QE2 Betting Without Frankel

Always tricky markets these.

If Excellebration is ridden to finish second I have no doubt that is where he would finish, but that is not likely is it?

I personally cannot see RDLP being out of the first 4, 1/4 @ 12/1 is fair enough if you can lay the win at around 12/1 on here?

Which obviously is not possible

I've backed Botti's colt on the basis the going should be decent. Immortal Verse is a top,top class filly but her speed has been shown on Soft going in her last two runs. If she reproduces that on a better surface then she is some horse and is also relatively fresh, but hopefully she'll find it tougher against the Colts.

APOC makes a good point, only Immortal Verse & Excellebration will be ridden with the intention of winning, the other horses will be ridden with the intention of getting placed, so it is a dicey market.

Cityscape will only run if something happens to Frankel in the build-up.

I think I shall have a bash on Poets Voice ew at 14/1 also

what is the price on fresh air, i'd like some of that.

actually 16's available.

fresh air ? why have you cra-pped your pants again mp

http://bcove.me/qrjisfx2

Dick Turpin is being marked down for his run at Deauville , but he has 6 or 7 runs much better than that and his overall form should have him close to 2nd fav IMO

My take on these sort of races ie BIG MONEY RACES....

Look for the sneaky no hoper whose connections will instruct in the jockey to hold it up dead last out the back and just run past beaten horses in the final furlong for place prize money which is quite extreme in the case of the QEII and Champion Stakes.

Its not that hard to work out...some horses will try to chase Frankel for the win and fail and this is where a seemingly inferior horse can prosper.

good luck....CityScape looks nifty value on Queen Anne form.

The first 3 in the betting will fill the first 3 places,they are far superior,

ELG, Cityscape isn't running unless Frankel misses the race.

I think Poets Voice will return to form tbh and sneak into the first 4

The outcome very much hinges on what the ground is for me. If it rides very fast then as long as Spencer doesn't do
anything crazy on Excelebration he should come second. IV may not like it if its too fast. Of the others
I could see Side glance coming 3rd. He's a fast ground straight track specialist.
If they overwater and the ground starts shifting then I would favour IV to come second. His win in France
on soft was probably the most competitive European GRp 1 seen all season. He showed a liking for Ascot in june also. I'd be worried about Excelebration handling the shifting Ascot surface if they've over watered.SG could
also be discounted under these conditions. PV and Cityscope(if he runs) could run into third.
It's a shame that the ground isn't Good to soft or softer as I think IV could have given Frankel something to think about especially if it had been on the round track where Frankel looked very vulnerable back in June.

IV is a filly Tinkler.

And it still baffles me why people talk about Frankels ''below-par'' run at Royal Ascot like that is as good as he is. Can no one see what a shocking ride he was given that day ? Zoffany, who managed to finish second, has done absolutley nothing since that race, and it just goes to show how bad the ride was on Frankel for him to get so close.

'especially if it had been on the round track'

It is on the round track isn't it? I can't ever remember them running this on the straight mile or have they changed it this year?

It's the only slight chink in his whole career Sint so people who wish to oppose him will always point to it. As you say - totally irrelevant. On the same note and for the same reason it makes me laugh when people say Excelebration is getting closer to Frankel each time.

I think Tinkler is right about the ground for IV as SHE definitely would have preferred some cut. So often in the past the horses fancied to give Frankel most to do have been so blown away that they have failed to even finish in the first three so, if I was betting without Frankel I would look at some of the outsiders who may just be ridden to be placed and not to win. The Hannon pair probably fit the bill as well as anything. Two classy horses who have no chance of beating the wonderhorse but who are running so Mr Hannon can pick up some prize money for his trainers championship. With there likely to be at least 8 runners I think this is where the ew or betting without Frankel value could lie.

