Horse Antepost
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Lots of Ascot runners re-opposing here but bookies have Delegator as the 3/1 Fav. That looks like a lay for me. Wins FTO or after a significant break, Regal Parade who he beat at York has not exactly franked the form and imo they should be running Delegator at 10F! Ground is likely to be G/F with settled warm weather forecast for the whole week and I just don't think he will get there in time against this field on faster ground.
Tempted to think Star Witness will win this and will be looking for a drift to 9/1 or so to have a nibble (currently 6 on the books). I am going to have a speculative tenner or so on Winker Watson at 100/1 who ran exceptionally well for a two year absence and will be better suited by the faster ground, and Channon's horses remain in good form.
Tempted to think Star Witness will win this and will be looking for a drift to 9/1 or so to have a nibble (currently 6 on the books). I am going to have a speculative tenner or so on Winker Watson at 100/1 who ran exceptionally well for a two year absence and will be better suited by the faster ground, and Channon's horses remain in good form.
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Just 19 left in from the 57.
Only one winner over 5 in the last 42 odd years. Of the youger generation O'Briens Oracle is interesting at 50/1+. I like horses dropping back in distance and although he was not a prolific 6F winner at 2, his runs over further this year in the irish guineas and in the Jersey, suggest it is worth a go back 1 more furlong. Still think favoured bet is laying Delegator around 7/2. |
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Any clue as to the going?
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ELZAAM for me
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Star Witness surely the play in this race.Looks sure to have everything in his favour,unless the draw is unkind.Think Steve Arnold needs to hold on to him a bit longer this time.Only exceptional 3yo sprinters win this & Bated Breath is certainly not one of those.Elzaam could be.Delegator although he runs well,has never won a group one.Certainly this is his best ever chance.Still value in backing Star Witness each way.
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have a look at delegator's last run - could be called the winner 3f from home - if there is a champion in this field he is the only candidate - finished second to a certain SeaTheStars good enough for me.
anyway good luck to all |
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Star witness ran solidly in the king's stand even though he prefers 6f and I think he probably would've won the golden jubilee on better ground. Having said that, i've noticed most people seem to be putting this delegator in another class to the runners he faced there. So bit hard to call really, I think i'm going back star witness.. but seems a true gamble!
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They intended on sending Delegator sprinting last season but he had minor setbacks and so they changed their plans. I think he is a very good horse and much as I think his odds are skinny, i'd be loathe to lay him at 7/2 tbh.
Isn't there supposed to be lots of rain around this week anyway .. |
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weather forecast is so unreliable these days. original forecast was for no rain this week, now some showers thurs and fri; but there is a ridge of high pressure that could get stuck and keep SE dry all week.
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10 year trends for the July Cup:
Age (Win-Place-Runners) 3yo: 3-4-42 4yo: 3-6-47 5yo: 3-7-35 6yo: 1-0-18 7yo+: 0-3-18 3 to 5 year olds have won 9 of the last 10, though they have represented 77.5% of the total runners in the past 10 years. Horses older than 5 have a poor combined record of 1-3-36. Gender Fillies & mares (2-4-17) have done well in this race recently. They have won 2 of the last 10 runnings from just over 10% of the total runners and over a third of their representatives have made the frame. Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in last 3 starts 7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (all 3 exception were unplaced in a Royal Ascot group 1 last time out) 10 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days 9 of 10 winners had previously won over 6F or 7F (exception was Fleeting Spirit in 2009 whose two previous runs at this trip had been seconds in a group 1 and group 2, both by less than a length) 8 of 10 winners had won a group race (1 exception was 2nd in a group 2 & other was listed winner having first try in a group race) 6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a group 1 (2 of 4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1, other 2 exceptions had finished 5th in group 1) 9 of 10 winners ran at Royal meeting on their last start (3 Kings Stand, 4 Golden Jubilee, 1 Jersey, 1 Queen Anne) Other Races Highest placed finisher in Golden Jubilee (to run in this): 0720016501 (2-1-10) Highest placed finisher in Kings Stand: 2124075002 (1-3-10) Middle Park Stakes winner (Dream Ahead): 1342 (1-2-4) Carnarvon Stakes winner (Elzaam): 019 (1-0-3) Cammidge Trophy winner (Jimmy Styles): 190 (1-0-3) Prix Maurice De Gheest winner (Regal Parade): 8041 (1-0-4) Prix Morny winner (Dream Ahead): 2 (0-1-1) Leisure Stakes winner (Bated Breath): 03 (0-1-2) Abernant Stakes