sea moon- back or lay?

Very much a lay for me, mp. I wouldn't argue against him having the best form in the book but he has nothing like the advantage that some ratings give him, I have him only a couple of pounds ahead of Blue Bunting and an on song Seville and just 5lbs above Masked Marvel. The main reason I'm opposing him though is I strongly suspect he won't run to his best, but for slightly different reasons than NM.

any particular reason figgis? and what is your fancy for the race, mate?

having looked at some of the replays now i'm starting to change my mind. sea moon travels like a beast
and has a huge raking stride. Look at that yorkshire oaks and it didn't exactly scream quality.

I rated him quite highly going into the Voltigeur, mp. His win at Doncaster had been underrated, it was achieved in a pretty fast time and he was conceding weight. I had only a pound between him, Namibian and Seville. I backed Namibian as I thought he offered the best value, but I was stupid as Sea Moon drifted out and I really should've backed him then as well. At first, like most people, I thought Sea Moon must've improved again at York, but when I'd had time to review the race properly, taking the time into account, I came to the conclusion he hadn't improved at all. For me, he ran pretty much the same race as he had at Doncaster, just 1lb higher. Namibian and Seville were obviously well below form and I reckon the race just fell apart in front of Sea Moon, making a decent performance look much better than it was. I'm a strong believer that horse's form goes in cycles. I reckon Sea Moon improved at Doncaster then just backed that run up last time, I think it's highly likely his improvement has levelled off now and I can see him running below that next time. He might prove me wrong but at such a short price I'm happy to oppose him.

As for who I fancy to take advantage, that's a bit trickier. With the fillies allowance I have nothing between Blue Bunting and Seville. BB seems a tough filly but I can't help thinking she's soon going to be feeling the effects of those efforts so I wouldn't back her at the price. Seville threw in a poor one last time but it would be no surprise to see him bounce back to his best, which would be good enough to take an average Leger. If he remains off the boil then I'd fancy Masked Marvel to capitalise, he's had a nice break and should go well. At the prices I'd take those two against the field.

Sorry, I meant York before the Voltigeur, dunno why I had Doncaster in mind.

looking at a video of that bahrain trophy, masked marvel oozes class. the trainer's record in the race
in recent years is extremely impressive. I think census was flattered by his proximity to the winner as masked
marvel was clearly idling in front.

take what you say about blue bunting having had a tough campaign. i'm starting to go off her now...

mp, have you ever been caught in only two minds?!

i'm actually some terrifying multi-headed monster really, like hydra or something

Who's knackers have been exposed at Racecourses up and down the land after unexplained defeats by several "Good Things"

gotta be a lay at that price


blue bunting for the win!

gl

I think he has to be a lay on value grounds for a number of reasons:

1: Could bounce
2: Voltigeur fell apart with Seville running no race (wouldn't be the first time York form hasn't held up)
3: Has yet to prove he has the required stamina (let's not forget this is more than a quarter mile further than he has been before)
4: If the ground is quick there is no guarantee he will be able to run to the same mark as last time
5: He is inexperienced at a high level

And then, perhaps most important of all (especially seeing as though he is on offer at around 5/4):

6: There are plenty of good horses running for you. Blue Bunting has won three Group Ones, two of them Classics, Seville's best form puts him right in the mix, Census and Brown Panther both look like genuine improvers who will love the trip, and Masked Marvel represents the team that have done very well in this race recently and has himself looked very smart on two occasions this year.

There you go, easy! Now watch him bolt up again.

mythical prince
06 Sep 11 14:14 
 
Blue bunting should never have been able to have won a guineas with her stamina laden pedigree, yet she did.

the way she finished like a rocket in the irish oaks means her turn of foot is going to be even harder to resist over 1 mile 6. fillies have a very good record in the st leger and i'm pretty convinced she'll add to that record.

The last filly to win the leger was in 1992 (User Friendly)

true, and they only get a 3 pound allowance now. also I think it's fair to say that blue bunting is nowhere near the user friendly league, but maybe she doesn't need to be?

I suppose the real question in this race is whether you can take sea moon's last run literally. If you can, then he's a 1-3 shot. But at the moment it's educated guessing.

i dont take it literally myself, then again i rarely take anything i see on a race track literally!!

everything just came together for him and the others fell apart, happens all the time!!

i didnt take middays beating in ireland literally and look at what misty for me did nto, midday wouldve hacked up in that race!!

what about my propellers maiden win at yarmouth? won about 20L ON THE BRIDLE, hard on the bridle at that!! sometimes these things happen and u just gotta accept it imo!!

if he goes and wins like that again ill believe but no way would i be having him at that price!! i wouldnt even back him if he was teice that price to be perfectly honest but again thats just me!! he has the pedigree and the raw ability it would seem but stoutes record isnt v good in the race either so for me i was never gonn aback him on the back of his last performance!

blue bunting will beat them all i think!!

the amount of races shes had is a worry but i think her price is more than fair given shes a duel classic winner and only ever gets there at the line!!

gl

Fast time into a head wind - lay all day

Meeznah hoses up on fast ground