Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
The Betfred Bundles Old Borough Cup is a 1M 6F class 2 handicap that takes place at Haydock on Saturday 3rd September as part of the supporting card to the Betfred Sprint Cup. The race was promoted from class 3 to class 2 in 2004, so some of the trends will focus more on the last 6 runnings when staged under current conditions. In general younger, less exposed, horses that put in a career best last time do well in this.
Below we take a look at trends for the past 10 runnings (2000-2010) http://tinyurl.com/3ekrear:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 5-6-32
4yo: 3-8-59
5yo: 2-7-39
6yo: 0-4-20
7yo+: 0-1-15
3 year olds have the best record, winning 5 of the last 10 from less than 20% of the total runners. There were no 3yo runners last year and once again there is no 3yo representative this time around.
All 10 winners since 2000 were aged 3 to 5, though they did represent almost 79% of the total runners.
Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 2-4-29
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-7-43
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-8-60
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-7-33
Horses carrying 9-0+ have won 6 of the last 10 (4 of 6 when run as a class 2) from 43.6% of the total runners.
Top weight: 87050593008 (0-1-11)
Official Ratings (2004-2010)
Horses rated 95 to 105: 4-5-29
Horses rated 85 to 94: 2-8-53
Horses rated 83 or lower: 0-2-12
Since the race became a class 2 handicap in 2004 all 6 winners were officially rated 90 or higher.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners ran 4 to 7 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time
7 of 10 winners posted career high RPR last time (2 others did so on penultimate start)
10 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicaps
7 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception was placed in Ebor on previous start)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F to 1M 6F
0 of 10 winners had previously won or placed at Haydock
Since race became a class 2 6 of 6 winners had won a class 2 or 3 race (but no higher)
Other Races
Northumberland Plate winner (Tominator): 0 (0-0-1)
Countrywide Freight H'cap winner (Line Of Duty): 6 (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Summer Stakes, finishing 24
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ebor H'cap, finishing 44
2 of 10 winners ran in Northumberland Plate, finishing 76
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in London Gold Cup, finishing 36
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in UBS Stakes, finishing 41
Trainers
Mark Johnston (3-4-18) has won the race three times since 2000 and also gained a further 4 places from his 18 representatives.
John Gosden (1-0-1) and Michael Stoute (1-0-2) are the only other trainers with entrants this year to have won the race since 2000.
Tim Easterby (0-3-5) has seen 3 of his 5 runners make the frame while Reg Hollinshead (0-2-3) saddled Royal Cavalier to be placed twice from 3 runs in the race.
Racing Tactics
5 of 6 winners on good or firmer were held up in midfield or rear
3 of 4 winners on soft/heavy led or raced with leaders
Price
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were priced 11/1 or shorter
Horses prominent in the betting have done well in this with the last 9 winners coming from the first 6 in the betting.
Favourites (5-3-12) have a very strong record, having won 5 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 13.00.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 3 to 5
• Carrying 9-0 or more
• Officially rated 95 or higher
• Ran 4 to 7 times in 2011
• Finished in the first 4 last time
• Posted highest RPR in last 2 starts
• Won a race this season
• Run in 6 or fewer handicaps (no more than 11)
• Won over 1M 4F to 1M 6F
• Won a class 2 or 3 race (but no higher)
• Placed in Summer Stakes and/or Ebor H’cap
• Hold up horses favoured on fast ground
• Horses who race prominently favoured on softer
• Trained by Mark Johnston or Tim Easterby
• Priced 11/1 or shorter (favourite does well)
Below we take a look at trends for the past 10 runnings (2000-2010) http://tinyurl.com/3ekrear:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 5-6-32
4yo: 3-8-59
5yo: 2-7-39
6yo: 0-4-20
7yo+: 0-1-15
3 year olds have the best record, winning 5 of the last 10 from less than 20% of the total runners. There were no 3yo runners last year and once again there is no 3yo representative this time around.
All 10 winners since 2000 were aged 3 to 5, though they did represent almost 79% of the total runners.
Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 2-4-29
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-7-43
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-8-60
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-7-33
Horses carrying 9-0+ have won 6 of the last 10 (4 of 6 when run as a class 2) from 43.6% of the total runners.
