***Cathay Pacific Hong Kong International Races - 11 Dec***

2011 site:

http://www.cxhkir.com/english/hkir2011/main.asp

Excellebration still going for the Mile??

Yes he is, was speaking to Wally Pyrah yesterday and he said Excellebration's connections have accepted the invitation. Cup looks like it will be a tougher race this year with possibly Cirrus Des Aigles, Ambitious Dragon and California Memory from the home team.

What Europeans are going over?

Any chance APOB will send over a few? Been no word of retirement for any of his 2011 stable stars thus far?

And has Mike De **** said anything? Been waiting for Musir to run since his win in Turkey!

Who are the local's headline acts?

Viva the headline acts are ambitious dragon and california memory. both may go in the cup race though. In the sprint you can still remy on the old boy as nothing much else has stood out. Irian is going for the vase, nothing much stands out in the mile. As the op mentioned the nominations are announced on weds, probably during the happy valley meeting. Looking forward to the day, will be my 4th time and if it lives up to last year it will be another cracking day.

Last I heard Bated Breath was going for the Sprint. I presume this is still the case

The following are intended runners, should be able to confirm tomorrow...

Mile - Excelebration, Cityscape

Cup - Snow Fairy (could go for Vase), Cirrus des Aigles, California Memory

Vase -  Red Cadeaux, Dunedin, Trailblazer, Thumbs Up Americain doesn't go.

Sprint - Bated Breath, Rocket Man (hopefully), Rich Unicorn, Little Bridge, Entrapment, Joy and Fun, Curren Chan

Fato - don't forget Sacred Kingdom in the sprint, may be pushing on in years but probably still be the best from the home team.

Cup race - selected invites/runners Cirrus Des Aigles, Ambitious Dragon, Victoire Pisa, California Memory, - Byword, Durban Thunder Zazou, Irian

Mile - Excelebration, Jimmy Choux, Sahpresa, Xtension, Rajasman, Beauty Flash, Able One, Destined For Glory, Flying Blue

Sprint - selected runners/invites;  Rocket Man, Bated Breath, Sacred Kingdom, Society Rock, Curren Chan, Lucky Nine, Little Brige, Regally Ready, Entrapment

Vase - selected runners Snow Fairy, Shareta, Dunaden, Mighty High, Jakkalberry, Campanologist, Mr Mrdici, Thumbs Up, Silver Pond, Vadamar, Red Cadeaux.

The Cup is very interesting. My shortlist would be as follows:

Cup - Ambitious Dragon, CdA, Victoire Pisa
Mile - Excelebration
Sprint - Rocket Man, Little Bridge
Vase - Snooooooo Fairyyyyy, Dunaden, Vadamar

Campanologist and Red Cadeaux are interesting. I can't see Red Cadeaux having the class to beat her stablemat though..

[i]EXCELEBRATION will miss next month's Hong Kong Mile after a dirty scope and will next appear on a racecourse under the care of Ballydoyle trainer Aidan O'Brien.

The Marco Botti-trained star three-year-old, who won the Group 1 Prix du Moulin in September and chased home Frankel in the Queen Elizabeth II last month, will travel to Ballydoyle just before Christmas.[/i]

And now Snow Fairy. A real disappointment.

Pity about Excelebration and Snow Fairy but it doesnt half open up those two races with 5/1 and 6/1 the field at the mo . I thought the HK horses were in for a modest year this year with all three hotpots losing on Trials day but the above two bankers gives them a squeak in those races and they may yet come up with a local winner or two

Stellar - cold light of day time, the hotpots on trials day had good reason. AD was running over a mile and giving all runners bar 2 5lbs, he got a shocking ride on the pace 4 wide all the way and still only got beaten a short head, Xtension may be the one to take out of the race for the mile as he was drawn 12 and was beaten 3/4 length.

California Memory was also a very unlucky runner in the cup trial, again giving 5lbs to all runners. Thumbs Up, the winner, was having his first run over 2000m since coming 2nd to Collection 2 years ago,apparently they were having a right go at this race as he is a known bleeder. Irian, who was narrowly beaten by Snow Fairy in the cup last year was 3rd. California Memory didn't get the run of the race, but that's the trouble with hold up horses.

