is the arc the most overrated horse race in the world?

what flat races do you like?

good question.. the flat isn't comparable with the jumps anyway. looking forward to the qe2 but maybe just because of frankel. hard to think of a flat race that really gets the blood flowing.. the 2000 guineas perhaps?

I've said for a while that I think the Arc is hyped up beyond the quality of most of the actual runnings of the race. Many runners just don't run up to their previous best form and the winner is often the horse that either has the most suitable campaign or a late season improver. Even a great winner like Sea The Stars, exciting though it was to watch, had put up better performances earlier. That said, I think this year's winner was the best run by a middle distance 3yo all season.

As for the Derby, it is still probably my favourite betting race, no worries about horses going over the top etc, and despite all the criticism I reckon in most years it's still the race that shows us the best 3yo colt.

The Derby is still the most exciting race of the year for me. I have never liked Longchamp as a track - huge draw bias with it being on the turn most of the way and then the inevitable traffic problems in the straight followed by the vagaries of the French stewards. This years race was actually pretty clean for a change but the draw and pace bias was very evident.

The way the Arc has become so dominant over the last 10 years or so is also detrimental to the rest of the flat season as many of the top middle distance races now struggle to attract decent fields - The King George and Eclipse especially.

As regards unsuitable courses for TOP races, I place EPSOM 1st and Goodwood 2nd, Dubai millenium lost only one race in his career and that was the DERBY.
I would expect that there are many more examples, but I'm not fussed enough to bother looking for them, suffice it to say a bad run at Epsom or Goodwood is overlooked by me.

dancing brave.

The Arc has more often than not been the European race of the year in terms of quality but yesterday was the most unsatisfactory result in terms of form I can remember. I think the size of the field, effect of the draw and going contributed to this.

I've always felt that 15+ size fields around turns are liable to produce problems. I refuse to believe the likes of Sarafina and Galikova would've finished behind Shareta in a smaller field. Galikova was 3-0 head to head this season against her.

While Danedream is clearly a vast improver, I would seriously question the manner of her victory as a true reflection of form.

The thing with the Arc you often find from time to time some horses improve past others becoming more mature over the course of the season, how many times have we seen horses kept in training as 4 and 5 year olds improve beyond all recognition?, two that spring to mind are Pilsudski and Pride there are many more.
Having said that if you look at the list of winners of the Arc there are a few shock results like any other race but most of the winners are usually at the top of the market.
Shock of horrors a german trained supposed outsider wins the Arc and all of a sudden some are knocking the best test of a thoroughbred this side of the Atlantic ocean, the Arc will for this individual remain the greatest race of the season where the best of the 3yo crop meets the best of the older brigade.
The Derby is a great race but its restricted to 3yo's, when a Derby winner triumphs in the Arc its usually a sign of true greatness.

Danedream seems to be improving at a rate of knots so it will be a shame if connections are tempted by the lure of a lucrative stud career, here's one who believes she could be even better next year and don't believe for one second her victory was a fluke.

I totally agree that much of the opposition ran below par yesterday and they certainly would've beaten Shareta if they'd showed their true form, but I still believe Danedream put up a top class performance, for a 3yo filly that is.

When there is a wide margin winner in a Gp 1 it's usually a combination of a top class performance and either the rest of the field not being up to standard, obviously not the case here, or the main opposition running below form, which is what happened yesterday. The same happened with Harbinger in last year's King George, it was a top notch effort but also the others ran below their best. Even Frankel's Guineas win, I rate it highly but the other 3yos were a poor lot.

Silvergreaser, I agree that the Arc winner is usually a very good horse and one fancied by the market, but in many of the runnings a lot of the other fancied, good opposition don't run up to par.

One great performance doesn't make a great horse.

But it is performances that are rated, not the consistency, durability, versatility, longevity, etc, of a horse.

It depends I suppose what you define as a great horse. To me a great horse is one that puts together a series
of great performances like Dancing Brave and Sea the Stars . To me Danedream put in an excellent performance
yesterday but to prove herself a great she's going to have to do it more than once.
Hawk wings performance in the lockinge was a great performance but he couldn't back it up thus he was capable
of a great performance but was no great horse.

