YORK SAT 9TH JULY - JOHN SMITHS CUP

you need one totally unexposed,basically if you think its got a good chance based on its form - then it cant win - you want one that screams no chance

Have you something in mind CUTH?

Trends are dependent on the weather!
On a fast surface you would be looking for something with 11 runs or less:
Wigmore Hall - 7 prev runs
Sirvino - 8 prev runs
Fairmile - 11 prev runs
Mullins Bay - 5 prev runs
Far Lane - 11 prev runs
Foreign Affairs - 5 prev runs

But on Good (g/s) or softer:
Flying Clarets - 37 Prev runs
Charlie Tokyo - 20 prev runs
Arcalis - 16 prev runs
Vintage Premium - 31 prev runs

At the moment, assuming fastish ground (no guarantee)I would think Slumber and Beachfire would be the two to concentrate on as they both hit the fast ground trends of recording their best RPR last time out & having won at 10f.
That's hardly a bold statement though considering they are 2nd & 3rd in the market at the moment.

Has there been the 5 day acceptors yet?

Yes...but still 43 left in.

Weather forecast for York is not so good for the rest of the week, so I would imagine it could err to G/S by Saturday.

(I think CUTH's cryptic clue was for Tartan Gigha which has come out).

Thanks TRUSTY.

That's hardly a bold statement though considering they are 2nd & 3rd in the market at the moment.

That's OK with past winner prices at
3yo 8/11f,
4yo's 5/4f, evsf, 4/1, 4/1, 5/4f, 25/1 (dodgy year fills 1st and 2nd) 10/1 (a grp 1 horse), 15/2,
5yo's 2/1f, 10/3f, 11/2f, 16/1,
6yo's 8/1,11/2,7/2
7yo 10/3f

Apologies those are the Listed hcp Race winners prices.

Their listing it as Good but the going stick reading suggests its already on the soft side if they get any
more rain the soft ground horses will have the advantage and the likes of Green Destiny and Modun will
be at a disadvantage.

They've received very little rain and look unlikely to get much now pre race.
I fancy Modun ,he got stuck in the mud at Ascot . Track and ground ideal plus decent draw 9/1 is a fair price.

Surely Kings Gambit is too big, beaten a short hd in the race last year off 105 by Wigmore Hall to whom he was giving 18lbs, Wigmore Hall was 2nd in the Arlington Million 2 runs later. Kings Gambit runs off 6lbs higher today but has Dale Swift taking off 5lbs (and you need a claimer on your horse in this looking at the last 5 years. Placed on all 3 runs at the track and is a recent group winner. Rarely out of the frame over 1m2f, can forgive poor run over too far in the Hardwicke last time

I quite like Lost in the Moment for this.

Show a good level of form his last couple of runs but crucially Godolphin seem to to coming into a bit of form. Mickael Barzalona is on fire atm too and cut in the ground should be a plus for this Danehill Dancer colt.
14/1 seems more than fair to me

York Result
12 May 1998
« 3:10 » Tattersalls MUSIADORA Fillies' Stakes (Class A) Showcase Race (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) (1m2f85y) 1m2½f Good
£27,500.00, £9,500.00, £4,550.00, £1,850.00

RESULT RATE RACE Hide all comments in running Show all pedigrees
      HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR RATED   
 
« 1 1   Bahr 6/4  3 8-8  Saeed Bin Suroor  — 69 108 — »
ch m Generous (IRE) - Lady Of The Sea (Mill Reef) Frankie Dettori
  Chased leader, challenged 2f out, soon led, ran on well.



Result
14 Jun 2005 YORK
« 3:45 » St James's Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) (Class 1) (3yo) 1m Good To Firm
£130,500.00, £49,500.00, £24,750.00, £11,250.00, £5,625.00, £3,375.00

WATCH RACE - 20p
RESULT RATE RACE Hide all comments in running Show all pedigrees
      HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR RATED   
 
« 1 2   Shamardal (USA) 7/4F  3 9-0  Saeed Bin Suroor  123 126 127 — 
b h Giant's Causeway (USA) - Helsinki (Machiavellian) Kerrin McEvoy
  Made all, quickened 3f out, clear 2f out, readily (tchd 13-8, 15-8 in a place

like him too but will the blinkers have the same effect?

I may be going slightly bonkers, with a big thought for a horse with 1 win in 23, but the more I was the replays of MOYENNE CORNICHE the more I like him for this, and definitely in the first four.  Irish apprentice over to ride him, travels really well in 1M 4F+ races this season, now stepping back to where is breeding suggests he should be - 1M 2F+.  Trainer is hot, and some of the favs are poorly drawn.  As I said, may be going mad, hoping its something I am seeing, thats based on todays reality!