Horse Antepost
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The Gr.2 Lowther Stakes at York (18 August) is traditionally an important pointer to the 1000 Guineas and has produced three winners of the classic in the last 17 years: Harayir (1995), Cape Verdi (1998) and Russian Rhythm (2002). In addition, two other winners of the Lowther during the same period were strong fancies for the Guineas but were forced to miss the race through injury (Bint Allayl and Queen’s Logic, both trained by Mick Channon), while another of Channon’s Lowther winners (Nahoodh) was arguably an unlucky loser in the Guineas in 2008.
On the downside, plenty of Lowther winners have been beaten in the Guineas: in the last 25 years the list includes Polonia (4th), Ela Romara (9th), Only Yours (5th), Culture Vulture (5th), Niche (2nd), Velvet Moon (5th), Dance Sequence (6th), Bianca Nera (11th), Enthused (5th), Carry On Katie (6th), Flashy Wings (11th), Nahoodh (5th), Hooray (8th). But whenever a filly that is bred to be a miler wins the Lowther in clear-cut fashion it must be given serious consideration as a genuine Guineas contender.
The Lowther is a good race for fancied runners (17 of the last 26 winners of the race started at odds of 3/1 or shorter) and tends to be won by a filly that has already run in pattern company (19 of the last 26 winners of the race had already run in a Group or Listed race). The key trial races are the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes, the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes and the Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes. This year the fillies to concentrate on are: Gamilati (Mahmood Al Zarooni), Angels Will Fall (B.Hills), Best Terms (R.Hannon), Fire Lily (D.Wachman), Inetrobil (K.Ryan) and Shumoos (B.Meehan).
Barry Hills won the Lowther with Silk Blossom in 2006 and has a live contender in the shape of Angels Will Fall, who is unbeaten in two starts including the Princess Margaret Stakes. Form lines involving Betty Fontaine and Regal Realm suggest that Angels Will Fall just about has the beating of Gamilati at the weights and although the Ascot form looked rather shaky at the time it reads rather better now in the light of the subsequent efforts of the third Miss Lahar (who won her maiden by 8 lengths and then ran well in the St Hugh’s Stakes) and fourth Luv U Forever (runner-up in a Listed race in France). Angels Will Fall has loads of speed and a telling turn of foot and is my idea of the likely winner.
Godolphin have never won the Lowther but they have a live contender this time with the Cherry Hinton winner Gamilati, who shoulders a 3lb penalty for that Gr.2 win. She travelled like a class filly on that occasion and quickened well to win comfortably. She sets a high standard and if she has improved since Newmarket she will be hard to beat even under her penalty. It looked a high class renewal of the Cherry Hinton beforehand, but subsequent events have cast doubt on the strength of the form:
2nd (1½l) Russelliana (RPR 104): next time 6th of 7 (beaten 11½l) in Princess Margaret Stakes (RPR 73)
6th (3½l) Illaunglass (RPR 97): next time 8th of 9 (beaten 23l) in Sweet Solera Stakes (RPR 53)
7th (5l) Betty Fontaine (RPR 93): next time ran well to be 4th (beaten 4½l) in Princess Margaret Stakes (RPR 90) but then 9th of 12 (beaten 11l) in St Hugh’s Stakes (RPR 60)
8th (5l) Caledonia Lady (RPR 93): next time 3rd of 6 (beaten 2l) in Ffos Las maiden (RPR 73)
9th (6l) Miss Work Of Art (RPR 90): next time 9th of 13 (beaten nearly 6l) in Molecomb Stakes (RPR 82)
11th (13½l) Pink Sapphire (RPR 68): next time last of 7 (beaten 14l) in Star Stakes (RPR 64) and then 5th of 7 (beaten 9l) in Haydock nursery off a mark of 78 (RPR 57)
The Cherry Hinton form ties in at various points with the Queen Mary, Albany Stakes and Princess Margaret Stakes form and it’s quite possible that none of the early season 5-6f Group race performers will turn out to be anything special. Clearly there were excuses for the likes of Russelliana and Illaunglass in their subsequent races, but it’s worrying for Gamilati supporters all the same. Of the four Group races referred to above, the Albany Stakes form looks the most solid and I look forward to Samitar’s next race with considerable interest.