Tinkler, I agree. If I was judging STS purely on the value of his performances, good though they were, I've seen better, but for me he was a great horse because of those other qualities I mentioned. Even so, I think the waters are muddied when judging horses that get packed off to stud at 3. Would they have remained at the top when having to give wfa instead of receiving it? Would they have remained sound anyway? All things considered, I believe it's better to judge performances, we can still hold personal views on the overall merit of the horse.

Agree Tinkler racing is littered with horses who put in one great performance that turned out to be flattering in the extreme.
We'll never know if Harbingers King George cakewalk flattered him?.
But I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Danedream her previous two Group one wins in Germany might not have been the most competitive of races on paper but she won them by 6L and 5L one on very soft ground which suggests she's versatile as regards ground conditions then followed that up with a 5L Arc romp against top notch opponents, a combined total of 16L, not bad eh?, that they supplemented her for such a competitive race says a lot about connections confidence in her ability to cut it with the best.

I'd say connections will be inundated with lucrative offers so it will be interesting to see if they are brave enough to fight them off and keep her in training for another year?.

I can't see any sense in retiring her - she is a very averagely bred cheaply bought horse so even if they sell each foal they are unlikely to get mega bucks for them. The chances are she will not produce anything half as good as she is.

Instead, like with Snow Fairy, Goldikova, Pride etc they can race for another couple of seasons and, if she can stay sound and hold her form, then they can go globe trotting and win many millions.

Good point unclepuncle, here's one who would love to see her race on to see if it was a really a fluke but all the evidence suggests otherwise she seems to be improving at a rate of knots.

no fluke winner very good horse,race ran in a fast time by
all accounts.As for last years Arc form it may not be worth a
carrot,1st 3 all unsighted this time.

A lot on this thread seem to be knocking an excellent filly, FIGGIS most of the field ran below form, what a load of carp, you are a figures man  so how would you rate her on her last 2 German runs? Because I guessed that she was in the middle to high 120s, SCALO rated at 120 5 lengths behind, NIGHT MAGIC rated at 117 6 lengths behind, first race on good going and second race on very soft (actually it looked heavy to me), give me your assessment for those 2 races and your assessment now, because TIMEFORM rate her 132+.

i cant understand the knocking of the race tbh.I think the problem maybe with so many runners that false straight causes havoc.Love the race,but then again i'm a Dancing Brave groupie.

Bazzar, actually I haven't a single clue what you're on about. I have already said I rate her up with the best 3yo middle distance fillies. However, if you think Shareta would've finished ahead of SYT, Workforce, Galikova, Reliable Man etc in their earlier Gp 1 races, you're deluded, imo.

"is the arc the most overrated horse race in the world?"

Quite fitting IMO the most overrated trainer in the world should have so many horses in it.

But more than half of them did NOT run below form, maybe SHARETA is better than was postulated, o deluded one.

Prize money is astonishing £2 million to the winner no wonder other races struggle to compete.

Bazzar, maybe, and maybe Silver Pond is only a few pounds short of the best Europe has to offer?

Sorry to interrupt this discussion guys,
But surely the arc 2011 must prove once and for all that giving fit G1 3yo fillies 11 lbs weight for age over older horses is absolutely bonkers
Especially at this time of year
In the Breeders cup, not sure, but think the yanks would give them 6, which is much fairer

^^^^^^^ agree, weight for age iss too much, they are nearly 4yo's in october.

winner was good on the day but take wf for example , he ran nowhere near his form, many struggled to get in to it!! syt did well coming from neigh on last!

i wouldnt be in a hurry to back the winner against these again tho, race just fell apart and none could get a look in, v strange but she still put up a top class performace no doubt about it!

Imo Aiden fcuked the race up. You can't run a horse like Treasure Beach as a pacemaker he's far too good. A lot of horses just failed to get into the race because as they tried to find themselves a position the race was already getting away from them. Nothing taken away from Danebream's run though. Huge run off that pace.

Back on topic if you don't enjoy the Derby or The Arc I'm not sure what you can enjoy in the world of racing..

MP

is the arc the most overrated horse race in the world?



The best trainers in Europe regard the Arc as the best 12f turf race in Europe and that probably means the world therefore given the lack of turf racing in the US. It attracts the best middle distance horses (only 3/4 out of this years field hadn't won a G1 ).It has been won by most of the best ever horses racing over middle distance. The biggest owners  aspire to win the race as do the biggest breeders.

o, to answer your question, I really do not see how the race can be described as "over-rated!

