Horse Antepost
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Goldi 5/6
Mutual Trust 5/1
Dick Turpin 8/1
Sahpresa 10/1
12/1 bar
Fancy Sahpresa to get revenger here .. too far off the pace in France lto, ridden more prominantly she should bustle up Goldi. No idea why there is such a big discrepancy in their prices when there was officially a neck between them last time.
Sahpresa also slammed Moonlight Cloud earlier in the season which looks top class form now ..
Mutual Trust 5/1
Dick Turpin 8/1
Sahpresa 10/1
12/1 bar
Fancy Sahpresa to get revenger here .. too far off the pace in France lto, ridden more prominantly she should bustle up Goldi. No idea why there is such a big discrepancy in their prices when there was officially a neck between them last time.
Sahpresa also slammed Moonlight Cloud earlier in the season which looks top class form now ..
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prices with blu sqr
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Not a chance,Peslier was just coasting with her sin,he put the race to bed in a matter of strides and took it easy on her,he just made a mistake of assuming there was nothing coming at her in the finish.
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possibly TFM.
5/6 vs 10/1 though ? She'd better be running!  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Been wanting to see Planteur over a mile. Plenty of toe - 14/1 could be big. Immortal Verse is a tremdnous filly too and will go close if she's ok. This is a long way from being a Goldi cakewalk imo.
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'tremendous'
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agree Headmaster, if all those line up I reckon she could get turn over.
I cant get Sahpresa's comfortable defeat of Moonlight Cloud out of my mind, at 10/1 she is a must bet for me. Any word from connections in France ..? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Dick Turpin was right back to his best last time and could still be improving - he looks better value than Mutual Trust at the odds, provided he gets some cut in the ground. Immortal Verse is a fast improving filly and could spring a surprise. I'm not convinced that Sahpresa's Prix du Palais Royal victory over Moonlight Cloud is good enough form - the latter appeared to run lengths better in the Prix Maurice de Gheest last time (using Evaporation as a guide).
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Like you James I think MT has it to do. Dangerous to dismiss an unbeaten Fabre 3-y-o obviously but no value there imo. Unlike you I'm not convinced DT has shown enough (for quite a while) to win this. Not ruling out the Italian horse by any stretch, but I've always been an Immortal Verse believer and also think Planteur is very interesting over 8f.
While we're on Deauville, here are the Guillaume D'Ornano decs. Looks a very warm Group 2 to these eyes: GLASWEGIAN RED DUBAWI DUNBOYNE EXPRESS WALDPARK COLOMBIAN SLOW PACE GOLDEN LILAC GALIKOVA | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Not after GOLDEN LILAC and GALIKOVA are declared non runners
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WALDPARK [:p][:p][:p][:p][:p][:p]
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Cant see myself backing Goldi at the prices with a couple of dangers in this race,
Think the play is Worthaad each way or in a market without Goldikova,Travelled and looked a high class colt in the Lockinge,was very impressed with him that day,take out Canford and he would have been an impressive winner,been waiting for him to run since that day and think the 12/1 is more than fair | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The more I think about this, the more the 14/1 Planteur looks massive. Have read two previews from France now and both have him as the danger to Goldi. The turfistes have a lot of respect for him too and I can see him going off 2nd fav. Ground should be right up his street. Drop in trip a plus.
Head says he might pull the favourite if the ground turns too soft. Hoping he doesn't as that's some R4 to absorb. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Aren't they AP terms ? Will have to check my bet.
Was there any update you read re Sahpresa please ? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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think Roger Charlton said today Cityscape will run.
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Still AP rules at this stage,no R4 will apply and unless the ground is very soft or heavy Goldi will still run,as for Planteur,love him to bits,follow him alot,but we see top horses now and again stepping down from 10f to a mile and it never works out,its a huge ask for him,he does have a nice turn of foot but i cant see him making an impact over a mile against some of these,another note is that the trainer loves him and always makes huge statements going into his races about how brilliant he is and that he thinks he will win evey race before its even run
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Can't see how this is an ante-post market. The race declared today, which is why Blu went up. There was never an ante-post market on the Marois.
