horse and nichols horse was more of a stayer i thought!! menorah also beat them in a canter and was unbeaten at chelt until the ch.

i think 4/1 against thses is too big tho!! id fancy him ahead of brampour and pittoni anyway!!

grandouet is obviously a nice horse but hes been beaten twicw at chelt now and i think a flatte track favours him, could be wrong obviously!!!

i think menorah will win this and win it well!!

i expect menorah to go off fav for this race and wouldnt be surprised if he was pw.

Just looked backed through Grandouet's Cheltenham form and it is pretty decent tbf. He may be better on flatter tracks, he looked top class last time out, but his Cheltenham runs consist of a 2nd in a Triumph Hurdle trial when beaten by Sam Winner conceding him 8lb, and a 3rd in the Triumph Hurdle itself behind Zarkandar (currently 10/1 for the Champion) and Unaccompanied who hacked up on debut this season and will be contesting G1's in Ireland this winter.

Donald McCain has thrown a spanner in the works here by entering Overrturn as he did say that horse would be given the winter off, so, given Grandouet is a top priced 3/1 I shall just wait until Saturday. But I expect he will be shorter by then.

Grandouet was very impressive last time, sint, eh?  Will be some horse over fences too, I'd have thought, and could take out a big Hurdle along the way.  Worthy fav on Saturday.

impressive yes, but he beat marsh warbler.

may be so but he aint a bad sort imo. MW won three novice hurldes last season, including a Grade 1 at Chepstow, and he came into the race last time off the back of a win on the all-weather. Domtaline was also fit having won previously, so atleast Grandouet beat horses that were in form, even if they wont be top class. Grandouet can only beat whats in front of him imo and he gave them two a dry b-umming imo.

If Menorah can produce his best then he is the one to beat ..

dry b-umming imo

Alot will depend on what pace is in the race imo, if they go a crawl then Grandouet is a big player. If they go a proper gallop then Brampour has a serious chance, both of his wins this season have been of a strong pace & both in good times too.

Dutch Grandouet and Brampour, sit back and wait to see which one wins

menorah will rout them all!

Sorry but there is no way Menorah is gonna give weight and a beating to both Grandouet and Brampour. His best effort over hurdles was winning the Greatwood narrowly off 151 for which he got RPR 165. I don't think he will run anywhere near that level and he is very vulnerable

ok rick!!

gl old boy!

i think at the prices i'd go for clerks choice , he ran far better than i thought he would in the champion just behind menorah and at 4 times his price he's being largely over looked i think.

anyways looks like a great days racing

that Jenny Mould Memorial Hcp Chase looks an awesome betting heat, right up my street. Hope they all turn up

Do anyone have any stats re the record of 4yo's in this race. There have been some notable scalps at that age group .. Cue Card last year, Katchit a few years back.

Clerks Choice ran in this last year as a 4yo but he is a year older so now so could be a stronger horse ??

Detroit City was a 4 y/o when he won it 5 or 6 years ago.

that wasnt he most competitive of renewals though. Celtic Ryde did manage to win it as a 4yo during the 'golden age'

Yep, Detroit was sent off 4/6 in a practically a two horse race with Hardy Eustace.

I just wonder if the 4yo's Grandouet & Brampour could have a fight on their hands with the likes of Menorah & Overrturn.

i think menorah should be about 7/4 so ive backed accordingly! ill be surprised if hes not fav and gives the field a good pasting tbh!

I just don't see wht Menorah should be able to give weight away here and make him one of the least likely to win. Funny innit how different opinions are reached

it's a step up for grandouet and brampour isn't it....grandouet was impressive last time but it wasn't a strong race and at the start of this season the trainer thought it would be handicapping for him....brampour has looked good in a couple of handicaps but this race will give a good pointer to whether these two can overcome the difficult second season hurdling as 4 year olds against the big boys.