Sandown

But how many of those trainers/connections, apart from the French, specifically target their horses at the race?

The point I was really trying to make though sandown, was that not that the quality of the race is in any way poor, just that as a spectacle I find it lacking.

perhaps its the short home straight (although not being a great expert on these things, i'm quite happy for someone to contradict me and say it's a long home straight) that doesn't seem to lead to particularly great finishes, or perhaps its the camera angles, or perhaps i'm just talking bollox, but I can probably name 20 flat group races off the top of my head that I prefer watching to the arc.

Having said that there have been some exciting races- dancing brave, sea the stars and hellisio spring to mind.

MP
as a spectacle I find it lacking.

An entirely subjective comment and may be different therefore for different individuals. Not as spectacular as the grand nat obviously but imo it compares well with any other top flat race. I have been numerous times and for me it beats any other race incuding the BC.

Figgis

But how many of those trainers/connections, apart from the French, specifically target their horses at the race?

Not sure that criterion is meaningful imo;even so, without asking every trainer personally how would you know how it compares, now and in the past?

Sandown

I think it's fairly obvious that very few non French runners are specifically targetted at the race, given trainers comments, supplementations and, most importantly, their campaigns leading up to the race.

What I'm saying is yes, very a good horse usually wins the race, given that many of the runners are in the top bracket that's hardly a surprise. Nevertheless, a great many fancied runners, horses which are perfectly entitled to at least finish close up, simply don't run up to their best form but this just gets overlooked. The fact that Youmzain, who was a good horse and an admirable campaigner but let's be honest, just below top class (he never ran a proper Gp 1 figure in all his years), managed to finish 2nd three years in succession is quite telling.

This is no fault of the race itself of course, it has to be expected in an end of year event where many of the best horses have already had a busy season and hard races, but it should be acknowledged that just because the race has a quality lineup the actual quality of the race itself doesn't always live up to the billing.

Hopefully danedream will race on and will find out ,to some extend, as to whether she really is a wonder filly
or if everything conspired in her favour on Sunday and the result flattered her.
I think next year she will struggle when asked to carry more weight and if she was mine I'd be running
her in the far east races Snow fairy contested last year. Again she'll only have to carry middle 8 stone weights,which is ideal as there is not much of her, although the others won't be carrying weights higher
than 9 stone. Snow Fairy benefited from it last year and this filly probably would so.

I seriously doubt the strong support of the Arc from British trainers is one huge combination of afterthoughts tbh. Crazy theory.

If there is anything that deserves a slagging, then it is the jockeys who ride mainly in Britain, pricewise had a go about the Cambridgeshire,
where not one jockey tried to run down the middle of the track everyone of them congregated to the near rail, Dettori met with interference about 3 times, he has been doing stupid things like that most of this season.

Figgis

You are entitled to your opinion but I don't share it. If you look at the history of the race in the post war period there is not a race to compare as the KG has declined in importance, so the Arc has grown in importance and it is now generally regarded as the 12f turf race to target around the world. Whether British or irish trainers target the race or not doesn't matter one jot. I seem to recall that vincent O'brien rated it pretty highly as does Fabre, the two most talented flat trainers in Europe since the war.

If you look at the make up of the other all aged Group 1 middle distance contests throughout the year then you will understand why sometimes the Arc throws a result that seems out of kilter.

Far more runners with a early pace that is sometimes a lot harder than the form that has been on offer throughout the year at the end of a season.

Dont think its overrated, just a different test of a animal that has, for the most, been running in different circumstances for 75-90% of its career

Well Fabre is obviously French so I don't see how that has any relevance to what I said. As for V O'Brien, with the exception of Alleged it appears as though the race was still largely an afterthought in his plans, unless you think that those other great horses he trained weren't good enough?

As I've said, I'm not crabbing many of the winners who were worthy champions, but I think it's acknowledged that some such STS and Dylan Thomas had put up better performances beforehand. Going back further than Youmzain, when Hurricane Run won the second horse was the 6yo Westerner, when Bago won he beat Cherry Mix and O'Brien's 100/1 Acropolis was a close 4th, not exactly brilliant form.

