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Sahpresa 3/1
Emulous 9/2
Alanza 11/2
Timepiece 7/1
Nahrain 10/1
Together 14/1
16/1 BAR
Sahpresa's 2 length beating of Moonlight Cloud when conceding a penalty is probably the best form on off. She has since ran a respectable 3rd to Goldikova and the classy Immortal Verse.
Emulous has won her last 3 races, including the most impressive of them all last time out when winning the Matron by an easy 3 lengths with the useful solid performer Together back in 2nd. Misty For Me was also behind them in third, but she probably wasn't suited by conditions that day, being forced to make the running over a trip and ground not ideal.
Alanza is in a way similar to Emulous, in that she come here on a roll of victories with an impressive win in G3 company last time out where she had to weave her way through horses and was on top at the finish. Trainer sees fit to pay the supplementary fee, but this is a big step-up in class.
Timepiece back to a track that she loves and has also shown improved form this season and should once again run a game and consistent race, but despite winning a G1 already this season, I dont personally think she is a G1 filly. The ground conditions that day played a part, but if there is some rain around this will suit.
Nahrain has been progressive winning handicaps and listed races and had her form boosted by Primever, a bit. Looks like she has been given time to progress slowly.
Together has solid Group1 placed form and is bound to run her race. Possibly she may improve fitness wise from last run.
At the prices, 9/2, eachway 1/4 odds for Emulous looks the pick,imo, but under ante-post terms I think I shall wait for day of the race before backing her. She looks a class horse and is attempting a four-timer, and being by Dansili she is clearly getting better with age.
Emulous 9/2
Alanza 11/2
Timepiece 7/1
Nahrain 10/1
Together 14/1
16/1 BAR
Sahpresa's 2 length beating of Moonlight Cloud when conceding a penalty is probably the best form on off. She has since ran a respectable 3rd to Goldikova and the classy Immortal Verse.
Emulous has won her last 3 races, including the most impressive of them all last time out when winning the Matron by an easy 3 lengths with the useful solid performer Together back in 2nd. Misty For Me was also behind them in third, but she probably wasn't suited by conditions that day, being forced to make the running over a trip and ground not ideal.
Alanza is in a way similar to Emulous, in that she come here on a roll of victories with an impressive win in G3 company last time out where she had to weave her way through horses and was on top at the finish. Trainer sees fit to pay the supplementary fee, but this is a big step-up in class.
Timepiece back to a track that she loves and has also shown improved form this season and should once again run a game and consistent race, but despite winning a G1 already this season, I dont personally think she is a G1 filly. The ground conditions that day played a part, but if there is some rain around this will suit.
Nahrain has been progressive winning handicaps and listed races and had her form boosted by Primever, a bit. Looks like she has been given time to progress slowly.
Together has solid Group1 placed form and is bound to run her race. Possibly she may improve fitness wise from last run.
At the prices, 9/2, eachway 1/4 odds for Emulous looks the pick,imo, but under ante-post terms I think I shall wait for day of the race before backing her. She looks a class horse and is attempting a four-timer, and being by Dansili she is clearly getting better with age.
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Pretty much agree with all of that sint, apart from a small point in your last paragraph.
I think NOW is the time to back her. Imo there is no way she will be an ew price on the day and there may be less than 8 runners too!
I think NOW is the time to back her. Imo there is no way she will be an ew price on the day and there may be less than 8 runners too!
You could be right Apoc, I was actually temptend to back her anyway but I have been burnt in the past by Dermot Weld when he has said a horse will defnitley run and then doesn't. 
There is absolutley no reason why Emulous shouldn't turn up though, and Pat Smullen said last week on GetOn she will be going to Newmarket.
Think i've just talked myself into a small investment!
There is absolutley no reason why Emulous shouldn't turn up though, and Pat Smullen said last week on GetOn she will be going to Newmarket.Think i've just talked myself into a small investment!
9/2 is with Lads, by the way. Everyone else is 4/1 - 7/2.
With the ground being fast connections could turn round and say that they don't want to risk running her
downhill on fast ground as she's a heavy topped filly.
downhill on fast ground as she's a heavy topped filly.
Imo they will water the he11 out of the ground if they think it will ride quick, so hopefully that will not be an issue.
Maybe, but from an ante-post point of view it's not ideal .
The amount of rain that falls in the next 24 hours will determine whether Newmarket clerk Michael Prosser will water as he readies the course for the three-day Cambridgeshire meeting.
Speaking on Monday evening, Prosser said: "We've had a dry day today, but we are forecast rain on and off throughout tomorrow. We are forecast between six and seven millimetres but that could easily be more or less.
"Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are set fair, we are forecast around 18C, lovely autumnal weather. Saturday should be largely dry, but there is the possibility of a millimetre or two, that's what the radars are telling us.
"Obviously tomorrow is the key day, if we get the forecast rain, or more, then we'll be fine, if it doesn't come then we may need to apply some irrigation on Wednesday as we are currently good to firm."
From the RP,been very cloudy today but not alot of rain yet
Speaking on Monday evening, Prosser said: "We've had a dry day today, but we are forecast rain on and off throughout tomorrow. We are forecast between six and seven millimetres but that could easily be more or less.
"Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are set fair, we are forecast around 18C, lovely autumnal weather. Saturday should be largely dry, but there is the possibility of a millimetre or two, that's what the radars are telling us.
"Obviously tomorrow is the key day, if we get the forecast rain, or more, then we'll be fine, if it doesn't come then we may need to apply some irrigation on Wednesday as we are currently good to firm."
From the RP,been very cloudy today but not alot of rain yet
They have raced her 3 times on GF so they must think it will be OK for her. She beat LollyForDolly earlier this year on GF, but take your point about the undulations etc.
i'm also an emulous fan. However theres a couple of things that concern me. firstly will she bounce from that leopardstown run, because she seemed to race pretty hard there.
the second thing that might worry me is this alanza. the turn of foot she showed last time at donny was just as impressive as emulous in the matron, and as that was over 7 furlongs it's reasonable to assume she's going to be even better over a mile.
as i've never been a huge saphresa fan anyway, i'm quite happy to take her on with the less exposed fillies. Of course she's won this the last two years so she must be respected, but i'll just be dissapointed if one of those two didn't have her measure on saturday.
the second thing that might worry me is this alanza. the turn of foot she showed last time at donny was just as impressive as emulous in the matron, and as that was over 7 furlongs it's reasonable to assume she's going to be even better over a mile.
as i've never been a huge saphresa fan anyway, i'm quite happy to take her on with the less exposed fillies. Of course she's won this the last two years so she must be respected, but i'll just be dissapointed if one of those two didn't have her measure on saturday.
you can also throw nahrain in to the mix as well, as she's done nothing wrong and will be hard to outbattle in the final furlong.
Defo have to wait and see whats going on with the weather and ground before having a bet here,but i would expect this to be dominated by Sahpresa and Timepiece and as long as mug christophe does not have another nightmare like his last visit to newmarket then she should have to much class for the rest
by all accounts sint 10.5mm overnight,i am not that far away and it warm and dry today
10.5 mm ? Wow, thats a fair bit, but the forecast is to be very dry and warm on Thurs & Friday aswell. It is nice and sunny here too.
hopefully no watering and we have decent quick racing ground
I'm toying with Together at a price. Thereabouts on Classic form, fine run in the big sales race over the course (looks like a decent field again), improvement expected for autumn campaign.
could be an interesting International Autumn campaign for her.
could be an interesting International Autumn campaign for her.
I'm on Nahrain & 10/1 expecting a v.big run. Big step up but done nothing wrong.
Is that definate elis ?
If So I will put it down to the Dermot Weld factor!! Never back his horses ante-post, folks!
If So I will put it down to the Dermot Weld factor!! Never back his horses ante-post, folks!
Emulous & Nahrain out. Done 3pts there.
Unlucky Solvingthepuzzle.
Unlucky Solvingthepuzzle.
I'll have to side with Alanza now as you stated Sint big step up again but at least proven at Group level. Just wish I'd taken your advice & waited till the day. Good Luck all.
The 2 I like here are Chachamadee and I'm a dreamer. Chacamadee should have beaten Alanza last time but the
jockey had her in the front way too early. She travels very well in her races and if there is little pace early
and Mongan delivers her late she may win.
No horse has cost me more money this season than I'm a dreamer, she looked a world beater back in May but
has since run poorly twice for very little reason. Filly's are temperemental and if she's back to the same form she was in in May over the same course she's got a big chance. She bounces off fast ground so the faster
the ground the better. I'll be backing her to get my money back at 16/1 and have something on Chachamadee at 10/1.
jockey had her in the front way too early. She travels very well in her races and if there is little pace early
and Mongan delivers her late she may win.
No horse has cost me more money this season than I'm a dreamer, she looked a world beater back in May but
has since run poorly twice for very little reason. Filly's are temperemental and if she's back to the same form she was in in May over the same course she's got a big chance. She bounces off fast ground so the faster
the ground the better. I'll be backing her to get my money back at 16/1 and have something on Chachamadee at 10/1.
