Horse Antepost
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The race all hinges around Seville and what he will do. No doubt he has the best form in the race and will have a pacemaker to tuck in
behind before making his challenge. This is where the problems start ,his over riding natural tendancy is to follow and he doesn't like
being in front. In the Dante he lugged in behind CH following him all the way to the line. New tactics were used in his last 2 races
all to no avail as he slowed late on to let one horse past both times. My guess is the same scenrio will happen again and he will
come second for the fifth time out of his last 6 starts.
Sea Moon could be anything and is difficult to assess of his Handicap win.
Namibians form looks solid and the horse is all guts. Johnston horses doesn't have a great record at the track, probably due to its flat nature. The bet has to be a Series of Straight Forcasts with Seville coming second in all of them.
behind before making his challenge. This is where the problems start ,his over riding natural tendancy is to follow and he doesn't like
being in front. In the Dante he lugged in behind CH following him all the way to the line. New tactics were used in his last 2 races
all to no avail as he slowed late on to let one horse past both times. My guess is the same scenrio will happen again and he will
come second for the fifth time out of his last 6 starts.
Sea Moon could be anything and is difficult to assess of his Handicap win.
Namibians form looks solid and the horse is all guts. Johnston horses doesn't have a great record at the track, probably due to its flat nature. The bet has to be a Series of Straight Forcasts with Seville coming second in all of them.
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fully agree. seville reminds me so much of midas touch, I think he is the classic horse you will go broke following (since he will invariably find "one too good.") The only way he can win is if Heffernan tries to make all and sets a fierce pace, but even so, he will always be a sitting duck for a dour stayer like Namibian with even a moderate turn of foot. Id do my ledger bets today, since I can't see him being fav tomorrow afternoon.
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I beg to disagree. There is probably nothing of the calibre of Carlton House, Treasure Beach or Meandre in the Great Voltigeur line-up and this is a great opportunity for Seville to put to bed the theory that he doesn't like to be in front and will always find one too good.
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Yep, no excuses for him tomorrow really. None.
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agree seville is a clear form pick..but he's too short for me to play..with him in the race ...leads me to think aidens other runner maybe overpriced @40s...think ascot may have been too far for him..and wonder if the field will be watching sevvy..and he may nick it from the front.
g/l.players |
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Hunters Light at 16/1 as opposed to Namibian at 4/1 with just under 2 lengths to make up on last meeting seems cracking price imho - especially with Dettori on board intead of Durcan...
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I'm with you Worcesterwilly. HL is far more lightly raced than Namibian and so the length and a half could be made up and then some just on that alone. He was staying on nicely in the Gordon in a slowly run race, there is sure to be a stronger pace on tomorrow although this should suit Namibian equally. If you watch the Gordon again you'll see that HL pulled for the first half of the race and if he can settle a little better then he must be value when compared with Namibian for this race. Also Frankie will be on this time as you say.
There is enough in the above to make the price look great value comapared with Namibian and whilst Seville is the horse to beat I really fancy HL will get Frankie flying tomorrow. Seville is a class horse but I'm not convinced he is as good over a mile and a half as he would be back at 10f (I'll prepare for a battering for that comment), his class might see him through but at 20ish plus on here Hunters Light is the bet for me. |
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The price discrepancy between Namibian and Hunter's Light is partly due to the fact that the latter is three pounds worse off (compared with the weights they carried in the Gordon Stakes) in addition to having 1½ lengths to make up on Namibian. Three pounds isn't a huge difference, but it's far from negligible in a 12f race (equivalent to a couple of lengths, I would say).
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Absolutely no excuses for Seville, but I can't believe he ran anywhere near his best today. Perhaps he has regressed. Either way, he's not one I'd be tempted to back in future (he was too short a price to back today). The winner is clearly a very smart horse.
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Seville is a hound.
Sea Moon is a very nice horse, and has the best trainer there is, but I think the race fell into his lap today and if he gets overbet and goes evens or shorter I might lay him at Donnie. |
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You will go skint backing front runners who have a habit of finishing second whilst not having easy races
For those who think i aftertime, this was posted on facebook this morning Nick Davis Cheers Lee, its on the Theory that both Seville and Namibian have never had an easy race this year, its going to catch up with them, if not today then at Town Moor, knowing Stoutes Modus Operandi there could be any amount of improvement, rfc with Al Kazeem |
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At this time of year it's often a tough call deciding whether to stick with proven top-class Group race performers like Seville (who may have had hard races against classy opposition) or to put your faith in unexposed types that are taking a leap from maiden/handicap company. Well done zilzal1 on making the right call! It was a no-bet race for me, as I wasn't prepared to oppose Seville but couldn't make the leap of faith required to back anything else...
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Same for me. Was hoping Seville would win for my TTF points but had no intention of backing him. He might be done for the season now.
Interesting that Frankie, who rode in the first two races, thinks the ground is more testing than advertised. |
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wd Zilzal
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Seriously impressive performance. Travelled well and quickened. The form looks rock solid. Seville looked in
mint condition pre-race and if you take Sea Moon out of the race he ran a very similar race to his last 2 runs ,leading 1 f out before being overhauled inside the final furlong. The ideal race for Sea Moon is the big 1 1/2m race on Dubai world cup night, the same one Rewilding won last year.The flat long straights will be ideal. He has a lot of filling out to do and can only improve; could be a very difficult horse to beat next year. |