I just rate his wins as very good form. I mean beating Bothy in the Greatwood off 151 is about his best performance (awarded his highest lifetime RPR for that of 165). He has to give weight to Grandouet who could be very smart and he is not certain to be able to beat Overturn either. I also pay attention to Topspeed ratings and he is well behind on those too. Could not back him myself

*don't

Menorah used his speed to beat horses that need a strong pace in a slowly run bula and was thoroughly put in his place in the champion, and then in ireland. i wouldn't want to back him to beat two potential improvers in what's likely to be a strongly run race, given he looks exposed at the very top. i've backed grandouet for the CH and i think he's a nice price each-way price in this field at 3/1, and have backed accordingly.

Wicket, there appears to be some opposition to Grandoute at the moment, so that is what I plan on doing on Saturday, hopefully at 7/2 or so.

The fact he is a 4yo is a concern for me, but he comes into the race in tip-top form and there are one or two others you would have question marks about in that regard.imo

Is there any danger than Grandouet won't run?

I was expecting Grandouet to run in Christmas Hurdle, so it would be no surprise to me if he swerved the weekend.

yeah, keeping the powder dry til the runners are known

nobody else give Sanctuaire a squeak with Ruby on board and Nicholls outlining how he can win?

Isn't Bino going for Xmas hurdle? Can't see them taking each other on, plus Zarkandar.

course yeah... Grandouet won't be going against Bino

If there was a chance Grandouet wasnt running I would have thought they would have left Oscar Whiskey in. OW will be going back over 2 miles in Ffos Las in new year and better prize than the Relkeel.

If the ground remains quick and it is the intention to run, Clerk's Choice is not out of it and 14s is fair for small e/w

What do we think the chances are of Overturn turning up for this? Thought it would be nrnb now as we're within 2 days of the race

Overturn- has to be respected in a race he will be allowed to dictate on fastish ground. Stayed on dourly last
      against the wind and not sure how good that form is.
Menorah- impressive early on last year when there was some cut found wanting in better races on faster ground
       though maynot have been in the same form. Not for me
brampour - very tough little horse who will have ideal conditions.Probably out classed.
Grandouet - very quick hurdler who can use up too much energy by pulling too hard. Interesting Mccoy seemed
       to settle him well last time after he ran fresh for Geraghty at wincanton.
There is a distinct possiblity that Grandouet has matured both physically and mentally since last year and
that under the likely fastish conditions could out class the oppostion. If he settles early behind Overturn
and isn't delivered too early he'll probably have way too much pace. On the negative side he was found wanting up the hill last year (though he chased too fast a pace). There is also an est 10 % chance that he could fall as well. Taking all things into account imo the true price of Grandoeut is between evens - 6/4 and given that
hes 3/1 I've got little option except to put my money were my mouth is and back him heavily.

yup I agree, looks a standout bet Tinker

Brampour for me,winners of his Cheltenham win have very good record of following up in this?

Lol Tinkler. Fairplay.

He was my fancy for the race also and may join in tomorrow.

menorah for me

no way is grandouet an evens/624 chance. i think if he was 1111, which he probably would be but for a bit of bad luck, he'd be 15/8. i like him and have backed him each way as well as my bets on the Champion, so really hoping he wins with authority, which he'll need to to pose any sort of challenge to HF.

menorah, the race may not have been the plan originally, but he should still be fav on his record at cheltenham alone

cant agree with that last statement

winning a handicap off 151 then beating Cue Card in this race does not entitle him to be favourite giving weight to the likes of Grandouet and facing Overturn and Brampour who have been winning races

Menorah is a place lay in running for me

Brampour is the obvious one for me at 11/2+. The record of Greatwood winners in this is, well, great:
2010 - Menorah
2009 - Kyber Kim
2006 - Detroit City
2003 - Rigmarole
2002 - Rooster Booster

Cracking difference of opinion about this race - think it's a classic no bet race to be honest.