Zil, but in most years the Arc doesn't throw up a higher speed figure than some Gp 1s over here or in Ireland, so I can't have the pace of the race as an excuse. The main thing is the campaign. A trainer like Fabre knows the importance of giving his best prospects a midsummer break. We don't tend to do that, of course it doesn't mean that a horse can't overcome a busy campaign to win the race, some have, but it still remains a big advantage when a trainer has the race as his main aim.

Fig you should know that a faster early pace doesnt always lead to a top speed figure(esp when they ignore the pacemakers) its the size of the field thats different to most all aged group 1 middle distance form, how many times have we seen double figure fields in the Eclipse, POW,Coronation Cup, Irish Champion, Grand Prix de Paris, King George, International???

Zil, yes I know that, but in the STS and Zarkava races, for example, it was pretty obvious there was no pace, they didn't go very fast last year either.

Zil, there has to be more to it than the size of the field though. Duke of Marmalade ran below form, I know some people said he wasn't a very good Gp 1 winner but he was definitely better than some who finished in front of him. Reference Point and Generous bombed out. I know I've picked some high profile examples but if you go through most runnings of the race you will find some ordinary-ish horses finishing close up and some good ones not even in the mix.

We've done better since the introduction of the Breeders Cup though, obv more horses given a summer break, when was the last time the Derby winner won the King George(Galileo??) half of them dont even try, what it has done is made the midsummer racing a lot poorer(Eclipse,King George, International) and except for a few horses they are now poorer contests than in the last century

Alleged apart i cant remember any other Leger runner winning, Ref Point was never given a moments peace by a pacemaker in 87

I backed SUN PRINCESS to win the LEGER, but backed against her in ARC in the belief that the leger would have too much out of her.

Zil, yes, I agree British trainers are a bit more mindful than they used to be of keeping a horse fresh for the Arc now, although I wonder if Workforce's campaign last year was more accident than design? Might've been different if he'd performed well in the KG. I still think the race is usually an afterthought for O'Brien, whereas it seems to figure more in Oxx's plans when he has one good enough.

Just looking at how the favourites performed in the previous 10 years, 1335500114, STS, Zarkava and Sakhee (even I backed that one )being the winning favs. Are the betting public really that wide of the mark about finding the horse with the best form in a race where the runners are seemingly exposed?

Mmm, there wasnt much between some of them though, Dalakhani was 9/4 second fav, Hurricane run was 11/4 second fav and Dylan Thomas was second fav at around 11-2, Bago was 10-1 and Rail Link was around 8s

so 3 favs and 3 second favs

Yes, there are usually about 5 or 6 horses priced under 10/1 in an average year and as you'd expect the winner usually falls to one of them rather than a rank outsider. My point is that in many years a lot of the other fancied horses just don't perform to their best. I accept that sometimes the public have it completely wrong and fancy an overrated horse but there are many others with obviously strong chances of at least running close that can't get past exposed inferior animals and some bomb out completely. As I've said, the winner is usually a good horse but often the form behind isn't as good as the lineup suggests.

im sure these were uk industry sp as well, deep impact was 9/4 in the post, im sure it was odds on there

Youmzain is a crap horse? just because he had the audacity to finish runner up 3 years in a row the Arc is a piece of ****?

Maybe connections deliberately kept the horse for that race and unfortunately ended up meeting a superstar or two?

Figgis

I think you have a bee in your bonnet about the Arc and you are looking for reasons to back up that opinion whether they hold water or not.

What have you used so far? That the non-French trainers don't target the race? That favourites don't win a high proportion? That the form often doesn't hold up? (If it doesn't- and I'm not conceding that point - itwouldn't be surprising as the race takes a lot of winning, it comes at the back-end and many horses may take months to recover.)

As for favs not winning enough, I would challenge that over a large period inasmuch aqs the proportion winning from the front end of the market would not be out of expectations.

The race yesterday was a function of very fast ground (not necessarily firm) which was not what most of the ratings were based on, misjudgement of pace by senior jockeys who probably thought that the hares would come back to them,and an improving filly neglected by the majority because of the difficulty of assessing the form. Suprises happen all the time and i don't think that the Arc is more prone to them.

