Horse Antepost
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07 Nov 11
17:45
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20 Sep 06
interesting match-up with australia day. for me they should be much close in the betting, i'd go 2.3 each of two, the rest of the field
are rags.
megastar a huge great thing that was always going to be a chaser. blew up somewhat on his first chase start after looking threatening in the straight.
for me he's very much one to follow. outsider for the arkle perhaps?
australia day made his debut on this track when second to ultimate, then improved on that when trotting up on his second start, but makes a few chancey leaps. an exciting front-runner but could set it up perfect for megastar, who will like the strong gallop given he has a tendency to pull.
australia day also has to concede weight to megastar and his best bet in my opinion is to go such a pace that he'll force megastar into jumping errors. if megastar is upsides going into the straight difficult not to see him winning.
accept this isn't a big race but these sort of novice chase match-ups interest me (was a great one at sandown on saturday) and of course theres peddlers cross vs al ferof later in the week.
whatever the result tomorrow I predict both of theses will be profitable to follow.
are rags.
megastar a huge great thing that was always going to be a chaser. blew up somewhat on his first chase start after looking threatening in the straight.
for me he's very much one to follow. outsider for the arkle perhaps?
australia day made his debut on this track when second to ultimate, then improved on that when trotting up on his second start, but makes a few chancey leaps. an exciting front-runner but could set it up perfect for megastar, who will like the strong gallop given he has a tendency to pull.
australia day also has to concede weight to megastar and his best bet in my opinion is to go such a pace that he'll force megastar into jumping errors. if megastar is upsides going into the straight difficult not to see him winning.
accept this isn't a big race but these sort of novice chase match-ups interest me (was a great one at sandown on saturday) and of course theres peddlers cross vs al ferof later in the week.
whatever the result tomorrow I predict both of theses will be profitable to follow.
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i think MS needs a bit of cut
no one will take on AD for the lead and only a 4 runner so should put them to the sword. at 1.8 above id be a backer tbh gl |
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Very interesting matchup for sure - I agree that both should be profitable to follow. As ever, it's probably a price thing, but I was quite taken with Megastar under the circumstances at Ascot last time and see him being a better chaser than hurdler.
I have a hunch that he might well prove the one to beat here but we shall see... |
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I thought Megastar looked like Bambi on ice last time. Australia Day looked far more comfortable over fences so no contest for me.
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bambi on ice
 not sure if australia day is rock-solid either, as he makes some pretty risky leaps, could be heart in the mouth stuff. certainly won't be a boring race. denis o regan will just let australia day bowl on, for me there are two possible scenarios that will develop. either, australia day goes such a pace that he'll force megastar to go a few strides quicker than he likes and when the jockey asks megastar to close he'll under too much pressure and australia day will stride clear to win easily. or, the scenario that i'm betting on, australia day gives a nice lead to megastar, but megastar is able to keep tabs on him and puts in the safer and more efficent leaps, australia day makes some horrible mistake when megastar finally moves up to put him under pressure and the race is over fairly quickly. that's how I see it anyway, although I accept it's all about opinions  |
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if ground is good or faster and Australia Day jumps cleanly, no contest at this trip
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off the top of my head and without consulting my records i think megastar let me down at short odds after running a blinder in a much stronger race
i then recouped a bit place laying at cheltenham and aintree but still cost me a fortune * this might be complete nonsense and i could be thinking of another horse but that name is jumping out at me * |
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MS will do well to get within 20L of AD tomorrow imo such is the make up of the race!
lke platinni says, if he gets an easy lead theyre done for! id want atleast 4/1 on MS and i still wouldnt back him! AD wasnt too convinving the time before but hes gonna love the track and its looking like good ground so if he jumps around he will prob win as he likes(famous last words) gl |
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Think this is a really fascinating one because I'm convinced Megastar wants to come off a very fast pace (will help him settle), and I thought he jumped well when given his head at Ascot and the errors were either not his fault or came from going too slow. As you say, ilwab, it's the ground and trip that make AD the obvious one, but I just feel Megastar is a lot better than people think.
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yeah i like the horse too tom and certainly has the ability to beat AD fair and square!if it was a bigger field id fancy him more!!
gl if u have a bet! |
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^ Think I'll almost certainly just watch with interest, unless Megastar hits some silly price pre-race.
