Horse Antepost
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The Qatar Prix de l’Abbaye takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 2nd October as part of the supporting card to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Trends for the past 10 runnings below (http://tinyurl.com/6bueh2n):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
2yo: 0-1-5
3yo: 1-3-44
4yo: 1-2-41
5yo: 6-6-31
6yo: 2-6-26
7yo+: 0-2-28
8 of 10 winners were aged 5 or 6
Horses aged 2 to 4 have a combined record of 2-6-90
Horses aged 5 or 6 have a combined record of 8-12-57
In 2009 Total Galley became the first 3yo since 1997 to win the race. In the past 20 years only three 3yos have won it, 2 were fillies and all 3 had won or placed in listed/group company as 2yos.
Since the race was first run in 1957 only 2 horses aged over 6 have won it.
Gender
Fillies/mares (2-4-45) have gained 2 wins in the past 10 years from approximately 25.7% of the runners.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a race that season
10 of 10 winners ran at least 3 times that season
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners had run in the past 4 weeks
9 of 10 winners had won over 5F
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F
5 of 10 winners had won or placed in a group 1 (other 5 were having first start in a group 1)
8 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (both exceptions won a big sprint h'cap that season)
10 of 10 winners had won a sprint worth 24K+
Other Races
Greenlands Stakes winner (Hitchens): 031 (1-1-3)
Renaissance Stakes winner (Bewitched): 361 (1-1-3)
Epsom Dash winner (Captain Dunne): 310 (1-1-3)
Prix du Gros-Chene winner (Wizz Kid): 0755830170 (1-1-10)
Stewards Cup winner (Hoof It): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix Maurice de Gheest winner (Moonlight Cloud): 51 (1-0-2)
Starlit Stakes winner (Monsieur Chevalier): 41 (1-0-2)
Palace House Stakes winner (Tangerine Trees): 010 (1-0-3)
Flying Five Stakes winner (Amour Propre): 0010 (1-0-4)
Nunthorpe winner (Margot Did): 92236 (0-3-5)
Phoenix Sprint winner (Deacon Blues): 203 (0-2-3)
World Trophy winner (Deacon Blues): 262 (0-2-3)
Goldene Peitsche winner (Silverside): 00230 (0-2-5)
King George Stakes winner (Masamah): 753830 (0-2-6)
Prix De Ris-Orangis winner (Time Prisoner): 302600 (0-2-6)
Temple Stakes winner (Sole Power): 025 (0-1-3)
King's Stand winner (Prohibit): 249 (0-1-3)
Coral Charge winner (Night Carnation): 360 (0-1-3)
Prix Du Petit Couvert winner (Prohibit): 5900730 (0-1-7)
Prix De Meautry winner (Marchand D'Or): 6770 (0-0-4)
City Walls Stakes winner (Masamah): 0060 (0-0-4)
Prix de Saint-Georges winner (Inxile): 0000404 (0-0-7)
3 of 10 winners ran in the July Cup, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix du Gros-Chene, finishing 431
3 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 020
3 of 10 winners ran in the World Trophy last time, finishing 226
3 of 10 winners ran in the King George Stakes, finishing 229
2 of 10 winners ran in the Flying Five Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Nunthorpe, finishing 47
2 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 71
2 of 10 winners ran in the Golden Jubilee, finishing 56
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hong Kong Sprint, finishing 36
2 of 10 winners ran in the Starlit Stakes, finishing 15
Trainers
British-trainers runners: 8-17-106
French-trained runners: 2-2-41
Other: 0-1-15
Irish-trained runners: 0-0-13
Since 2003 British-trained runners have accounted for 22 of the 24 places.
Roger Charlton (2-1-7) is the only trainer to have won the race more than once in the past decade (2003 & 2005).
Dandy Nicholls (1-3-15), Kevin Ryan (1-1-8), Clive Cox (1-0-1), Stan Moore (1-0-2), Mark Wallace (1-0-2) and Clive Brittain (1-0-2) are the other 5 British trainers to have saddled the winner of this race in the past 10 years.
Freddie Head (1-0-1) and John Hammond (1-0-4) are the two French-based trainers to have won the race since 2000.
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 5: 4-6-50
Horses drawn 6 to 10: 2-7-50
Horses drawn 11 to 15: 2-5-49
Horses drawn 16 or higher: 2-2-25
On good or firmer: 4 winners were drawn in stall 16, 13, 12 & 3
On ground softer than good: 6 winners were drawn 3, 7, 5, 8, 20 & 1
It appears that a low draw is favourable on softer ground while a higher draw is more suitable on faster ground.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from first 5 in the betting & were sent off 10/1 or shorter
Desert Lord (2006) and Gilt Edge Girl (2010) both won at 25/1 so there is the occasional upset in this.