Finally, you have to make a comparison with other races. What would you rank more highly as a middle distance race than the Arc as a championship race?

Sandown

I have no problem at all with the Arc, I actually enjoy watching the race, even though in many years I only have a small bet or none at all, the last large bet I had on the race was Sakhee 10 years ago. As I've said many times, but I'll repeat it again for the hard of reading, the winner is often a very good horse, sometimes even a great one. What I disagree with is the belief that just because the race contains multiple group 1 winners then the winner must've somehow showed a level of form higher than any of the other contenders have achieved throughout the year.

Zil, when you picked picked Sea Moon in the Voltigeur, one of your main reasons was that he was a fresher horse than some of the others. I entirely agree with your thinking, that is a factor in any race during the latter part of the season and the Arc is no different.

TBH, The Arc's not one of my top races i bet on(its not a Handicap) and i thought tht 20s Snow Fairy was good value for a Autumn Filly who likes big fields, but i wouldnt have a bet in the race every year(and i cant remember the last time i backed the fav in the race, Alleged in 77 at 7/2 maybe)

Mind you i havent backed the winner of the race since 88

Yep, you do want a fresh horse imo and still i didnt fancy all of the front 4 so i got that right

a bigger bet on decent ground will be Mount Athos on sat, even with top weight, if ge goes as they could still pull him out

Wouldn't say there is a better race.

You can still argue it was overated though, in that it is seen as the be all and all of middle distance racing by many.

A high proportion of Group 1 winners run too bad to be true in it .Which could be used in The Arc's favour ( a true test/ finds out their flaws etc) but seems likely that it just down to it being late in the season.   It is an afterthought for UK/Irish trainers, in the sense that they don't start to seriously think about it until their horse has run in it's summer targets and made it into September still in one piece.

Sandown

I'm not trying to give any other race higher status over the Arc, but as you ask, apart from a couple of exceptional recent winners in STS and Zarkava I reckon the KG compares well, the likes of Harbinger, Duke of Marmalade, Alamshar, Galileo don't look too shabby compared to Bago, Marienbard, Dalakhani and Rail Link.

Figgis how many horses get better when they're older?

Seems a bit of an abstract question, can you be more specific? Not that I'm sure I could give a specific answer to that type of question anyway.

People often knock the arc because their Derby or Oaks hero didn't quite cut the mustard, Nashwan never ran in the arc after been stuffed in his trial, Salsabil was stuffed, generous? well lets just say we all knew Sauve Dancer was a better horse.

It's not easy to be the Champion of Europe and you only get one shot a year. That is why the Arc is such a difficult race to win and many top class horses fail. Many have not run well in the race I will agree with that but it truly is the toughest test of the year for any horse. Not sure about this fresh horse idea. The French also have there own Guineas, Oaks/Derby, GP De Paris, Arc Trials etc. It's not like they all go there totally fresh.. And just to point out have you seen how many times Danedream & Shareta have run this season!? The idea is flawed about tired horses.

The French also have there own Guineas, Oaks/Derby, GP De Paris, Arc Trials etc. It's not like they all go there totally fresh.

They do have their equivalents of the Classic Races but what they don't have is any sort of All Age Middle Distance Programme.

UK /Ireland have..

Eclipse
King George
York International
Irish Champion

Any British/ Irish middle distance horse that does not run in any of those will be seen to have avoided them and be marked down accordingly .

The French have no Summer Races of that prestige at the distance. And their is even the English Champion after The Arc.
ec

Masterminded, but the French usually prefer to give their best horses a break before the trials, which are normally nothing more than slowly run preps (not this year though). Surely that would be foolish if they could easily pick up another big race without doing their Arc prospects any harm? I've already said it's not impossible for a horse to have a busy campaign and still win, STS wasn't exactly wrapped in cotton wool and neither was Dylan Thomas. Some horses are exceptional or exceptionally tough. Generally though it helps if a horse is primed for a particular race.

As for Danedream, she was an improving 3yo filly and with hindsight (some more clued up punters had the foresight) had more to come, but I believe it's difficult for an older horse to remain at the top of its game when its been having hard races in group 1s throughout the year.