Straight track Rod. Decision made a few months ago.

thanks joni....'racing for change' at work again :)

betting without frankel:

10/11 fresh air
11-2 large expanse of grass
8-1 naked mythical prince
12-1 denman
16-1 bar

I must be the in the minority here in thinking Excelebration is going to give Frankel a real race this Saturday. Frankel may well come out on top again but Excelebration travelled nicely in behind him last time they met until Kirby got caught napping and Dubawi Gold took his ground away leaving too much ground to make up when it mattered and costing at least a length. Also looks to have improved since.
Won't be backing in the w/o market but 6/1 each way is in bet to nothing territory for me and quite pleased to now to find the bend won't be an issue.
Immortal Verse, Dick Turpin, Rio de la Plata and Cityscape all seem to need a bit of cut to show their best?

I'm with you in that minority, Rod, Excelebration is a vastly improved horse since Frankel last met him. I'll start by saying Frankel's Guineas performance was brilliant and is up with the very best I've seen, I'm not trying to underrate him at all but the fact is that an outstanding performance like that is only a few pounds better than a solid up to standard Gp 1 win, if you believed some of the hype you'd think he was lengths better than any horse that ever existed.

It was Excelebration's win in the Hungerford that convinced me he was top class, I thought it would turn out to be one of those runs that looked much better than it actually was, but I couldn't believe it when I compared the times, I hadn't expected him to improve as much as that. I backed him next time and he did it well but even though that was a Gp 1 I wasn't as impressed with him as in the Hungerford but I put that down to the bad conditions. It's actually a good thing that he won without having to run to his peak as he should remain quite fresh for Saturday.

Immortal Verse did me a big favour last time but much as I like her she's just not quite in the same class as Frankel and Excelebration. If Frankel can run to his Guineas form he wins, but if Excelebration runs to his best I think Frankel will need to run very close to that Guineas form again and I don't think that should be taken for granted at odds of 1/3. All this stuff about Frankel having 12lbs in hand of the field is greatly underestimating Excelebration's improvement, on my figures Excelebration is now only 3lbs behind, his price is too big and I've had a decent bet on him.

so i guess you wont be taking the 13/8 about Frankel winning by 3 and a half lengths or more figgs[;)]

Ha, not me, TFM, have you?

Absolutely not! not even backing Frankel at those prices,only had one bet on the race and thats a nice wedge on Excelebration in the market without Frankel,
Could not believe my eyes when i seen 2/1,Immortal Verse will need alot more than 3lbs to get near him and i think its massive value,could not have backed him outright as i think Franks will win and i can easily see him winning upto 5 lengths,but not interested in 1/3 or distance betting,specially when i'm getting this 2's on excel

Ex HAS improved Figg snd in any other year would be a champion. The problem is this is not a normal year and Frankel is not an ordinary horse.

The bad news for you is that Frankel has improved as well. He settles - that is no small thing. Look how easily he did it in the Sussex. Even if you believe the CC story he still beat RDLP by 8 lengths and Tom only let him go one and a half out!

It is not hype Figg. Frankel IS lengths better than anything else. He has proven it time and time again and will prove it again on Saturday..................IMO!

I fear people could be in for a shock come Saturday afternoon, i hope not, but i fear it. Too many of these 'good things' have been beaten in this race and races like it at the back end of the season too many times down the years for me to be so sure!!

Surely the only bet to play here is to back the field e/w at the likely 1/4 odds 1-2-3 your likely to get on the day at best prices with b.o.g? Therefore ok if IM and EXC fill the 2nd and 3rd spots behind frankel you will only take a small hit but if (and which often happens in these cos the 2nd and 3rd fav's are often ridden to try and win) 2 outsiders at 20/1+ fill the minors, you will make small profit.

I think Frankel is lenghts better than the rest aswell which is why the market w/o is appealing. Excellebration is top notch in how own right though and will hopegully shade Immortal Verse on account of the better going.

Figgis... before you bankrupt yourself, would you care to watch the sussex stakes again?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iicnjw_U6Qc

I, for one, WILL be backing excelebration PLACE ONLY - I think that's pretty much a certainty... but IMVHO you are clutching at straws to see him turning the Fav over, bar an act of God or TQ taking the wrong course!  Excel is a VERY good horse and will be a fab animal next year - I reckon he might make up into a 128-130 animal and eclipse anything CC did... but he ain't no Frankel...

jonibake Joined: 18 Nov 10
Replies: 302 13 Oct 11 08:45   


Ex HAS improved Figg snd in any other year would be a champion. The problem is this is not a normal year and Frankel is not an ordinary horse.