Think Overturn should be favourite on this season's form, but is this an afterthought and he is he cooked after such a busy time? Menorah is a massive player. Maybe beating Cue Card is not enough to make him favourite but he has an exceptional record here and don't forget the speed he showed to win last year. That would have been sufficient to beat much better horses than Cue Card. Then Grandouet is a monster on flatter tracks and could just be a stronger, better horse this year, but at 5-2ish he's short enough having not yet proved his ability to see a race out at this level at Cheltenham. Brampour is a rapid improver but needs to step up again, although that is entirely possible. Even the likes of Clerk's Choice and Pittoni are not out of the equation getting weight from the others. The former will love the ground and should improve again this year, and the latter was 7l behind Thousand Stars, who would probably deserve to be favourite to mop this up if he was here.

It's a sodding minefield! Good luck to the bold souls getting involved.

I don't think it is a minefield at all! haha talk about difference of opinion

clerks choice is worth a punt at these prices....what looked to be a ridiculously high rating early last season, he ran well in the champion itself just behind menorah....he'll travel well and is a sporting e/w chance.

FWIW....in such a tricky event, Oliver Sherwood said today that he had to take CLERKS CHOICE up to Nicky Hendersons to give him a serious gallop cause he had nothing at home that could stay with it,little EW interest for me at a big price...

I think Brampour may be better than what we've seen so far. If I remember correctly he was hyped up to the hills last season, only to be a huge disappointment on course. Maybe he has now finally come of age at the race track. The form of his win was boosted by Viva Galieli last week.

Grandouet hasn't shown his best form at Cheltenham but was still in front of Brampour in the triumph. Travelling well behind Celestiao Halo before falling but that horse was hammered by Overturn, who imo, has the best form this season but has had only a 2 week break.

Far too many questions about all the runners for me. Just going to watch this one.

its not surprising nothing could live with clerk's choice at sherwoods...he's a class horse. nothing could live with mille chief on the gallops at kings last year apparently.

Have been really impressed with Grandouet so far, travelled supremely well, and I'll be disappointed if he doesn't go very close here.

the fact that Sherwood doesnt have anything to go with Clerks Choice at home is hardly a big surprise

come on CC,get me out the sh!te!!

cant agree with that last statement

winning a handicap off 151 then beating Cue Card in this race does not entitle him to be favourite giving weight to the likes of Grandouet and facing Overturn and Brampour who have been winning races

Menorah is a place lay in running for me

well done wicketd,Tinkler, Joci. The horse really did look good last time out at Haydock and the form of last seasons Triumph is rather strong.  What about Zarkandar then ?  Personally think Unaccomiped, the filly, is a big price at 25/1. She may be female, but she is built like a tank and trained by a master.

That said, there is the small question of Spirit Son.

I was wondering if Hendersons slight pessimism about Grandeout's chances could be down to how he compares to Spirit Son. Unless trying to put us all away!

wd grandouet backers!!

was out, missed the race, will look later!!

wd.

judorick no place for smart **** on here

thanks sint, just one of those races that work out how you expect it to.

grandouet won by enough to suggest he'll pose a big challenge to HF, so I'm happy with that. He was on the bit over the last and given the perfect ride.

happy with the prices for the CH and won't go in again. If HF comes out and wins showing his usual zest, he'll be the saver. Spirit Son just doesn't appeal to me as a CH candidate, he looked so good over further at Aintree and didn't travel like a CH horse in the supreme. Zarkandar I think was flattered by how far he beat Grandouet at Cheltenham and will have to win the xmas hurdle well to appeal.

Wikcet, SS was a baby in the supreme. The race made a man of him.

kin say that to my face

Don't forget Gibb river and Marsh Warbler were both stuffed in the supreme and have form which ties in with Brampour and Grandouet. The supreme horses who have gone chasing keep on franking the form. He also doesn't have the age stat against him. Only worry at this stage is that we haven't seen him this season yet.

i disagree with the comment that the performance suggests that he  will pose a big problem to HF....if we take overturn to gauge the performance around...his proximity doesn't cause any concern to HF, .he gave 4 and was beat about that....it would be fair to say that overturn may well be feeling the affects of recent runs also.....and HF smashed him up by 17 lengths when he was a relatively fresh horse in the champion.....grandouet is rapidly improving alright but at the moment all todays performance suggests is that he may well be going the right way to being the best of our runners.