Top weight: 87050593008 (0-1-11)
Official Ratings (2004-2010)
Horses rated 95 to 105: 4-5-29
Horses rated 85 to 94: 2-8-53
Horses rated 83 or lower: 0-2-12
Since the race became a class 2 handicap in 2004 all 6 winners were officially rated 90 or higher.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners ran 4 to 7 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time
7 of 10 winners posted career high RPR last time (2 others did so on penultimate start)
10 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicaps
7 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception was placed in Ebor on previous start)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F to 1M 6F
0 of 10 winners had previously won or placed at Haydock
Since race became a class 2 6 of 6 winners had won a class 2 or 3 race (but no higher)
Other Races
Northumberland Plate winner (Tominator): 0 (0-0-1)
Countrywide Freight H'cap winner (Line Of Duty): 6 (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Summer Stakes, finishing 24
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ebor H'cap, finishing 44
2 of 10 winners ran in Northumberland Plate, finishing 76
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in London Gold Cup, finishing 36
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in UBS Stakes, finishing 41
Trainers
Mark Johnston (3-4-18) has won the race three times since 2000 and also gained a further 4 places from his 18 representatives.
John Gosden (1-0-1) and Michael Stoute (1-0-2) are the only other trainers with entrants this year to have won the race since 2000.
Tim Easterby (0-3-5) has seen 3 of his 5 runners make the frame while Reg Hollinshead (0-2-3) saddled Royal Cavalier to be placed twice from 3 runs in the race.
Racing Tactics
5 of 6 winners on good or firmer were held up in midfield or rear
3 of 4 winners on soft/heavy led or raced with leaders
Price
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were priced 11/1 or shorter
Horses prominent in the betting have done well in this with the last 9 winners coming from the first 6 in the betting.
Favourites (5-3-12) have a very strong record, having won 5 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 13.00.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 3 to 5
• Carrying 9-0 or more
• Officially rated 95 or higher
• Ran 4 to 7 times in 2011
• Finished in the first 4 last time
• Posted highest RPR in last 2 starts
• Won a race this season
• Run in 6 or fewer handicaps (no more than 11)
• Won over 1M 4F to 1M 6F
• Won a class 2 or 3 race (but no higher)
• Placed in Summer Stakes and/or Ebor H’cap
• Hold up horses favoured on fast ground
• Horses who race prominently favoured on softer
• Trained by Mark Johnston or Tim Easterby
• Priced 11/1 or shorter (favourite does well)
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 20
|
By:
I strongly fancied Bourne for this... then Cumani decided not to declare him
 |
|
By:
I had a decent bet on Kansai last year and I like his Zuider Zee here. 12 runs and the long straight, over this distance on this ground look optimum conditions. 9's looks good to me. I think 92 is still fair for this one.
|
|
By:
Zuider Zee
Also like the look of this one. Just taken 9`s - reckon it will end up a lot shorter. |
|
By:
Thanks for posting the trends Racecaller.
I fancy Gosden's other horse, Nehaam. Don't think he enjoyed the ground last time at York(needs fast ground). He'll stay no problem, and his penultimate run at Ascot was very good(also top weight). |
|
By:
Gosden only bothered about the ground for Zuider Zee. Any rain and Zuider Zee will be pulled but no mention on Nehaam.
|
|
By:
slightly OT but anyone know how you can find out which horses are balloted out of races like this - esp interested in the 12f h'cap at Ascot on Sat and whether Watered Silk was balloted out along with the Haggas horse.
|
|
By:
Zuider Zee cracking e/w chance if rain does stay away, likely to off about 11/2?
|
|
By:
Reefer, could you post Gosdens comment re Zuider Zee please ..
|
|
By:
here you go sint...