The bad news for you is that Frankel has improved as well. He settles - that is no small thing. Look how easily he did it in the Sussex. Even if you believe the CC story he still beat RDLP by 8 lengths and Tom only let him go one and a half out!

It is not hype Figg. Frankel IS lengths better than anything else. He has proven it time and time again and will prove it again on Saturday..................IMO!

Jonibake, he proved he was 6 lengths better than Dubawi Gold, by my reckoning the Excelebration of now would've beaten him by 5 lengths that day. Yes he was very impressive against Canford Cliffs, CC was a very good horse but still a little bit overrated imo, I've seen better milers in the last few years. Nevertheless, I have absolutely no doubt that CC ran below form that day. That takes nothing away from Frankel, it was still a very good performance but, for me, it wasn't as impressive as his Guineas win, he had it easy in front and the time wasn't as good as the Guineas. I would be very very surprised if Frankel can improve on his Guineas form, I've been following racing for over 25 years and for most of those I've studied race times, what Frankel achieved in the Guineas was close to the optimum ability of the racehorse. If he does improve on that he will truly be a freak, but I've yet to see one.

Of course, he doesn't need to improve on his Guineas form, a repeat of that (not necessarily in the same style) will be good enough, but at the odds available I'm more than happy to back Excelebration.

Totally respect your opinion Figg and you are a great judge but not sure how you can doubt the Sussex run. The time was not massively quick overall because they dawdled the first furlong as TQ waited to see if anything would give him a lead.

He gradually quickened things from the front and those last four furlongs had clockwatchers gasping. Love him or hate him, Nick Mordin who lives and breathes the clock was blown away by it. You can remove CC from the race and it was still spectacular.

As we all know Figg, the way the Guineas was run made the literal reading of the form very difficult. It is true that DG got within 6 lengths but he was one of the few that didnt try and go that early gallop. When he DID try and follow Frankel in the St James he was beaten a lot further.

You say you think EX would have beaten DG by about 5 lengths that day and I probably agree with you - if Frankel hadnt been in the field - but may I ask you this: how far do you think Frankel would have won the Hungerford by?

If you listen to connections Frankel has improved A LOT since Newmarket but I don't think just physically, mentally as well. He relaxes much more in his work and his races. This is massive because it means they never have to repeat those Guineas/St James tactics again and have him hanging on in the last furlong but rather utilise that change of gear and enormous stride at the crucial part of the race.

I repeat Excelebration is a wonderful horse but can he cover the ground like Frankel? Can he sprint for 4 furlongs like Frankel? I don't think so.

Best of luck with your bet anyway and we'll soon see who is right!

Jonibake, I'm not saying Excelebration should be favourite or anything like that, obviously Frankel has the better form and is a worthy, albeit too short, favourite. What I'm saying is Excelebration's chance is much better than his odds, as he's now closer to Frankel than he's being given credit for, plus a chunk of the market is taken up by Immortal Verse, who in my view isn't good enough.

If frankel and his pacemaker were removed from this race and didn't take part then it would be a big surprise
if Excelebration(assuming its fast) didn't win. He has improved a lot physically since he encountered Frankel
in the greenham. I doubt Frankel has improved as much as he looked like a 3 y/o when he was 2. Horses have a
pecking order though and aren't machines, Frankel has a distinct class edge on Excelebration and I cann't see
any angle that Frankel could get beat on except a dislike like of the Ascot straight track surface or an injury.  Where Queally positions Frankel in the race could have a big impact in what comes second. Side glance
and Exclerbration are likely to sit in prominent postions behind the pacemaker if Frankel mixes it with these
2 and runs along side EXcel he could break him. If Queally postions Frankel at the back then it should leave
Excel to run unpressured into second. Is there enough juice in the 2/1 Excel betting without, probably yes imo.