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Be good to see the decs tomorrow and I note that B3p have been telling us how this is won by a progressive 4 year old. Racecaller would love the stats if you have them?
I am having an early interest in a couple of the older buys:-
Halicarnassus @ 25/1
Dansili Dancer @ 20/1 both with billies.
Channon's horses have been running particularly well recently and 97 is a fair mark. Bowman booked (assuming Montaff does not run at Sandown) who seems to get hat bit extra out imo.
Dansili Dancer very good chance on old form off just 89. 8th two years ago off 102 (when hampered) having won it the previous year off 95. Trainer reports is pretty encouraging:-
"Clive Cox is confident a return to Haydock can yield a return to form for Dansili Dancer as he goes in search of a second victory in the race.
The nine-year-old won the prize in 2007 and won another valuable handicap at the track a year earlier.
Recent results have not been so inspiring, but as a consequence, he is now feasibly weighted on his old form.
"He had two very good runs in succession on the all-weather, dead heating with Mastery at Kempton before finishing second in the Winter Derby at Lingfield. That confirmed his well being," said Cox.
"They were two amazing runs and maybe he hasn't done as well back on the turf since, but things just haven't fallen right for him.
"He doesn't quite get home over the stiff mile and a half at Ascot and he likes Haydock much better.
"He has a proven track record and he has a nice weight. His current handicap mark captures the imagination. Hopefully he'll run well."
I am having an early interest in a couple of the older buys:-
Halicarnassus @ 25/1
Dansili Dancer @ 20/1 both with billies.
Channon's horses have been running particularly well recently and 97 is a fair mark. Bowman booked (assuming Montaff does not run at Sandown) who seems to get hat bit extra out imo.
Dansili Dancer very good chance on old form off just 89. 8th two years ago off 102 (when hampered) having won it the previous year off 95. Trainer reports is pretty encouraging:-
"Clive Cox is confident a return to Haydock can yield a return to form for Dansili Dancer as he goes in search of a second victory in the race.
The nine-year-old won the prize in 2007 and won another valuable handicap at the track a year earlier.
Recent results have not been so inspiring, but as a consequence, he is now feasibly weighted on his old form.
"He had two very good runs in succession on the all-weather, dead heating with Mastery at Kempton before finishing second in the Winter Derby at Lingfield. That confirmed his well being," said Cox.
"They were two amazing runs and maybe he hasn't done as well back on the turf since, but things just haven't fallen right for him.
"He doesn't quite get home over the stiff mile and a half at Ascot and he likes Haydock much better.
"He has a proven track record and he has a nice weight. His current handicap mark captures the imagination. Hopefully he'll run well."
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Is it max 17 runners then?
If so, I would guess Zuider Zee will come out as Buick is booked for Kidnapped for Godolphin.
Not sure who the other one will be but those without declared jocks are Bay Willow, Pipette, Line of Duty & Granston. Let's go for Bay Willow. :-)
If so, I would guess Zuider Zee will come out as Buick is booked for Kidnapped for Godolphin.
Not sure who the other one will be but those without declared jocks are Bay Willow, Pipette, Line of Duty & Granston. Let's go for Bay Willow. :-)
....a lot of M Johnston runners all ridden by SDS as well. Some feat that will be!
Easily in. Fox Chapel out as well. (AP FAV). Interesting that Johnston has put SDS on Bowlders Magic who seems better suited by small fields where he can dominate imo.
If there is a sleeper it could be Channon's other runner who has also been dropping nicely in the weights.
AP. Dansili Dancer 1pt e/w 20/1 Billies
AP. Halicarnasus 0.5pt e/w 25/1 Billies
R4. Dansili Dancer 1pt e/w 18/1 bet3p
R4. Very Good Day 1pt e/w 33/1 bet3p
Good luck me :-)
If there is a sleeper it could be Channon's other runner who has also been dropping nicely in the weights.
AP. Dansili Dancer 1pt e/w 20/1 Billies
AP. Halicarnasus 0.5pt e/w 25/1 Billies
R4. Dansili Dancer 1pt e/w 18/1 bet3p
R4. Very Good Day 1pt e/w 33/1 bet3p
Good luck me :-)
I was waiting for racecaller to put up the stats! This could be a stats buster then, I hope.