On the face of it there is no good reason why either Shumoos or Inetrobil should reverse the Cherry Hinton form with Gamilati, although they are entitled to finish a bit closer this time at the weights. There is a suspicion that Shumoos, who was so impressive when trouncing Frederick Engels on debut, is capable of better than she has shown in her last two races. She is effectively a Group 2 winner without a penalty, having been beaten a short head in the Queen Mary, and could play a major part if she can learn to settle better and preserve her energy for a final furlong kick. Brian Meehan knows what is required to win a Lowther, having won the race two years ago with Lady Of The Desert. Best Terms is well thought of and has to be respected in light of the trainer’s record in this race (three wins since 1990), but you’d have to think that Shumoos should be able to reverse the Queen Mary form with Richard Hannon’s filly, who carries a penalty and who looked quite a small speedy type at Ascot. Inetrobil is certainly capable of taking a hand in the finish if ridden with a bit more patience, but this 6f trip is as far as she will want to go.
The Irish filly Fire Lily, who has 1½ lengths to find with Best Terms and Shumoos on the Queen Mary form, improved for the step up to 6f last time when she won the Gr.3 Anglesey Stakes quite impressively. That form doesn’t look terribly strong, however - the runner-up After finished last (beaten about 6 lengths) behind La Collina in the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes and the third Boris Grigoriev finished 8th of 13 (beaten 5½ lengths) next time behind Requinto in the Molecomb – and Fire Lily has a little bit to find.
Maiden winners have tended to struggle in this race when thrown in at the deep end against proven Group race performers. Lady Gorgeous (M.Channon) represents a stable that has won this race four times in the last 14 years but the form of her Newbury maiden win hasn’t worked out too well and considerably more is needed here. Hello Glory (D.Simcock) shaped with promise on debut behind Desert Gazelle and then won a traditionally strong maiden at Ascot in very good style (the second and third have won since); Jamie Spencer has chosen to ride her in preference to Lady Gorgeous. Sunday Times (P.Chapple-Hyam) was a very easy winner of an auction maiden at Goodwood last week but the form is very modest and it would be a major upset if she could get involved in the finish here.
Verdict: there is not a lot to choose between the best 5-6f fillies so far this season and Angels Will Fall is a tentative selection. The only ones that might possibly develop into Guineas fillies (based on pedigree and style of racing), though, are Gamilati, Fire Lily and possibly Shumoos.
On the downside, plenty of Lowther winners have been beaten in the Guineas: in the last 25 years the list includes Polonia (4th), Ela Romara (9th), Only Yours (5th), Culture Vulture (5th), Niche (2nd), Velvet Moon (5th), Dance Sequence (6th), Bianca Nera (11th), Enthused (5th), Carry On Katie (6th), Flashy Wings (11th), Nahoodh (5th), Hooray (8th). But whenever a filly that is bred to be a miler wins the Lowther in clear-cut fashion it must be given serious consideration as a genuine Guineas contender.
The Lowther is a good race for fancied runners (17 of the last 26 winners of the race started at odds of 3/1 or shorter) and tends to be won by a filly that has already run in pattern company (19 of the last 26 winners of the race had already run in a Group or Listed race). The key trial races are the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes, the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes and the Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes. This year the fillies to concentrate on are: Gamilati (Mahmood Al Zarooni), Angels Will Fall (B.Hills), Best Terms (R.Hannon), Fire Lily (D.Wachman), Inetrobil (K.Ryan) and Shumoos (B.Meehan).
