Horse Antepost
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At the minute its priced up Golden Lilac 15/8 Galikova 9/4 anybody have a strong view on which will come out on top?
I want to weigh into Golden Lilac but having watched all the replays its looking a little closer than i thought,both seem to be 2 of the best fillys to come out of france in the last few years,was hugely impressed with Golden winning the french 1000 easily under a hands an heels ride by 3 lengths,but was also equally impressed with Galikova last time out winning a group 3 in the same fashion over wavering who then went on to win a group 1 next time out,i dont have any issues with Golden stepping upto 10f as she will get 12f in time and the strong pace set by Galikovas pacemaker will suit Golden also
I want to weigh into Golden Lilac but having watched all the replays its looking a little closer than i thought,both seem to be 2 of the best fillys to come out of france in the last few years,was hugely impressed with Golden winning the french 1000 easily under a hands an heels ride by 3 lengths,but was also equally impressed with Galikova last time out winning a group 3 in the same fashion over wavering who then went on to win a group 1 next time out,i dont have any issues with Golden stepping upto 10f as she will get 12f in time and the strong pace set by Galikovas pacemaker will suit Golden also
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Galikova for me.
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I suspect Galikova will prove the stronger stayer and if she wins today would be very interesting for the Arc.
However the other filly should get the trip okay and was very impressive last time - it looks like a very hot race indeed. |
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I have put my money down now a couple of hours ago on Golden Lilac at 15/8,it will take an extremely high class filly to beat her and i am hoping the Galikova just falls short of that tomorrow
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galikova looks superb and will be very hard to beat
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Golden Lilac is a good bet at 15/8. She's never actually been involved in a fast run race, which would normally put me off, but judging by the manner of her latest win I'm pretty sure she's at least as good as an average French Guineas winner. Unlike some, I can't see any worries about the trip so she'll be very hard to beat.
Galikova proved she's trained on last time with an easy win in a decent time. I don't agree with Nick Mordin, though, who rated it an excellent time. I would say his standards for Saint-Cloud must be wrong, as he didn't even give a mention to Pour Moi, who ran a better time than the filly, imo. I think it's possible to get a handle on Galikova's potential at 3 from her run in the Boussac, for me it was a pretty ordinary renewal and unless she's made above average improvement I just don't see her matching Golden Lilac's speed. |
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I have money down on galikova, proven at this distance and with peslier on board
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Why bother trying to split them.....Back them both!!!!
win, place, exactas. |
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There is no skill in that,i would never back 2 horses in the same race as i want maximum profit,assuming i choose correctly that is,i am actually very happy with my bet now,imo Golden Lilac is probably the best 3yo filly in europe over a mile and i see no reason why the 10f will pose any problems,she is quicker than Galikova and speed will win her the race tomorrow
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Galikovas pacemaker needs to do her job properly to make it a true test.
I considered doing what Elg suggested and dutch them both, it seems reasonable, but instead im just going to stay out of it and watch as it is hard to split them. gl all. |
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Golden Lilac bet of the year
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Golden Lilac recorded one of the fastest ever splits for the last 2f at lonchamp and together with the final time I make her her a top class G1 filly. On pedigree, her dosage figs indicate that she will stay 10f. Galikova's figs are tempered by the fact that the official distance last time was 10.5f but the horse started from the same stalls as Pour Moi over 10f.her form has been franked, by a Fabre horse, so Fabre should know where he stands with GL vs Galikova.GL for me with a partial saver on G.
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Golden Lilac looked almighty in the guineas. Got the makings of a really good race. I've went for her with a RFC with Galikova to hopefully cover my stake.
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galikova backed off the boards.
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How is Golden Lilac not favorite...she was exceptional in the 1000. The 2 best Fillies in Europe this season going head to head. Great to see. Can't believe Classic form is not above Galikova romp in a Group 3.
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Hello Money
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cleaned up.
win market, place market, exacta landed. |
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BOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMM
What a filly...I love her. What a change of gear...she blitzed them and was keen again in the run. Galileo 1-2[;)] |
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Will be interesting to see if Mr Fabre aims her for the Arc. I'd think by October she'd get 12f personally. That aside waiting on Banimpire for a nice wee turn today. [:o]
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Nice win for you GL backers
ELG, no skill in that   |
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well done all.
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Took Galikova a while to get going by was really making up ground in the last 1/2 furlong.