Favourites (2-4-12) have won just 2 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 5 or 6
• Finished in the first 3 last time out
• Had last run in the past 30 days
• Won over 6F
• Won a group or listed race worth 40K+
• First 3 in a group 1 (or having first run in a group 1)
• First 3 in July Cup, World Trophy or Prix du Gros Chene
• Won Epsom Dash, Renaissance or Greenlands Stakes
• Trained in Britain
• Drawn low on softer or high on faster ground
Trends for the past 10 runnings below (http://tinyurl.com/6bueh2n):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
2yo: 0-1-5
3yo: 1-3-44
4yo: 1-2-41
5yo: 6-6-31
6yo: 2-6-26
7yo+: 0-2-28
8 of 10 winners were aged 5 or 6
Horses aged 2 to 4 have a combined record of 2-6-90
Horses aged 5 or 6 have a combined record of 8-12-57
In 2009 Total Galley became the first 3yo since 1997 to win the race. In the past 20 years only three 3yos have won it, 2 were fillies and all 3 had won or placed in listed/group company as 2yos.
Since the race was first run in 1957 only 2 horses aged over 6 have won it.
Gender
Fillies/mares (2-4-45) have gained 2 wins in the past 10 years from approximately 25.7% of the runners.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a race that season
10 of 10 winners ran at least 3 times that season
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners had run in the past 4 weeks
9 of 10 winners had won over 5F
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F
5 of 10 winners had won or placed in a group 1 (other 5 were having first start in a group 1)
8 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (both exceptions won a big sprint h'cap that season)
10 of 10 winners had won a sprint worth 24K+
Other Races
Greenlands Stakes winner (Hitchens): 031 (1-1-3)
Renaissance Stakes winner (Bewitched): 361 (1-1-3)
Epsom Dash winner (Captain Dunne): 310 (1-1-3)
Prix du Gros-Chene winner (Wizz Kid): 0755830170 (1-1-10)
Stewards Cup winner (Hoof It): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix Maurice de Gheest winner (Moonlight Cloud): 51 (1-0-2)
Starlit Stakes winner (Monsieur Chevalier): 41 (1-0-2)
Palace House Stakes winner (Tangerine Trees): 010 (1-0-3)
Flying Five Stakes winner (Amour Propre): 0010 (1-0-4)
Nunthorpe winner (Margot Did): 92236 (0-3-5)
Phoenix Sprint winner (Deacon Blues): 203 (0-2-3)
World Trophy winner (Deacon Blues): 262 (0-2-3)
Goldene Peitsche winner (Silverside): 00230 (0-2-5)
King George Stakes winner (Masamah): 753830 (0-2-6)
Prix De Ris-Orangis winner (Time Prisoner): 302600 (0-2-6)
Temple Stakes winner (Sole Power): 025 (0-1-3)
King's Stand winner (Prohibit): 249 (0-1-3)
Coral Charge winner (Night Carnation): 360 (0-1-3)
Prix Du Petit Couvert winner (Prohibit): 5900730 (0-1-7)
Prix De Meautry winner (Marchand D'Or): 6770 (0-0-4)
City Walls Stakes winner (Masamah): 0060 (0-0-4)
Prix de Saint-Georges winner (Inxile): 0000404 (0-0-7)
3 of 10 winners ran in the July Cup, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix du Gros-Chene, finishing 431
3 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 020
3 of 10 winners ran in the World Trophy last time, finishing 226
3 of 10 winners ran in the King George Stakes, finishing 229
2 of 10 winners ran in the Flying Five Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Nunthorpe, finishing 47
2 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 71
2 of 10 winners ran in the Golden Jubilee, finishing 56
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hong Kong Sprint, finishing 36
2 of 10 winners ran in the Starlit Stakes, finishing 15
Trainers
British-trainers runners: 8-17-106
French-trained runners: 2-2-41
Other: 0-1-15
Irish-trained runners: 0-0-13
Since 2003 British-trained runners have accounted for 22 of the 24 places.
Roger Charlton (2-1-7) is the only trainer to have won the race more than once in the past decade (2003 & 2005).
Dandy Nicholls (1-3-15), Kevin Ryan (1-1-8), Clive Cox (1-0-1), Stan Moore (1-0-2), Mark Wallace (1-0-2) and Clive Brittain (1-0-2) are the other 5 British trainers to have saddled the winner of this race in the past 10 years.
Freddie Head (1-0-1) and John Hammond (1-0-4) are the two French-based trainers to have won the race since 2000.
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 5: 4-6-50
Horses drawn 6 to 10: 2-7-50
Horses drawn 11 to 15: 2-5-49
Horses drawn 16 or higher: 2-2-25
On good or firmer: 4 winners were drawn in stall 16, 13, 12 & 3
On ground softer than good: 6 winners were drawn 3, 7, 5, 8, 20 & 1
It appears that a low draw is favourable on softer ground while a higher draw is more suitable on faster ground.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from first 5 in the betting & were sent off 10/1 or shorter
Desert Lord (2006) and Gilt Edge Girl (2010) both won at 25/1 so there is the occasional upset in this.