Entrapment did have his bubble burst, simply not good enough.

Think both AD and CM have very good chances in the cup.


The vase is wide open now SF is out, bet they wish they'd entered Irian in that one now.

All interesting and a big shame SF and Excelebration are out, but will still be an excellent day.

HK Accie , there is a lot of merit in what you say.AD was not desperately unlucky in the Mile trial as was suggested in the Racing Post , the tactics may have been flawed for sure and not playing to his strengths but I was still disapointed in him after the wow factor of his seasonal debut over 7f . Guyon hit him 7/8 times in his last eight strides so he was all out and getting a hard race to boot , for me he has it to prove again on Sunday week. California Memory was like watching a car crash , from 6f out you could see that Chadwick had two chances of extricating himself from the pocket Beadman had put him in and he was probably unlucky not to win in the circumstances although it is hard to be definite on that point. Mr Medici got no run in his trial and might not be too far away in the Vase whereas it is hard to see Thumbs Up improving on his seventh place in the race a couple of years ago. Xtension was certainly the eyecatcher in the Mile trial although I have heard a suggestion that he is becoming quirky in himself especially coming out of stalls. Thought Little Bridge won very snugly in the Sprint trial and he rather than Sacred Kingdom could prove the best local hope in the Sprint where the local team is noticeably poor compared to normal.Bottom line , if Rocket Man and Cirrus Des Aigles bring their A game they will be very hard to beat whereas the other two races now resemble lotteries.

Stellar, I still think Sacred Kingdom is still the top local sprinter, gave Entrapment 12lbs over 1000m and was beaten just 3/4l FTO this season, so on a line he has the beating of Little Bridge. They have certainly laid him out for this race, but I suppose if Rocket Man brings his A game then he will be very hard to beat, but will he after Japan? CDA did get beaten in the race last year, do you think he's had a hard season? The local horses have had the benefit of the summer break and they are no mugs. Will be waiting for the draws before deciding on the Mile and Sprint, going will be perfect as only a bit of rain expected on Monday and Tuesday, just getting a bit cooler.

Campanologist

10/1 looks good.Stable won this last year.

Sprint:
Rocket Man is rated so far above the rest of the field, as mentioned, if he brings his A game and isn't drawn badly he should win. 3/1 with Hills isn't bad odds. On recent form I like Curren Chan - beaten a few of the field. Bated Breath could be a spot of value at 10s. In 3 of his last 4 races he's finished 2nd in G1s, all by small margins. Society Rock beat him earlier in the season but that was on Soft. The form was reversed on Good. Looks like he goes well fresh too. He's also proven he can travel with the trip to Woodbine. I'd put Little Bridge as an outsider.

Vase:
This is a proper minefield and I can't be confident about any pick. Campanologist's recent form is solid, and Frankie on board gives me confidence - he has a good record in this meeting. It's interesting that Corals are dodging Silver Pond - they marked him as fav ever since their prices went up, so this can't be driven by a big bet. Trailblazer is the market mover.

Mile:
Xtension has had a good prep for this. I also like Apapane - triple crown winning Japanese filly, and she gets an allowance. At 18/1 I think she;s a bit of e/w value.

Cup:
CDA was beaten fair and square last year, and I just don't think he's good value at the odds. Irian has had a good prep, came 2nd last year and is good e/w value IMO. However I think California Memory will be my main bet at the odds. I think it's hard to seperate him and Ambitious Dragon on what I've seen, but one is 11/4, the other 10/1... :) I think Byword has a chance but I don't rate the rest of the field.

Can you confirm if Sichuan Success is definite runner in the Mile ?

The odds-compiler of Korral flagged this one up on twitter, and the horse got no run whatsoever lto, finished full of himself and so I have backed at 28/1. You can still get 12/1 and watching the replay (youtube) that still looks a fair price.!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB0WKLN4fGM

No.10 Yellow Jacket on the rail in 5th/6th

Sint, to watch the best replays use the hkjc website, just search for any horse name and the form can be looked up, every race the horse has run can be watched. SS was really fancied lto, was sent off fav, carried 6 lbs less than the first 2, no news as to him being pulled out.

