Horse Antepost
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No thread on the world's second richest turf race? We;; it looks wide open this year outside the favourite so it could pay if you're able to find the winner.
Danedream - Short enough price to back up her Arc win. One of only three 3yos in the race.
Victoire Pisa - 16/1 for the DWC winner? Off the track since that win and is this or HK the target?
Rose Kingdom - Last year's winner by default but only one win since.
Buena Vista - Star filly who was first past the post last year, disqualified and winless since though has finished 2nd in 3 big local races in 2011.
Tosen Jordan - Very interesting contender coming in off the back of an impressive Spring Tenno Sho.
Eishin Flash - Last year's Derby winner but has not won a race since.
Shareta - Surprise second in the Arc but still has to improve a lot to turn the form around with Danedream.
Sarah Lynx - Canadian International winner raiding for French trainer.
Win Variation - Bridesmaid to Japan's star of 2011 Orfevre but with that rival not here, may prove a dark horse at 33/1.
Trailblazer - Dosen't look up to much but always give the mount of Yataka a second look!
Oken Bruce Lee - Leger winner in 2008, local favourite bids to improve on 5th, 2nd & 7th place finishes in this race the last three runnings.
Pelusa - Consistent in the big races, but is he capable of an upset?
As I say a wide open renewal. The fillies are well represented with two raiding from France, and the German trained Arc winner all joining the Japan's herione Buena Vista. Buena Vista did past the post first last year and Vodka won it in 2009 so no doubt fillies do run well in this race but I'm still tempted to look elsewhere. Win Variation is very big at 33/1. He'd be a dual Group One winner were it not for bumping into Orfevre the last 3 times and he's representing the local's Classic generation - though that's a small negative as Rose Kingdom was the first 3yo since 2001 to win. Mention of Rose Kingdom brings last year's 3yos into the reckoning and I'm somewhat unsure as to what kind of races Rose Kingdom and Victoire Pisa will run. Both MASSIVE prices on their best form. Eishin Flash and Tosen Jordan are the others who I expect to be there at the finish.
First three prediction:
1st - Win Variation
2nd - Tosen Jordan
3rd - Victoire Pisa
Danedream - Short enough price to back up her Arc win. One of only three 3yos in the race.
Victoire Pisa - 16/1 for the DWC winner? Off the track since that win and is this or HK the target?
Rose Kingdom - Last year's winner by default but only one win since.
Buena Vista - Star filly who was first past the post last year, disqualified and winless since though has finished 2nd in 3 big local races in 2011.
Tosen Jordan - Very interesting contender coming in off the back of an impressive Spring Tenno Sho.
Eishin Flash - Last year's Derby winner but has not won a race since.
Shareta - Surprise second in the Arc but still has to improve a lot to turn the form around with Danedream.
Sarah Lynx - Canadian International winner raiding for French trainer.
Win Variation - Bridesmaid to Japan's star of 2011 Orfevre but with that rival not here, may prove a dark horse at 33/1.
Trailblazer - Dosen't look up to much but always give the mount of Yataka a second look!
Oken Bruce Lee - Leger winner in 2008, local favourite bids to improve on 5th, 2nd & 7th place finishes in this race the last three runnings.
Pelusa - Consistent in the big races, but is he capable of an upset?
As I say a wide open renewal. The fillies are well represented with two raiding from France, and the German trained Arc winner all joining the Japan's herione Buena Vista. Buena Vista did past the post first last year and Vodka won it in 2009 so no doubt fillies do run well in this race but I'm still tempted to look elsewhere. Win Variation is very big at 33/1. He'd be a dual Group One winner were it not for bumping into Orfevre the last 3 times and he's representing the local's Classic generation - though that's a small negative as Rose Kingdom was the first 3yo since 2001 to win. Mention of Rose Kingdom brings last year's 3yos into the reckoning and I'm somewhat unsure as to what kind of races Rose Kingdom and Victoire Pisa will run. Both MASSIVE prices on their best form. Eishin Flash and Tosen Jordan are the others who I expect to be there at the finish.
First three prediction:
1st - Win Variation
2nd - Tosen Jordan
3rd - Victoire Pisa
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Replies: 12
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Making assumption , here, but how is DANEDREAM being assessed, particularly on size in relation to other Japanese trained horses, does her diminuative stature cause giggles amongst Japanese scribes and observers?