As an amusing side note, watching AD should always be interesting. Can't remember reading race comments as odd as these before: "Mounted outside paddock and taken down early, jumped fence in false start, set ferocious pace and pulled hard, terrible mistake 1st, led, blundered 4th, huge and awkward jump 5th, 7 lengths clear after 3 out, headed and awkward next, soon outpaced." |
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i think if ad jumps well, he wins
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haha yeah i had a little chuckle myself!! i love bold front runners but setting the right pace s crutial..obviously!
facinating race!! peddlers on wed too, cannae wait! |
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just because A S beat some trash horses by half the length of the straight (admittedly the 2nd went on to win its next race, but that was a dire contest) hardly means that megastar is going to do well to get within 20 lengths of it.
incidentally someone has laid 2 pence of my 999-1 bet on the complete outsider in this, risking 19.98 quid to win 2 pence and if you thought that was bad, someone else (possibly the same person) has risked 9.99 to win 1 pence on global domination in the last on the same card |
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btw ilikewavingatbuses, i'd like to know what leap of logic led you to the conclusion that "if he jumps around he wins as he likes", given that there was precious little between australia day and megastar over hurdles?
if only the game was that easy  |
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megastar needs a fast pace and more of a test imo (and poss softer ground)
having said that a day is always the type to throw in a poor jump so mstar may win by default prices look about right at present |
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its a good ground 4 runner novice chase, a u say its all about opinions and i believe the race is made for AD, he'll love the flat track, hes a bold jumper and IF he jumps well i dont see megastar getting close to him!
dont take it so personally!! im not always right!! gl if u have a bet! |
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megastar will be the better horse in the long term but judging by his first run, he won't be able to cope with australias exuberance at the moment...basically , one knows the job already and the other one doesn't, clumsy and uncoordinated...by the time mega gets organised it will be all over.
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i would also consider a place lay of megastar if hes about the 1.2 mark to place! its a cheap lay so if he wins o places its not a big loss, i reckon hi tide has a good place chance!
i might take a chance on a dist bet with AD, think he could rout them if he jumps well and gets an easy lead(which i expect him to!! gl all |
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good move taking him out on the ground, connections knew he had no chance beating AD
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no surprise that withdraw
a good move in the long run for the horse |
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agreed! wouldnt have got within 20L of AD today
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do you have anything constructive to say ilikewavingatbuses, or do you just enjoy spouting the same cliched line over and over again.
very dissapointing, as i'm pretty confident that he would have run down A S in any case, just that connections are so cautious these days. needless to say that the big peddlers cross-al ferof match up is off as well, presumably al-ferof is being saved for cheltenham this weekend?! |
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i was spouting for your benefit MP, i thought it was glaringly obvious i was taking the p!ss!! good grief!
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what a horse
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you crap yourself there ilwab
 anyone else think megastar would have pissed all over that, why they take it out the rain came!  |
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i didnt even back him!!
just thought he'd win easily! still won on the bridle by a street which many horses wouldvt have been able to do after that! closes to falling without falling! he'd have still won |
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so even though you thought he'd win by a street you still didn't bet? do you actually bet at all? "head in hands man"
any A S backers have denis o regan to thank there, without his mastery he never would have won. megastar would have pissed all over that while getting a cigar out in the straight.  |
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he was 2/9 to jump around, i dont bet like that!
whats woth the personal insults? you obviously missed my 'ST NICHOLAS ABBEY TO ROUT THEM' thread not that i have anything to prove on this forum! it doesnt matter what megastar would or wouldnt have done, his connections knew the conditions of the race didnt suit him and he had little chance of beat AD, if they thought he'd win easy theyd have kept him in the race, hes run on faster ground and won ffs!! why are u seething? whats your problem? |
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well, everyone's entilted to their opinion, but this is a thread about how I like the horse megastar, and all you do is come on it and rip it out of the horse and say how the connections were right to pull it out because it had little chance of beating australia day. if you like australia day so much piss of and make you own thread about him, don't want you on mine.
either you are fishing, or trolling, or simply that you are an idiot. which one is anyone's guess. |
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all i did was give my opinion, why are u singling my posts out? these posters have pretty much said the same
pedrobob Joined: 27 Mar 06 Replies: 2911 07 Nov 11 18:36 if ground is good or faster and Australia Day jumps cleanly, no contest at this trip revedesivola Joined: 14 Sep 10 Replies: 12447 07 Nov 11 21:22 i think if ad jumps well, he wins why havent u commented about these u fooking @rse hole, dont fooking single out my WELL REASONED posts again or i will fooking hound u until u leave the forum!! gl u little pr!ck! |
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come on back mp.
im sorry ok!  |
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and the debate continues at Lingfield tomorrow.......
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Get this horse to Nicholls asap. What a waste.
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ground hog day
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