HKA, CDA has only had ten runs in 2011 coming into the HK Cup which is a light season compared to 2009 when he had 14 runs before only going down by a length in the Vase. The horse thrives on hard work and has got better each season the longer it goes on . Nick Mordin has a theory that he is vulnerable off a break and runs better backing up within 2/3 weeks or so. That said , he ran to a similar level in 2009/2010 in HK as he had back in Europe so he holds his form well on his travels . He has improved 10lbs this year in Europe on his 2009/2010 form so all in all I will be very surprised if he gets beat on Sunday . Hopefully the locals will steam into AD and CM on Sunday and CDA becomes a backable price ....

Unfortunately the locals know International racing as we get plenty of simulcast racing to watch and bet on from around the globe these days, they won't let CDA go off too long, the champions day was one of the simulcast days. I do suspect there will be a mass exodus though if AD gets turned over though just like there was in 2009 when Collection got beaten in the cup. I'll be happy with the same result as last year with 2 of the 4 winners!

HKA ,I was fairly underwhelmed with the local horses on trials day leaving Sha Tin thinking they would struggle to get a winner on the big day but the defection of Snow Fairy and Excelebration hasnt half opened up the Mile and Vase leaving it open to the locals to sneak a win. Dunaden is 7/1 fav to win the vase , I doubt the fav has ever gone off as high as 7/1 in the history of HK racing or even 6/1 the field in the Mile ! Jimmy Choux is better going left handed otherwise he would have an obvious chance in the Mile , Rocket Man now out to 3/1 in the Sprint is starting to resemble value as it is his race to lose quite frankly . What price will CDA go off on the local tote HCA ?

Interesting question stellar, last year snow fairy was smashed in just prior to the off and started fav, which really fooked me off! I think it will be close between CDA and AD, depends where the syndicate money goes.I'm not committing to the sprint until the draw tomorrow, I know RM is the best in the field but Sacred Kingdom has been prepared for this race and I'd love to see the old boy do it, the roof would come off! Will you be attending on sunday?

cheers HK.

Someone on ATR earlier said Curren Chan is the NAP in the Sprint.

Japanese sprinters have as bad a record as European sprinters in the Sprint generally so CC is no nap material . Also , Japanese horses suffered major delays in transit to HK last Friday so would be a little wary of taking too strong a view on them . Will be in attendance on Sunday HKA , will still be surprised if AD doesnt go off favourite but it will be interesting !

God work stellar will be my 4th time attending, I'm sure AD will go off fav. are you at the valley tonight for the start of the fun?

Sint - Douglas very sweet on SS, just saw him interviewed on TV, also on AD.

Cheers mate. Have 28/1 about him but watching his run lto think 12's aint a bad price tbh.

Mile is wide open so a very good price indeed.

HK, do you have any idea as to what the going might be ? I'd be interested in Vadamar if there was some cut in the ground ..

No rain forecast, we've only had a sprinkle in the last month so it won't have cut unless the forecast is wrong. Getting cooler for the weekend, you can check the forecast on the Hong Kong Observatory

Not good for RM or SC.

Nothing huge to report in the draw, except the sprint. RM, SK and CC all drawn in the car park, along with bated breath.

SS drawn 13 of 14 in the mile, and Irian 10 of 10 in the Cup.

Love Rod Colletts response:
Rodolphe Collet, trainer, Sahpresa (8)

“I am happy with number 8. It’s better than number 9, which I picked last year. I seem to make some progress every year but I wish I was improving faster. I am told that 8 is a lucky number. Why don’t they give me the winner’s prize money straight away then?”

Havent really looked into these races as yet.

I like Saphresa from 8...should run her typically gallant race. 6/1 eachway is the bet of the meet for me.

