Danedream ARC De Triomphe

Probably wont know till last day for supplementing them unfortunately.

Eyes on the weather ROWLEY, I think. She is the best I can remember for handling heavy going, it's as if heavy doesn't exist.

anyone have a link to any of DD's performances?

I've found some footage.

.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3GjMUnAR0U

TY JC very helpful & v.impressive I have a small saver which returns all my stake so at least I can sleep now if the heavens open in Paris!

no problem stp.

this her going right-handed in july.

.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le3Xm_kfJrI&feature=related

Looks a monster JC & that was on good ground! Not sure what the quality of the opposition is but picks up really well & powers away once in front. Got to have a chance if it goes to Paris might just increase my bet slightly thanks again.

Weather forecast looks pretty nice for the next 2 weeks so can't see her figuring myself.

Don't know if we can label her a mudder yet, uncle.

Anyway, there will be no decision on her particpation until after a workout pencilled in for next Tuesday.

Can't see this winning an Arc tbh.

At approx 40/1 I guess the price backs up that statement. But as HM has said should the forecast be skew-whiff & the ground get soft-heavy things could be very different.

Danedream has been bought into by the Japs (Yoshida?) and will be supplemented into the Arc on Thursday.  Confirmed.

its going to win
  end of.

Green to 4 figs now for not a lot of outlay all at avg upper 40's. Let the watering commence! In fact I'll come over & do it for you for free. Better still I'll water now til 1st race night & day. Jokes aside my biggest winner after SYT,Meandre & Hiruno Damour in that order. Insurance really just can't see SYT being beaten. Call me stubborn but I have my reasons. TY for the heads up HM. As you've commented she looked rather good on good as well as soft. Rated 118 I think looked to be improving leaps & bounds to me & you never know GL all.

If that over-hyped piece of sauerkraut wins the Arc I'll run a marathon for the IJF!!!

Hurrican Run could have won that race http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le3Xm_kfJrI&feature=related off that pace!  Look him up - a 2 mile Hurdler!!  Albeit a rather well bred and rather good one

Fair to say you're not a huge fan then F? The filly beat what she was up against in good style both on good & soft. Couldn't have asked for more OK she may not have beaten much but she's shown enough to take her chance. With all the scrimmaging that normally goes on in this race a lot can happen so at big odds I'd rather be on than not. I see your on Reliable Man well I hope he turns out to be just that for you, although I have a horrible feeling(for you) he'll be lost somewhere in SYT's slipstream. GL see you on here Sunday.

Can't be having her at all - even useless nags like Campanologist can win German Group 1's - different world to UK and France.

we'll see, i dont think shes coming out of the first 3.

Why would the new owners who own the richest stud in the world want to run her...and risk losing value at stud.

Oh ...and reliable man has no chance...its drifting like a barge! id be worried if i were you.

Ground's gone against Reliable Man  May still run but by no means certain

If it IS G-f my bets ON THE DAY will be Snow Fairy and Workforce against the field - both proven Grp 1 G-f perfomers - Workforce is the grinder and SF is the finisher... that'll do for me... but the RM ticket is still safely pinned to the board  [;)]

@Rozelkid...

your logic ... DEFIES LOGIC

You justify Danedream becuase the richest stud has bought bher... and criticise RM because his price is drifting?!"!


TRY READING FORM, old bean... then try looking at ratings and then the draw... THEN you can read the odds and speculate about nowners, if you MUST[:p][:p][:p][:p]

Don't get me wrong - Danedream has four legs and CAN win... I just do NOT believe the ground/course/quality of the race will suit her and just do NOT believe she's in that league... I'm happy to be proven wrong and as I said will run a marathon for the ijf - AND post the date and time and sponsorship form on here - IF she wins  [:p][:p][:p]

look forward to the photos

I really don't understand all this talk about stud value? I thought this was a Filly!!

I'm not that clued up on Japaneese racing but I presume she will join the broodmares at the new owners stud, that they will breed her with their own colts and race her offspring under their own colours?
So imo the owners are not really risking any monetary value, they are just taking a punt in a wide open year.
Another point, Fillies and Mares can never be regarded as a stud cash cow for One simple reason... They can only give birth once a year, a top colt could sire a few hundred a Season.

As to her chances? On decent ground I'd be surprised if she finished in the top 7 or 8 tbh. I certainly do not see her finishing in front of Galikova or Sarafina, who imo are far superior Fillies. On Heavy, I'm sure her chances would improve dramatically but atm that is not looking too likely.

Good luck all you guys on at tasty odds, I'm sure most of you will be doing a rain dance for the rest of the week

Cake, she WILL be a valuable mare in the Shadai stud if she wins, she
is very well related and this is why she has been bought.

so we find out tomorrow morning if this one is going to be supplemented .. ditto for Meandre ..

If they keep and race their offspring WHY will she be more valuable at stud than she is now?

unbelievable

Was that Danedream or DAYDREAM ?.
Think youve been smoking that funny stuff again kid,[smiley:crazy]
One that that does interest me,how do you manage to start a blog under one name and post under another ???
Didnt know you were allowed 2 accounts on Betfair [:x]

[:D] lol, love it.