winner (Genki): 0079602 (0-1-7) Chipchase Stakes winner (Genki): 90 (0-0-2) Greenlands Stakes winner (Hitchens): 54 (0-0-2) Duke Of York Stakes winner (Delegator): 006080 (0-0-6) 5 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 23302 4 of 10 winners ran in the Golden Jubilee, finishing 5161 3 of 10 winners ran in the Abernant Stakes, finishing 222 2 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 71 2 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 08 2 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York, finishing 85 Trainers British-trained: 7-16-125 Irish-trained: 2-1-13 French-trained: 1-0-7 Australian-trained: 0-2-9 Other: 0-1-7 Aidan O’Brien (2-1-12) has trained the winner 3 times in past 12 years (1999, 2001 & 2010). Dandy Nicholls (1-1-9) saddled the 1-2 in 2002 but his 7 runners since have all been unplaced. Australian-based trainers (0-2-9) have had plenty of success in the Royal Ascot sprints in the past 10 years; however their 9 runners in this race since 2001 have produced 0 winners and just 2 placed finishers despite the fact they have saddled the favourite in 4 of the 6 years they have had a runner. Draw (stats based on new stall ordering) Horses drawn in bottom 5 stalls: 6-9-50 Horses drawn in the middle: 3-6-60 Horses drawn in top 5 stalls: 1-5-50 There has been a definite bias to be drawn low with 6 of the last 7 winners coming from stall 7 or lower. Price 8 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting Not a particularly strong trends race as far as prices go with 5 of the last 10 winners going off at double-figure odds. Favourites (3-2-11) have a fair record in this race having won 3 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 1.50. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: • Aged 3 to 5 • Mares do well • Ran in last 30 days • Finished in first 3 last time (or unplaced in an Ascot group 1) • Finished in first 6 in Golden Jubilee and/or King’s Stand • Placed in the Abernant Stakes • Won a group race • Finished in the first 2 in a group 1 • Won over 6F or 7F • Drawn low (ideally in stalls 1 to 7) • Trained in Europe |
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Delegator looks underpriced to me and if they get plenty of rain won't run. If it comes up quick I'd
give Bated Breath one more chance. If it comes up genuine soft surely Dream Ahead is the one to be on, he looked in great cond at Ascot but didn't like the track or dist. A straight 6f on soft would make him difficult to beat. |
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One horse seemed on ratings at least to have run its best ever race and actually improved by about a stone and a bit on its last ever run.
The horse would very much like the extra rain and has some of the best form in the race anyway. Amazingly in my view he is still available at 16/1. I'm not saying he'll win. I am very useless at picking the winner of sprints. However Monsieur Chevalier looks good value to me, especially compared to the horses he seemed to beat fair and square when second at Ascot. |
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Bin Suroor was on record before Delegator won last time that he would almost certainly need the run, that he still won suggests that his class got him through, so if Bin Suroor is to be believed then the horse will strip much fitter this time so his price looks about right to me.
Dream Ahead is interesting and we can assume he wasn't fully tuned up for his return at Ascot so if he's trained on he'd be a danger to all. At much bigger odds around 20/1 I quite like the look of Genki, I know he only won narrowly last time but travelled like a dream through the race admittedly Regal Parade was probably below par, horse seems versatile as regards ground conditions but if it comes up on the soft side it'll suit him more than would many of the others, looking at the forecast though it doesn't look too bad, worth an ew shot at the odds, presuming he takes part of course?. |
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Fact is that Regal Parade at 50/1 on here is well overpriced. Delegator only just got there at York and Nichols horses were really not in form then. RP class nearly won him the race. Nichols horses are now in better shape and there looks an obvious disparity between 7/2 and 50/1 (although perhaps they are not going to run him, hence the high odds).
I still have a feeling about Delegator being an animal that runs well when fresh and I am not sure 60 days will be a big enough break, regardless of whatever is coming out from SBS. |
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AnnMarie O'Brien: Oracle will run in the July Cup in Newmarket on Saturday, Colm O Donoghue takes the ride.
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With the ground likely to be fast Bated Breath and Star witness look the most likely winners.Having said
that both had hard races on soft ground . I used to think you needed a horse that would get 7f to win this because of the stiff uphill climb to the finish but in recent years 5f horses like fleeting spirit have won it. Why its changed I don't know. |
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I have Star Witness backed at 9 and 10 AP, just layed it off at 7 so im free rolling now. At the end of the day Star Witness is one of our 3rd rate Aussie horses so im not totally confident it can pi$$ in with a win here, im just betting for patriotic sake on this one.