Channon is absolutely flying 3 more winners yesterday.
Top up:-
Very Good Day 33/1 Billies & B3p 1/2pt E/W.
Top up:-
Very Good Day 33/1 Billies & B3p 1/2pt E/W.
Trusty -Here's Racacallers stuff
OLD NEWTON CUP TRENDS 2011
29/06/2011 by racecaller
The Bet365 Old Newton Cup is a 1M 4F class 2 handicap which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 2nd June. The last 10 winners have all been aged 4 or 5 and Luca Cumani & Clive Cox have been the trainers to follow recently, bagging 5 of the last 7 runnings.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-2-4
4yo: 7-6-70
5yo: 3-6-35
6yo: 0-3-19
7yo+: 0-4-22
The last 10 winners have been aged 4 or 5, but that age group has accounted for 70% of the total runners.
Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-24
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-9-41
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-6-48
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-5-37
8 of 10 winners carried between 8-8 and 9-3
Top weight: 00090200053 (0-2-11)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 1-5-33
Horses rated 90 to 99: 6-13-71
Horses rated 89 or less: 3-5-46
The last 8 winners were officially rated 89 to 102
Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run 1 to 4 times that season
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had had 6 to 16 career starts
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in 12 or fewer handicaps
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had won 3 or fewer handicaps
3 of 10 winners had won at Haydock (6 others were having first course start and other was 4th in previous season's Newton Cup)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
9 of 10 winners had won on flat at no higher than class 3
Other Races
Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes winner (Fox Hunt): 8265 (0-1-4)
Countrywide Freight Stakes winner (Line Of Duty): 504 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of Edinburgh last time, finishing 726
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Buttonhook Handicap, finishing 61
4 of 10 winners ran in a handicap at the Dante meeting, finishing 7906
Trainers
Luca Cumani (3-2-6) has gained 3 winners and 2 places from his 6 runners In this race since 2001.
Clive Cox (2-0-3) has trained 2 of the last 4 winners of this race.
Mark Johnston (0-0-13) has a very poor record in this race, having seen all 13 of his runners in the past 10 years finish out of the places.
Draw
Horses drawn top 5 stalls: 5-6-50
Horses drawn middle stalls: 2-2-50
Horses drawn bottom 5 stalls: 3-15-50
It has been preferable to be drawn in the top or bottom 5 stalls.
Racing Style
9 of 10 winners either raced in midfield or with leaders
This has not been a race where you want to concede too much ground, so horses that are kept closer to the pace are preferred.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1
No major trend on the prices.
Favourites (2-5-14) have won the race twice in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5
· Carrying 8-8 to 9-3
· Officially rated 89 to 102
· Run in 12 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 3)
· Won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
· Won at no higher than class 3 level
· Ran 1 to 4 times in 2011
· Ran in Duke Of Edinburgh and/or a handicap at Dante meeting
· Course winner (or having first run at Haydock)
· Drawn in top or bottom 5 stalls
· Trained by Luca Cumani or Clive Cox
· Avoid hold-up horses
OLD NEWTON CUP TRENDS 2011
29/06/2011 by racecaller
The Bet365 Old Newton Cup is a 1M 4F class 2 handicap which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 2nd June. The last 10 winners have all been aged 4 or 5 and Luca Cumani & Clive Cox have been the trainers to follow recently, bagging 5 of the last 7 runnings.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-2-4
4yo: 7-6-70
5yo: 3-6-35
6yo: 0-3-19
7yo+: 0-4-22
The last 10 winners have been aged 4 or 5, but that age group has accounted for 70% of the total runners.
Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-24
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-9-41
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-6-48
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-5-37
8 of 10 winners carried between 8-8 and 9-3
Top weight: 00090200053 (0-2-11)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 1-5-33
Horses rated 90 to 99: 6-13-71
Horses rated 89 or less: 3-5-46
The last 8 winners were officially rated 89 to 102
Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run 1 to 4 times that season
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had had 6 to 16 career starts
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in 12 or fewer handicaps
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had won 3 or fewer handicaps
3 of 10 winners had won at Haydock (6 others were having first course start and other was 4th in previous season's Newton Cup)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
9 of 10 winners had won on flat at no higher than class 3
Other Races
Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes winner (Fox Hunt): 8265 (0-1-4)
Countrywide Freight Stakes winner (Line Of Duty): 504 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of Edinburgh last time, finishing 726
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Buttonhook Handicap, finishing 61
4 of 10 winners ran in a handicap at the Dante meeting, finishing 7906
Trainers
Luca Cumani (3-2-6) has gained 3 winners and 2 places from his 6 runners In this race since 2001.
Clive Cox (2-0-3) has trained 2 of the last 4 winners of this race.
Mark Johnston (0-0-13) has a very poor record in this race, having seen all 13 of his runners in the past 10 years finish out of the places.
Draw
Horses drawn top 5 stalls: 5-6-50
Horses drawn middle stalls: 2-2-50
Horses drawn bottom 5 stalls: 3-15-50
It has been preferable to be drawn in the top or bottom 5 stalls.
Racing Style
9 of 10 winners either raced in midfield or with leaders
This has not been a race where you want to concede too much ground, so horses that are kept closer to the pace are preferred.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1
No major trend on the prices.
Favourites (2-5-14) have won the race twice in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5
· Carrying 8-8 to 9-3
· Officially rated 89 to 102
· Run in 12 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 3)
· Won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
· Won at no higher than class 3 level
· Ran 1 to 4 times in 2011
· Ran in Duke Of Edinburgh and/or a handicap at Dante meeting
· Course winner (or having first run at Haydock)
· Drawn in top or bottom 5 stalls
· Trained by Luca Cumani or Clive Cox
· Avoid hold-up horses
Here's mine.
I have had to do a resume against each runner to sort myself out as some stats can be suspect.
The final table consisted of headers
Won 10.5f, 11f, 12f, or 13f 100% absolute
Last run over 12f 80%
Won Haydock or Chester 50%
Ran in High Value Race 85%
Won a race May/June 95%
Summary of Key Points HAYDOCK Newton cup Hcp 11.5 fur Class B
22 years since 1988 but 20 years for form stats.
AGE
3yo = 1 win
4yo = 15 wins
5yo = 5 wins
6yo = 2 wins
From 1990 only three winners ran a race outside G.B.
Apprentice claim jockeys have managed to gain three 2nd placings in Newton but have never won. (approx 40 rides)
6yo have won current year B grade (both lightly raced recent yrs)
Royal Ascot runners have provided 7 winners. Key race Duke of Edinburgh Hcp
B grade wins were all prev season for 4 & 5yo.
10 winners won at Haydock or Chester (North west)50%
Generally 4yo winners of Newton Cup won their maiden over longer distances 10f to14f (10 out of 12)
16 won their maiden by 5th start
Most winners ran over 12f in current season
All previous 20 winners won a race over either/ and 11f or 12f
19 of last 20 winners had won a race in either /and May & June months
Most winners ran in Class 2 Hcp over 12 fur latest run (15)
Only two winners (Alkaseed & Red Merlin, both 4yo improvers) had not run in high value race.
I have had to do a resume against each runner to sort myself out as some stats can be suspect.
The final table consisted of headers
Won 10.5f, 11f, 12f, or 13f 100% absolute
Last run over 12f 80%
Won Haydock or Chester 50%
Ran in High Value Race 85%
Won a race May/June 95%
Summary of Key Points HAYDOCK Newton cup Hcp 11.5 fur Class B
22 years since 1988 but 20 years for form stats.
AGE
3yo = 1 win
4yo = 15 wins
5yo = 5 wins
6yo = 2 wins
From 1990 only three winners ran a race outside G.B.
Apprentice claim jockeys have managed to gain three 2nd placings in Newton but have never won. (approx 40 rides)
6yo have won current year B grade (both lightly raced recent yrs)
Royal Ascot runners have provided 7 winners. Key race Duke of Edinburgh Hcp
B grade wins were all prev season for 4 & 5yo.