Favourites (2-4-12) have won just 2 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 5 or 6
• Finished in the first 3 last time out
• Had last run in the past 30 days
• Won over 6F
• Won a group or listed race worth 40K+
• First 3 in a group 1 (or having first run in a group 1)
• First 3 in July Cup, World Trophy or Prix du Gros Chene
• Won Epsom Dash, Renaissance or Greenlands Stakes
• Trained in Britain
• Drawn low on softer or high on faster ground
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Replies: 21
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in engineering they work to =/- 3mm,speeding fines dont kick in till 33mph,in all areas of life you need to have some grey area between exact and near enough.when assessing a race using trends/stats always add 1 or 10 % or whatever category you are looking at,if must have a rating of say 123,then just include from 120+.
these trends are a bit too involved,but very interesting. beware of the stat 10/10 had won a race over 24k,lower prize money and such a sharp cut off may cost you,so try 18k allow a bit of leverage. |
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I can't believe someone critiqued the guy who does the trends.
What are you trying to do? Put him off? They are trends! They are what they are! |
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no - i ve said they re very interesting,i was just helping people how to interperate them better,they re alot more involved than craig thakes ,waste of space attempts,which actually tell you nothing,so racecaller08 ,dont stop all info is good info
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Good work racecaller
The stats suggest she won't win but the race hinges around your assessment of Moonlight Cloud. Her form is alot better than anything she'll face here but she's dropping back from 6 1/2f to 5f. To make money from betting these are the sort of puzzles you need to try and solve. If it's not a problem for her and she has the pace then great but if she hasn't got the pace then she's a poor bet. At 6f it would be a no brainer but at 5f I'm unsure. 5f hold up horses are never ideal to bet in big fields on due to them only needing a slight bit of trouble to cost them the race. If she's given a favourable high draw, allowing plenty of space, with front runners to toe her along i'd be inclined to bet her if the price is decent. A low draw near the rail would put me off due to bunching problems. The lack of video evidence for some of her runs and previous abbayes makes it even more difficult to solve. |
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Would I be wrong in saying that the race is actually over 4.5f?
Apologies if I am wrong. |
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They say it's over 5f but I think thats highly unlikey to be the case. My guess is that its about 4.66f.
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5/2 about Moonlight Cloud is too short for me despite the race looking weak.
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I can't have Moonlight Cloud over the minimum trip. I much prefer Wizz Kid at around 10/1. Masamah ran a blinder last time and would be my second pick (also at around 10/1).
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Wizz Kid
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Will ground not be on the quick side for Wizz Kid? Should have gone closer in the Nunthorpe though
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I would be backing Wizz Kid big time if the ground had the word soft in the description, but there is no chance of that and I think I will have to give her swerve this weekend. Being by Whipper and the fact all her best form has been with cut in the ground it's going to be tough for her. The one I like who has got form with Wizz Kid and Prohibit is Mar Adentro, he looks like he's coming to the boil nicely and I don't think the fast ground will be a problem. 16-1 looks a nice EW price at the moment, I just hope he gets a low draw! Beyond Desire is another one who could have a bit of a squeak but she needs to find some more improvement. On the plus side the ground and short 5F will suit her more than some of the other runners.
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Wizz Kid had a very troubled passage in Nunthorpe... at the price I'm prepared to take a punt on the ground, can't have Moonlight at the price dropping back to 5 furlongs, I like Prohibit but his price is also prohibitive!
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I know there is doubts about the ground with Wizz Kid, but it's the same price now as it was when Moonlight was fav....
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The course manager at Longchamp has said that he will water to ensure 'good to soft' ground on Sunday morning, so that it dries out to good ground by the afternoon. The Abbaye is at 12.45, so it's likely to be genuinely good ground (or possibly on the sticky side of good?). Whatever the ground, it's a wide open race and luck in running will play a part.
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who rides margot did?
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Spenecer rides it Reve
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thought he might. thanks
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Draw
01 Prohibit 02 Sole Power 03 Spectacle Du Mars 04 Wizz Kid 05 Captain Dunne 06 Beyond Desire 07 Margot Did 08 Secret Asset 09 Tangerine Trees 10 Masamah 11 Requinto 12 Iver Bridge Lad 13 Bluster 14 Alcohuaz 15 Mar Adrento |
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Could stall one be a problem for Prohibit?
He is not the usual point and shoot style of runner that an inside berth would usually suit. I personally think that he could encounter some traffic problems from there. |
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Wow what great trends
Doesn't Masamah stand out 10/1 looks hugely attractive I always get this race wrong so here's hoping these trends correct that. |
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The crazy camera angles drive me mad, a nightmare for anyone backing in running.
As always with this race there'll be a few hard luck stories, considering by the sounds of the clerk of the course they're planning on emptying the River Seine onto the track the ground should be ok for Wizz Kid who looks a standout at the prices. Might have a small ew on Spectacle du Mars who was badly baulked behind prohibit last time before staying on again. |