Just to clarify, for me Danedream put up the best performance by a middle distance 3yo this year and even if the older horses had run to their best they would've had no chance of beating her at the weights. However, in no way do I believe that Shareta showed better form there than SYT, Galikova, Workforce etc had shown previously. If people want to believe she did that's up to them. Goodnight

Just one more thing. It seems Simon Rowlands of Timeform has a not too dissimilar opinion to mine on this year's Arc and previous ones, albeit his views are put more eloquently.

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/events/handicappers-corner-danedream-deserves-all-the-arc-plau-031011.html

NASHWAN was a poor example of a horse being beaten and not even getting to the ARC, his first 4 races were, 2000 guineas, Derby, Eclipse and King George, all within the space of 76 (seventy six)days,
an average of a group one every 18.75 days.

silvergreaser 03 Oct 11 19:34   

Generous? well lets just say we all knew Sauve Dancer was a better horse.


Half the field were better then Generous on Arc day. But at the Curragh they were both at their best Generous saw off Suave Dancer making virtually all his own running. Fantastic horse.

with regards the notion that certain horses underperformed in the Arc; that's obviously so but in a race with c.13 Group 1 winners in it, AT LEAST half of those will be deemed to have underperformed whatever the result.

They're hardly going to finish ten abreast are they?

Figgis

I am totally with you. Danedream stayed quite cose to a fast pace and then quickened very well off that pace winning with something in hand by 5 lengths.

I am of the view personally that if she met the whole field again on fast ground she would be very likely indeed to confirm the form. She is a very high class filly indeed.

You would have a case to argue that it was some sort of fluke, if the pace of the race had been slow and the hold up horses had been trying to make ground off a slow pace against quickening leaders. However it was a record time, and Danedream seemed to me to be taking more ground from So You Think and Sarafina and the other fancied horses in the last furlong.

Some like Workforce and the two Japanese never ran to their best. I suspect both Sarafina and So You Think were just shown to be about as good as they probably are.

Danedream seems to me to be the best middle distance horse in training. with her 3 lb fillies allowance she would be virtually unbeatable by anything other than a great horse over 12 furlongs.

Cryoftruth

What do you think her prospects are as a 4yo? In my years of following racing very very few good 3yo fillies kept in training have improved in line with the wfa scale. This gives them a disadvantage, or negates the advantage they used to have, depending on how you view it. I agree that even if she just stays as she is she will still be very competitive at the heighest level with her 3lbs allowance, but without improvement it will be tough for her against the colts.

Whatever happens, I don't agree when some people say if she doesn't repeat that kind of performance then it must've been a fluke. It was a well run race and despite some of the 'form' horses running below their best to some degree there is no question it was a quality performance. It happened, there was nothing flukey about it. It's what she was capable of at that moment of her career and whether she repeats it or not shouldn't alter that.

* highest

The disappointment for me with the Arc is how often very good British and Irish horses seem to underperform in the race. Thinking of Generous, St Jovite, Authorized - horses who were exceptional for a couple of months but had gone over the top come October. Guess that's how we know what the truly outstanding horses are who can produce the goods more than just a couple of times: Mill Reef, Dancing Brave, Sea the Stars.

Figgis

I am personally not of the view that there is that much wrong with the w.f.a. scale. Perhaps a pound or 3 but not much more.

Danedream is better now she has reached the end of her 3yo career than at any time before.

Okay few top class 4yo fillies get the chance to strut their stuff at 4, but I recall watching Indian Skimmer at 4 and she was on her day just brilliant. Allez France wasn't to bad, and Tryptych won the Coronation Cup when she was about 6 years old.

Time Charter won the King George at 4 from a really high class field and Goldikova has hardly been a donkey since she turned 4 I would say!

Ouija Board in more recent times seemed to thrash 3yo's pretty regularly, and Midday since she was 4 has twice done the apparently impossible by making Snow Fairy look a second rater, the first time quite unforgettably in the Yorkshire Oaks, when she was fabulous.

Since Danedream won the Arc by about 9 lbs, including ease of victory, I see no reason at all why she should not be a very good 4yo indeed. I think because she is a German and because she would be tarred for a while by the "clever" maybe too clever race readers as a lucky Arc winner she would be worthy of support next year for the same race. After all she acts on any going and the sire does seem to get horses that improve with age.