What if you base the performance around Menorah? Overturn may have improved as he did beat Binocular recently who finished in front of him in the CH.

you could base it around menorah....but you've got to try and find the most likely horse to have performed somewhere near his best...that's overturn....menorah has had a training program based around chasing.....he's also come back from a setback and looked noticeably weak coming up the hill so imo performed a long way below his best.

HF beat Overturn a long way at the festival, but Overturn clearly didn't run to form that day, unless you think he's barely a 160 hurdler. Overturn was overtaken by four horses before the home bend at Cheltenham, and was hampered on the turn.

A race like the Champion Hurdle doesn't suit him because he'll be hassled by classier types that stay well and can't come from off the pace. He clearly thrives on racing and was just beaten by a better horse today, and he was given his lead and allowed to dominate, I don't think Pittoni ever pressured him.

So yes, Overturn likely ran to form and that in my eyes gives Grandouet a good chance of troubling HF, although in my heart of hearts even if Grandouet improves I think HF will take some stopping. Grandouet has just proven that he's still on the improve. He was on the bridle jumping the last and battled up the hill.

It's comparable with HF/Solwhit imo. I can't see Solwhit going close in any Champion Hurdle as I don't think the race type suits him. HF will beat Solwhit 3 lengths every time in Ireland and does what he has to, put them in a Champion and the distance might be 15 lengths, but it doesn't mean HF has improved 12 lengths.

They knew what would happen with Overturn and rode the race accordingly. As every horse fell back, Grandouet crept in and took his position like a good horse. Showed tactical speed and came straight back onto the bridle when forced wide by Pittoni.

Brampour tracked Grandouet but couldn't match him at a crucial stage, he'll be very interesting over 2m4f.

mccain was under no allusion who was better between his two CH horses last yr and  said peddlers is about a stone better than OT.

But he isn't.

With Overturn, I have the feeling we have seen the best he has to offer already. He's turned into a lovely battling, gutsy type of horse, but I think he might just lack the class to take a Champion Hurdle, and can't see him improving too much now at the age of 7.

I think Grandouet could still be open to a fair amount of improvement, given his age and yesterday she beat some decent horses in Overturn, Menorah and Brampour.

Whether he can improve further this season to be able to take on Hurricane Fly at his best is anyone's guess, as is the question of whether HF will indded be seen at his best this season.

I ust love to see a really strong travelling horse, and Grandouet is this type based on what we've seen so far. Even better, when you have a strong travelling type who also finds more off the bridle when push comes to shove, and I think we saw a little bit of evidence to that effect yesterday.

Grandouet has all of the attributes to becoming a Champion Hurdle horse. His improvement from this time last season is nothing short of astonishing. Looking back through his form he has literally improved in every race. Now he has still got a gap to matching the likes of Hurricane Fly and I would still say he needs to hurdle a touch faster but who is to say he won't improve again. Personally I am on Spirit Son at 14s but I am getting slightly impatient to see him on the track. Hurricane Fly doesn't need experience & he doesn't have to improve so one or two races before the festival will be fine. Spirit Son & Zarkandar need experience in open company and imo will have a lot to prove going into a Champ hurdle off the back of one run.

Just to add a little something,Grandoet in a strongly run race,from the last to the wp 20 seconds. Oscar Whiskey steadier pace,longer distance, from the last 19 seconds.World Hurdle?

I was talking to a well known tv pundit after racing yesterday & he suggested that Brampours connections may have missed a great chance by not giving Ruby the ride, i think he has a fair point.