Danedream all the way, travelling sweetly throughout the race , them starke presses the button and booooom

By: This user is offline. RozelKid
Date Joined: 20 Aug 09 Add contact | Send message
When: 28 Sep 11 23:57 Joined: Date Joined: 20 Aug 09 | Topic/replies: 289 | Blogger: RozelKid's blog
unbelievable

What is ?

I love this comment from the Racing Post when she ran in the Italian Derby.

Danedream (GER) 15/2  3 8-13  P Schiergen  — * * » 
b f Lomitas - Danedrop (IRE) (Danehill) A Starke
  Mid-diivision until entering straight, ridden to track leaders on outer 3f out, stayed on under very hard ride final 2f to grab 3rd final 100yds 


Perhaps this was the making of her ?

RozelKid
28 Sep 11 23:57   

unbelievable

What is?

Last comfortable winner of Grosser Preis von Baden to run in Arc which I remember was Marienbard. Won at 20-1. Looks to me Danetime beat better. Schiergen is no mug and he was already talking about her rapid improvement and aiming her for Breeders Cup Filly and Mare mid summer. Not a ground dependent filly by any means. Another interesting 3yo filly is Testosterone -- who beat Danetime back in June. Sarafina's year imo was last year, and I cant remember when an older filly won the Arc.

If I was starting my book afresh, Testosterone would absolutely be the starting point. Still plenty of juice in her price.  I think people are forgetting, or haven't noticed, the Vermeille was her comeback run.  I'm almost expecting her to finish infront of Galikova on fast ground.

i mean ffs,unbelievable,  as a punter in these type of races do we stand any chance , i mean ffs, Gosden entering masked marvel.

Can this thing lead all the way if it got a good draw?


if it does im on the first plane on Monday to his stables to stick Buick's head right up his  A S S

Well done backers

get in.

WD Lads

Unbelievable (to me anyway)  - well done those who fancied her.

The owners sold that just before the arc

Anyone who was surprised, go and watch her last 2 races on youtube

I did mate. Top of the thread

excellent Rozell. well done.

also John Cherry, nice one.

I'm usually lazy and ask others to look for links to form but looked for myself this time.
WD all.
Record time i think as well!

where's Frankelstein gone??? Marathon for IJF....then realising he's gone overboard says maybe she can win....

poor Frankelstein hope you've done plenty of training recently,it's gonna be a long marathon

haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, frankensten, i defy logic do i ???


I knew it was going to win 2 weeks ago , and ive put all my offshoregallop members onto it, phone is still ringing!

well done to all who backed her!

well done RozelKid
Hope you made plenty.

vwd
GL

great selection Danedream

How do we sponsor Frankelstein in her/his marathon attempt on behalf of the IJF?

ive actually had 2 more doubles with danedream at 33s with 2 horses in the ceserawitch,  ashbrittle at 33s and bernie the bolt at 25s.


had 2 doubles up with danedream already, faraway at 20/1 wolverhampton a fortnight ago and a 12/1 shot jetmaster at perth.

what a day , still punching the air!!!

There's some guys on here who will be forever legends to me as they've  just won me 4 figures. The Port is opened & I'm toasting you all John Cherry,Rozelkid & Headmaster! You all put me onto this horse I had a saver but after your advice & links I 'piled in'. Been analysing this race for 4 months & this horse was one of my biggest payers. Loads of bad feeling with people over SYT I thought he ran a fair race to be honest but I said this Danedream looked a monster when JC gave us the links & to be honest to win an Arc by 5l well she probably is nice one lads.

well done solving,  get in !  hope you made a bundle.

Love it!

Nice one STP and Rozel and other winners. I never dreamed she'd win that well!

good tipping

Solving when you back 60% of the field you're bound to have a chance

I'm not gonna argue with OTS I had nine horses backed to varying degrees i think six gave me a healthy profit. I only do it in the big races mainly over the jumps. I don't understand what's 'wrong' with it if i make a healthy profit? I really (as you know) fancied SYT to win. I was wrong & am happy to hold my hands up. Surely ante post is about getting the best value you can? Can we just bury the hatchet & not in somebodies head?

stp, keep doing whatever works for you

Wd all Danedream backers. I knew she was good but thought she needed it softer

[;)]

A belated thank you to JOHN CHERRY for those links to her wins before the ARC.
I became a DANEDREAM BELIEVER after watching those vids.

wd

only kidding with you solving,well done,at least you backed the winner,if i had 20 picks i still wouldnt have picked Danedream so wd to you and others

Stunning

very well done guys , particulary Rozel

Thank you Tober,

I was so confident with this years Arc , i started to take notice of the horse straight after its September 4th win at Baden Baden, and i was getting more and more confident as the time was getting closer to the race and by watching its wins through youtube...( going back to July), making Dandino and Joshua Tree look like hcappers.

I have to say that if it wasnt for youtube then i wouldnt have been able to see how Danedream won its races in Germany, i obviously would have found out the results but the real pointer was how it won those 2 Group 1's in July & September , thats what gave me this confidence.