The draw is fairly important in the Cup as its only 150m to the first bend. I'll need to check track reports and local info to see how he's getting on but Cirrus Des Aigles looks nap material from 2. That's a helluva time he clocked at Ascot the last day and on very quick ground. Should get the run of the race from 2 and hopefully be a bit too powerful for the locals...speaking of which stalls 4 and 5 have the best record in the Cup and Ambitious Dragon in 5 looks absolutely laid out for this. Hong Kong Derby / QEII is an impressive double. only vengence of rain achieved that in recent years and we all know how top class he was.

The Vase is a International rogues gallery....like dunaden but he might be running out of track near the business end of the race. Will give this race a miss unless I have a eureka moment for someone...odds look quite tasty for exotics.

Sprint...the draw is essential. but the quality is sooo lop sided with all the top horses out wide. what a mess. Will come down to whose day it is. Curry Chan looks good but out of curiousity.....what on earth are Fanshawe (bit far from home imo) and Murtagh doing here?????? Surely not. Unless they're going to try something new with him and take advantage of the draw then I dont see the point.

Lots of good local word for entrapment and Xtension. I struggle to see how entrapment can win on recent form. Xtension I think has a cracking chance if he doesn't mes about in the stalls.

Campanologist

14/1 at Hills looks cracking value.

Any updates from trainers in the 12f race ..

saturday night should be fun. have the office christmas party at Twickenham stadium, then home for the ufc jones vs machida then as soon as thats done...Hong Kong :)))

will have to skip the sunday afternoon racing!!!!

sounds it ELG

Just wanted to here how Vadamar has settle in. He is the only 3yo in the field and at this time of year, bearing in mind he is a 4yo not long from now, the weight advantage must be a right help. Trainer won this race 2years back with Daryakana.

have you tried the south china racing post site as yet?

http://bit.ly/sh0Ekv

The Aga Khan always saves 1 for this meeting.

I think thats what you wanted to hear imo.

yep nice one cheers.

Hopefully there will be an update tomorrow from connections.

At 8/1, he's gotta be worth a smash eachway.

Vadamar isn't 4 until March 16th, so although he'll be 4 in a couple of weeks in the eyes of racing, it'll be 3 and a bit months before he actually is.

From trackwork looks - Silver Pond in the vase is a big plus, Curren Chan looks like the delays in transit have affected most. Japanese commentators think their best chance is Apapane. CDA is currently 3rd fav on the HKJC, but not a huge amount in the win pool.

Looking forward to tomorrows racing at Sha Tin. Apapane is the the only horse I've backed so far. I backed her a few weeks ago in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup when she got touched off by Snow Fairy, her stamina just faded in the last half furlong. The fact she is being dropped back in trip I think is a plus and her race record has been pretty consistent over the last two years beating Buena Vista and running Snow Fairy close twice makes the 20-1 look massive. The trainer and connections seem very confident that she will run a big race, her preparation has gone very smoothly from what it says on the HKJC website track notes.

The Vase looks another wide open race, there are a couple I like the look of but the one I think I will side with is Vadamar. This race has been the plan for a while from what I gather and De Royer-Dupre has had a very good record at Sha Tin over the years. De Royer-Dupre has expressed a number of times that Vadamar is a good ground horse so conditions should be perfect. Vallee Enchantee won the same race at Longchamp as Vadamar did in October before he won the Hong Kong Vase, so I hope the same happens again!

Lucky Nine is the one for me in the sprint, he looked a bit unlucky in Japan getting blocked on the rail when he was making his big move. Whether he can turn the form around with Curren Chan is another matter but I think he is worth a bet with a good draw and the fact he seems to break well from the gates, which could be critical tomorrow.

Cirrus Des Aigles looks nailed on for the Cup but the odds are a bit too skinny for me. His form this year has been sensational and he looks like he's getting better and better with age. If he brings his A game tomorrow he will be very hard to beat. The draw has worked out a treat for him this time so he should be able to sit close to the pace which he likes.

At EW odds Pure Champion could run a big race, he's not that far behind some of the home team and might improve again with another crack at 10f.

Good luck with all your bets tomorrow!

I was alays under the beliefe that Vadamar want some cut in the ground tbh. He did win on Good lto, and I have backed him regardless due to the price and trainer record.

