Horse Antepost
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19 Sep 11
14:47
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06 Jan 05
I don't see a market on betfair for this but Henry Cecil seems to have a lot to do in this now to win. He is on around the £2m in prize money and although he has a strong hand on champions day I think he looks a little bit too short as he is around £800k behind Richard Hannon now.
The QE2 is worth £567k to the winner and the Filles and Mares £250k. If he were to win both these races he would still need another big race, obviously he has twice-over in the champion but needing to win all three races means his price is too short. You can pencil Frankel in which would make up some of the difference but midday isn't going to go off shorter than 3/1 for the fillies and mares if Blue Bunting takes her chance. The minimum price for cecil should surely be the frankel / midday multiple and even this might not be enough considering that Hannon will clean up a couple more 2 year old prizes before the end.
John Gosden was an interesting bigger price as he is around £600k behind Hannon but has a live chance in the champion stakes with Nathaniel which would net him more than £700k and a few other horses who might compete for big prizes.
Anyway its an intersting market, shame that its not on here
The QE2 is worth £567k to the winner and the Filles and Mares £250k. If he were to win both these races he would still need another big race, obviously he has twice-over in the champion but needing to win all three races means his price is too short. You can pencil Frankel in which would make up some of the difference but midday isn't going to go off shorter than 3/1 for the fillies and mares if Blue Bunting takes her chance. The minimum price for cecil should surely be the frankel / midday multiple and even this might not be enough considering that Hannon will clean up a couple more 2 year old prizes before the end.
John Gosden was an interesting bigger price as he is around £600k behind Hannon but has a live chance in the champion stakes with Nathaniel which would net him more than £700k and a few other horses who might compete for big prizes.
Anyway its an intersting market, shame that its not on here
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Yeah I agree, I don't think Cecil should be so short. I hate looking at the market now though, because I had a huge amount of AOB earlier in the season at 7/2, and had counted my chickens when the market closed with him at 1/2. He's now a 6/1 shot.
The thing is that champions day is sure to change everything, and I think that Midday and Twice Over both go for the Champion, with Vita Nova going for the Fillies and Mares. Those, coupled with Frankel, mean that Cecil easily has the strongest hand on the day. With two strong horses in the Champion going for the 1st and 2nd prizes which total £1million he could still easily overtake. Also the total prize for the F+M is 250k, first prize is only 157k, which is why it makes way more sense for Midday to go for the Champion. |
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Il have to check what the prize money gap is now. Richard Hannon odds on across the board. Still plenty to play for.
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Sir Henry has Midday and Twice Over in the Champion Stakes. His chances hinge on winning this race - unless he does Hannon will be champion.
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Looks to me that the trainers table reads as follows;
1. Richard Hannon £2.860m 2. John Gosden £2.280m 3. Aiden O'brien £2.14m 4. Sir Henry Cecil £2.040m Although the decision to run Nathaniel in the Champion stakes certainly shakes things up a bit. May not be as cut and dried as it appears. The gap hasn't widened as much as might have been expected with best terms not living up to expectations in the Chevely Park. |
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still wide open, wouldnt rule o brien out especially if power runs in and wins the big sales race.
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Update:
1. Richard Hannon £3.308m 2. John Gosden £2.308m 3. Aiden O'brien £2.14m 4. Sir Henry Cecil £2.060m Looks a very difficult task to overhaul hannon now. Sir Henry will need a Frankel / Midday / Twice over multiple to catch-up the difference. Vita Nova likely being pulled from the fillies and Mares doesn't improve his chances. |