I think when you get so involved in finding the winner of the Arc within the 2 weeks before.. you start to notice what the bookies want "you" to back and what the media are pushing as the fancied horses, i can seriously say that within the last fortnight ive only ever seen this Danedream mentioned once and that was in a UK Newspaper yesterday, the amount of people slagging it off has been unreal, ive even had friends thinking im some sort of nutter lol.

Another thing that ive noticed is how the Racing media build up to a race like this ... i mean ATR , RUK , previews  etc, i can honestly say it was a massive pointer for me as they seriously overhyped all the french horses ..with the help of the french trainers , and they overhyped snow fairy , workforce aswell as the japanese horses this year.


IT all pointed to Danedream,  i think its quite obvious that the insiders knew that there was a filly called Danedream that was bred in germany and has been storming its group 1 races this year and the race was geared up for her, as far as im concerned and im thinking the rest of the trainers there today...it was like them having a sea the stars in an arc field but you could get 48/1 , lol, i bet they all piled in !

The trainer Schiergen even said it to Rishi Persad straight after the race, i didnt think she would win by that far! but i think he knew she would be in the first 3 at least.

Well i did, as ive been telling everyone for 2 weeks that she is going to beat the rest by many lenghts and it was going to be easy.

Congrats to all, Canadian International next on October 16th, no rest for the wicked!

Sometimes you've got to go with your visual impression!

Last year as Workforce crossed the line of the Derby I was hunting out his Arc price.  Weeks later I laid it back

This year as Danedream crossed the line at Baden Baden, I was feverishly clicking my way to the Arc betting.

I'm not going to pretend I was confident, far from it, but sometimes things just jump out at you and if you ignore them, you'll darn well regret it.  I imagine all the early Frankel devotees had a similar 'Eureka' moment sometime last year...

agree Jair,  I definitly jumped at Danedream because of where the horse came from and ow it had been campaigned.

However , ive learnt to never do that with Uk horses, because overall ...you wont get value , in the uk market anyway.

Just my opinion.

I just love it when you get a european horse that the uk media wont hype ....lol, but the insiders know it to be the best.

48/1 today is just crazy ...lol

I only got 33s in my doubles on september 18th, i was even backing it when it wasnt even certain to run as it was only confirmed on the 27th.

today has actually beaten by bet on Buick and Lahalaheeb in canada in 2009 at 40/1.


Just love it when you spot value, if i was a bookie  i would have priced Danedream at 5/1 in my book, and 2/5 to get placed.

actually i tell a lie,  i would have actually priced it at closer to 3/1 fav

The general perception of racing in Germany and Italy is 2nd class and that is why this horse was always going to be viewed as an outsider. The fact that she'd finished no better than 5th on her 2 starts in Group level fillies' races in France only added to this view.

Outside of Germany and Italy Starke had no history of big race wins and Schiergen's biggest success was Coronation Cup winner Boreal who had the added attraction of Kieran Fallon riding.

I was a non-believer based on this but obviously got it completely wrong.

Authorized, I think it is an in-built racial thing peculiar to we British, because I am conscious of it I avoid this prejudice in relation to horses, a horse does no know that it is JAPANESE or GERMAN or BRITISH , but only to run against it's own species, if we learn to think in this way we can open ourselves up to a foreign winner doing what it has been trained to do.
This little filly is the best of a long line of great fillies I have witnessed down the years, PETITE ETOILE, ALLEZ FRANCE, DAHLIA, NOBLESSE and many more, but for me she is the queen, it was NOT  a fluke she loves to race and she does it well, not ground dependent,
lots of young people around my area are wearing TEE SHIRTS with the words, JUST DO IT, she DOES IT.

I think the perception has been largely based on the fact that horses not good enough to win Group 1's over here have had success in Germany and Italy down the years. If German horses had won more in France and England then they would be feared in the same way as the Aussie sprinters are at Royal Ascot.

I was a big fan of Zarkava with her unbeaten record but it will be interesting to see Danedream race on.

Bazzar, it is nothing to do with being racially prejudice. How often do we see horses win by a street in Germany only for them to get found out when they try their luck in France or England ??

This horse had clearly improved massively in her last two races before yesterday, but before that she had been beaten many times so I think it was fair to treat her chances with a bit of caution.

For the people who backed her, very well done, and everyone can now see she is a superstar.

before that she had been beaten many times so I think it was fair to treat her chances with a bit of caution

The trouble is people are seduced by horses that have a string of 1s next to their name.  Time and a trip can be the making of a horse and it pays to recognise this.

Tangarine Trees spent most of its 3 and 4yo seasons getting beaten off marks in the mid to high 60s.  Comes back at 5 and starts winning at sprint trips and hasn't really looked back.  Similarly Snow Fairy had a highly moderate 2yo season and only flourished stepped up to a trip, since when she's not looked back either. 

Aside from her blip when behind Testosterone, the only time this year Danedream's not been ridden by Starke, she's won her last 4 starts (3 G1s and a G2) by a combined 22.5 lengths, with a minimum of 5 lengths.

When horses start getting the hang of things, it pays to take notice.

was only beaten about six lengths in last years Marcel Boussac. A length behind Galikova.