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If more rain comes dream ahead is looking good,does any one know why w buick is replaced by hayley?
Not saying it's a negative,just interested. |
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I really like Dream Ahead.
Comfortable winner of Prix Morny (good ground), runaway winner of Middle Park Stakes (soft ground), both 6f furlong trips just like Saturday's July Cup. Everybody knows the level of form this horse achieved at two. Flopped in the race dubbed the 2yo race of the century behind Frankel, no convincing reason for that below par effort. But he is forgiven because it was a really hot race with Frankel, Saammid and Roderic O'Connor all involved and it came at the end of season that had already contained three really good wins. Skipped all three Guineas because of the ground but eventually made debut in St. James Palace over a mile. Made an impression for a moment as the held up horses closed in on Frankel, but slowed inside final furlong and eventually eased down. Probably needed the run and it's reasonable to think the mile was too far. Back in sprint company (3/3 over 6f), and the weather forecasts are indicating he may just get the rain he requires. Looks a very good bet to me at anything above 10/1. Plus, Hayley Turner may not get a ride in a Group One like this for a long time. All set up for a fairytale result in my opinion, and I mean how can you not want the gorgeous Hayley to win a Group One: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BO5MMo18fDA. Jockeys, aside, 10/1 is far too big especially if the rain comes. |
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Think I read that Buick is retained to ride something for Gosden in the John Smiths Cup.
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Thanks syt,agree with your assesment,dr ahead 12/1,some books.
Wonder how long before everyone cottons on!!!?? |
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SYT, think his run in the Dewhurst came a bit too soon for him personally. It was only 2 weeks after his romp on Soft.
3yo's have a good record in this race dont they ? |
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Star Witness is a good lay here!Australia produced a good horse two years ago in England,Scenic Shot.He went into the July Cup with 3 Group 1 wins in that year and he couldn't do it.
Star Witness had to travel over there and then had two gut busters in four days and now another freshen up.In the last furlong going uphill at Newmarket he'll be hoisting the white flag. |
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So after that 6f hcap today (14-15-16-12) is it likely to be high draw bias in this?
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Really fancy dream ahead, but hayley turner riding puts me off big time
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it does me too but she does have a good strike for him, 18%.
Simcock seems confident anyway so we'll just have to see. |
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Jeez lads, don't be put off by Hayley riding! I'm delighted she's landed the ride on Dream Ahead in such a big race. It's all set up for a fairytale result, and if the horse is good enough, Hayley sure will be too.....
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What is the track like today? Any rain?
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 get in.well done all. DA did that easy peasy! |
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wd SYT.
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If you had listened to Simcock yesterday, then he gave how he
was thinking, he said that a jockeys first group one has to come somewhere, very well done Haley and Haley's comet. |
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Very good horse but what an outstanding ride from Hayley!
 She deserves many more rides in Group Ones. |
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Thanks Sint.
WD backers. |
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Hayley Turner, the first woman jockey to ride an outright Group 1 race winner, well done to here BTW.
......5 years behind us Aussies on this front BTW.[;)] |
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Lots of the women in Aus are likes blokes though tbf.
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Bit of a surprise to see Dream Ahead winning on genuine Good to Firm ground. I had him down as a soft or slow
side of good horse. Given the way he travelled today you could make a strong case for him in the Nunthorpe and a race like the Prix de labbaye would be perfect; Marchond d'or did the double and Dream ahead looks to have more pace. He's no soft groung specialist thats for sure. |
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Tinkler, isn't that because of journalists writing their views
rather than us forming our own opinions, the latest criticism is about the time of the race, VERY slow according to journalists, yet the time was slower than standard by 0.46 secs and still faster than ANY other horse on the same card as regards standard. In fact the next fastest was 0.55 secs slower than standard and Haley was looking for an opening at least 1/2 a furlong out and if the opening had come at that time the winner would have won by more than 1/2 length. |
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Sorry the time was 0.55 secs slower than Dream Ahead's standard
time , so in actual fact was 1.01 secs slower than standard. |
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Bazaar, they mean slow for the class of race, which it was. I reckon the first 6 furlongs was a bit slower than the rest of the course, but even so, it was a pretty poor time for a Group 1. The top sprinters have been garbage for a few years now, imo.
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* Sorry, bazzar, and should've said last 6 furlongs.
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