Oscar Whisky - Odds against

can only assume you dont have a p@ddy power account or live near a b1lly hills,
as there going 6/4 and 11/8 respectively

6/4 does look big as he should win this race on the bridle.

i think king of the night has a squeek but 6/4 is a decent enough price on what hes shown!

i'm in.

I'm not.

Oscar rated 165, King Of The Night 157.  Oscar has to give KON 8lbs.  One yard flying, the other just doing alright.  One horse bang in form and rapidly improving, the other making seasonal debut.  One horse 11/8, the other 5/1.

I'd have thought KON at 5/1 e/w 1, 2, 3 before decs is a maximum lads.

Agree HM. KOTN won with head in chest lto and at the prices is the pick,imo.

won a gash handicap.  OW different level to these mugs

im in

5/1 only available at B-yls anyway, everywhere else is 4/1 & 7/2. Best to wait until day of the race as prices wont change much.

Was thinking we might not get 8 decs though, sint.  Any Given Day and Celestial definitely not running, don't think Afsoun is either.  More about that 3rd place than a price change.

Wouldn't sit here pretending they're the strongest handicaps ever run, plat.  But the horse has been laughing at them.  A bigger worry is the switch from Walsh to Jacob.

OW won first time out easily last season,and against this lot he should win easily again.Totally different league.
Rest playing for places.
Good price,no doubt.

Official ratings:

Oscar 165
Overturn 164
King 157

Oscar's giving away 8lbs.

What do Oscar fans think these ratings should be then?  Presumably it can only be they think Oscar is much better than 165 or Overturn and King are nowhere near 164 and 157?  The RPRs tell a similar story to the O/Rs so would be interesting to hear the alternative view.

What do Oscar fans think these ratings should be then?  Presumably it can only be they think Oscar is much better than 165 or Overturn and King are nowhere near 164 and 157?

bitta both

not a ratings slave but wouldnt fancy king off 157 in a h/c, ot has been tonked at graded level every time

ow is a G1 winner, should have placed in a supreme and placed in a champ hurdle.

Oscar Whisky - Master minded singles and double is what i will be playing, and large!

Only 1lb? the Churdle tells a different story,oscar still improving imo and is better over further.
I would have them further apart than 1lb,thats for sure.

No bet race imo prices about right, Overturn could well be suited by further having stayed longer than 2m on the flat and will like the ground.

What about the other Oscar W as well

Both Oscar W's look overpriced to me

kotn is absolutely never a 157 horse, place lay for saturday.

Money down now. Best priced 5/4. 4/5 with baddies

Money down now. Best priced 5/4. 4/5 with baddies

Is Oscar Whiskey as big a certainty as Hurricane Fly was when 1/2 on Monday?

Your point UP?

What price would you have them at BJG?

he is an odds on chance, was placed in a pretty decent CH! he would win this race more often than not win it imo = odds on!

Off level weights OW would prob eat these alive over  2 1/2m . But he's set to concede 8lb to 2 inform rivals and
hasn't run for 224 days . The race looks to have no strength in depth and imo Overturn is a non stayer leaving
what looks like a bet to nothing e/w on KOTN. If they go quick and OW isn't in peak shape KOTN may grind him
down with an 8lb pull, if he does't its difficult to see him not coming in the first 3. The race has a perfect
e/w shape to it ,the only doubt is whether  all 8 will stand their ground. I've backed it regardless

not impossible by any stretch tinkler!!

the only thing id say is that upon reflection of the race, kotn should prob be a bigger price on his recent handicap performances! yes they were stylish but hes against a horse that placed behind two outstanding horses in h'fly and peddlers! is kotn this good? prob not but he might catch ow on an off day for sure!

no such thing as free money imo anyway but i have backed oscar in this race!

gl

On what basis is Overrturn a non-stayer ? He has a won a Chester Cup on the flat!

