Horse Antepost
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Racecaller trends for the past 10 years of French Derby which takes place at Chantilly on Sunday:
Age
Race for 3yos
Breeding
French bred: 4-7-55
Irish bred: 4-5-51
British bred: 1-6-33
American bred: 1-0-18
German bred: 0-1-4
UAE bred: 0-0-1
10 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
From 2001 to 2004 (when race was run over 1M 4F) 3 of 4 winners were sired by group 1 winner over 1M 4F.
Since 2005 all 6 winners were sired by a horse who had won over no further than 1M 2½F
10 of 10 winners were born before 21st April
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had had 3 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 of 3 exceptions placed in group 1's)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 40 days
8 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+
4 of 10 winners had won at Chantilly (1 exception was placed on only run here, other 5 were having their first course start)
7 of 10 winners ran in Longchamp group or listed race last time
3 of 10 winners ran at Chantilly last time
Other Races
French 2000 Guineas winner (Tin Horse): 1761 (2-0-4)
Horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in French 2000 Guineas: 4310 (1-1-4)
Prix Noailles winner (Grand Vent): 12502 (1-2-5), record since race became 1M 2½F: 502 (0-1-3)
Criterium International winner (Roderic O'Connor): 2100 (1-1-4), record since race became 1M 2½F: 00 (0-0-2)
Prix Djebel winner (Surfrider): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix De Guiche winner (Absolutly Yes): 01754 (1-0-5)
Prix Hocquart winner (Prairie Star): 89362500 (0-2-8)
Prix de Pontarme winner (Sandagiyr): 2 (0-1-1)
Prix La Force winner (Baraan): 070024 (0-1-6)
Prix de Conde winner (Prairie Star): 04 (0-0-2)
Prix De Fontainebleau winner (Glaswegian): 66 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in French 2000 Guineas last time, finishing 121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Avre last time out, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix de Fontainebleu, finishing 43
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Greffulhe, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the Criterium International, finishing 17
Trainers
French-trained runners: 9-14-115
British-trained runners: 1-3-20
Irish-trained runners: 0-2-20
Rest Of Europe: 0-0-7
Alain De Royer-Dupre (2-1-8) and Pascal Bary (2-1-8) have each trained the winner twice in the past 10 years.
Andre Fabre (1-3-18) trained the winner last year while Jean-Claude Rouget (1-1-15) and Jean-Marie Beguigne (1-0-1) have also saddled the winner since 2001.
Elle Lellouche (0-2-10) and Nicolas Clement (0-1-1) both saddled a placed finisher in 2010.
Aidan O’Brien (0-1-19) has a terrible record in the race, gaining just 1 place from 19 runners since 2001. The last Irish-trained winner of this race was Caerleon (Vincent O’Brien) in 1983.
Draw (only counting 2005 to 2010)
When looking at the draw we’ll focus on 6 runnings over current 1M 2½F trip:
Horses drawn 1 to 5: 3-3-30
Horses drawn 6 to 10: 1-2-30
Horses drawn 11 to 15: 1-5-30
Horses drawn 16 or higher: 1-2-21
3 of last 6 winners were drawn 1 to 5
Racing Style
Since this race has been run over 1M 2½F, 5 of 6 winners led or raced prominently early on (exception was settled in mid-division)
Price
6 of 10 winners (last 3) have gone off 12/1 or bigger
No strong trends on prices of winners in this race, though it has not been a race to follow favourites.
Favourites (2-2-11) have won just 2 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 6.14 over past 10 years. 9 of the 10 favourites went off shorter than 3/1 and only 1 won and 2 others got placed.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• By a group 1-winning sire who’d won over no further than 1M 2½F
• Had 3 to 5 career starts (running 2 to 3 times this season)
• Won last time out (or placed in a group 1)
• Ran at Longchamp or Chantilly on latest start
• Finished in first 2 in French 2000 Guineas
• Had run in the past 40 days
• Course winner (or having first run at Chantilly)
• Won over 1M+
• Won a group or listed race
• Tends to race prominently
• Trained in France
• Trained by Pascal Bary or Alain Royer-Dupre
• Avoid favourites
Age
Race for 3yos
Breeding
French bred: 4-7-55
Irish bred: 4-5-51
British bred: 1-6-33
American bred: 1-0-18
German bred: 0-1-4
UAE bred: 0-0-1
10 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
From 2001 to 2004 (when race was run over 1M 4F) 3 of 4 winners were sired by group 1 winner over 1M 4F.
Since 2005 all 6 winners were sired by a horse who had won over no further than 1M 2½F
10 of 10 winners were born before 21st April
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had had 3 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 of 3 exceptions placed in group 1's)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 40 days
8 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+
4 of 10 winners had won at Chantilly (1 exception was placed on only run here, other 5 were having their first course start)
7 of 10 winners ran in Longchamp group or listed race last time
3 of 10 winners ran at Chantilly last time
Other Races
French 2000 Guineas winner (Tin Horse): 1761 (2-0-4)
Horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in French 2000 Guineas: 4310 (1-1-4)
Prix Noailles winner (Grand Vent): 12502 (1-2-5), record since race became 1M 2½F: 502 (0-1-3)
Criterium International winner (Roderic O'Connor): 2100 (1-1-4), record since race became 1M 2½F: 00 (0-0-2)
Prix Djebel winner (Surfrider): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix De Guiche winner (Absolutly Yes): 01754 (1-0-5)
Prix Hocquart winner (Prairie Star): 89362500 (0-2-8)
Prix de Pontarme winner (Sandagiyr): 2 (0-1-1)
Prix La Force winner (Baraan): 070024 (0-1-6)
Prix de Conde winner (Prairie Star): 04 (0-0-2)
Prix De Fontainebleau winner (Glaswegian): 66 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in French 2000 Guineas last time, finishing 121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Avre last time out, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix de Fontainebleu, finishing 43
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Greffulhe, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the Criterium International, finishing 17
Trainers
French-trained runners: 9-14-115
British-trained runners: 1-3-20
Irish-trained runners: 0-2-20
Rest Of Europe: 0-0-7
Alain De Royer-Dupre (2-1-8) and Pascal Bary (2-1-8) have each trained the winner twice in the past 10 years.
