Horse Antepost
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With the magic sign offering 6/1,Anybody else think he is hugely overpriced for the Geoffrey Freer stakes at Newbury tomorrow,thought he would be about the 3/1 favorite myself.
Only thing i can think of is that is an over reaction to a bad ride he was given in germany last time out and a disregard to the german form by the bookies or the fact that they believe he may not get the trip.
this looks a very winable race for him,the favorite Meeznah is an average mare and has to give a massive 11 pounds to this still improving colt,Census is ahead of BP in the betting,yet he put a 6 length beating on him at royal ascot,
Only thing i can think of is that is an over reaction to a bad ride he was given in germany last time out and a disregard to the german form by the bookies or the fact that they believe he may not get the trip.
this looks a very winable race for him,the favorite Meeznah is an average mare and has to give a massive 11 pounds to this still improving colt,Census is ahead of BP in the betting,yet he put a 6 length beating on him at royal ascot,
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Meeznah better than average imo. She ran Snow Fairy close in the Oaks which is the best form on offer.
Brown Panther has been winning handicaps, albeit impressively.
Brown Panther has been winning handicaps, albeit impressively.
but that 11 pounds is huge,she would have to be very special to give him that and she is not
it's WFA though isn't it ..
Meeznah needs quick ground, if it gets easy side of good it would lessen her chances, and favour BP.
Meeznah needs quick ground, if it gets easy side of good it would lessen her chances, and favour BP.
it is WFA,but it makes a lot more difference than people seem to think it does
just a word of caution for those fancying Census in this,Hughes will put up a pound or two overweight
TFM
If Brown Panther returns to his Ascot form I reckon he will easily dismiss this lot. I have him 9lbs ahead and I can't really see any of the others improving by that much. I didn't back him in Germany simply because I don't like betting against runners I don't know enough about but I'm sure that wasn't his true running. I'm not sure if I would blame the ride though, the horse seemed to be travelling comfortably early on and didn't appear to be doing too much. It's just a question of whether we can forgive BP that one blip or has the horse just lost its form.
If Brown Panther returns to his Ascot form I reckon he will easily dismiss this lot. I have him 9lbs ahead and I can't really see any of the others improving by that much. I didn't back him in Germany simply because I don't like betting against runners I don't know enough about but I'm sure that wasn't his true running. I'm not sure if I would blame the ride though, the horse seemed to be travelling comfortably early on and didn't appear to be doing too much. It's just a question of whether we can forgive BP that one blip or has the horse just lost its form.
I cant for one minute believe he has just lost his form,i think it was just a poorer run that could be attributed to many factors,such as travelling and racing abroad for the first time,the very heavy ground,possibly the jockey setting to quick of a pace for the horse in such heavy conditions,
Have not backed him yet this season,but have backed him for tomorrow and feel confident you will see the horse we seen at Haydock and Ascot
Have not backed him yet this season,but have backed him for tomorrow and feel confident you will see the horse we seen at Haydock and Ascot
Looking at the time of the German race I can't think it could've been much softer than the ground he handled so well at Ascot. I think the travelling could possibly be a valid excuse. It was also interesting that Ger Lyons apparently had commented that he thought he was reappearing too soon after losing so much weight after Ascot, although, I had also seen a comment from Dascombe saying he had regained all the lost weight.
There has to be a doubt that Dascombe will have him 100% with his main aim the leger only being a few weeks
away. His performance in Germany could be put down to Heavy ground, not many horses like that sort of ground.
He has a big roundy old action and will need some give underfoot, Newbury is a poor track for giving
accurate going reports, but there is rain about. This isn't the best of races and the WFA concessions
means it could be looked at as a Handicap. His Ascot performance stands out and the doubts about his fitness
and the ground are ampley catered for in the 6/1 price.
away. His performance in Germany could be put down to Heavy ground, not many horses like that sort of ground.
He has a big roundy old action and will need some give underfoot, Newbury is a poor track for giving
accurate going reports, but there is rain about. This isn't the best of races and the WFA concessions
means it could be looked at as a Handicap. His Ascot performance stands out and the doubts about his fitness
and the ground are ampley catered for in the 6/1 price.
He handled soft ground well at Ascot but he also handled good to firm ground at Chester and Haydock. Haydock was described as good for 7f+ but the distances had been extended slightly and the times point to good to firm ground. Admittedly the Chester race was against much worse opposition but the Haydock win was very good and hinted that he was even better than the bare form. The ground wouldn't worry me at all. As far as I'm concerned it's just a matter of taking a chance on him still being the same horse as at Ascot and, as you say, the price allows for any doubts.
At Haydock they put a lot of sand down on the round track making it easier on horses who hit the ground hard.
With rain having fallen overnight its difficult to believe the ground will ride any faster than good plus
connections don't seem concerned about his fitness. No excuses today, lets hope he does the business.
With rain having fallen overnight its difficult to believe the ground will ride any faster than good plus
connections don't seem concerned about his fitness. No excuses today, lets hope he does the business.
Looked like he needed the race quite a bit.
I expect him to reverse that form at doncaster.
I expect him to reverse that form at doncaster.
Was on the Brown Panther,Excelebration double at nice prices but not to be today,from an early stage he did not seem to be ever travelling quite so well as he has in previous races,but i believe he was fit and well and perhaps just beaten by an improving horse,no excuses from me,although i think he can do better
Census looks an eachway bet to nothing in the Leger around 8/1, imo. He was impressive and is swiftly on an upward curve.
There was something about Brown Panthers manourisms which put me off today. On the way down to the start he had his head really low to the ground. I hate it when they do that and not often a good sign.
There was something about Brown Panthers manourisms which put me off today. On the way down to the start he had his head really low to the ground. I hate it when they do that and not often a good sign.
I was on him too, no excuses. I reckon he ran about a pound below his Ascot win but basically he ran to form. He was just beaten by an improver, I've lost count of my bets that have been scuppered over the years by such a Hannon improver. Likewise, it would not surprise me in the least if the winner failed to show anything like the same form next time out, so neither horse appeals to me for the Leger.
Brown panther looked very fit pre -race and possibly a little tucked up. Had everychance and wasn't good
enough. He's very unlikely to improve in the leger and could easily go backwards.If he was mine I'd save
him for any group races over 1 1/2m in the Autumn.
enough. He's very unlikely to improve in the leger and could easily go backwards.If he was mine I'd save
him for any group races over 1 1/2m in the Autumn.
I'd save him for next year i he were mine, he's done enough this season.
I thought he ran a great race. He came to challenge from a very uncompromising position and did well to get as close as he did. Census clearly had the run of the race. Would back Brown Panther to reverse the form in the Leger given good ground or softer.
I dont get a lot of people on here.He won a unusually fast run race at Ascot,got beat in Germany,Nothing to do with the ground,but most to do with the unpredictable slow pace [trainers ran ,but didnt use their pacemakers!!??!!]Yesterday he got his good gallop that he needed and got beat fair and square.
He may find it difficult in future as a lot of Group/listed races are generally run at a slow pace esp as they dont normally attract a lot of runners,i.e.King George.
Suggest you find the next uneposed horse thats likely to be better value.
He may find it difficult in future as a lot of Group/listed races are generally run at a slow pace esp as they dont normally attract a lot of runners,i.e.King George.
Suggest you find the next uneposed horse thats likely to be better value.
I thought it looked a good race back after a break. Thought with a more entreprising ride he would have gone very close and feel he will do fine in the ledger.
totally agree Angel - as a Leger prep, it was ideal. I'd started to lose faith in the horse after he lost in Germany but his run on Sat makes me think he's very solid e/w in the Leger.
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