4-6 shot should hose up

Oscar Whisky

The Chester Cup is a red herring imo . He won getting a soft lead on fast ground around a tight flat track.
He could get a soft lead tommorrow with Cel Halo pulling out but with good ground and steady rise from 1 mile out I don't see him seeing the trip out. On the positive side he's well in at the weights and Hardy Eustace
made all in this twice and his best trip was 2m.

Ideally you want a horse to stay 2m well on the flat for a longer race over Hurdles, think Overturn could may well drift and imo he'd be a knocking bet if he drifted on this ground

before getting stuffed by the legend in march i hasten to add

Zilzal
Fair point. He's very much a fast ground horse and they broke the track record on the 2 m hurdles course
at the last meet. May have misjudged it.

now now Howdi

Yes, am inclined to think Overturn will get the trip quite comfortably in these conditions and with the possibility of being granted an easy lead. I suspect he and OW will pull well clear and have quite a tussle before Oscar's class comes to the fore and gets him past after the last flight.

King Of The Night is not for me. I know he is improving and in great fettle right now but I just don't see him possessing sufficient class to mix it with the top two.

I think there is a doubt about Overturn staying too.

Oscar beat it easy enough in the CH

I will be staggared if KOTN is a 157 horse and is imo 15lb at least inferior to OW.

As for the 8lbs , I think wieght slaves go bust quicker than any other punter , yes it is a consideration but NOT set in stoen, one bad jump can = 6lb

I believe OW will gag up , has he ever looked in need of his first run ? NO

Is the stable out of form ? NO

If I priced this up I would have OW at 4/7 ish and fully expect him to murder these.

He has been beaten twice in his life , once by 4 1/2 in a very good Supreme Novice Hurdle and once by 6 1/2 in the best Champion Hurdle for many a year.

I am guilty of trying too hard to get these short ones beat most of the time but this time I believe odds against is the WRONG price and an absolute gift.

For those that like to the 5/4 hills will offer an in running trade of at least 1.5 imo.

Massive bet for me tomorrow and if I am wrong so be it.

I would NOT want to be laying this VERY impressive animal at 5/4 against a horse that won a Netwon Abott hcap and a qualifier that is always a joke and a horse he beat easy before who might not even stay

Really looking forward to the race. I have OW as a slight odds-on chance so 5-4 looks very tasty given his undoubted class, and I agree, Zippie, weight for me is not as big an issue as many people make it out to be.

I suppose I am just slightly wary that Overturn is a very good horse and that if he was to get a soft lead and quicken coming into the straight OW will have to be pretty straight first time up to get him. I think he will, but I don't think it will be easy. I'd also say that weight (to me anyway) might potentially be more of an issue when horses are not quite 100% as an anchor must have more of an effect if a horse blows up. But, as you say, OW has never looked like a horse that doesn't turn out for his first run of the season in very good nick.

A new KING will be crowned tomorrow!

tomdeane Joined: 29 Jul 04
Replies: 405 18 Nov 11 22:32 
Yes, am inclined to think Overturn will get the trip quite comfortably in these conditions and with the possibility of being granted an easy lead. I suspect he and OW will pull well clear and have quite a tussle before Oscar's class comes to the fore and gets him past after the last flight.

King Of The Night is not for me. I know he is improving and in great fettle right now but I just don't see him possessing sufficient class to mix it with the top two



think lough derg will take him on myself!

^ Will he be quick enough though? I'd expect LD to find Overturn too speedy and then sulk after a few flights when the pace is too hot to handle, leaving Overturn to do as he pleases.

im not so sure tom, he will get some sort of hassle i think!!

a great chance tho and mccain rates him his best chance of a winner!

A tired looking jump from OW when he fell imo. Hope he is OK.

Horse looked fine thankfully - not so sure about some posters bank balances

Totally mis-judged this race. KOTN ran no sort of race and his previous efforts may have bottomed him out.
Overturn set a decent pace and jumped great. OW looked like he may have needed the run pre-race but would probably
have won imo if he'd stayed up though its far from certain.

Felt he was going to win too. Was very relieved to see both horse and jockey get up, looked a bad fall at the time.