10 winners won at Haydock or Chester (North west)50%
Generally 4yo winners of Newton Cup won their maiden over longer distances 10f to14f (10 out of 12)
16 won their maiden by 5th start
Most winners ran over 12f in current season
All previous 20 winners won a race over either/ and 11f or 12f
19 of last 20 winners had won a race in either /and May & June months
Most winners ran in Class 2 Hcp over 12 fur latest run (15)
Only two winners (Alkaseed & Red Merlin, both 4yo improvers) had not run in high value race.
I'm on Sharaayeen @ 14/1 with WH. Like run before last...forgive last run as ground much too soft at Acot on round course imo. Comparatively well handicapped improver...
Anybody else?
Anybody else?
Unfortuately that is the main downside for me but does win the odd race
Have also had ew bet on Bowdlers Magic @25/1 good back form and unsuited by soft ground last time out (Thanks blackcat)[;)]
SHARAAYEEN 4yo
Positive – Ran At Royal Ascot Latest
Negatives – Not won at key track
Not won in May/June months
Not win until 6th race as 3yo
Not won further than 10f
Positive – Ran At Royal Ascot Latest
Negatives – Not won at key track
Not won in May/June months
Not win until 6th race as 3yo
Not won further than 10f
The only one of those that might be a problem is 'not won further than 10f'
The only one of those that might be a problem is 'not won further than 10f'
got chinned a shd by a hoss now rated 116 or so. id forgive him that
morning plat,and trusty,this looks the easiest for the straight tricast play.
fav looks decent,halican - aiming for john smiths or goodwood
fav looks decent,halican - aiming for john smiths or goodwood
morning...happy with the winner tbh :-0
done very good day and halli in the forecast and added dansili for the tricast.
done very good day and halli in the forecast and added dansili for the tricast.
Money for War Poet and Bowdlers Music (odds checker market movers)
Can understand the latter because Pricewise tip buy why War Poet?
Only 5 horses in last 20 odd years have won with single figure runs and lowest was 6 - and that had finished 2nd in 37k race.
War Poet has only run in 4k races.
It will be a clever plot if it does win!
Can understand the latter because Pricewise tip buy why War Poet?
Only 5 horses in last 20 odd years have won with single figure runs and lowest was 6 - and that had finished 2nd in 37k race.
War Poet has only run in 4k races.
It will be a clever plot if it does win!
Thanks Trusty. That answers the problem of whether to back it as a saver (No).
mortals - 1)mount athos,sorry its fav ,but a winner is a winner
2)kidnapped
3)dansili dancer
alt
1)athos
2)kid
3)porgy
this athos is a group horse - pile in.
2)kidnapped
3)dansili dancer
alt
1)athos
2)kid
3)porgy
this athos is a group horse - pile in.
well done trusty - i dont like it when everyone as spotted it,i mean jermy k even picked it.
Good Pick Trusty.
The second group winner to win Newton in last 25 years.
Key To My Heart won when 6yo having won Grp 2 over 14f but came back after a year off.
Montaff a group horse ran well when 2nd last week but generally the group horses are too highly rated in Official Ratings to win these hcps.
In fairness Halicarnassus had won Grp 3 over 11f at Haydock and had run well in all hcp races this year.
This was his first hcp win in UK.
With 67 runs he was way ahead of Hannibal Lad the highest number of runs (40 runs and 5yo when won) and with prize money in high value race 227k in group 2 was way above Roushayd (1988) who had won 64k race.
The second group winner to win Newton in last 25 years.
Key To My Heart won when 6yo having won Grp 2 over 14f but came back after a year off.
Montaff a group horse ran well when 2nd last week but generally the group horses are too highly rated in Official Ratings to win these hcps.
In fairness Halicarnassus had won Grp 3 over 11f at Haydock and had run well in all hcp races this year.
This was his first hcp win in UK.
With 67 runs he was way ahead of Hannibal Lad the highest number of runs (40 runs and 5yo when won) and with prize money in high value race 227k in group 2 was way above Roushayd (1988) who had won 64k race.
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