PETITE ETOILE was a brilliant dual clssic winner and raced on until 5
I remember, usually finishing off the opposition with her speed, it is my belief that Lester thought her unbeatable and rode a very complacent race to be beaten by Aggressor, he ALWAYS learned from his mistakes and NEVER repeated that error.
There have been numerous others and no doubt I will remember more, just remembered another, GLADNESS who carried top weight to victory in the EBOR plus many group races to add.

I'll personally be amazed if danedream gets anywhere near that kind of form again.

I wouldn't read too much into her breaking the track record either- the ground was like a road after one of the hottest septembers on record, and they went an incredible pace up front. If they didn't break the record there must have been something wrong.

hardly any horses even got put in the race with any chance and i'd put a line through the race. put it down as yet another dissapointing arc.

Cryoftruth

Fair argument. They were all very good older fillies/mares who could compete with the colts. I still think such fillies are few and far between though. We'll just have to wait and see.

Figgis

On my timings the official time is 0.7 secs too fast.I make the race handtimed  at 2.25.2 allowing 0.4 sec for reaction delay. Would you care to double check? It's not critical, and doesn't change the merit of the performance too much, but for the sake of accuracy we should know. also, when races are run this fast the weight per second allowance needs to be greater than average. I'm rating the performance at 120 but projecting to 131 by the way.

Sandown

I got 0.8 too fast but your timing is probably more accurate than mine, as I was just using a stop watch against the video, which I know isn't a very precise method. To be honest when I've tried comparing hand times to French official times in the past I nearly always found their times faster than mine. I always wondered if they begin their timing slightly after the gates are opened? Out of interest, how have you found the other times on the card compare? Just having a quick look at the Dream Ahead video that time also looks slightly too fast.

Hello everyone,

The answer to the question which started this thread is a simple NO!

Its a bit of a silly question, it doesnt actually make any sense because there are imitigating factors that justify it being as highly rated as it is , and the main one being the distance.

The question your asking has to be more specific, if it is meant that is it overrated because of the style of the race? then the answer has to be No, if you just look at the record of the race within the last 10 years you will see that it has always been won by the best horse across Europe at that time.

Secondly , it has to be one of the highest rated races because the stakes are so high , winning the Arc is one of the highest rated races and it proves to be the flag bearer for breeders as a prestigious prize and continues to be the pinacle for middle distance horses, hence why Sea the Stars had taken part in the race after its long season and hence why the Japanese try and contest the race every year to boost their breeding values for staying horses, its actually a good point there about the Japanese failing to win the race within their efforts within the last few years, they have some of the best horses but still fail to have that speed and stamina breed which is where the value is...hence being the race highly rated!


The other group 1's or Grade 1's around the world are split by different rating systems and conditions and need to be rated so, for eg.

America: firstly you can take 90% of their grade 1's out of the the question because its quite easy to see that a Grade 1 in Canada and the Usa can easily be won by a group 2 horse across europe. What i mean here is that an English/European trainer can take a Group 3 winner or a Group 2 winner across the pond and completley justify competing in a Grade 1 , its happened so many times , here are just a few examples within the last few years that won grade 1's but couldnt win group 1's across europe.( so you can definitly say they are overrated.

1.Debussy winning the Grade 1 Arlington Million against Gio ponti
2.Joshua Tree winning the Grade 1 Canadian International last year
3.Wigmore Hall in the woodbine mile grade 1 .



There is an exemptions being the breeders cup turf as a 1m4f race, however, its quite easy to come to the conclusion that running in these races cannot be compared to a tradional Arc where the competition is much stiffer , I'm certain that if you asked any American jockey or breeder what race would you prefer to win? " A breeders cup classic or turf or an Arc? " 90% of them would say the Arc. so in that sense its not overrated.


Now Europe is easily explained, they all look at the Arc as the pinnacle, the derby is no way near in the league of the Arc, now i know you are going to shout about workforce , however , he was exceptional compared to the rest of the horses that contest that race now, it used to be a highly sort after prize ...and it is in terms of the other group 1's on the uk calendar, but its no way near the competition and class of a horse that can be expected to win the Arc. Its actually change quite alot within the last 10 years since sindaar and the likes of Fantastic light and high chapperal, IMO its not as highly contested by the genuine classier horses now. I think thats been proven since Sir Percy won it.


