Horse Antepost
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The race has a few front runners and isn't easy to assess which will be quick enough to lead. the front runners include Bapak Chinto,
Captain Dunne, Piccadily filly, ,Lexi's hero,Margot Did,Inxile . If a few of these stand their ground then a fast pace is assured.
A lot of the horses look to have similar ability the 2 that have potential are Bapak Chinto and Hoof it. The ability of Bapak Chinto
looks very difficult to assess on what he's done on the track and I get the impression he is such a short price on his home work.
He's not a horse I could back. Hoof it could be significantly better than these and must have a strong chance of completing the
double Coastal Bluff did. Unfortunately he's become quite a short price and I'm unsure if he is now at a backable price.
Captain Dunne, Piccadily filly, ,Lexi's hero,Margot Did,Inxile . If a few of these stand their ground then a fast pace is assured.
A lot of the horses look to have similar ability the 2 that have potential are Bapak Chinto and Hoof it. The ability of Bapak Chinto
looks very difficult to assess on what he's done on the track and I get the impression he is such a short price on his home work.
He's not a horse I could back. Hoof it could be significantly better than these and must have a strong chance of completing the
double Coastal Bluff did. Unfortunately he's become quite a short price and I'm unsure if he is now at a backable price.
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Loads of rain around at the moment but the track does drain well.
Cant have Sole Power on his last run, even if it was a prep. I like Bapak Chinta with all the allowances at thi stgae and Bated Breath was the other but he must have Fast ground to be at his best and he may miss the race now due to a foot problem. |
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Prohibit @ 10/1 looks overpriced to me - has there been some negative vibes/news?
Very consistent these days and has won the King Stand which is the only other major 5f race in England. The faster the pace the better for him as my only worry would be that on fast ground he might find York's easy 5f too sharp. |
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The performance Hoof It put up last time was easily good enough to take an average running of this. However, if Bapak Chinta remains in the same form as at Ascot then Hoof It would need to improve again. If Bapak Chinta has actually improved since then then it will be virtually impossible for the older horses to beat him on these terms, in my view.
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I agree with Figgis.
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Is Bated Breath still doubtful - no money to back him on here and drifted to nearly 10s...? Weather looks fine this week - expect ground to dry out to good by start of Ebor meeting.
Bated Breath the value bet e/w for me - assuming he's going to run. |
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I walked the course today after last nights deluge and it was still no worse than good ground down the straight, so no worries for the 7f or less races. Was pretty soft on the turn as it sweeps past Knavesmire Woods (6f - 7.5f) as per. This is where most of the drainage work has been carried out and the track widened in order to pick the best of the ground on any given day, nonetheless, in 20 years of walking the course a minimum of 3 times a week, it has never been as firm on that section than the rest of the course. They just can't seem to get it right. Oddly, despite the fact that there is a slight camber from the outside inwards, the better ground is down the inner at the moment.
The good news is that the sun is now shining and it's blowing pretty hard, if it carries on like this they'll be watering the straight after racing tomorrow!!! |
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Bapak NR
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Hardly a drop of rain will hit York over next few days, according to latest weather forecasts which makes Bated Breath the value bet imho.
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Was surprised at the official description to be honest and expect it to change by the end of racing. There is barely any juice in the ground, other than the top bend, and it's sunny and breezy right now.
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9-11 is a big weight for any flat horse to carry yet here we have a Group 1 race in which half the field
are being asked to carry such a weight. Those that are big strong and powerful will have a significant advantage compared to if there was a 9 stone upper limit. Hoof it is an enormously powerful horse for whom 9-11 will have little effect to such an extent that those lower weighted will be virtually competing off level weights. Drawn middlish with pacesetters around him he looks to have a massive chance. Physically pre-race at goodwood he looked a better horse than he did the week before at York and it looks like he's improving all the time to me. 7/2 isn't a fantastic price but I cann't see past him and will be backing him. Of the others i like Bated Breath but he's a 6f horse not a fast 5f one plus 9-11 is a problem for him. prohibit is a difficult horse to win with but is very strong and the weight will be fine. Masamah has adjustable speed and should run well. |
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Sole Power e/w for me.
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Sole Power = Non runner.
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Charlton has stated 5 furlongs is absolutely fine for Bated Breath and he's the best sprinter he has trained. Can the ground remain on the slow side given another drying day? Surely not and it'll ride good tomorrow. Bated Breath stunning e/w value up against a fav that has only proved himself a top class handicapper so far.
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The going des was changed to Good, GS in places after the 4.15 today, but there is some rain up north tonight ..
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Just noticed
WH 1/3 1,2,3 365 1/4 1,2,3,4 |
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I like Black Caviar in this myself,heard he is a fair sort and think the 10/1 is very fair and he will handle the ground today
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Yeah Sint, bit of rain between about 9pm and 11pm, nice sunny morning though.
Both Frankie and Hughes have said that it walks a bit firmer than it rides, which certainly caught me out - the penny not dropping until Blue Bunting out battled them having looked outpaced early in the straight, tough tough filly. The way that they've been finishing suggests that it is comparable to genuinely soft ground, I think it's just getting really cut up and possibly a bit 'false'. Anyhoo, it's Swiss Diva e/w for me in the Nunthorpe, she wont mind the ground being a bit on the dead side and most of these speedsters like to hear their hooves rattle. |