SECRETARIAT STAKES 10-Year-Trends

The Secretariat Stakes is one of three grade 1 races taking place at Arlington Park on Saturday, 13th August. There have been two Irish-trained winners since the turn of the century but this prize has kept in the US far more regularly than the Arlington Million. Horses that ran in the Irish Derby have done extremely well in this race since the turn of the Century.

Trends for the past 10 years below:

Age
Race for 3yos

Weight
Horses carrying 9-0: 2-2-6
Horses carrying 8-11: 2-4-16
Horses carrying 8-9: 2-6-21
Horses carrying 8-7: 3-2-27
Horses carrying 8-4: 1-2-14
Horses carrying 8-9 or more: 6-12-43
Horses carrying 8-7 or less: 4-4-41

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times that season
10 of 10 winners had won a race that season
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last turf start (both exceptions ran in the Irish Derby on last start)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in past 50 days
7 of 10 winners had won over 1M 1½F+ (3 exceptions won over at least 1M)
6 of 8 winners that had previously run in America had won a grade 2 or 3 (2 others were placed in grade 2 Virginia Derby last time)
0 of 10 winners had previous won a grade/group 1

Other Races
Virginia Derby highest placed finisher (Banned): 711262611 (4-2-9)
Palm Beach Stakes highest placed finisher (Newsdad): 711641 (3-0-6)
American Turf Stakes winner (Banned): 13 (1-1-2)
American Derby winner (Willcox Inn): 656417383 (1-1-9)
Coolmore Lexington Stakes winner (Derby Kitten): 1 (1-0-1)
Jefferson Cup Stakes winner (Banned): 73 (0-1-2)
Arlington Classic Stakes winner (Willcox Inn): 37873 (0-1-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Virginia Derby last time, finishing 2131
3 of 10 winners ran in the Colonial Turf, finishing 141
3 of 10 winners ran in the Palm Beach Stakes, finishing 161
3 of 10 winners ran in the Kentucky Derby, finishing 063
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Preakness, finishing 06
2 of 10 winners ran in the Jefferson Cup, finishing 23
2 of 2 winners that had yet to race in USA ran in the Irish Derby last time, finishing 97

Irish Derby
Unusually the Irish Derby winner (Treasure Beach) is set to run in the race this year as the highest finisher from the Irish Derby to run in this since 2001 has been a 7th, however runners who came from the Curragh to run in this have done really well.
Since 2000 five horses have run in Irish Derby & then proceeded to run in this:
2008: 1st Winchester was 7th in Irish Derby, btn 12½L
2007: 1st Shamdinan was 9th in Irish Derby, btn 36L
2004: 3rd Moscow Ballet (btn 4½L in this) was 7th in Irish Derby, btn 11½L
2002: 2nd Jazz Beat (btn a nose in this) was 8th in Irish Derby, btn 19½L
2000: 1st Ciro was 3rd in Irish Derby, btn 10½L
Considering how well horses that have been well beaten in the Irish Derby have done in this race in past 10 years, it bodes well for the chances of 2011 Irish Derby winner, Treasure Beach.

Trainers
North American trained runners: 9-10-62
Irish-trained runners: 1-4-13
British-trained runners: 0-2-7
French-trained: 0-0-2
9 of 10 winners were trained in America, though they have represented almost 74% of the total runners.
William Mott (1-0-5) trained the winner in 2005 and is the only trainer with an entrant to have won it in past 10 years.
Aidan O’Brien (0-3-7) won the race in 2000 with Ciro and in the past 10 runnings he has filled the runners-up spot on 3 occasions. None of his 7 representatives have finished outside the first 4.

Price
8 of 10 winners (last 7) came from the first 4 in the betting
The last 7 winners were all sent off shorter than 8/1. The longest priced winner since 2001 was Kicken Kris at 15/1 in 2003.
Favourites (3-3-10) have won just 3 of the last 10 (all odds-on winners) and show a level stakes loss of 5.10 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Run 4 to 6 times this year
•    Finished in first 3 in a graded race on last turf start
•    Ran in the past 50 days
•    Won over 1M 1½F or further
•    Won a graded/group race
•    American-trained runner that finished in first 3 in Virginia Derby, Colonial Turf Cup and/or Palm Beach Stakes
•    European-trained runner that ran in Irish Derby
•    From first 4 in the betting (no bigger than 8/1)