I think that DERHAM rode the horse just as well as anybody, but the point is that they know a lot more about what they have got and just what is needed for the Champion Hurdle.

ruby is the no 1 jock and shouldve been on th horse, end of!

whats the point in have the best available if they are going to ride the 2nd string. thans not to say ruby couldve got the horse to win or even a better ride but it does blur the lines a little bit whe u have an inferior jockey, and he is inferior by some way given tht ruby is one of if not the greatest of all time, and the stable jock on the 2nd string!  trainers should be making these decisions, not owners and i dont care whose paying the bills, its just not right!

fwiw harry is a good lad and ride a perfectly good race but i just dont agree with it.

No stars in the race and don't think any of the runners will make the frame in the big one.

I wonder if RUBY was ever overlooked so that the stables number
one could ride, every body HAS to start somewhere and some never make it, but at least take a chance sometimes.
He did NOT do ANYTHING wrong, in fact I have never seen him ride a poor race where a big pot has been at stake, I would never go against him just because he is an apprentice, he seems to ride better than a lot of professionals who tootle along at the back and expect their horse to fly like Pegasus at the end of a race.
Ruby has been guilty of that over the years, I wrote a letter of complaint about it to P. NICHOLLS, never got a reply nor did he change his tactic on one horse until the Cheltenham Festival where the horse won for the first time that season.

Martin pipe returns 11 Dec 11 22:06 
No stars in the race and don't think any of the runners will make the frame in the big one.


Interested to hear your prediction for the 1-2-3 at this stage then, if none of yesterday's runners will make the frame?

HF
1000stars
Spirit Son

Harry Derham is a very good young jockey & did his very best. But he isnt Ruby Walsh & he would have definately improved Brampour imo.

1. Spirit Son
2. Hurricane Fly
3. Thousand Stars

Very close Alex :)

Nonsense re Derham. That's as good as Brampour is at this stage of his career. He was running in a handicap and claiming weight. He was running in a Grade two off near levels.

* was not

1. Spirit Son
2. Hurricane Fly
3. Thousand Stars


I'll give you Hurricane Fly. I'd have to see that Spirit Son can repeat his progress of last season into this season, and improve again like Grandouet has, before calling him the Champion Hurdler. Are you sure Mullins will run Thousand Stars in this against Hurricane Fly rather than having a crack at Big Buck's in the World Hurdle? I like the horse very much, but feel his future might be over the longer trip (despite his excellent victoy last time out).

Good point. Will the owners of TS want to take on a fit HF in the Champion, or would they want to take on BB in the World Hurdle.

Actually, it is a tough task whatever way you look at it.

I guess if Willie Mullins runs TS against HF in the Champion then there might be something in it.

im convinced,well as much as you can be with Mullins,that TS will only be in the CH if HF dont make the race.Otherwise the WH.

I'm not sure that the form on Saturday was that good and its possible Overturn is better at 2 1/2m over hurdles. Will Grandouet get the same fastish conditions in the CH ? Is he a Harchibald type who travels well
but only does enough to win? . The big plus for Grandouet is that he appears to be improving all the time
and its difficult to know when it wll level out. Given how well Grandouet and Brampour have run this season you'd have to respect last years triumph hurdle form and it will be interesting to see how Zarkander gets on when he runs. If you take out Hur Fly the CH looks wide open to me. Personally I think HF is an exceptional
2m hurdler and if he turns up in any where near the form he was in last year I doubt anything will trouble him.
It's not impossible that HF might not even run before Cheltenham which would make it  a very diffcult race
for me to to get involved in, although I do already have an an Ante post bet on the race that is too embarrassing to mention as he may have asthma.

P nichols has said in todays RP that Brampour has had a breathing op since he ran last season and that he's
given Zarkander a breathing op in the close season too and hopes he'll improve as much as Brampour has.
He also said it is likely Zarkander will have just the one run before the CH.

Tinkler hurricane Fly did NOT win the Champion Hurdle LAST year.

Thanks for enlightening me.

Brampour has been given an official rating of 168 after Saturdays race with Overturn & Brampour both running to 166.

Just to clarify, Overturn & Grandouet both ran to 166.

1. Spirit Son
2. Hurricane Fly
3. Thousand Stars

Very close Alex :)

i didnt say that was the order- ive backed SS too :)