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tinkler
18 Jul 11 18:44
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Date Joined: 02 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 1,652 | Blogger: tinkler's blog
haweyeythenoo is a cracking handicapper who loves to win and usually gives his all ,added to that he has C/D form. Unfortunately
there are some significant negatives. He's set to carry top weight and isn't a horse built to carry big weights; the ground is likely
to be on the soft side which will make the weight more difficult to carry also 7f is at the limit of his distance range.
If the ground dries out and connections put up a 5lb claimer I'd be interested in backing him. Given he's got top weight and the ground
looks like being on the soft side they may give the race a miss and go for the Stewards cup instead.
western Aristocrat probably needs further but given that they'll go a fast pace has to be respected.
The form of the rest is interlinked and looks impossible to work out
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Report rogerthebutler July 19, 2011 12:39 PM BST
Had a quick butchers at the decs this morning and fancied Leviathan, but can't remember for the life of me why now!

[smiley:crazy][smiley:crazy][smiley:crazy]
Report Facts July 19, 2011 1:37 PM BST
Agree re Hawkeye...if runs must have big chance. Can't see anything else to fancy atm.
Report trev w July 19, 2011 5:58 PM BST
2 e/w bets for me so far..striking spirit @ 20s and castles in the air @ 33s...

need the later to spark back into form....but this meeting has served him well in the past,and back on a winning mark...

SS..ran really well from what turned out to be a bad draw,last time he ran here....and wont mind any more rain.
Report town moor July 19, 2011 6:05 PM BST
Our jonathan for me.
Report luna bid July 20, 2011 11:49 AM BST
was very disappointed with Our Jonathans run last time out he should have walked all over that particular field but was never in with a shout , this is much much tougher and soft ground is another major negative , I'm loathed to desert him but cant see him winning this !
Report town moor July 20, 2011 12:19 PM BST
He met interference twice at chester and finished up, closing and with plenty left. At ascot previously he was second in his group (poorly placed I thought) having been eased down once his chance had gone. He's won on bottomless ground in france as a two year old so ground isn't an issue. 16/1 is too big.
Report trev w July 20, 2011 1:54 PM BST
fav is out ..so time to take a price if like one....before the markets react...
Report trev w July 20, 2011 2:11 PM BST
nicked the last bit of 50s al muheer....

prices are now going on oddschecker..
Report town moor July 20, 2011 3:09 PM BST
Wouldn't he want quicker ground Trev?
Report trev w July 20, 2011 3:44 PM BST
tbh...TM..its just a cover @ a nice price....as he's alo entered in the 1st race on the card...so might not even run...

without checking...i dont think he's been tried on it much...but does have a couple of places on g/s...it wa more a case of grabbing the price...

i will have a look into those g/s runs..
Report trev w July 20, 2011 3:50 PM BST
his good /soft run were very early in his career....but looking at them..i'm suprised he has not been tried on it more often[smiley:crazy]

dont really know what his breeding points to....
Report town moor July 20, 2011 6:21 PM BST
Thanks Trev.
Report Oasisdreamer July 20, 2011 9:10 PM BST
Trev - I'd be worried about sticky soft ground for Striking Spirit.  Good to firm would suit best or possibly genuine soft ground he can get through.
Report zilzal1 July 21, 2011 12:28 AM BST
OD, bet you had the nark at Newmarket last time???
Report trev w July 21, 2011 1:41 PM BST
OD...i would have to agree with you there...if it was sticky..i dont think he would see out 7f...


still pretty wet down south though....so hopefully it will be loose enough...


not a lot in the race who love a bit of cut...so overpriced still to me...who do you like?
Report Oasisdreamer July 21, 2011 8:08 PM BST
ZZ - Yes Nwmt was a pain especially given the evidence from the previous day suggested a low draw would not be a disadvantage.

Trev - My long list for Sat contains SS plus:

- Castles In the Air - not shown a lot this season but now rated 2lb less than when winning last year, could be a typical Fahey plot a la Brae Hill.

- Both Margason's horses but neither looks that well handicapped.

- Leviathan - looks an improving 4yo and will more than appreciate the stiff 7f (may need further)

A sneaky outsider I fancy is Atlantic Sport but overall given the prize money it's not that strong a race.  Only 24 decs when max field limit is 30, strange the way some races can pan out.  There's nothing that stands out and you'd think it would be contesting graded races by the end of the year, most are pretty exposed types.
Report spothediference July 21, 2011 9:59 PM BST
any1 give the confessor a chance? has run very well on first two runs this season,jockey took him all over the course looking for better ground on 1st run and had worst of the draw in ireland lto,think he could be well in.
Report Beryl July 21, 2011 10:56 PM BST
Spot, I agree 100%.

His trainer also reckons he will enjoy the likely cut in the ground he will experience on Saturday.

Given he was progressive last year, ran a smashing race first time out against in form rivals where he went the long way round (just watch the race!), and was very badly drawn last time over a shorter than ideal distance but still ran with great credit, I think he is really good value.

I will be there on Saturday so I hope he wins.
Report spothediference July 22, 2011 5:27 PM BST
beryl- hopefuly all will go to plan m8.gl
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