Barry Hills won the Lowther with Silk Blossom in 2006 and has a live contender in the shape of Angels Will Fall, who is unbeaten in two starts including the Princess Margaret Stakes. Form lines involving Betty Fontaine and Regal Realm suggest that Angels Will Fall just about has the beating of Gamilati at the weights and although the Ascot form looked rather shaky at the time it reads rather better now in the light of the subsequent efforts of the third Miss Lahar (who won her maiden by 8 lengths and then ran well in the St Hugh’s Stakes) and fourth Luv U Forever (runner-up in a Listed race in France). Angels Will Fall has loads of speed and a telling turn of foot and is my idea of the likely winner.
Godolphin have never won the Lowther but they have a live contender this time with the Cherry Hinton winner Gamilati, who shoulders a 3lb penalty for that Gr.2 win. She travelled like a class filly on that occasion and quickened well to win comfortably. She sets a high standard and if she has improved since Newmarket she will be hard to beat even under her penalty. It looked a high class renewal of the Cherry Hinton beforehand, but subsequent events have cast doubt on the strength of the form:
2nd (1½l) Russelliana (RPR 104): next time 6th of 7 (beaten 11½l) in Princess Margaret Stakes (RPR 73)
6th (3½l) Illaunglass (RPR 97): next time 8th of 9 (beaten 23l) in Sweet Solera Stakes (RPR 53)
7th (5l) Betty Fontaine (RPR 93): next time ran well to be 4th (beaten 4½l) in Princess Margaret Stakes (RPR 90) but then 9th of 12 (beaten 11l) in St Hugh’s Stakes (RPR 60)
8th (5l) Caledonia Lady (RPR 93): next time 3rd of 6 (beaten 2l) in Ffos Las maiden (RPR 73)
9th (6l) Miss Work Of Art (RPR 90): next time 9th of 13 (beaten nearly 6l) in Molecomb Stakes (RPR 82)
11th (13½l) Pink Sapphire (RPR 68): next time last of 7 (beaten 14l) in Star Stakes (RPR 64) and then 5th of 7 (beaten 9l) in Haydock nursery off a mark of 78 (RPR 57)
The Cherry Hinton form ties in at various points with the Queen Mary, Albany Stakes and Princess Margaret Stakes form and it’s quite possible that none of the early season 5-6f Group race performers will turn out to be anything special. Clearly there were excuses for the likes of Russelliana and Illaunglass in their subsequent races, but it’s worrying for Gamilati supporters all the same. Of the four Group races referred to above, the Albany Stakes form looks the most solid and I look forward to Samitar’s next race with considerable interest.
On the face of it there is no good reason why either Shumoos or Inetrobil should reverse the Cherry Hinton form with Gamilati, although they are entitled to finish a bit closer this time at the weights. There is a suspicion that Shumoos, who was so impressive when trouncing Frederick Engels on debut, is capable of better than she has shown in her last two races. She is effectively a Group 2 winner without a penalty, having been beaten a short head in the Queen Mary, and could play a major part if she can learn to settle better and preserve her energy for a final furlong kick. Brian Meehan knows what is required to win a Lowther, having won the race two years ago with Lady Of The Desert. Best Terms is well thought of and has to be respected in light of the trainer’s record in this race (three wins since 1990), but you’d have to think that Shumoos should be able to reverse the Queen Mary form with Richard Hannon’s filly, who carries a penalty and who looked quite a small speedy type at Ascot. Inetrobil is certainly capable of taking a hand in the finish if ridden with a bit more patience, but this 6f trip is as far as she will want to go.
The Irish filly Fire Lily, who has 1½ lengths to find with Best Terms and Shumoos on the Queen Mary form, improved for the step up to 6f last time when she won the Gr.3 Anglesey Stakes quite impressively. That form doesn’t look terribly strong, however - the runner-up After finished last (beaten about 6 lengths) behind La Collina in the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes and the third Boris Grigoriev finished 8th of 13 (beaten 5½ lengths) next time behind Requinto in the Molecomb – and Fire Lily has a little bit to find.
