The Wokingham

Victoire De Lyphar

vk - not very professional imo

Sorry to hear that, VK.
FWIW my early short list is Nasri, Gramercy & Deacon Blues (who, rather sadly, looks almost certain to be 'Pricewised' based on Tom's previous comments and that fact that the 8/1 that was available has all but disappeared).
Good luck to anyone playing in this.

Draw Positions of first 3 home in previous years:

2010: 31,20,28
2009: 4,5,7
2008: 1,27,6
2007: 2,6,7,9
2006: 23,28,21
2005: 6,18,15
2004: 1,24,20

Wouldn't dream of being dogmatic about it, but the middle draws of Hoof It (13), Deacon Blues (11), and Pastoral Player (15) who've all been prominent in the market for this, don't look too favourable based on the above.

I understand the problem with a middle draw but i just keep going back to Cheverton (drawn 12).He is at least 1 horse in the field who will love the ground and with a very obvious difficult race to be to confident,i'll certainly be having a few shillings on at 33/1 and 5 places.good luck everyone

Waffle 25/1

Like Gramercy draw? & Nasri price?

You been supping VK?

Sorry also backed Barney McGrew E/W 50/1 5 places simply on his draw

Agree with 180

I usually start the analysis of these races with draw and pace analysis and go from there, but I think it's a question of just keeping it simple and seeing whose going to like the ground?

Cheveton

...but if you insist on complicating it, he'll get a nice tow off Victoire De Lyphar, two stalls away!

[;)]

I've taken the 33/1 Fathsta.

He ran well enough here back in May behind Hawkeye and todays winner Manassas on firm ground. He has only once been out of the first four when soft has been in the discription - a career best coming in a large field h'cap over 6f on soft ground at York. The draw concerns me but the price takes care of that imo.

Given the doubts over the draw I think it'd be daft not to back something drawn high though and Nasri @ 20/1 looks fair.

Good luck.

Nasri for me. Backed him lto in the Victoria Cup, and him and Excellent Guest were the last two horses off the bridle. Nasri raced prominently but he still plugged on for a place, whereas EG dropped back to finish 10th. The drop back in trip should suit and although the ground is an unknown, he does have the same sire as Horseradish and Penitent who loved the cut in the ground. Manassass boosted the form nicely today aswell.

...and his name has nothing to do with it of course!

[;)]

Ive been on Lui Rei since just after Epsom, not holding my breath though as ive only ever backed one winner of the bloody race(Caprichio) in god knows how many tries


Mind you i did get 33-1 about it

I only managed the 28-1 (EW first 5) on Fathsta and I agree that soft going is the key here – if only to turn this 6f sprint into a real test where Fathsta’s 7f form can come to his aid.

On the pace front, I don't suppose anyone has noticed that Masamah who is in the same ownership (Dr Marwan Koukash) as Fathsta (drawn 5)  is only drawn 2 stalls away in stall 7. Masamah has been known to front run and is much better over 5f and is seriously drifting on Betfair. It isn’t beyond on realms of possibility that Masamah will be used to ensure a strong pace for the low numbers, and Fathsta, to follow.

On a trading front in the 11 races where the RP has rated the going Soft or GS, in 10 of them Fathsta was able to trade at less than Half it’s BF starting price (or SP for pre BF sp races). Most were of course lower grade but 4 were class 2 races, so there always some leeway to double your bet and trade out half the odds for a Free bet – at the risk of losing double our stake though.

Final Sels

Waffle 25/1
Lui Rei 18/1
Nasri 18/1
Barney McGrew 50/1
Gramercy E/W 25/1

Prime Defender is the proven class horse in the race. Looks weighted to go well at 50/1?