Andre Fabre (1-3-18) trained the winner last year while Jean-Claude Rouget (1-1-15) and Jean-Marie Beguigne (1-0-1) have also saddled the winner since 2001.
Elle Lellouche (0-2-10) and Nicolas Clement (0-1-1) both saddled a placed finisher in 2010.
Aidan O’Brien (0-1-19) has a terrible record in the race, gaining just 1 place from 19 runners since 2001. The last Irish-trained winner of this race was Caerleon (Vincent O’Brien) in 1983.
Draw (only counting 2005 to 2010)
When looking at the draw we’ll focus on 6 runnings over current 1M 2½F trip:
Horses drawn 1 to 5: 3-3-30
Horses drawn 6 to 10: 1-2-30
Horses drawn 11 to 15: 1-5-30
Horses drawn 16 or higher: 1-2-21
3 of last 6 winners were drawn 1 to 5
Racing Style
Since this race has been run over 1M 2½F, 5 of 6 winners led or raced prominently early on (exception was settled in mid-division)
Price
6 of 10 winners (last 3) have gone off 12/1 or bigger
No strong trends on prices of winners in this race, though it has not been a race to follow favourites.
Favourites (2-2-11) have won just 2 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 6.14 over past 10 years. 9 of the 10 favourites went off shorter than 3/1 and only 1 won and 2 others got placed.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• By a group 1-winning sire who’d won over no further than 1M 2½F
• Had 3 to 5 career starts (running 2 to 3 times this season)
• Won last time out (or placed in a group 1)
• Ran at Longchamp or Chantilly on latest start
• Finished in first 2 in French 2000 Guineas
• Had run in the past 40 days
• Course winner (or having first run at Chantilly)
• Won over 1M+
• Won a group or listed race
• Tends to race prominently
• Trained in France
• Trained by Pascal Bary or Alain Royer-Dupre
• Avoid favourites
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Replies: 19
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Good work that man!
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Good post RC. Bookies have installed Roderic as 9/2 fav. If he wins i'll move to another planet.
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No chance their
Ryan riding it  |
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Crackerjack King's Italian Derby win looks good with 2nd and 4th finishing 1-2 in a listed race and 3rd winning a group 2 with ease. He's by French Derby winner Sharmadal (who sired last year's winner) and is a half bro to two group 1 winners. He could be very good, 12s is value
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Barann has been heavily supported with almost every firm in the past 24 hours,gone from 8's to 7's to 6's to 5's and into 9/2 it would seem that many people are expecting a huge run
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Looks a very decent and competitive renewal - some formlines tieing in with Pour Moi as well.
I think Tin Horse looks very solid, never runs a bad race, bred to get the trip and if he had sexier connections he'd be favourite so have backed him at around 7/1 and saved on Baraan at 5/1 who I guess is in the 'could be anything' category. |
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Think Bubble Chic is overpriced for all that a list of 2s won't entice many.
Been a graveyard for good class 12f horses since the distance change, Hurricane Run, Montmatre, Behkabad particularly. Interesting thing there being 2 very decent Aga Khan horses effectively prepped here for the GP de Paris; tempers interest for Baraan, for all that he could be very decent. Him and Vadamar were supposed to be the Aga's choice colts this year. The jury is out thre, until tomorrow at leat or maybe even til July. |
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The 9/1 about Casamento with Coral was to big for me to turn down,you can put a line through the guineas form as frankie tried to go crazy fractions with frankle and paid for it,the highest rated horse in the race on 2yo for which is working out very well and the 10f should be made for the horse,must run a huge race for me
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Agree with the form man.
heavily eased by Frankie from 2 furlong marker. 9s way too big. |
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ive place layed roc at 2.3, i still think the 2.5 on offer is a good bet.
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roc will be a sitting duck at he 2f pole and will be passed by most of the field,i cant even have him in the first 8
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Sandagiyr ticks a lot of the boxes and is a biggish price - not convinced the high draw is as big a disadvantage as some would have you believe based on previous years.
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I'm siding with Baraan. Only had a few races and should come on for his last run, in fact he will come on for it. Hopefully they go a respectable gallop at least.
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I've backed Crackerjack King based on his impressive performance last time.
I fear Tin Horse most. |
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Baraan very very unlucky,would have pissesd it but for the start
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Terrible from Ian Bartlett, got the wrong bl00dy horse winning!
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Barran was pretty much level with the winner turning into the straight - I know he maybe used up some energy getting that close but in the end the winner won comfortably so I think they are going a bit overboard about how unlucky Baraan was?
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Your Jokin
Baraan would have hosed up if he had left on level terms Aga Khan must be FUMING |
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No I never joke about betting
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