The favourite Sahpresa is a worthy favourite - the form of three of her last four performances is better than anything her rivals have ever achieved - and she is much the likeliest winner. With eight runners it's tempting to look for an each-way alternative, but they all have their drawbacks. I quite like I'm A Dreamer - you can forget her last run, where she was held up off a slow pace and could never get involved. She likes the course and the likely fast ground, and I prefer her to Sir Henry's 'second string' Chachamaidee, who is possibly best at 7f these days. Timepiece has a rock solid chance of gaining a place but she's not a big enough price to interest me. Alanza is relatively poor value at the odds and I'd be tempted to LAY her at around 3/1 (though she's likely to be a bigger price than that). I'm tempted to have a small interest in Strawberrydaiquiri: she was second in this race last year (when trained by Sir Michael Stoute), was coming back from a long break last time on soft ground at Sandown, should be straighter for that run, will like the faster ground and comes from an in-form stable (following the good runs by Brian Meehan's two fillies in America at the weekend he's had two winners and a second from three runners).
Simcock's filly in this. Will love the ground. Won over the course very impressively back in the spring. Great value at the prices.
A race to treat with caution for me.
Whilst Sahpresa looks the most likely winner in my book, there is no pace in the race and I could see a repeat of the Falmouth when they crawled early and she was in the wrong place when the sprint began.
Whilst Sahpresa looks the most likely winner in my book, there is no pace in the race and I could see a repeat of the Falmouth when they crawled early and she was in the wrong place when the sprint began.
You're right to point out that there is no obvious pace in the race. This could certainly hamper the favourite's chances. Strawberrydaquiri can take a keen hold, so my guess is that Martin Dwyer may take her to the front (if no one else wants to go on) and then dictate a moderate pace through the first few furlongs, with Timepiece close up behind, before sprinting the last couple of furlongs.
9/4 about Sahpresa is a massive price,she must be backed and is going to play with this lot tomorrow and the fact that Alanza is just half a point bigger at 3/1 is an insult
timepiece looks very tempting indeed to me now.
agree that its not a race to get heavily involved with as wouldn't be the biggest surprise
if one of the outsiders won.
however fail to see why timepiece can't make it a repeat of the falmouth, as that wasn't a fluke for me.
don't fancy saphresa at all, I would agree that she's the best horse in the race and has the best form, but for some reason I have a very strong feeling she won't be winning tomorrow.
agree that its not a race to get heavily involved with as wouldn't be the biggest surprise
if one of the outsiders won.
however fail to see why timepiece can't make it a repeat of the falmouth, as that wasn't a fluke for me.
don't fancy saphresa at all, I would agree that she's the best horse in the race and has the best form, but for some reason I have a very strong feeling she won't be winning tomorrow.
at 3:15 tomorrow that 'strong feeling' will be proven as a very silly feeling and it would be a huge surprise to me if an outsider won,the fact is that if Sahpresa runs to form-she wins and i see no reason why she wont deliver her best and after the Falmouth Christophe Lemug wont make the same mistake again
5pts Nap,fill you boots
5pts Nap,fill you boots
Alanza running in Listed Races and scrambling home, up against genuine Group 1 opposition, is 4.3 
I've backed Together.
I've backed Together.
Saphresa the standout on form, Alanza looks progressive and Timepiece best of the rest.
Market is spot on for me so no bet.
Market is spot on for me so no bet.
you'll have egg on your face tomorrow the form man.
Timepiece might find this ground a bit too lively imo.
Might play a few quid on Music Show .. Channons horses have ran well at this meeting and she has the visor fitted for the first time, has useful backclash aswell. Agree Sahpresa should be winning this all things being equal.
Might play a few quid on Music Show .. Channons horses have ran well at this meeting and she has the visor fitted for the first time, has useful backclash aswell. Agree Sahpresa should be winning this all things being equal.
Think this race is primed for a shock, im reversing the simcock one with the two that could get 1st run in Together and Timepiece
Ok Together's a bit of a twicer but surely her season's form puts her bang there. Especially her Guineas run on similar ground.
She's only run in top races and has to be value EW bearing in mind she's the only horse with both good recent form and Classic form
Obviously if Saphresa hosed up i'd not be remotely surprised
She's only run in top races and has to be value EW bearing in mind she's the only horse with both good recent form and Classic form
Obviously if Saphresa hosed up i'd not be remotely surprised
Alanza looks a shoxking price at 3/1 or so. Rather than laying her it's best to back something else at a price imo.
cant be having together,has not won since her maiden as a 2 yo
I can't disagree that Sahpresa has the best form in the book, but if all races were won by the horse with the previous best form the game would be a piece of piss. For me, her Prix Rothschild 2nd was marginally the best run of her career. She didn't run quite up to that form last time out though and at the age of 6 I wouldn't want to be taking a short price about her running to her best again here. I can also see why some are saying Alanza is too short, as on the bare form she has something to find. That said, she looks like the only horse in the field still open to improvement and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her progress past the more established runners today.