To finish,

i can only see a 1 other race around the world being rated better in the future...or even on par at the moment and that's the Japan Cup,  it will be interesting to see if alot more horses from europe get invited in next 5 years to compete as i think it could turn out to be one of the richest races in the world and highly contested, its a very big galloping track and its going to be interesting to see some of what are supposed to be our best european horses taking part....its actually interesting the europeans hardly ever go over to contest it within the last 5 years ...maybe its actually a better race than we think! Or it could be the case the the uk/french/irish trainer find it harder to read the form of the Japanese horses's chances.

but if you look at how the Japanese runners Victoire pisa and Transcend ran in the race Japan Cup 2010...then go on to be 1st and second in the Dubai world cup does point out that its possibly becoming on par with the Arc


so after all that ...the Arc is in the top 4 races in the world, so no way near the being overrated

I think Mythical Prince was being provocatively tongue-in-cheek with the title of the thread. Basically he was implying it's not the be all and end all of flat racing, in Tobermory's words. As Timeform have remarked " Some great horses have won the Arc, but unambiguously great performances in the race itself are not that frequent".

of the next six home behind Danedream separated by just over a length, only So You Think didn't put up a seasonal best timefigure (unless all the French race times from the card are wrong as suggested by Figgis etc)

Hence surprised to read that a few think plenty ran below form.

Think the winner must be one of the best fillies we have seen in years, possibly including the majestic Zarkava

Clive Brittain won the Japan Cup many years ago, Rozelkid.
Have you bothered to find out at what age a horse reaches MARE and STALLION status.
Mythical I will have a bet with you that DANEDREAM WILL equal the standard of her ARC win although not a course record and I believe we will not have to wait long, Shadai have a half share and will try to talk the other half to running her there.
How much would she have had to do to prove that she is NOT good NOT even VERY GOOD, but EXCELLENT, she beats seasoned group horses in 2 group ones, one rated in the international classification @120, by 5 lengths, the other rated @117 in the same classification by 6 lengths, on different going descriptions, but you never spotted the clues, your problem, not DANEDREAMS.

yeah maybe I was being a little bit over the top by saying she won't reproduce, but then it wouldn't exactly surprise me... you see plenty of arc winners that look incredible on the day but fail to go on the next season (hellisio springs to mind, for one.)

This little filly does not fit any pattern, this could be construed as aftertiming, but I first bet her on 7th September and followed up at other times after a win on here, the only criteria I used what would I do if she were mine, using the good old greed factor, hence my bets.
Look at her conformation and size, she could be described as a floater,
that is why she can cope with extremes better than the bigger horses,
whenever a filly is good then she can beat colts and geldings regularly and consistently, you don't have to believe me study some of the top fillies and mares, she dosen't know she is German and we are told that the present thoroughbred trace back to just three stallions, so really we should not be surprised at what is thrown up, I remember a sprinter producing stayers at stud recently OASIS DREAM regularly sires stayers as well as sprinters.

Bazzar,

I was referring to the past 7 years with how the race has got better , from after when alkasaad won it.

Its always been my understanding any female horse up whilst be a 3 yo is a filly until they reach the age of four. At four years old, they are then referred to as a stallion (male) or a mare (female).


However, after i've looked into it further and there seems to be different takes on it depending where you are from, in some countries, in horse racing, fillies are described as any female horse under the age of 5.


but the majority is of info i've seen on wiki and other areas,and from what i thought was right is that a mare is a female horse that is older than the age of 3.

But then again , im seeingthat some are stating that its a horse that has become 5yo, can anyone clarify this ?

[smiley:crazy]

questioing myself now.

Agree with the danedream comments, to for everyone to see, look at the replay of the Ard when it gets to the 200 metre Mark, the way the Filly changes it legs!

Wow! what sight , cruising around the course for 2200 metres then Starke has to wake her up.

what a classy animal!

The race yesterday was a function of very fast ground (not necessarily firm) which was not what most of the ratings were based on, misjudgement of pace by senior jockeys who probably thought that the hares would come back to them,and an improving filly neglected by the majority because of the difficulty of assessing the form.

One of the better summaries I've read, Sandown... Inclined to agree. Surprised by the result and waiting for more info before coming to a final conclusion but the form of the race this year does smell a bit iffy to me...

bizarre thread imo.