zuider zee has a cracking chance on saturday,whereas nehaam is a fat c unt and also a gayer..  |
|
By:
 lol Trev.I wonder if Mr Gosden is playing the Ground card again when he knows he's got a live one!! Zuider Zee though looking a little exposed is he not ? Dunno about him at the mo. |
|
By:
Zuider Zee is quite well in with a few in race BUT hasn't won this season (10/10)
Both Zeider Zee and Deaville Flyer have appeared difficult rides. Gosden should know where he stands as a result of his abundance of staying handicappers this year (Neeham, Investissement and Zeider Zee) and Michael Bell also (Prompter, Tactician and Activate) Deauville (5th)was fav for "Plate" last year when in good form from lower class races and finished 3rd this year. Shernando is improving rapidly but up in grade plus 9lb rise in weights. Ile De Re is pretty much unexposed in UK and 3lb better with Tominator when unable to get clear run at Chester. The interesting pointers are that when Ile De Re and Zeider Zee ran at Ascot in Shergar team races the new jockeys who rode seemed to get the best out of them. Hanagan (who has ridden Deaville Flyer) takes ride on Ile De Re for first time and similarly Gibbons first ride on Deauville Flyer. The stats indicate Ile De Re and Shernando as having best indicators. |
|
By:
Looking through the race a bit more there are a few more exposed than ZZ tbf.
|
|
By:
Johnny G is the daddy when it comes to training middle distance/staying types. This is Zuider Zee's optimum trip imho. Gosden got it wrong earlier in season, as did Buick, when they concluded ZZ wanted dig in the ground. He is clearly a top of the ground horse.
Wonder if they made the same mistake with Taqleed. Cannot wait to see Arctic Cosmos back on the racecourse this autumn and don't under-estimate Masked Marvel in next week's Leger. |
|
By:
ZZ will be pulled out...forecast is for heavy rain starting soon for 3 hours!
|
|
By:
No there isn't. Light showers. Haydock on edge of rain belt, nothing significant until 4pm. Clerk predicting 3mm all day, maximum
|
|
By:
the weather reports are conflicting and it was spitting rain earlier at the track. Just have to take our chances.
|
|
By:
Agree Sint'
Metcheck say nothing until around 4pm ? |
|
By:
I haven't counted up all the negatives per horse but the winner possibly had the most negatives.
Similar to Moyenne Corniche in Ebor. A new system is developing into backing the horse with the most negative race stats! Aged 3 to 5 Negatives - Bauer, Ajaan, Merchant of Dubai, Crackentorp • Carrying 9-0 or more Negatives – Crackentorp, Zeider Zee, Shernando, English Summer, Ashbrittle, Line of Duty, Nave, Exemplary • Officially rated 95 or higher (similar to above so could possibly disregard) Negatives, Ile De Re, Crackentorp, Zeider Zee, Shernando, English Summer, Ashbrittle, Line of Duty, Nave, Exemplary • Ran 4 to 7 times in 2011 Negatives – Nehaam, Bauer, Blissful Moment, Ajaan, Merchant of Dubai, Activate, Ashbrittle, Line of Duty • Finished in the first 4 last time Negatives – Nehaam, Bauer, Blissful Moment, Ajaan, Merchant of Dubai, English Summer, Ashbrittle, Exemplary • Posted highest RPR in last 2 starts Negatives – Nehaam, Bauer, Ajaan, Merchant of Dubai, Deauville Flyer, Crackentorp, English Summer, Nave, Exemplary • Won a race this season Negatives – Bauer, Blissfull Moment, Ajaan, Merchant of Dubai, Deauville Flyer, Zuider Zee, Ashbrittle, Nave • Run in 6 or fewer handicaps (no more than 11) Positives – Nehaam, Blissfull Moment, Ile De Re, Ashbrittle Negatives – (12 or more races) Bauer, Tominator, Ajaan, Merchant of Dubai, Deauville Flyer, Crackentorp, Nave, Exemplary • Won over 1M 4F to 1M 6F Negatives – Ile De Re (10f,11f,16f) Ashbrittle (11f 15f) • Won a class 2 or 3 race (but no higher) Negatives – Ashbrittle, Line of Duty, Nave, Exemplary (all no higher than class 4) Bauer (Listed & Grp3) • Placed in Summer Stakes and/or Ebor H’cap (Activate fell in Summer Stakes ) • Hold up horses favoured on fast ground • Horses who race prominently favoured on softer • Trained by Mark Johnston or Tim Easterby • Priced 11/1 or shorter (favourite does well) Winner was 16/1 |
|
By:
It was a race to buck all trends.
Also if the shtbag who gave me Shernando, as a can't lose, in the car park comes on here. Stupid Old Cnt, I'd best not see you again! |
|
By:
lol |