Saphresa looks the likeliest winner but, with a flat 8 field and tactics likely to play a big part, I think there is some ew value. Chachamaidee was giving 3lbs to Alanza last time out and was only pipped late on having possibly been committed too early. The difference in price between the two is way too big. This filly has a nice turn of foot which could be important in a slowly run race and she will like the ground. The extra furlong would be a concern but at 12-1 she'll do for me.
This looks a penalty kick for Saphresa in what looks a weak group 1 IMO. She is a huge price for me just like she was last year for this race. If she was an English mare with her form she'd be 5/4 or evens. I think Strawberrydaquiri could ensure an even gallop if she is back to her best now having her second run for Meehan.
One that I would like to see run a big race is Channon's Music Show, she has appeared really regressive this season. I suppose it's more likely to be tactical but if this happened to be really strongly run then I would give her a squeak. She likes the Rowley Mile and really needs gd-fm to be seen at her best, if the first time visor were to straighten her up she could be huge value.
One that I would like to see run a big race is Channon's Music Show, she has appeared really regressive this season. I suppose it's more likely to be tactical but if this happened to be really strongly run then I would give her a squeak. She likes the Rowley Mile and really needs gd-fm to be seen at her best, if the first time visor were to straighten her up she could be huge value.
Nice to see Sahpresa do it for a third time, even if I wasn't on, wd backers.
Lemaire didn't make the same mistake twice. I'm pleased with Strawberrydaquiri's run - she was never going to beat the favourite but came right back to form to land the place part of the each-way bet.
Nice one James. She is a reliable horse.
That was an amazing price on the fav this morning. Wish I'd been a bit braver but a decent result none the less.
That was an amazing price on the fav this morning. Wish I'd been a bit braver but a decent result none the less.
wd James and Sahpresa backers.
Nice to see her win. That thumping of Moonlight Cloud under a penalty stood out like a sore thumb. A nice compliment to Immortal Verse also.
Nice to see her win. That thumping of Moonlight Cloud under a penalty stood out like a sore thumb. A nice compliment to Immortal Verse also.
Sahpresa may well be a high class filly but the rest of the field couldn't have made it any easier for her. Lack of pace, again. What Buick was doing on I'm A Dreamer I'll never know when Simcock explicitly stated a slow pace would be her undoing if she was held up, so if there was no pace she'd race prominently. What does Buick do? Hold her up off a crawl.
I think had there been a strong pace she'd have won easier to be honest. The worry about it being a slow pace was the reason Saphresa was such a big price in the first place.
You've got to admire saphresa and goldikova, race in race out they put in top efforts and Saphresa was a desicive winner today and is a credit to her trainer.
Well, I for one despise races run at a crawl. Absolute joke. May as well throw the formbook out the window.
But the best horse on form won the race. Keep the form book on the window sill.....
I don't think you can ever say that with genuine conviction unless the race is truly run.
tbf Collet said she was only beat in the falmouth because of the slow pace........
"We learned a lot in the Falmouth - it was a joke race," added Collet, who now trains Sahpresa for Teruya Yoshida.
"We came for an English pace in an English race and we got a French pace."
"We learned a lot in the Falmouth - it was a joke race," added Collet, who now trains Sahpresa for Teruya Yoshida.
"We came for an English pace in an English race and we got a French pace."
johnnyrant
I don't think you can ever say that with genuine conviction unless the race is truly run.
The horse with the best form did win the race. Winning the same race the two previous years was better form than any other runner had produced never mind Saphresa's other performances for the past three seasons including this one. I said that the best horse on form won the race, I didn't say the best horse won the race (although it did). There is a difference, it doesn't matter how the race was run today Saphresa's form was the best going into the race.
The race being run at a slow pace may have affected the outcome in your opinion but that doesn't change what the form of the runners going into the race was...
I don't think you can ever say that with genuine conviction unless the race is truly run.
The horse with the best form did win the race. Winning the same race the two previous years was better form than any other runner had produced never mind Saphresa's other performances for the past three seasons including this one. I said that the best horse on form won the race, I didn't say the best horse won the race (although it did). There is a difference, it doesn't matter how the race was run today Saphresa's form was the best going into the race.
The race being run at a slow pace may have affected the outcome in your opinion but that doesn't change what the form of the runners going into the race was...
yes, but that doesn't mean she would have won in a truly run affair. One could have improved past her. We wil never know. It was another joke race for a group 1 regardless of 'the best horse' winning.
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