Alain de Royer Dupre, trainer, Vadamar (Vase)
Vadamar followed Byword on the turf track on Thursday morning with big race jockey Christophe Lemaire in the stirrups. A typically laid back Byword did not help the Alain de Royer Dupre grey colt to set record fractions but the French trainer was pleased all the same: “Our horse started far behind the other horse and would probably have passed him if Christophe did not restrain him a bit in the end. I don't mind at all though. Vadamar looks great, moves well and I have absolutely no reservation about his level of fitness for Sunday's race. The ground will suit him too.”

Personally I feel Dalakhani's normally prefer a bit of cut in the ground but watching Vadamar and his action he looks more of a good/fast ground horse.

My picks...

Vase: Trailblazer 10/1 eachway. Like his form...summer break then 3 nice runs.....last run was a very respectable 4th in the Japan Cup. His trainer Yasutoshi Ikee is simply outstanding at G1 and International level. Supreme. He's trained some of the best to win the best in the Japan and abroad. Even won this race back in the day. Nice switch with the jockey too. Never liked Yutake Take so switching back to Ando who won a red hot G2 Handicap on him is a very positive move. Icing on the cake was his breathtaking gallop earlier in the week. Quite sweet on him. 

Sprint....just dont know.....Admiration in the first time blinker is interesting...but I'll pass.

Mile: Sticking to Sahpresa eachway 7/1. Been running well whole season and I thought she was top class in the Sun Chariot with that blistering turn of foot to swamp them in the final furlong. Came from a mile back last time in Japan so hoping for a good showing here.

Cup: Cirrus Des Aigles or Ambitious Dragon....him....I'll play CDA and small play on the RFC between the two.

gents are there markets available on here for this? Cheers

Well no joy for me.

I have to say some of these Aussie jocks are phucking shocking,imo.

SINTONIAN, why is it that jockeys who ride regularly in Britain, tootle along at the back and EXPECT their horse to fly like PEGASUS against seasoned group one horses, MOORE and HUGHES.

probably because more often than not you get a decent gallop over here. I have lost count at the amount of slow run Group 1's I have seen abroad this season. In Aus,France and HK.

If you referring to Dubawi Gold .. he is always ridden like that.

Vadamar was very disappointing, didn't break well and never travelled. Lucky Nine ran a cracker, he came out the gates awkwardly but Brett Prebble didn't panic and got a perfect run down the straight and finished it off with strong sustained run. All the Japanese runners ran flat, maybe the travel problems they had getting to Hong Kong was the cause of their poor performance. The Cup was another one of those slow paced international races that seems to keep happening these days. I thought I had a chance with Pure Champion dictating the pace but he never picked up like he did in his last race and was one paced. Cirrus Des Aigles was disappointing again at Sha Tin, track doesn't seem to be his cup of tea!

Overall happy to come out of it with a profit but there were some very iffy rides to say the least.

Well done with Lucky Nine Mr Dinos - a good pick. You just cant ignore the HK form in this. I had small change on him but was committed to Curren Chan in the antepost betting. No Japanese horses placed did they? And arguably they had some strong form coming into the race - the travel issues must have played a part. Trailblazer was the only one on a different plane so he didnt have the same excuse.

A fairly poor year for me- just got the Cup right with California Memory and Irian. Unfortunately I didn't stake as much on CM as I did on my selections for the other races, as was very wary that the local HK market must know better than me when it came to CM vs AD! I'll learn from that one...

Dunaden looked very good in the vase. I completely underestimated him.

The odds discrepancies were huge - Campanologist 9/4 there, 10/1 here. Did I hear correctly that California Memory was 66/1 in HK?!

In DUBAWI GOLD'S race the horse which raced in second place went and won the race, never more than 5 lengths off the pace.
RED CADEAUX had only 2 horses behind him until MOORE decided he needed to be closer after the home turn, meanwhile DUNADEN had been 4 lengths closer to the pace and had MUCH more in reserve for the finish, RED CADEAUX ACTUALLY got in front of DUNADEN but had shot his bolt in trying to make up ground after the home turn, two poor rides and if a horse is always ridden in such a way, isn't it time to try different tactics, especially 1 group one races?