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Great write up Viva, I've backed To The Glory three times this week at 50-1 and 40-1 EW. I really liked the way he traveled in the Tenno Sho from a wide draw. That was his first race since June and the trip would of been on sharp side for him. He nearly beat Victoire Pisa and Buena Vista last year and his trainer has sated that he's been very impressive in his work since the Tenn Sho. He looks a massive price compared to the more fancied runners and I'm quietly confident To The Glory is going to run a big race tomorrow.
To The Glory Trainer comments. "He was trying to deal with the high pace from an outside raw in the Tenno Sho and when he hit the hill in the stretch it was tough for him and he hung in. But he still pushed on and really showed the kind of ability he has. Since then he has improved dramatically. Of my three horses, he has shown the most improvement. As long as the pace in the race isn't really slow I think he can do well. He has what it takes to win a G1." |
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You make a very good case for To The Glory MrD.....I was prepared to totally ignore him. Might have something small on him with main bet Win Variation. It's also interesting that Ikee fancies TTG more than his supposed best hope Tosen Jordan. I wonder is this an oversight on the part of the British bookmakers or is there a similiar feeling in Japan (that To The Glory has a better chance than Tosen Jordan)?
Can't help with that question Bazzar but I do think Danedream is plenty short enough at 5/2. Fair enough her Arc win was sensational and a repeat here would be enough. However it was so good, you'd have to wonder if it wasn't just a once-off. Nakayama Festa came within inches of an Arc last year and disappointed badly in the Japan Cup. I wouldn't go as far as to say that Danedream will disappoint but she may find a couple too strong - it'll certainly take a serious effort to back up the Arc performance. |
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Ithink that DANEDREAM is ONE of the MOST UNDERESTIMATED horses in my lifetime, watch a re-run of her win in GERMANY on a bog and how she sprints away from bigger, stronger older horses.
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I had a good look at the race last Sunday Viva and he looked the best value bet in the race to me. He travels strongly in his races and I think this race will suit him even more over this longer trip. His fitness let him down in the last furlong of the Tenno Sho!
This looks an absolute crackerjack of a race with Danedream running and I agree with you Viva she is worth taking on. Wide draw, firm fast ground and 3 year olds not having a great record in the race would worry me a lot! She was amazing in the Arc but this is going to be a tougher test. Good look with your bets Viva. |
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Win , lose or draw , To the Glory was a major rick on the initial ante post prices at 50/1- reassuring in this day and age that this can still happen !
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I thought Tosen Jordan looked a big price at 10/1, but then I see he is drawn 16 of 16
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Stellar, I couldn't believe To The Glory's price earlier in the week, so I took the 50-1 then backed him again after the draw. He has beaten Tosen Jordan, Pelusa and a few others in previous races. Having watched the Tenno Sho over and over again he was the one that stood out and I'm hoping he turns the form around with Tosen Jordan and the wonderful Buena Vista.
The bookies did the same in this years Dubai World Cup race with the Japanese runners, they haven't got a clue how to price them up, which is great for us lot and makes a nice change. |
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVI82hiXoGg
Well justice has been served because Buena Vista should kept the race last year. Tosen Jordan ran an impressive race as did Jaguar Mail who finished fast (think he was second in this in 2008 behind Screen Hero?) Win Variation was looking good for a moment or two in the straight, after a cheeky mid-race manoeuvre sweeping round the whole field. Disappointments: Vitoire Pisa struggled all the way round and Danedream ran okay but certainly not to her Arc form. |
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A well deserved win for the fabulous Buena Vista. She was mugged last year and this proves once again how brilliant she is.
My pick To The Glory was in the perfect position but just didn't fire down the straight! They didn't seem to go a fast pace which didn't suit TTG, he didn't settle too well coming out the gates, wasting energy. No complaints though, the best horse won. The Tenno Sho form held up well with Tosen Jordan running another cracker and Buena Vista getting the upper hand this time. Well done to those who backed Buena Vista. |
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just seen the race...been away all weekend.
good right up viva. buena vista excellent... .... hong kong next!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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Wonder is Vitoire Pisa finished now or maybe just needed the race?
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