Maiden winners have tended to struggle in this race when thrown in at the deep end against proven Group race performers. Lady Gorgeous (M.Channon) represents a stable that has won this race four times in the last 14 years but the form of her Newbury maiden win hasn’t worked out too well and considerably more is needed here. Hello Glory (D.Simcock) shaped with promise on debut behind Desert Gazelle and then won a traditionally strong maiden at Ascot in very good style (the second and third have won since); Jamie Spencer has chosen to ride her in preference to Lady Gorgeous. Sunday Times (P.Chapple-Hyam) was a very easy winner of an auction maiden at Goodwood last week but the form is very modest and it would be a major upset if she could get involved in the finish here.
Verdict: there is not a lot to choose between the best 5-6f fillies so far this season and Angels Will Fall is a tentative selection. The only ones that might possibly develop into Guineas fillies (based on pedigree and style of racing), though, are Gamilati, Fire Lily and possibly Shumoos.
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Replies: 14
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I agree with your conclusion on Angels Will Fall. Not sure what price she is but I may back her eachway.
I thought Best Terms was having a crack at the Nunthorpe ? I've gone right off Shumoos, being ponied to the start last time, is a big negative. But hope she can bounce back. |
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A great write up James, and hard to argue with your conclusion.
Hopefully they will get no more rain in York and if it no worse than Good, I can see Shumoos getting back to winning ways on a flat track. As I said on the 1000 Guineas thread, though it wasn't a pattern race, her demolition of Frederick Engels still rates as good a performance put up by any of these fillies. Will only play to small stakes, far too open to be confident. |
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At 5/1 with 3.65 im happy to back Barry Hills' runner eachway. She won with ease underfoot last time so that wont be any problem should there be a bit more rain.
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Great stuff jamesp. Im gonna give Shumoos another chance here, thought she pulled too hard in the Cherry hinton.Also that day, there was a a favoured strip under the stands rail that Dettori exploited superbly. 11/2 is very fair imo.
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At the odds available I think that Inetrobil is considerably overpriced. She is held by both Gamilati and Shumoos on Cherry Hinton form, but her earlier second in the Albany Stakes gives her every chance, especially if ridden with a bit more patience than at Newmarket. I wasn't intending to back her, but at 20+ on here she was simply too tempting to resist (she's only 10/1-12/1 with the bookmakers). The flat track and good (or good to soft) ground should suit her ideally.
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Excellent write up. Hello Glory for me, that last run has worked out well adnd she has form on GD-Sft. She could be a class filly.
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Agreed, superb analysis. Your a credit to the forum James.
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Excellent write up but I will side with GAMILATI
If Discourse was in this race it would be ODDS ON - Gamilati's form with Discourse is rock solid and at that point the yard thought Gamilati the better horse - the comparison with the Hills horse and Gamilati seems to be through Stoutes Russeliana yet when it ran v the Hills horse (Russeliana) ran just too bad to be true and was eased considerably. Therefore it is Gamilati for me! |
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I've not used Russelliana as a guide, I've used Betty Fontaine, who was beaten by a similar margin in both the Cherry Hinton (behind Gamilati) and the Princess Margaret (behind Angels Will Fall). Gamilati was also beaten narrowly by Regal Realm on debut, and the latter was runner-up to Angels Will Fall at Ascot. So the Hills filly just about has the edge on form.
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jamesp - understand what you are saying...
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The winner does not appear to be in the antepost market for the 2012 1000 guineas, surely connections will at least be considering her for that now.
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very disappoing from Angels Will Fall. Massively kean early on which helped not one bit.
Winner was very quick. |
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Several fillies appeared to under-perform. Perhaps there is some truth in Frankie's comments that the ground was 'sticky' and may have contributed not only to Gamilati's poor effort but to several other indifferent displays besides. Take nothing away from the winner, she's clearly a fast and talented filly and she will now take some beating in the Cheveley Park Stakes. To be honest, I've more or less given up on the 5-6f juvenile fillies this season, I don't think they're a terribly good bunch.
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I've only watched it the once but the third Hello Glory seemed to stay on nicely and looks a reasonable prospect to me (not saying she'll win the Guineas). But she could be the sort to win something like the Rockfel at a reasonable price as she should be suited by the trip/track at this stage I'd have thought.
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