Cheers FatoteSport, it was another good performance from Lucky Nine, really like the way he finishes his races and Brett Prebble deserves a lot of credit for his ride. I backed him in the BMW Champion Mile earlier on in the year when he nearly beat Xtension, hopefully they will give him another crack at a mile race next year!

Good picks FS with California Memory and Irian. The Jockey Club Cup showed it was the form race with the winner Thumbs Up coming second in the Vase as well. I chose the wrong one from that race unfortunately.

Dunaden and Red Cadeaux ran superb races, I didn't think the ground would suit them at all with it being on the quick side but they showed the Melbourne Cup was a good race this year. Loved the way Dunaden stuck his head out and pinged his ears back when he got to the front, a real gutsy horse.

Cityscape was another who ran blinder on ground he wouldn't of liked. It's a shame there wasn't any rain around, I think it would have made betting slightly easier!!!

fair point Bazzar.

Some crazy odds on course at Sha Tin today , Campanologist and Vadamar were way too short in the Vase , Xtension in the Mile was just over even money , Little Bridge was around 7/4 in the sprint - all nutty stuff with value out the window . The best example of all was Able One at 66/1 having been around even money last year when withdrawn at the start . Hadnt done a whole lot wrong since except it appeared to run poorly in the Trial when he was restrained by Beadman inexplicably for a horse who likes to go forward . HKA did warn me about late money but I got sick of the sight of 'green' on the tote board ( which denotes late significant money )on horses I backed as they were good value at the time  . In the last 3 mins before the off , Silver Pond went from 20/1 to 5/1 , Rajsaman went from 40/1 to 15/1 and Cirrus des Aigles went from 10/3 to 12/5 , not that it mattered what their SP was in the circumstances when they all got beat - Silver Pond would certainly have been second with a clear run , Rajsaman fell out of the stalls and had no chance thereafter while Cirrus ran a bit flat but got a far from inspired ride from Soumillion. It was startling how Ambitious Dragon faltered late on but he did have a hard race in the trial and maybe he is better over shorter the way he ran today ? Good to see an Irish bred sprinter break the Australian monopoly on winning the HK sprint. Overall , the results were a little disapointing with some of the stars failing dismally , most notably AD , CDA and Rocket Man. There was no standout performance and no new stars were born although it was nice to see the local jockey Chadwick atone for his nightmare in the trial on California Memory.

Is there any way to bet on the HK tote from the UK?

Cityscape, the highest rated horse in the mile, was a nuts 32/1. I know he'd have preferred rain, but at those odds was surely a spot of value! Dubawi gold 102/1 and within a neck of 3rd.

In the sprint Bated breath 106/1, Sole Power 181/1, SocRoc 148/1. Good reasons why you wouldn't back them at UK bookies odds (sole power a 5f horse, Bated breath badly drawn) but those odds are temptingly inflated.

The HK Jockey Club have been trying for years to have 'co-mingling' of betting from all over the world into their pools but have met resistance from their Govt. There is now talk of having an offshore presence to achieve this purpose as their frustration mounts

Sintronian, you did stipulate that "SOME" of the Australian jockeys were shocking, but overall "MOST" of them were excellent, 3 Australian jockeys produced 1st and 2nd in the VASE, 4 Australian jockeys produced 1st 2nd and 3rd in the SPRINT, 2 Australian jockeys produced the 3rd in the MILE and in the cup 2 Australian jockeys produced 2nd and 4th.
I am English so am not bragging for Australian jockeys, just wish "OUR" jockeys would try to improve any skills they MIGHT have and rid themselves of this complacency and get some PRIDE.
HUGHES, MOORE and several others can't be bothered to work out how to win and DEPEND on every other horse in GROUP ONES to fold and give up when challenged, but because of all the ground they have had to make(because of lack a daisical starts, especially with MOORE, watch him on PRESVIS it'll break your heart) up in getting into a position to challenge.

the ride on Dunaden was excellent.