The Vermeille could be a really interesting race if those 2 reoppose and maybe Midday, Snow Fairy, Blue Bunting, Wonder of Wonders etc show up too. |
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Sandown
Do you agree that she's looking very tempting for the Arc now? They pretty much ignored the pacemaker today so she still hasn't been involved in a truly run race. It means we still don't know exactly how good she is, but I thought the slow pace actually flattered the others that got so close near the finish. Apart from Pour Moi, the 3yo colts look average. The older horses will have to give her 11lbs and many of them will have had a busy summer campaign. |
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Masterminded
12 Jun 11 12:03 Joined: 24 Jun 08 | Topic/replies: 2,083 | Blogger: Masterminded's blog Golden Lilac bet of the year Why the hell she was that price I will never know. Galikova is a nice horse but should never have been fav. Golden Lilac is a proper champion filly and she is a possible for me in the Arc. Bet of the year landed. |
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Figgis
The possible Arc field is beginning to look very hot indeed and at this stage I wouldn't want to commit a view let alone money but GL is worthy of consideration, I agree as is Galikova. |
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Anybody got a link to the race as I missed it earlier?
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I couldn't have Galikova, she looks of similar ability to Sarafina last year, admittedly that filly ran well to finish 3rd in last year's Arc but I can't see Galikova bettering that. I've taken some of the 16s about GL. As she's been running within herself in some slow paced races I'm sure she'll still be a fresh horse in October, unlike some of the shorted priced older horses.
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http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xj9846_prix-de-diane-2011-golden-lilac-ire-m-guyon-a-fabre-gestut-ammerland_sport
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Cheers for that figgis, my take on the race even with the pacemaker it turned into a typical French sprint finish, there is grounds for thinking Galikova would have a good chance of turning the tables over further and a more stronger run race, Golden Lilac obviously possessing a smarter turn of foot Galikova initially tapped badly for speed but stayed on takingly, as for the others none of them jumped out at me and said back me next time.
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Galikova initially tapped badly for speed but stayed on takingly
I backed her and 3 out I thought she was gonna finish unplaced. For all that the winner is good, it was a mightily impressive run from Galikova to finish so close in the end. Maybe the jockey got after her a fraction late... Maybe they are just two excellent fillies... |
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Yeah I thought Peslier could have been closer to the pacemaker tbh. The jock on the pacemaker kept looking over his shoulder in the first few furlongs to see where Galikova was. That said, i'd take Golden Lilac to beat her again, even over further, as it looks to me like she is running within herself like Figgis said.
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I'm not sure that the form was up to the level to win an Arc and so both fillies would have to improve again to win in October over 12f. Whilst GL got the 10.5f OK you can't be sure that she would improve again for the step up. Her trainer had doubts before the race yesterday and those doubts were reflected in the market.Galikova looked as though she might improve for the step up but she was outpaced 2f out and I'd worry that whilst she might stay she might not be quick enough. Fabre has Pour Moi for the Arc and he might prefer other options for GL.
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Sandown
The bare form is misleading because of the lack of pace in the race, the time was relatively slow. My view is that the winner looked a cut above the others at all stages of the race, a faster pace would've seen her win even more decisively. I can't say she's good enough to win an Arc, but I'm sure she's a better filly than Sarafina and she managed to finish 3rd last year. It all depends how good the Arc is of course, some are better than others and even the ones that look good on paper don't always turn out to be great in reality. It's true that there must be doubts about the trip until she actually tries it, fwiw I think she'll stay. The owner is very keen to have a crack at the Arc and the jockey said he has "no doubts" she'll stay. As long as she remains in good form and wins her prep I think Fabre will run her. |
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Figgis
Maybeyou're right but she'll be 10/1 at least on the day if all the big possibles run,which means its only 4/6 that she gets there if backed at 16's and I don't see the value in that bet. |
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Sandown
You might be right about the price on the day, I steamed in at 15/8 yesterday when I would've been better waiting, so I got that wrong. However, of the older horses currently shorter than her in the betting, Workforce, So You Think and SNA, I will be surprised if they all reach the race still fancied and in top form. Sarafina, so far, looks no better than last year. Of the 3yos, Reliable Man won a decent but hard fought Prix du Jockey Club and Baraan looks the type that will probably always be flattered. I've been a big fan of Pour Moi, aside from an ante post bet on Frankel last year he was my only bet in the Derby, but he ended up having quite a hard race there and it's not a foregone conclusion that he'll be at his best for the Arc. As all the fancied 3yo colts are French I expect some bubbles will be burst when the trials are run. |
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If she is better than Sarafina she would be a very good filly indeed, as Sarafina was undoubtedly unlucky not to have won one Arc already - badly impeded last year - and she looks like she is a bit better again this year and is getting the usual Fench idela Arc prep.
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As good as GL looks,i see no way that she will beat Sarafina if both were to cross paths this year,specially not over 12f
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Sarafina looked very classy last time out. She was nudged out to win.
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