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Goldikova is very beatable over a straight mile if the grounds soft as makfi showed when easily beating her
in this race last year. Dick Turpin and Cityscope would be the posible ones to take advantage if these condition arose, with preference to Cityscope as DT has become inconsistent. Does anyone Know when the race is due to take place? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I've backed Cityscape @ 20s as there looks like plenty of rain in forecast next 48 hours for northern France. Really hot race though with lots of horses I like, Goldi too short but will go off odds on on PMU for sure
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it was very very soft last year when Makfi beat her and he was a brilliant horse in those conditions tinkler,she will not run if the ground is in that state again,but it will take alot of rain from now and then to get like that,would not put anybody off cityscape but DT could never beat her even on soft and even if he put up his best effort and the race is live on ATR at 2:55 on monday
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It always seems tempting to oppose Goldikova as she's usually goes off at a short price and is continually
getting older. The problem is she keeps on winning and rarely loses , so its difficult to say evens is a poor price. Unless the ground is genuinely soft I wouldn't be to keen on looking to oppose her. I agree that Worthadd is an interesting runner, if he can avoid getting into a battle with Glk's pacemakers and the grounds decent he could be difficult to peg back for all bar Goldikova. If the ground was as fast as it was at Newbury he would be very interesting at 12/1. Getting an accurate going report from France isn't easy , so I doubt its a race I'll get involved in. Good luck. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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"V soft ground", according to Roger Charlton on Twitter this morning.
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Cityscape has to be great e/w value in this. Goldie won't be at her best on soft and is beatable in such conditions as Makfi showed. Perfect conditions for Cityscape - not going to dry out much in next day. Deauville hit by loads of rain yesterday.
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Think Goldikova will go fine on the soft - Makfi would have won whatever the conditions - Goldi and Paco Boy ran to form in last year's race.
Suprised to see this being run on a Monday btw. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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F.Head has said on many occasions that soft blunts her speed and not her ideal conditions.
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yes that what he says but she has performed very well on it in the past.
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soft ground blunts every horse's speed
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French Bank Holiday on Monday, AT.
Apologies if I'm boring anyone but I cannot find a French preview that doesn't have Planteur as the main threat and I agree with all of them. Any French punter worth his salt would be all in Planteur at 14/1. Win, lose or draw this really is a massive price, as I'm sure the PMU will reveal tomorrow afternoon. (been keeping an eye out for anything on Saphresa and little said so far, sint) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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14/1 looks good valure for a place - can't see how Planteur can possibly win it though against proven milers
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no worries Headmaster. I was just concerned whether or not she would line up but she has been declared now so that is all I was looking for.
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Other horses act on it far better though A_T
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Goldikova
Worthaad Cityscape there is the tricast for you  just thank me after the race | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Going described as 'heavy' there today. A day of dry weather will probably make it more testing.
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did not look to bad watching todays racing,hardly any kickback or anything and the sky was blue,Cirrus des aigles romped home so the class horses will get through it fine
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not sure they'll be getting through it as easily tomorrow. Cirrus d.a. a proven mudlark. More telling that Poet tried to do his usual front-run and was spent before the finish having gone too quick.
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just looked genuine soft to me today certainly not heavy
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Times also indicate just soft, nowhere near heavy.
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maybe not heavy but holding soft ground is not Goldie's cup of tea. I'm her biggest fan but simply not her conditions and do not see Evens as value.
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Best Race of the year so far. Not been one that i would have so many 120+ rated horses.
This is my ratings opinion of what the odds should be
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If this was the Goldikova of previous years then I'd be backing her but I believe she has to be opposed this time. She's obviously still very good but she hasn't shown me the same brilliance of the previous two years, therefore the race is much tighter than the betting suggests. On this year's figures at the weights I have
Tin Horse 101 Mutual Trust 100 Immortal Verse 99 Goldikova 98 Dick Turpin 98 Even though Tin Horse narrowly tops my ratings and had a possible stamina excuse last time he doesn't appeal to me as I'm not convinced he will repeat his French Guineas form. Dick Turpin would be in with a shout if he's back to his best but it's difficult to judge if that's the case on his latest effort. I was quite impressed with Mutual Trust's Gp3 win, he then followed up by battling well to win the Prix Jean Prat, he showed versatility as that was a slowly run affair. As long as those races haven't taken too much out of him then he should go very close. Immortal Verse was impressive at Ascot and while that performance wasn't quite as good as the colts I can see no obvious reason why she shouldn't run a big race here. Betting on two horses in the same race isn't the usual way I operate but with such narrow margins between the main contenders and great value to be had I'm backing Mutual Trust and Immortal Verse to beat the great mare. |